Agri- Commodities: 9-13/6/25

Monday Grain markets were pulled in opposing directions throughout Week 24, as favorable crop prospects, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. policy developments generated volatile trading. The week opened with a sharp sell-off in corn and wheat, as improved U.S. crop conditions and benign weather forecasts reinforced expectations of ample supplies. Corn and wheat both fell more than 2% on Monday, effectively wiping out prior gains. U.S. crop ratings surprised to the upside, with corn at 71% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. Concurrently, stronger forecasts for Russian and Romanian wheat harvests added further pressure, while China’s surging soybean imports – largely sourced from Brazil – highlighted its continued pivot away from U.S. origin.

Tuesday Tuesday brought more bearish sentiment to wheat, as global weather outlooks remained favorable and buyers hesitated to commit. EU soft wheat exports rose modestly, and Bulgaria’s wheat crop was projected to match or exceed last year’s if good weather persists. A key geopolitical development emerged from London, where the U.S. and China agreed “in principle” to ease export controls, though the deal lacked agricultural purchase commitments. U.S. inflation data released later in the day suggested a potential shift in macroeconomic sentiment, but had limited immediate effect on grain trade.

Wednesday On Wednesday, grains remained range-bound in anticipation of the USDA’s June WASDE report. The absence of any agricultural trade pledges in the new U.S.–China deal was disappointing for markets, especially for soybeans. The June CPI data, however, came in cooler than expected, strengthening the euro and capping the dollar – a development that could support U.S. grain competitiveness abroad. In South America, Argentina’s wheat outlook was slightly trimmed, but sentiment remained positive. Non-commercial positioning also hinted at shifting fund sentiment in European wheat and oilseeds.

Thursday Thursday’s WASDE release proved largely uneventful, leading to further price erosion. However, escalating Middle East tensions after Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities drove oil prices sharply higher, lending support to grains and oilseeds via inflation and energy-cost channels. The EU’s crop body COCERAL issued an upward revision for soft wheat and barley output, although corn forecasts declined. In Brazil, Conab raised both corn and soybean production estimates. U.S. weekly export sales underperformed expectations, highlighting tepid international demand. Friday Markets closed the week on a bullish note. Wheat futures jumped over 3% on Friday amid geopolitical risk and short-covering. Soybeans rallied as soybean oil hit limit up following the Trump administration’s proposed record-high biofuel blending mandate for 2026, which favored domestic production and stirred optimism for soy demand. Funds adjusted their positions accordingly, increasing longs in soybeans and cutting shorts in wheat. Meanwhile, North African demand showed renewed life with Tunisia purchasing 100k tons of milling wheat and Algeria entering the market with a fresh tender.