Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Ag markets opened the week sharply lower after the US-China trade package failed to deliver the demand boost traders had expected. China agreed to lower tariffs on US corn and wheat, but soybeans were excluded and no new purchase commitments were announced. Russian 12.5% wheat for November eased to $267/t FOB Baltic ports, while Pakistan’s latest tender drew a low offer of $339.36/t C&F, almost $9.50/t below its previous purchase. US corn inspections reached 1.57 mmt, while wheat inspections remained weak at 311k tonnes. JRC MARS also cut its EU grain maize yield forecast to 6.50 t/ha, 8% below the five-year average. Wheat rebounded from multi-week lows as renewed Black Sea attacks and a weaker euro supported MATIF, while corn remained little changed ahead of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report. The European Commission cut its 2026/27 EU corn crop estimate to 48.3 mmt from 50.1 mmt, while imports were held at 25.0 mmt. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.81 mmt by September 27, although internal line-ups were already around 8.5 mmt. Brussels also kept Ukraine’s tariff-free quotas unchanged at 1.3 mmt for wheat and 1.0 mmt for corn. Corn fell sharply after USDA reported September 1 stocks at 2.095 bln bushels, well above the 1.918 bln trade estimate and 1.551 bln a year earlier. USDA also revised the 2025 corn crop 57 mln bushels lower, leaving weaker implied feed and residual demand as the main driver of the larger carry-in. US wheat production was estimated at 1.534 bln bushels, slightly above expectations, although winter wheat increased while spring wheat was cut to 450 mln bushels. Funds were heavily long corn going into the report, increasing the scale of the liquidation. Pakistan also purchased 180k tonnes of wheat at $339.36/t C&F. Wheat recovered while corn stabilised after the USDA-driven sell-off, supported by renewed Black Sea risk and fresh import demand. Saudi Arabia returned with a 535k-tonne wheat tender for November and December shipment after cancelling the same volume in September because offers were considered too expensive. Estonia banned transit of Russian and Belarusian grain, limiting another potential alternative route around disrupted Black Sea ports. reached only 289k tonnes, while corn sales were 536k tonnes, both near the bottom of expectations. Argentina completed its 2025/26 corn harvest at a record 64 mmt. European wheat ended the week firmer as Black Sea risk and a weaker euro supported export values, while US corn lost almost 6% over the week following the larger USDA carry-in and continued fund liquidation. Black Sea execution risk increased again after a Liberian-flagged cargo vessel was struck in an Odesa-region port. France’s corn harvest advanced to 67% complete, compared with 45% a week earlier and a five-year average of 20%. FAO’s Food Price Index rose 1.5% month on month to 136.0 in September, the highest since November 2022, with cereal prices up 5.1%. Managed money had already reduced its corn net long to 377.9k contracts before the USDA stocks report.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grains started the week higher, with corn and soybeans leading as expectations around the Trump-Xi meeting brought Chinese demand back into focus. Wheat also gained after another weekend of Russia-Ukraine strikes, while Black Sea deep-water exports remained heavily disrupted. Russia continued redirecting grain through Baltic ports and planned to begin using Murmansk in October. Russian 12.5% wheat for November fell to $268/t FOB Vysotsk/Ust-Luga, while wheat, barley and corn export duties were formally reduced to zero through year-end. US corn inspections remained strong at 1.94 mmt, while wheat inspections fell to 335k tonnes. reached 13% and soybean harvest 12%, both ahead of their five-year averages. Grains gave back much of Monday’s rally as traders waited for clearer signals from US-China talks and Black Sea diplomacy. Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop estimate was raised to a record 66.0 mmt, while soybean production was forecast at 53.6 mmt and wheat at 23.4 mmt. Jordan purchased 60k tonnes of wheat at $332/t C&F for first-half November, around $13/t above its August purchase. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.30 mmt by September 20, 2% above last year, although line-ups indicated actual execution closer to 8 mmt. Crude oil continued to ease as improved Saudi flows and possible US-Iran talks reduced some of the recent macro support for grains. Grain markets remained under pressure ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, with wheat briefly testing a one-month low. COCERAL cut its EU soft wheat production forecast by 1.03 mmt to 126.24 mmt and reduced corn by 4.12 mmt to 48.63 mmt, almost 8 mmt below last year. Tunisia purchased 125k tonnes of soft wheat at $311.72–314.23/t C&F and 75k tonnes of feed barley at $304.23–307.62/t. MATIF non-commercial participants reduced their wheat net long by 8k contracts to 212.9k, although positioning remained historically elevated. MATIF wheat led the decline after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver new agricultural purchase commitments. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, but China’s additional 10% soybean tariff remained in place. Turkey continued efforts to revive a Black Sea grain corridor, although Russia had not agreed to a deal and attacks continued. US wheat export sales reached only 268k tonnes, while corn sales fell to 838k tonnes. Bangladesh also booked more than 200k tonnes of Indian wheat following India’s removal of export restrictions in August, marking its first sizeable purchases from the country since 2022. Wheat finished the week lower but recovered from its intraday lows as Black Sea corridor expectations again competed with continued attacks on logistics and vessels. China announced tariff reductions on a broad range of US agricultural goods, including corn, wheat and sorghum, while soybeans remained subject to the additional 10% duty. Attention also shifted toward USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports, with traders expecting the US wheat crop near 1.524 bln bushels. Managed money remained heavily long corn at 414.4k contracts, while SRW wheat moved further into a net short. France’s maize harvest advanced sharply to 45% complete, compared with 27% a week earlier and 13% last year.