June 03, 2024

Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 27-31/05/24

The week commenced with a bullish sentiment in the wheat market, primarily influenced by revised forecasts for Russian wheat production. IKAR analysts adjusted their estimates downward, predicting the Russian wheat crop to range between 78-84 million metric tons (mmt), a significant decrease from earlier projections of 83.5 mmt. This revision and frost damage affecting up to 2 million hectares of crops catalysed a sharp rise in MATIF wheat futures. Traders swiftly reacted to the new data, anticipating tighter global supply.

In addition to the revised forecasts, prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat on a FOB basis increased to $247 per ton, reflecting an $8 rise from the previous week. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) lowered its 2024 grain and oilseed harvest forecast to 74.6 mmt, down from 76.1 mmt, highlighting ongoing challenges in the region. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) also slightly reduced its 2024 EU soft wheat yield projection to 5.92 tons per hectare (t/ha), maintaining a cautious outlook for the European market.

Tuesday's trading session saw a mixed performance, with Chicago wheat unable to maintain its initial gains. This was partly due to pressure from declining MATIF prices, indicating a market correction following the previous day’s rally. Analysts from SovEcon further revised their forecast for Russian wheat production to 82.1 mmt for the 2024/25 season.

Regarding export dynamics, Jordan rejected offers for 120k tons of milling wheat due to high prices, while EU soft wheat exports reached 27.83 million tons, and corn imports totalled 16.69 million tons as of May 26. US export inspections reported 212k tons of soybeans, 1077k tons of corn, and 399k tons of wheat, highlighting ongoing demand despite price fluctuations.

US crop progress showed that winter wheat conditions dropped to 48% good/excellent. Spring wheat planting progressed to 88% complete, while corn and soybean plantings reached 83% and 68% complete, respectively. This shows substantial progress and contributes to downward pressure on prices.

Wednesday saw a broad decline in grain prices, driven by robust US crop progress and planting conditions. Wheat prices remained relatively unaffected by discussions about India's potential resumption of wheat imports, suggesting that market participants were awaiting more concrete developments.

Non-commercial participants increased their net long position in MATIF milling wheat to 118.7k contracts. At the same time, India's government signalled intentions to resume wheat imports, likely from Russia, to replenish reserves and stabilise domestic prices. This move may include temporarily removing the 40% import tax, signalling a potential shift in global wheat trade dynamics.

Grain prices continued their downward trajectory on Thursday, with wheat leading the decline. Corn and soybean prices also fell, reflecting month-end selling pressure and favourable weather forecasts.

In regulatory developments, the European Council adopted a regulation imposing prohibitive tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus starting July 1, 2024. These tariffs aim to stabilise the market and prevent the entry of illegally appropriated grain from Ukraine.

The US Drought Monitor reported that winter wheat in drought-affected areas remained at 25%, with minimal impact on corn (5%) and soybeans (3%). These figures underscore the favourable soil moisture conditions entering the summer, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the grain markets.

Friday ended the week on a subdued note, with only MATIF wheat showing slight gains. The market remains cautiously optimistic about potential support from Algeria's wheat demand and adverse weather forecasts for Russian-growing regions.

At the Russian Grain Forum, official sources stated that India plans to import 3-5 mmt of wheat in 2024, mainly from Russia. The country also plans to import more chickpeas and yellow peas from Russia. However, private estimates suggest more conservative figures for the Russian wheat harvest, around 77 mmt, indicating potential tightness in the global supply.

In France, 61% of soft wheat was rated as good/excellent as of May 27, a two-point decline from the previous week. Grain maise sowing progressed from 77% to 85% complete.

US weekly export sales totalled 321k tons of wheat, 998k tons of corn, and 336k tons of soybeans. New crop US soybean sales remained weak at just 7k tons, with cumulative sales at 963k tons for the 24/25 season. Funds continued to hold significant short positions in CBOT wheat (~25.4k contracts), corn (~133.5k contracts), and soybeans (~14.2k contracts), reflecting bearish market sentiment.

