Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 01-05/07/24
Jul 08, 2024
The week started with wheat prices rebounded over 2%, while corn remained pressured. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 235,000 tons of milling wheat, less than expected. Russian wheat prices fell to $226 per ton FOB. Ukraine’s grain exports rose to 50.8 million metric tons (mmt), but a lower 2024 crop forecast suggests reduced future exports. US export inspections were unimpressive, with corn and soybean conditions holding steady and the winter wheat harvest advancing to 54%.
On Tuesday wheat prices reversed amid a lack of supportive news. Corn initially rallied due to oversold conditions and a USDA flash sale but later gave back gains. The USDA confirmed a corn sale to Colombia, and Jordan canceled its wheat tender due to high prices.
On Wednesday wheat briefly rallied on news of attacks on Russian ports but fell back on improved Russian production forecasts. SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production forecast by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. Tunisia issued new wheat tenders, and Jordan purchased feed barley. Significant fund selling was noted in MATIF milling wheat.
Thursday showed MATIF milling wheat closed higher in low-volume trading. Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 50,000 tons of durum wheat. The USDA attaché in China predicted increased corn demand, while the Czech Republic forecasted a 12% drop in wheat production.
The week ended with strong Grains , led by US wheat futures. French wheat conditions deteriorated, with only 58% rated good/excellent. The projected yield drop suggests the smallest crop since 2016. US wheat export sales were robust, reaching a marketing year high. Slowing US job growth hinted at possible Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
5-9/5/25 Agri
May 12, 2025
Grain markets faced a volatile week, marked by sharp price swings, shifting weather outlooks, and heightened geopolitical developments. The week began with broad-based losses, as favorable U.S. planting weather and declining oil prices pressured corn and wheat. Old crop corn tumbled over 3%, while MATIF milling wheat slid toward the critical €200 mark. Improved Black Sea rainfall forecasts further weighed on sentiment, with IKAR raising its Russian wheat crop estimate to 83.8 mmt. Meanwhile, U.S. planting progress remained steady but slightly below expectations, and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded forecasts, adding to the bearish tone.
Freight
Freight Recap:
08/05/25
May 08, 2025
The Atlantic Panamax market showed modest stability, with transatlantic activity supported by firm demand from North Coast South America and tight tonnage off the Continent. Grain business helped keep sentiment steady, though the southern part of the basin remained quiet with few fresh enquiries. Activity was limited due to holidays, but premium routes offered some support to rates despite a broadly sideways trend.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
28/4/-22/5/25 Agri
May 05, 2025
Grain markets navigated a complex mix of macroeconomic signals, weather developments, and geopolitical currents in Week 18, with wheat drawing the most attention amid volatile fund positioning and shifting sentiment. Early in the week, U.S. wheat futures led a broad decline across grain contracts as expectations for improved crop conditions took hold. These were confirmed late Monday by the Crop Progress report, which showed winter wheat ratings jumping to 49% good/excellent—surpassing market forecasts and matching last year’s figure. Favorable U.S. rainfall and continued planting progress in corn and soybeans reinforced the bearish tone, while a sharp uptick in wheat export inspections helped limit losses. Meanwhile, soybeans bucked the trend to close in the green, supported in part by robust export activity.
Freight
Freight Recap:
01/05/25
May 01, 2025
Panamax market softened over the week, with spot demand showing only limited support, particularly out of North Coast South America. Activity slowed across most areas, partly due to industry events and holidays. The Mediterranean saw a buildup in available tonnage, though sentiment remained cautiously firm.
