Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 01-05/07/24
Jul 08, 2024
The week started with wheat prices rebounded over 2%, while corn remained pressured. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 235,000 tons of milling wheat, less than expected. Russian wheat prices fell to $226 per ton FOB. Ukraine’s grain exports rose to 50.8 million metric tons (mmt), but a lower 2024 crop forecast suggests reduced future exports. US export inspections were unimpressive, with corn and soybean conditions holding steady and the winter wheat harvest advancing to 54%.
On Tuesday wheat prices reversed amid a lack of supportive news. Corn initially rallied due to oversold conditions and a USDA flash sale but later gave back gains. The USDA confirmed a corn sale to Colombia, and Jordan canceled its wheat tender due to high prices.
On Wednesday wheat briefly rallied on news of attacks on Russian ports but fell back on improved Russian production forecasts. SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production forecast by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. Tunisia issued new wheat tenders, and Jordan purchased feed barley. Significant fund selling was noted in MATIF milling wheat.
Thursday showed MATIF milling wheat closed higher in low-volume trading. Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 50,000 tons of durum wheat. The USDA attaché in China predicted increased corn demand, while the Czech Republic forecasted a 12% drop in wheat production.
The week ended with strong Grains , led by US wheat futures. French wheat conditions deteriorated, with only 58% rated good/excellent. The projected yield drop suggests the smallest crop since 2016. US wheat export sales were robust, reaching a marketing year high. Slowing US job growth hinted at possible Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
6-10/1 /25 AGRI
Jan 13, 2025
Monday: Grain markets rebounded from Friday's losses, bolstered by a weaker dollar and pre-USDA report positioning. CBOT-denominated prices gained, though MATIF milling wheat remained an outlier. U.S. weekly export inspections showed mixed results, with wheat exceeding expectations while corn and soybeans remained within range. In Argentina, persistent hot and dry conditions continued to pose risks, while Brazil benefited from favorable weather. Kansas winter wheat conditions declined, adding concerns over the domestic crop.
Freight
Freight Recap:
09/01/25
Dec 12, 2024
The Atlantic market began with initial strength due to limited New Year tonnage, but rates flattened as more vessels entered the region. In the south, oversupply led to discounted rates, and forward fixing remained cautious. Spot vessels maintained premiums, but lack of fresh demand in the north and a long tonnage list saw rates ease, favoring charterers. EC South America faced additional pressure from long ballast lists and sub-index equivalent fixtures for early February.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
9-13/12 /24 AGRI
Dec 16, 2024
Monday: US wheat futures began the week on a positive note but struggled to maintain gains as MATIF wheat remained unresponsive. Corn saw slight upward movement, while soybeans softened ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. The Russian wheat market showed resilience, with FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat climbing to $228/ton, up $2 from the previous week. Concerns about the poor condition of Russian winter grains were tempered by IKAR analysts suggesting the reality may be less dire. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo announced aggressive economic stimulus measures, signaling a shift in fiscal and monetary policies, but these had minimal impact on grains. U.S. export inspections highlighted weak performance in wheat, with only 227k tons inspected, significantly below the previous week’s 299k tons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/12/24
Dec 12, 2024
Panamax transatlantic activity saw a modest boost as charterers sought coverage ahead of the holiday season, but an oversupply of tonnage in the East Mediterranean kept pressure on rates. Fronthaul routes remained lackluster due to weak demand from the Black Sea and continued ballasting toward Gibraltar, leaving the market constrained.
