June 03, 2024

Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 27-31/05/24

The week commenced with a bullish sentiment in the wheat market, primarily influenced by revised forecasts for Russian wheat production. IKAR analysts adjusted their estimates downward, predicting the Russian wheat crop to range between 78-84 million metric tons (mmt), a significant decrease from earlier projections of 83.5 mmt. This revision and frost damage affecting up to 2 million hectares of crops catalysed a sharp rise in MATIF wheat futures. Traders swiftly reacted to the new data, anticipating tighter global supply.

In addition to the revised forecasts, prices for 12.5% protein Russian wheat on a FOB basis increased to $247 per ton, reflecting an $8 rise from the previous week. In Ukraine, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) lowered its 2024 grain and oilseed harvest forecast to 74.6 mmt, down from 76.1 mmt, highlighting ongoing challenges in the region. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) also slightly reduced its 2024 EU soft wheat yield projection to 5.92 tons per hectare (t/ha), maintaining a cautious outlook for the European market.

Tuesday's trading session saw a mixed performance, with Chicago wheat unable to maintain its initial gains. This was partly due to pressure from declining MATIF prices, indicating a market correction following the previous day’s rally. Analysts from SovEcon further revised their forecast for Russian wheat production to 82.1 mmt for the 2024/25 season.

Regarding export dynamics, Jordan rejected offers for 120k tons of milling wheat due to high prices, while EU soft wheat exports reached 27.83 million tons, and corn imports totalled 16.69 million tons as of May 26. US export inspections reported 212k tons of soybeans, 1077k tons of corn, and 399k tons of wheat, highlighting ongoing demand despite price fluctuations.

US crop progress showed that winter wheat conditions dropped to 48% good/excellent. Spring wheat planting progressed to 88% complete, while corn and soybean plantings reached 83% and 68% complete, respectively. This shows substantial progress and contributes to downward pressure on prices.

Wednesday saw a broad decline in grain prices, driven by robust US crop progress and planting conditions. Wheat prices remained relatively unaffected by discussions about India's potential resumption of wheat imports, suggesting that market participants were awaiting more concrete developments.

Non-commercial participants increased their net long position in MATIF milling wheat to 118.7k contracts. At the same time, India's government signalled intentions to resume wheat imports, likely from Russia, to replenish reserves and stabilise domestic prices. This move may include temporarily removing the 40% import tax, signalling a potential shift in global wheat trade dynamics.

Grain prices continued their downward trajectory on Thursday, with wheat leading the decline. Corn and soybean prices also fell, reflecting month-end selling pressure and favourable weather forecasts.

In regulatory developments, the European Council adopted a regulation imposing prohibitive tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus starting July 1, 2024. These tariffs aim to stabilise the market and prevent the entry of illegally appropriated grain from Ukraine.

The US Drought Monitor reported that winter wheat in drought-affected areas remained at 25%, with minimal impact on corn (5%) and soybeans (3%). These figures underscore the favourable soil moisture conditions entering the summer, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the grain markets.

Friday ended the week on a subdued note, with only MATIF wheat showing slight gains. The market remains cautiously optimistic about potential support from Algeria's wheat demand and adverse weather forecasts for Russian-growing regions.

At the Russian Grain Forum, official sources stated that India plans to import 3-5 mmt of wheat in 2024, mainly from Russia. The country also plans to import more chickpeas and yellow peas from Russia. However, private estimates suggest more conservative figures for the Russian wheat harvest, around 77 mmt, indicating potential tightness in the global supply.

In France, 61% of soft wheat was rated as good/excellent as of May 27, a two-point decline from the previous week. Grain maise sowing progressed from 77% to 85% complete.

US weekly export sales totalled 321k tons of wheat, 998k tons of corn, and 336k tons of soybeans. New crop US soybean sales remained weak at just 7k tons, with cumulative sales at 963k tons for the 24/25 season. Funds continued to hold significant short positions in CBOT wheat (~25.4k contracts), corn (~133.5k contracts), and soybeans (~14.2k contracts), reflecting bearish market sentiment.