Other weekly recaps

May 18, 2026Commodities

Agri- Commodities: 11-15/05/26 : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as tensions in the US-Iran conflict intensified ahead of the USDA WASDE report and the Trump-Xi meeting. US winter wheat ratings fell to the second lowest level for this week in 30 years, while wheat futures moved higher again overnight following the weaker-than-expected crop conditions report. Russian wheat export values also remained firm as markets focused on tightening global supply expectations. The USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheets delivered a bullish tone for wheat, with US production projected down 11.5 mmt y/y and world wheat output expected to fall by around 25 mmt across major exporters. Corn and soybeans received more supportive-than-bearish balance sheets as well, with global ending stocks for both crops coming in below expectations. Wheat prices surged following the WASDE release, with both Kansas and Chicago wheat futures closing limit up after USDA projected the lowest US HRW wheat production in 69 years. The market was additionally supported by poor crop conditions and disappointing yield estimates from the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas tour. Outside the US, France projected a sharp drop in maize plantings for 2026 as farmers react to low prices and weak margins, while continued pointing to stronger EU wheat exports than official customs data suggested. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed as oil prices posted a third straight daily gain, adding broader support to commodity markets. Wheat prices turned lower midweek after another failed attempt to rally further, while traders shifted their focus toward the US-China summit in Beijing. Kansas wheat remained relatively supported by poor crop conditions and concerns over global wheat production, including sharply lower forecasts for Argentina’s upcoming crop. Elsewhere, Morocco suspended wheat imports after rainfall boosted its cereals harvest expectations to 9 mmt. France also slightly increased its wheat export outlook, while fund positioning remained volatile as non-commercial traders sharply reduced their MATIF wheat net long during the previous reporting week. A wave of liquidation hit grain markets on Thursday after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver major new Chinese buying commitments. Soybeans led the decline, with losses quickly spreading into corn and wheat, while MATIF wheat remained somewhat less sensitive than CBOT markets. The final Kansas wheat tour estimate confirmed a 27% y/y drop in average yields, reinforcing concerns over the US HRW crop. At the same time, drought coverage across US winter wheat areas increased again, while both Brazil and Argentina updated crop estimates showing larger soybean and corn supplies but weaker wheat outlooks. The week ended with sharp losses across grains and oilseeds as speculative positioning built ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting was aggressively liquidated. Wheat fell back to pre-WASDE levels, while corn tested key chart support despite continued strength in oil prices. Over the weekend, however, China and the US announced progress toward a preliminary agricultural trade agreement, including soybean tariff relief and expanded US agricultural purchases. Meanwhile, fund positioning showed managed money increasing its Chicago wheat short despite the earlier wheat rally, while reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans.

May 11, 2026Commodities

Agri- Commodities: 04-08/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer as rising oil prices supported grains, with soymeal and Chicago wheat leading gains. Iran struck the UAE as the US escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz, adding fresh geopolitical risk to commodity markets. Saudi Arabia bought 985k tons of wheat for June–August shipment, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values for early June rose to $238.5/t. US winter wheat ratings improved slightly nationwide, though key HRW states continued to decline. Corn and soybean planting remained ahead of average pace, while strong US corn export inspections and an upward revision to Brazil’s corn crop added to the market focus. Grains turned lower on Tuesday as improving weather forecasts pressured wheat and weaker oil prices triggered profit-taking in corn and soybeans. Markets also reacted to signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after the US paused its naval escort operation. Crop concerns, however, remained in focus. Oklahoma’s wheat tour projected sharply lower yields and production compared with last year, while traders also looked ahead to the upcoming Wheat Quality Council tour across major US wheat states. Oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied on reports that the US and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war, sending most grain and oilseed markets lower. Kansas wheat was the exception, recovering on ongoing US weather concerns and new frost risks. Elsewhere, Algeria bought an estimated 390k–420k tons of wheat in its latest tender, while Tunisia projected a larger domestic harvest after favorable rainfall. Fund activity remained aggressive, with non-commercial traders significantly increasing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets finished mostly lower but recovered well from intraday lows as oil prices rebounded later in the session. Kansas wheat remained under pressure despite continued concerns over US HRW crop conditions. The US Drought Monitor showed 70% of US winter wheat areas affected by drought, far above last year’s levels. Export sales disappointed for wheat and soybeans, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again after renewed exchanges between the US and Iran. US wheat futures outperformed European markets on Friday, while corn and soybeans also ended firmer ahead of the USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet projections. Energy prices moved higher again as peace talks between the US and Iran appeared to stall. Analysts expect lower US wheat and corn production in the new season, while managed money continued aggressively adding to corn and soybean longs. Funds bought 80k corn contracts as markets whipsawed on Iran headlines.

