Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Corn extended its rally as US yield concerns intensified, while wheat gave back most early gains after comments about a possible diplomatic track on Black Sea shipping encouraged profit-taking. USDA cut US corn conditions by 3 pp to 57% good to excellent, below expectations and the lowest for this point in the season since 2023. EU maize prospects also deteriorated, with JRC lowering its yield forecast to 6.61 t/ha, 7% below the five-year average. Russian 12.5% wheat for late September fell to Novorossiysk, while August export expectations were reduced towards 1.8–2.0 mmt as southern logistics remained heavily constrained. Corn remained the strongest grain market as traders continued to question US yield potential, while wheat balanced worsening Black Sea execution against signs of diplomatic progress. Russia was reportedly considering suspending its grain export duty through year-end, which would improve exporter margins but would not resolve southern port constraints. Argentina’s 2026/27 corn area was held at 8.4 mha, while Agroconsult forecast Brazilian corn area rising around 3% year on year to 23.3 mha. Oil prices moved lower as Iran and Oman discussed a temporary shipping corridor and mine-clearing arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz. Wheat moved sharply higher as Black Sea risks escalated again, with CBOT reaching its daily limit while corn and soybeans also gained. Reports that Russia was preparing to intensify attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure added risk premium, while debris damaged a civilian vessel at Reni. NKHP said repairs to its damaged Novorossiysk terminal could take one to four months, while around 50–70 vessels were reportedly waiting near Sulina. EU soft wheat exports were officially reported at 2.38 mmt by August 23, although internal line-ups already indicated shipments above 4.2 mmt as replacement demand for European wheat increased. Tunisia also entered the market seeking 125k tonnes of soft wheat and 75k tonnes of feed barley. Wheat extended its rally as buyers continued shifting towards alternative origins, while corn eased after six consecutive higher sessions. The European Commission cut EU maize production by 1.8 mmt to 50.1 mmt, the lowest in 19 years, and raised imports to 25.0 mmt. EU soft wheat ending stocks were reduced to 11.3 mmt. Russia’s alternative export routes remained considerably more expensive, with Baltic movements estimated to add around $30–50/t, while available northern and eastern routes could replace only part of lost southern capacity. Australian wheat prospects improved to 30–32 mmt following better rainfall, while Argentina completed wheat planting across 6.5 mha. Wheat finished the week at new contract highs in Chicago, Kansas and MATIF as Black Sea disruption continued, while corn also moved higher. Russia’s Rostov region declared an emergency as port closures and navigation restrictions caused agricultural products to accumulate at farms. FranceAgriMer reduced French maize conditions to 28% good to excellent, the lowest level in records dating back to 2011. Managed money increased its corn net long by 126k contracts to 376.5k as of Tuesday, with estimates suggesting further buying later in the week. Energy prices also moved higher after the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the first time in around a month.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat started the week quietly despite further Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure, while corn remained supported by strong US export demand and growing uncertainty around yield potential. Russian 12.5% wheat for September fell to $215/t FOB Novorossiysk despite continuing logistical constraints. US corn export inspections reached 1.91 mmt, compared with 1.05 mmt a year earlier. Early Pro Farmer Crop Tour results were below last year, with Ohio corn estimated at 180.18 bpa and South Dakota at 149.09 bpa. US corn conditions also slipped another 1 pp to 60% good to excellent. Wheat corrected as further Black Sea disruption failed to extend the recent rally, while corn eased slightly after reaching its highest level since late May. Pro Farmer results remained below last year, with Indiana corn estimated at 183.54 bpa and Nebraska at 163.61 bpa. Germany’s DBV cut its winter wheat crop estimate by 7% year on year to 20.9 mmt. EU soft wheat exports were officially reported at 1.48 mmt through August 16, compared with 2.90 mmt last year, although internal line-ups indicated actual exports closer to 3.6 mmt. Jordan also returned to the wheat market after a 70-day break, purchasing around 60k tonnes at about $318.95/t C&F. Wheat rebounded strongly as the slowdown in Russian and Ukrainian exports became more visible, while corn reached fresh multi-month highs. Rusagrotrans estimated Russian August wheat exports at only 1.8 mmt, the lowest since 