Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat pulled back after Turkey said it had prepared a plan for safe Black Sea grain passage and was in contact with Russia and Ukraine, prompting profit-taking after the previous week’s contract highs. No agreement had been reached, however, and Black Sea loadings remained heavily disrupted. Corn retained stronger support, with US crop conditions unchanged at 57% good to excellent and export inspections reaching 1.50 mmt, taking marketing-year shipments 25% above last year. ABARES raised Australian wheat production to 29.9 mmt from 26.7 mmt and barley production to 16.4 mmt. Wheat moved to fresh highs after Russia rejected another attempt to de-escalate Black Sea attacks and fresh strikes damaged infrastructure in Odesa. Renewed US-Iran fighting also lifted energy markets, with Brent settling at $94.65/bbl and WTI at $90.22. EU soft wheat exports were reported at 4.16 mmt by August 30, only 0.16 mmt behind last year, although much of the weekly increase reflected delayed customs reporting rather than a sudden surge in shipments. Corn remained supported by US crop concerns despite some profit-taking across grain markets. Wheat and corn reached fresh contract highs before selling emerged later in the session. Russia suspended wheat, corn and barley export duties through December 31, although port access, vessel risk and freight remained the main constraints on Russian exports. Non-commercial participants increased their MATIF wheat net long by 51.9k contracts to 201.1k, while fund positioning in corn also remained elevated. Ukraine’s fell sharply in August, with grain exports at just 981k tonnes, down 58% y/y, as Black Sea disruption pushed volumes toward slower and more expensive alternatives. Germany’s wheat crop was estimated at 20.81 mmt, down 10.1%, while maize production was forecast at 3.75 mmt, down 24.2%. Wheat corrected sharply after comments from Putin raised the possibility of a peace agreement with Ukraine, encouraging profit-taking after the recent rally. Saudi Arabia tendered for 535k tonnes of milling wheat for November and December arrival. US new-crop corn export sales reached 1.99 mmt, while wheat sales were weaker at 314k tonnes. HRS sales included Egypt, an unusual destination as disrupted Black Sea supply continued to affect sourcing. Argentina began planting its 2026/27 corn crop, while the old-crop harvest reached 92.5% and wheat conditions remained broadly favourable. Wheat extended its correction as renewed peace efforts encouraged further liquidation, although talks between US envoys, Russia and Ukraine did not deliver an agreement. Latvia and Lithuania were considering restrictions on Russian grain exports through Baltic ports, potentially affecting routes Moscow had increasingly relied on as alternatives to the Black Sea. French maize conditions declined again to 27% good to excellent, while harvest reached 3% completion. Managed money increased its corn net long to 431.1k contracts, while Chicago wheat moved to a net long of 14.7k contracts for the first time in four months

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Corn extended its rally as US yield concerns intensified, while wheat gave back most early gains after comments about a possible diplomatic track on Black Sea shipping encouraged profit-taking. USDA cut US corn conditions by 3 pp to 57% good to excellent, below expectations and the lowest for this point in the season since 2023. EU maize prospects also deteriorated, with JRC lowering its yield forecast to 6.61 t/ha, 7% below the five-year average. Russian 12.5% wheat for late September fell to Novorossiysk, while August export expectations were reduced towards 1.8–2.0 mmt as southern logistics remained heavily constrained. Corn remained the strongest grain market as traders continued to question US yield potential, while wheat balanced worsening Black Sea execution against signs of diplomatic progress. Russia was reportedly considering suspending its grain export duty through year-end, which would improve exporter margins but would not resolve southern port constraints. Argentina’s 2026/27 corn area was held at 8.4 mha, while Agroconsult forecast Brazilian corn area rising around 3% year on year to 23.3 mha. Oil prices moved lower as Iran and Oman discussed a temporary shipping corridor and mine-clearing arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz. Wheat moved sharply higher as Black Sea risks escalated again, with CBOT reaching its daily limit while corn and soybeans also gained. Reports that Russia was preparing to intensify attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure added risk premium, while debris damaged a civilian vessel at Reni. NKHP said repairs to its damaged Novorossiysk terminal could take one to four months, while around 50–70 vessels were reportedly waiting near Sulina. EU soft wheat exports were officially reported at 2.38 mmt by August 23, although internal line-ups already indicated shipments above 4.2 mmt as replacement demand for European wheat increased. Tunisia also entered the market seeking 125k tonnes of soft wheat and 75k tonnes of feed barley. Wheat extended its rally as buyers continued shifting towards alternative origins, while corn eased after six consecutive higher sessions. The European Commission cut EU maize production by 1.8 mmt to 50.1 mmt, the lowest in 19 years, and raised imports to 25.0 mmt. EU soft wheat ending stocks were reduced to 11.3 mmt. Russia’s alternative export routes remained considerably more expensive, with Baltic movements estimated to add around $30–50/t, while available northern and eastern routes could replace only part of lost southern capacity. Australian wheat prospects improved to 30–32 mmt following better rainfall, while Argentina completed wheat planting across 6.5 mha. Wheat finished the week at new contract highs in Chicago, Kansas and MATIF as Black Sea disruption continued, while corn also moved higher. Russia’s Rostov region declared an emergency as port closures and navigation restrictions caused agricultural products to accumulate at farms. FranceAgriMer reduced French maize conditions to 28% good to excellent, the lowest level in records dating back to 2011. Managed money increased its corn net long by 126k contracts to 376.5k as of Tuesday, with estimates suggesting further buying later in the week. Energy prices also moved higher after the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the first time in around a month.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat started the week quietly despite further Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure, while corn remained supported by strong US export demand and growing uncertainty around yield potential. Russian 12.5% wheat for September fell to $215/t FOB Novorossiysk despite continuing logistical constraints. US corn export inspections reached 1.91 mmt, compared with 1.05 mmt a year earlier. Early Pro Farmer Crop Tour results were below last year, with Ohio corn estimated at 180.18 bpa and South Dakota at 149.09 bpa. US corn conditions also slipped another 1 pp to 60% good to excellent. Wheat corrected as further Black Sea disruption failed to extend the recent rally, while corn eased slightly after reaching its highest level since late May. Pro Farmer results remained below last year, with Indiana corn estimated at 183.54 bpa and Nebraska at 163.61 bpa. Germany’s DBV cut its winter wheat crop estimate by 7% year on year to 20.9 mmt. EU soft wheat exports were officially reported at 1.48 mmt through August 16, compared with 2.90 mmt last year, although internal line-ups indicated actual exports closer to 3.6 mmt. Jordan also returned to the wheat market after a 70-day break, purchasing around 60k tonnes at about $318.95/t C&F. Wheat rebounded strongly as the slowdown in Russian and Ukrainian exports became more visible, while corn reached fresh multi-month highs. Rusagrotrans estimated Russian August wheat exports at only 1.8 mmt, the lowest since 2010, while Ukraine exported just 794k tonnes of agricultural products during the first half of August. Pro Farmer’s Illinois corn estimate came in at 184.19 bpa, below 199.57 last year, while western Iowa results were also lower. A stronger euro added pressure to EU wheat competitiveness, while low Rhine water levels continued to restrict vessel loads and raise inland freight costs. Corn extended its rally as the Crop Tour continued to challenge USDA’s yield assumptions, while wheat remained firm amid restricted Black Sea exports. Iowa corn was estimated at 193.98 bpa versus 198.43 last year, while Minnesota reached 199.01 versus 202.86. USDA reported 1.049 mmt of combined old- and new-crop corn sales, while