May 4, 2026Commodities

Agri- Commodities: 27-01/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer, supported by higher oil prices, though performance diverged across the complex. Soymeal led with a near 3% gain, while Chicago wheat rose more than 2%, in contrast to slightly weaker nearby MATIF wheat. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 985k tons of wheat for June–August arrival, exceeding the initial tender volume, with prices ranging from $273.33 to $285.00/t CnF, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat for May held steady at $237/t. In Europe, MARS raised EU soft wheat yield estimates by 1% to 6.05 t/ha, though still down y/y, with Spain expected to see the largest decline. US winter wheat conditions remained weak at 30% G/E and spring wheat planting lagged, while corn and soybean planting moved quickly. Export inspections showed corn and wheat still ahead of last year, while soybeans lagged, and soymeal futures surged after the Netherlands rejected Argentine cargoes containing the HB4 gene. Wheat markets posted a sharp rally, with Chicago and Kansas futures rising more than 4% and MATIF gaining around 2.5% on heavy volume. Strength in oil prices, tightening US wheat balance sheet expectations, and ongoing weather risks contributed to the move, with funds actively adjusting positions. Geopolitical developments remained central, with reports of a prolonged US naval blockade targeting Iranian trade flows and the UAE’s exit from OPEC raising questions about cohesion within the group. On fundamentals, Canadian wheat production was projected lower at 36.2 mmt, EU export data remained incomplete despite stronger line-up signals, and India proposed regulatory changes to allow higher ethanol blending. The wheat rally paused midweek, though MATIF continued higher, with December futures reaching levels last seen in July 2025. Corn extended its upward trend with a ninth consecutive higher close, approaching key levels, while positioning adjustments were expected ahead of the long weekend. Global supply expectations shifted, with Australian wheat production forecast to fall to 29.0 mmt in 2026/27 due to lower area and yields, aligning with expectations of smaller crops across major exporters. Positioning data showed funds turning net long in MATIF wheat and extending longs in rapeseed, while the US maintained its blockade stance on Iran, keeping pressure on oil markets. With European markets closed, trading activity was quieter, and US wheat saw only marginal movement, while corn remained strong, pushing the December 2026 contract to a new multi-year high. Kansas wheat weakened slightly on improved rainfall forecasts in key areas. In Europe, French wheat conditions edged lower but remained above last year’s levels, while maize planting advanced quickly. The European Commission adjusted its balance sheet with higher production and lower exports, India resumed wheat exports after four years, and fund positioning showed continued strength in corn and wheat while soybean longs were trimmed.

April 20, 2026Commodities

Agri- Commodities: 20-24/04/26 : Oil prices started the week firmer, offering some support to Chicago wheat, while Kansas wheat diverged and closed lower as weather forecasts turned slightly more favorable in the US Plains. With markets closely tracking both weather updates and US-Iran developments, sentiment remained highly reactive. Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire beyond midweek, though talks are still ongoing and a deal remains possible. US fundamentals were broadly supportive for wheat. Winter wheat conditions fell another 4 pp to 30% G/E, with Kansas dropping sharply to 24%. Planting progress for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat continued at a steady pace, all slightly ahead of average. Export inspections showed strong wheat demand, while soybean shipments to China remained significantly below last year. Russian wheat FOB prices edged higher, and India approved additional wheat exports, although large-scale shipments remain uncertain. At the same time, China projected a long-term decline in soybean imports, pointing to structural demand changes. Grains and oilseeds moved higher after a slow start as oil prices strengthened on uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. Despite ongoing geopolitical noise, market focus is increasingly shifting toward global weather conditions. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the blockade, keeping uncertainty elevated. Global supply developments remained mixed. Argentina’s corn crop estimate was raised significantly above USDA levels, suggesting potential upward revisions ahead, while Morocco expects its cereals harvest to double following improved rainfall. In contrast, cold weather in Ukraine may delay spring planting. On the demand side, Jordan secured wheat at slightly lower prices, while US export activity remained active with additional corn sales. Currency movements offered some support to EU wheat competitiveness, while the stronger ruble continued to pressure Russian exporters. Markets remained choppy, driven by weather uncertainty and continued geopolitical headlines. Oil prices rebounded further, yet equity markets continued to rally, indicating broader risk appetite. Grain markets also reflected ongoing discussions around planting decisions amid rising input costs. Supply-side updates pointed to both upside and risks. Russia’s wheat crop forecast was raised, though cold weather is delaying spring sowing in both Russia and Ukraine. Argentina and Australia are expected to reduce wheat area, highlighting potential tightening in future supply. EU exports continued to outpace last year, while positioning data showed speculative participants shifting back to a net short in MATIF wheat. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including vessel seizures, supported oil prices and added volatility. Kansas wheat surged to new multi-month highs as dry conditions in the US Plains persisted, with drought coverage rising further. The rally spilled over into Chicago and MATIF wheat, while corn and soybeans traded more quietly. Weather remains the dominant driver, with limited rainfall expected in key regions. Globally, production signals were mixed. The IGC lowered both corn and wheat output estimates, while uncertainty around India’s wheat crop increased due to weather damage. Demand remained active, with Saudi Arabia issuing a large wheat tender. showed strong corn demand but weak wheat figures. Trade flows also drew attention, with reports of Polish wheat sales to the US and potential Russian shipments to Brazil indicating shifting trade dynamics. Markets ended the week mixed. Wheat prices eased as improved rain prospects weighed on Kansas futures, while corn remained stable and soybeans edged higher. Geopolitical developments continued to create uncertainty, though market reactions remained relatively muted. Negotiations between the US and Iran showed limited progress, with conflicting signals around the Strait of Hormuz and broader deal terms. In grains, French wheat conditions slipped slightly but remained well above last year, while maize planting advanced well. Dry conditions across Europe and rising temperatures remain a concern heading into the next week. Positioning data showed funds adding to long positions in corn and soybeans while increasing their net short in wheat.

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