June 03, 2024

Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 27-31/05/24

The week commenced with a bullish sentiment in the wheat market, primarily influenced by revised forecasts for Russian wheat production. IKAR analysts adjusted their estimates downward, predicting the Russian wheat crop to range between 78-84 million metric tons (mmt), a significant decrease from earlier projections of 83.5 mmt. This revision and frost damage affecting up to 2 million hectares of crops catalysed a sharp rise in MATIF wheat futures. Traders swiftly reacted to the new data, anticipating tighter global supply.

In addition to the revised forecasts, prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat on a FOB basis increased to $247 per ton, reflecting an $8 rise from the previous week. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) lowered its 2024 grain and oilseed harvest forecast to 74.6 mmt, down from 76.1 mmt, highlighting ongoing challenges in the region. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) also slightly reduced its 2024 EU soft wheat yield projection to 5.92 tons per hectare (t/ha), maintaining a cautious outlook for the European market.

Tuesday's trading session saw a mixed performance, with Chicago wheat unable to maintain its initial gains. This was partly due to pressure from declining MATIF prices, indicating a market correction following the previous day’s rally. Analysts from SovEcon further revised their forecast for Russian wheat production to 82.1 mmt for the 2024/25 season.

Regarding export dynamics, Jordan rejected offers for 120k tons of milling wheat due to high prices, while EU soft wheat exports reached 27.83 million tons, and corn imports totalled 16.69 million tons as of May 26. US export inspections reported 212k tons of soybeans, 1077k tons of corn, and 399k tons of wheat, highlighting ongoing demand despite price fluctuations.

US crop progress showed that winter wheat conditions dropped to 48% good/excellent. Spring wheat planting progressed to 88% complete, while corn and soybean plantings reached 83% and 68% complete, respectively. This shows substantial progress and contributes to downward pressure on prices.

Wednesday saw a broad decline in grain prices, driven by robust US crop progress and planting conditions. Wheat prices remained relatively unaffected by discussions about India's potential resumption of wheat imports, suggesting that market participants were awaiting more concrete developments.

Non-commercial participants increased their net long position in MATIF milling wheat to 118.7k contracts. At the same time, India's government signalled intentions to resume wheat imports, likely from Russia, to replenish reserves and stabilise domestic prices. This move may include temporarily removing the 40% import tax, signalling a potential shift in global wheat trade dynamics.

Grain prices continued their downward trajectory on Thursday, with wheat leading the decline. Corn and soybean prices also fell, reflecting month-end selling pressure and favourable weather forecasts.

In regulatory developments, the European Council adopted a regulation imposing prohibitive tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus starting July 1, 2024. These tariffs aim to stabilise the market and prevent the entry of illegally appropriated grain from Ukraine.

The US Drought Monitor reported that winter wheat in drought-affected areas remained at 25%, with minimal impact on corn (5%) and soybeans (3%). These figures underscore the favourable soil moisture conditions entering the summer, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the grain markets.

Friday ended the week on a subdued note, with only MATIF wheat showing slight gains. The market remains cautiously optimistic about potential support from Algeria's wheat demand and adverse weather forecasts for Russian-growing regions.

At the Russian Grain Forum, official sources stated that India plans to import 3-5 mmt of wheat in 2024, mainly from Russia. The country also plans to import more chickpeas and yellow peas from Russia. However, private estimates suggest more conservative figures for the Russian wheat harvest, around 77 mmt, indicating potential tightness in the global supply.

In France, 61% of soft wheat was rated as good/excellent as of May 27, a two-point decline from the previous week. Grain maise sowing progressed from 77% to 85% complete.

US weekly export sales totalled 321k tons of wheat, 998k tons of corn, and 336k tons of soybeans. New crop US soybean sales remained weak at just 7k tons, with cumulative sales at 963k tons for the 24/25 season. Funds continued to hold significant short positions in CBOT wheat (~25.4k contracts), corn (~133.5k contracts), and soybeans (~14.2k contracts), reflecting bearish market sentiment.

Other weekly recaps

July 13, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 06-10/07/2026: Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

July 6, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 29-03/07/2026: Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

June 29, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 22-26/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with a split performance. MATIF wheat found support from intensifying heat across western Europe, while US wheat remained under pressure from the advancing harvest. Corn and soybeans closed lower as favorable US crop conditions continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing concerns over Europe. European weather dominated the discussion, but also drew attention. EU soft wheat exports continued to outperform last year, with line-up estimates already exceeding 27 mmt, while Egypt began exploring higher wheat imports from Poland to diversify grain supplies. Meanwhile, US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly to 40% complete. US wheat and corn extended their decline as harvest pressure continued to build and South American supplies weighed on corn markets. In contrast, Europe remained focused on persistent heat and limited rainfall, with forecasts showing crop stress gradually shifting from France toward northern producing regions. Supply revisions remained mixed. Sovecon lowered Russia's wheat crop forecast to 88.9 mmt after excessive rainfall reduced spring wheat plantings, while EU wheat exports continued to move ahead of last year's pace. Jordan once again made no purchases in its wheat tender. MATIF wheat rallied again as hot and dry weather across western Europe remained the dominant market driver. US wheat failed to hold early gains, while corn and soybeans weakened despite sharply lower oil prices. Egypt opened discussions to increase wheat imports from Poland as part of efforts to diversify strategic food supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices briefly dropped back into the $60s after Iran assured the US that commercial vessels would not face additional costs when passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the interim peace agreement. Markets reversed direction, with MATIF wheat easing while US grains recovered alongside firmer oil prices. Traders also digested a fresh round of global production estimates. The European Commission lowered its production forecasts for soft wheat, corn and barley after reducing harvested area estimates, while the IGC raised its outlook for global corn and wheat production. US drought conditions changed little, suggesting European weather remains the larger concern for grain markets. Grains finished the week lower, led by wheat, as traders shifted their attention toward the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Weather remains the dominant driver, particularly for European crops facing prolonged heat and for US corn entering its critical pollination period. French wheat ratings slipped another two percentage points but remained above last year and the five-year average, while maize conditions deteriorated more sharply. US-Iran tensions eased after both sides agreed to halt attacks ahead of renewed peace talks in Doha, although shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain closely monitored. The Russian ruble weakened sharply, switching Russia's wheat export tax back on after several weeks at zero.

June 22, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

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