wheat sales reached 394k tonnes. Argentina’s corn harvest advanced to 81.3% but remained 13.7 pp behind the 10-year average because of wet fields and high grain moisture. The IGC also reduced its 2026/27 global production forecasts for corn to 1,305 mmt and wheat to 817 mmt. Corn finished the week firmly after Pro Farmer estimated the US crop at 15.344 bln bushels with a yield of 173.2 bpa, well below USDA’s 16.013 bln bushels and 180.7 bpa. Wheat eased as fewer new Black Sea headlines encouraged some profit-taking, although SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat crop estimate to 88.2 mmt. Ukraine’s grain exports through August 21 reached just 539k tonnes versus 1.73 mmt a year earlier, including 340k tonnes of wheat compared with 1.28 mmt last year. Managed money increased its net long in corn by 83.7k contracts to 250.5k, while French corn conditions held at 29% good to excellent after nine consecutive weekly declines.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat struggled to hold its geopolitical premium despite further Black Sea disruption, with MATIF closing lower and US wheat giving back most early gains. Ukraine cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast to 38–40 mmt from 43 mmt and warned of an 11 mmt storage shortfall if port disruptions persist. Russian wheat prices also declined despite higher logistics costs, with IKAR putting 12.5% wheat at $220/t FOB Novorossiysk. Russia was reportedly preparing a $122 million subsidy package to redirect agricultural exports by rail to Black Sea, Baltic and Far East ports. US corn export inspections remained strong at 1.74 mmt, while corn conditions were unchanged at 61% good to excellent. Wheat moved lower again as reports of possible Russia-Ukraine discussions over safer shipping encouraged further liquidation. EU soft wheat exports reached 1.01 mmt by August 9, compared with 2.36 mmt last year, although current line-ups already indicated exports above 2.6 mmt. IKAR trimmed its Russian wheat crop forecast to 90.0 mmt and maintained export potential at 44.5 mmt. Attention then shifted to the August WASDE, where trade expectations pointed to a modest reduction in US corn yield and tighter corn stocks. Grain markets turned sharply higher after the WASDE and another escalation around Black Sea export infrastructure. Ukrainian strikes suspended operations at major grain terminals in Novorossiysk, while Russia attacked Izmail, Ukraine’s largest Danube grain port. USDA cut its first survey-based US corn yield estimate to 180.7 bu/acre from 183.0, while stronger exports and lower beginning stocks reduced 2026/27 ending stocks by 137 mbu to 1.653 bln bu. Wheat fundamentals were less changed, with US ending stocks at 717 mbu and global stocks rising slightly to 273.3 mmt. Ukraine also secured a 50% discount on Moldovan rail transit as it sought alternatives to disrupted Black Sea routes. Wheat remained highly volatile as disruption spread across Russian and Ukrainian export infrastructure. All three major Novorossiysk grain terminals were halted, representing around 75% of Russia’s Black Sea grain terminal capacity, while reports of damage at Ust-Luga extended the risk beyond the Black Sea. Ukrainian grain exports were down around 76% year on year in August as shipowners avoided ports, while low Danube water levels reduced the ability to redirect cargoes. Ukraine reportedly offered to halt attacks on civilian Black Sea targets if Russia reciprocated, although Moscow had not formally responded. US wheat export sales remained limited at 255.9k tonnes, while combined old- and new-crop corn sales reached 1.335 mmt. Wheat finished the week sharply higher as further Black Sea escalation added risk premium and corn also firmed. Russia rejected the proposed Black Sea moratorium, while Novorossiysk remained heavily constrained and the strike on Ust-Luga demonstrated the risks surrounding alternative Russian export routes. FranceAgriMer cut French maize ratings another 2 pp to 29% good to excellent, compared with 65% last year, while AGPM lowered its grain maize estimate to 7–8 mmt. Argentina exported a record 5.14 mmt of corn in July as buyers gained another supply option while Black Sea reliability deteriorated. Managed money entered the WASDE week net long 166.8k corn contracts, while the Chicago wheat net short increased to 31.4k contracts.