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat experienced another volatile session as reports of a possible halt to attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure triggered profit-taking. MATIF closed lower, although a weaker euro provided some support. Russian Baltic wheat prices declined to $274/t FOB, while southern export routes remained heavily constrained. US corn export inspections reached 1.53 mmt, while wheat inspections improved to 457k tonnes but remained well below last year. US corn conditions unexpectedly improved by 1 pp to 57% good to excellent, with harvest progress reaching 8%, ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat harvest reached 93%, while winter wheat planting advanced to 8%. Wheat and corn recovered from early weakness as another surge in crude oil supported agricultural commodities, while fading hopes for an immediate Black Sea de-escalation helped wheat regain ground. Algeria purchased around 500–510k tonnes of milling wheat at $319–321/t C&F for November shipment, approximately $30/t above its August purchase. France reduced its 2026 grain maize production forecast to 8.1 mmt from 9.0 mmt, while CONAB raised to 144.0 mmt and projected a record 148.0 mmt for 2026/27. EU soft wheat exports reached 5.61 mmt by September 13, although internal line-ups indicated shipments closer to 7.3 mmt. Grain markets remained volatile, with wheat supported by importer demand and continued Black Sea export restrictions, while corn traded within a narrow range ahead of more reliable US harvest results. FranceAgriMer lowered French soft wheat export forecasts to 6.3 mmt outside the EU and 7.1 mmt within the bloc, while ending stocks fell to 3.01 mmt. Ukraine began winter wheat planting, with the agriculture ministry expecting area to decline to around 4.5 mha from 4.7 mha last season. Pakistan's 750k-tonne wheat tender attracted a lowest offer of $348.83/t C&F, although no purchase had been reported. Canadian wheat production was estimated at 36.1 mmt, while MATIF non-commercial participants increased their net long to a record 220.9k contracts. Grains finished lower but recovered from their intraday lows as renewed Black Sea attacks and diplomatic developments pulled wheat in both directions. Turkey circulated a draft proposal to stop attacks on civilian shipping, although no agreement had been reached. Russia damaged a bridge connecting Ukrainian grain-producing regions to Danube ports, while an attack on a Tanzanian-flagged vessel killed its captain. Pakistan continued negotiating lower wheat prices after receiving offers for its 750k-tonne tender. The IGC increased its global wheat production estimate to 820 mmt but reduced corn production to 1.301 billion tonnes. US export sales reached 326k tonnes of wheat, 1.03 mmt of corn and 1.70 mmt of soybeans. Argentina's corn planting advanced to 11.1%, while wheat conditions remained favourable. Grain markets ended the week lower, with wheat leading the decline as profit-taking continued despite persistent Black Sea export restrictions. FranceAgriMer reduced French maize conditions to just 23% good to excellent, down from 26% and the lowest in its reporting series. Harvest progress reached 27%, compared with a five-year average of 5%. Managed money reduced its Chicago wheat position to a small net short of 4.7k contracts, while corn remained heavily held at approximately 426.8k contracts net long. Pakistan purchased 365k tonnes of the 750k tonnes sought in its wheat tender at $348.83/t C&F, while its remaining requirements continued to attract attention.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : European wheat recovered in a thin session as US markets were closed for Labor Day, with MATIF supported by limited progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Saudi Arabia cancelled its 535k-tonne wheat tender after judging offers too expensive following the Black Sea rally. Latvia also announced plans for a 300% tariff on grain arriving from Russia and Belarus, although it remained unclear whether transit cargoes would be included. Brent traded near $97/bbl amid renewed US-Iran tensions and slower Hormuz traffic, increasing bunker and freight costs. US wheat initially rallied as Chicago caught up with Monday’s MATIF move before giving back part of the gains. Pakistan entered the wheat market for 750k tonnes, providing another test of replacement values while Black Sea availability remained constrained. EU soft wheat exports reached 4.92 mmt by September 6, compared with internal line-ups of 5.74 mmt. US corn inspections remained strong at 1.66 mmt, while crop conditions slipped another point to 56% good to excellent. StoneX also lowered its US corn yield estimate to 182.9 bpa. Wheat and corn moved lower despite further attacks around Black Sea infrastructure as renewed discussion of US-mediated peace talks encouraged profit-taking. Ukrainian drones struck port infrastructure at Makhachkala on the Caspian Sea, while damage was also reported around Novorossiysk. Argentina’s wheat forecast was raised to 21.0 mmt, while MATIF non-commercial net length increased to a record 216.8k contracts. Jordan reportedly purchased 50k tonnes of feed barley at $318.5/t CnF, compared with $252.6/t in July, highlighting the sharp increase in nearby replacement values. Grain markets moved higher ahead of WASDE as energy prices surged again. Brent settled at $107.63/bbl after tanker attacks intensified and risks increased around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia tendered for 535k tonnes of milling wheat, while US new-crop corn export sales reached 1.99 mmt and wheat sales totaled 314k tonnes. French wheat quality remained strong, with 89% above 11% protein and 53% classified as premium grade. Grains came under pressure following the September WASDE. USDA reduced the US corn yield to 178.5 bpa from 180.7 and lowered ending stocks to 1.567 bln bushels, although both remained above market expectations. Global wheat stocks increased to 276.29 mmt despite USDA cutting Russian exports by 3 mmt and Ukrainian exports by 1 mmt. French corn conditions declined again to 26% good to excellent, while harvest reached 9%. Algeria also issued a tender for November soft wheat, providing another test of replacement values following the recent rally