Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 01-05/07/24
Jul 08, 2024
The week started with wheat prices rebounded over 2%, while corn remained pressured. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 235,000 tons of milling wheat, less than expected. Russian wheat prices fell to $226 per ton FOB. Ukraine’s grain exports rose to 50.8 million metric tons (mmt), but a lower 2024 crop forecast suggests reduced future exports. US export inspections were unimpressive, with corn and soybean conditions holding steady and the winter wheat harvest advancing to 54%.
On Tuesday wheat prices reversed amid a lack of supportive news. Corn initially rallied due to oversold conditions and a USDA flash sale but later gave back gains. The USDA confirmed a corn sale to Colombia, and Jordan canceled its wheat tender due to high prices.
On Wednesday wheat briefly rallied on news of attacks on Russian ports but fell back on improved Russian production forecasts. SovEcon raised their Russian wheat production forecast by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. Tunisia issued new wheat tenders, and Jordan purchased feed barley. Significant fund selling was noted in MATIF milling wheat.
Thursday showed MATIF milling wheat closed higher in low-volume trading. Tunisia bought 100,000 tons of soft wheat and 50,000 tons of durum wheat. The USDA attaché in China predicted increased corn demand, while the Czech Republic forecasted a 12% drop in wheat production.
The week ended with strong Grains , led by US wheat futures. French wheat conditions deteriorated, with only 58% rated good/excellent. The projected yield drop suggests the smallest crop since 2016. US wheat export sales were robust, reaching a marketing year high. Slowing US job growth hinted at possible Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Weekly Recaps
Freight
Freight Recap:
05/06/25
Jun 05, 2025
The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
26–30 /5/25 Agri
Jun 02, 2025
Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons.
Freight
Freight Recap:
29/05/25
May 29, 2025
The Atlantic market struggled with weak sentiment throughout the week. Following recent holidays, demand remained soft and fresh cargoes were limited, particularly in the North. In the South, while some fixing activity was noted, oversupply of ships continued to weigh heavily on rates. Owners faced increasing pressure as charterers held firm, and some vessels were reported fixing below last done.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
19-23/5/25 Agri
May 26, 2025
Grain markets exhibited volatility throughout Week 21, with wheat prices leading a mid-week rally before easing slightly into the weekend. Early in the week, MATIF milling wheat weakened in response to Saudi Arabia’s tender, which confirmed continued preference for competitively priced Black Sea wheat. Meanwhile, CBOT futures found strength, buoyed by a broader risk-on sentiment in financial markets after a brief dip following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. U.S. corn inspections came in strong, and planting progress remained well ahead of the five-year average, though winter wheat conditions unexpectedly declined. On the geopolitical front, markets briefly reacted to the news of prospective ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, although subsequent clarifications tempered expectations.