Other weekly recaps

July 27, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook: The week opened with mixed grain markets. Corn followed soybeans higher, while CBOT wheat declined and MATIF wheat closed modestly firmer. US crop data showed soybean conditions improving by 1 pp to 66% good to excellent, while corn also gained 1 pp to 67%. Spring wheat conditions fell more sharply than expected, dropping 5 pp to 53%, and the winter wheat harvest reached 74% completion. USDA also reported private soybean sales to China and unknown destinations, together with corn sales to Colombia. Weekly export inspections were weak for wheat and especially soybeans. US spring wheat led Tuesday’s gains as dry weather and deteriorating crop conditions supported prices. Other US wheat contracts also advanced, while corn recovered from early losses despite better-than-expected condition ratings. MATIF wheat remained below the highs reached during its recent rally. Brazil’s second corn harvest reached 49.8% completion, while wheat planting advanced to 97.4%. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat forecast from 88.9 mmt to 88.3 mmt. Initial results from the North Dakota crop tour placed southern spring wheat yields at 46.0 bushels per acre, below last year but slightly above the five-year average. Grain markets moved higher again, with wheat supported by continued attacks around the Black Sea and new restrictions at Novorossiysk. Russia introduced a temporary night curfew on vessel traffic at the port, limiting movements between midnight and 5 a.m. MATIF wheat joined the rally, while corn and soybeans also closed higher alongside firmer crude oil. EU soft wheat reached 0.47 mmt as of July 19, up 252k tonnes from the previous report but below 0.86 mmt a year earlier. Non-commercial participants increased their net long in MATIF milling wheat to 111.9k contracts, the highest level in more than two years, while their rapeseed net long rose to 72.4k contracts. Wheat fell sharply across US and European markets, giving back part of the earlier gains, while corn finished unchanged and soybeans moved higher. Black Sea shipping risks remained in focus, although Ukraine’s agriculture minister denied reports that mechanisms were being discussed to secure exports from the Big Odesa ports. Allseeds halted operations in the Odesa region because of the attacks. France’s soft wheat harvest reached 99% completion, while maize conditions declined to 38% good to excellent. Funds sold 11.5k wheat contracts on Friday but remained net buyers of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over the full week. Expana reduced its EU soybean and sunflower seed production forecasts, while IKAR projected Russia’s 2026 grain crop at 139 mmt, including 90 mmt of wheat.

July 20, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat prices gave back Friday’s gains as the market assessed how long restrictions in the Sea of Azov could continue. The disruption remained a source of risk, although Russia had other ports available to redirect cargoes. Corn and soybeans closed higher alongside a surge in oil prices after the US announced plans to reinstate its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a 20% charge on other cargoes using the waterway. US crop conditions improved, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans 65%, both 1 pp higher over the week. Spring wheat ratings also increased to 58%, while the winter wheat harvest reached 67% completion. Wheat recovered from early losses as continued attacks on vessels and infrastructure around Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor supported prices. Russia said it would reroute grain exports through other Black Sea and Baltic ports to meet its commitments, although this would increase transport costs. US wheat futures outperformed MATIF as the dollar weakened following lower-than-expected inflation data. CONAB raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 141.73 mmt but reduced its wheat estimate to 6.03 mmt. EU Commission data placed soft wheat exports at 0.21 mmt as of July 12, although vessel lineups indicated volumes closer to 0.9 mmt. Wheat futures rose strongly as shipowners increasingly avoided Ukrainian Black Sea ports and some existing bookings were reviewed or cancelled. Traders also paused new purchases while reassessing insurance, freight and execution risks. Attention remained focused on Russian export flows from Novorossiysk, particularly during the period when the country’s wheat programme normally accelerates. France’s farm ministry estimated the soft wheat crop at 32 mmt, only 4% below last year despite the earlier heat wave. Non-commercial participants also moved from a net short of 9.7k MATIF wheat contracts to a net long of 23.6k contracts. Wheat reversed lower after reaching multi-month highs as traders reduced part of the Black Sea risk premium. Germany’s DRV lowered its 2026 wheat production estimate to 21.89 mmt from 22.63 mmt in June because of heat and limited rainfall. FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports at 14.4 mmt and ending stocks at 3.65 mmt, but did not publish a corn SnD . US weekly export sales reached 235k tonnes of wheat, 626k tonnes of corn and 1.96 mmt of soybeans, with wheat and corn sales below market expectations. Drought affected 19% of US corn, 18% of soybeans and 24% of spring wheat acreage. Grain markets ended the week higher, led by wheat, as attacks and shipping restrictions in the Black Sea continued. Renewed US-Iran tensions also pushed Brent crude above $90. The French soft wheat harvest advanced by 33 pp to 92% complete, while French corn condition ratings fell another 6 pp to 41%. Weather forecasts indicated continued stress for French corn, cooler conditions across much of Europe and unwanted rain in northern Poland and the Baltics. Managed money increased its net long in Chicago corn by 30.7k contracts to 43.4k and reduced its net short in Chicago wheat by 25.5k contracts to 36.8k.

July 13, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

July 6, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

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