2010, while Ukraine exported just 794k tonnes of agricultural products during the first half of August. Pro Farmer’s Illinois corn estimate came in at 184.19 bpa, below 199.57 last year, while western Iowa results were also lower. A stronger euro added pressure to EU wheat competitiveness, while low Rhine water levels continued to restrict vessel loads and raise inland freight costs. Corn extended its rally as the Crop Tour continued to challenge USDA’s yield assumptions, while wheat remained firm amid restricted Black Sea exports. Iowa corn was estimated at 193.98 bpa versus 198.43 last year, while Minnesota reached 199.01 versus 202.86. USDA reported 1.049 mmt of combined old- and new-crop corn sales, while wheat sales reached 394k tonnes. Argentina’s corn harvest advanced to 81.3% but remained 13.7 pp behind the 10-year average because of wet fields and high grain moisture. The IGC also reduced its 2026/27 global production forecasts for corn to 1,305 mmt and wheat to 817 mmt. Corn finished the week firmly after Pro Farmer estimated the US crop at 15.344 bln bushels with a yield of 173.2 bpa, well below USDA’s 16.013 bln bushels and 180.7 bpa. Wheat eased as fewer new Black Sea headlines encouraged some profit-taking, although SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat crop estimate to 88.2 mmt. Ukraine’s grain exports through August 21 reached just 539k tonnes versus 1.73 mmt a year earlier, including 340k tonnes of wheat compared with 1.28 mmt last year. Managed money increased its net long in corn by 83.7k contracts to 250.5k, while French corn conditions held at 29% good to excellent after nine consecutive weekly declines.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat struggled to hold its geopolitical premium despite further Black Sea disruption, with MATIF closing lower and US wheat giving back most early gains. Ukraine cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast to 38–40 mmt from 43 mmt and warned of an 11 mmt storage shortfall if port disruptions persist. Russian wheat prices also declined despite higher logistics costs, with IKAR putting 12.5% wheat at $220/t FOB Novorossiysk. Russia was reportedly preparing a $122 million subsidy package to redirect agricultural exports by rail to Black Sea, Baltic and Far East ports. US corn export inspections remained strong at 1.74 mmt, while corn conditions were unchanged at 61% good to excellent. Wheat moved lower again as reports of possible Russia-Ukraine discussions over safer shipping encouraged further liquidation. EU soft wheat exports reached 1.01 mmt by August 9, compared with 2.36 mmt last year, although current line-ups already indicated exports above 2.6 mmt. IKAR trimmed its Russian wheat crop forecast to 90.0 mmt and maintained export potential at 44.5 mmt. Attention then shifted to the August WASDE, where trade expectations pointed to a modest reduction in US corn yield and tighter corn stocks. Grain markets turned sharply higher after the WASDE and another escalation around Black Sea export infrastructure. Ukrainian strikes suspended operations at major grain terminals in Novorossiysk, while Russia attacked Izmail, Ukraine’s largest Danube grain port. USDA cut its first survey-based US corn yield estimate to 180.7 bu/acre from 183.0, while stronger exports and lower beginning stocks reduced 2026/27 ending stocks by 137 mbu to 1.653 bln bu. Wheat fundamentals were less changed, with US ending stocks at 717 mbu and global stocks rising slightly to 273.3 mmt. Ukraine also secured a 50% discount on Moldovan rail transit as it sought alternatives to disrupted Black Sea routes. Wheat remained highly volatile as disruption spread across Russian and Ukrainian export infrastructure. All three major Novorossiysk grain terminals were halted, representing around 75% of Russia’s Black Sea grain terminal capacity, while reports of damage at Ust-Luga extended the risk beyond the Black Sea. Ukrainian grain exports were down around 76% year on year in August as shipowners avoided ports, while low Danube water levels reduced the ability to redirect cargoes. Ukraine reportedly offered to halt attacks on civilian Black Sea targets if Russia reciprocated, although Moscow had not formally responded. US wheat export sales remained limited at 255.9k tonnes, while combined old- and new-crop corn sales reached 1.335 mmt. Wheat finished the week sharply higher as further Black Sea escalation added risk premium and corn also firmed. Russia rejected the proposed Black Sea moratorium, while Novorossiysk remained heavily constrained and the strike on Ust-Luga demonstrated the risks surrounding alternative Russian export routes. FranceAgriMer cut French maize ratings another 2 pp to 29% good to excellent, compared with 65% last year, while AGPM lowered its grain maize estimate to 7–8 mmt. Argentina exported a record 5.14 mmt of corn in July as buyers gained another supply option while Black Sea reliability deteriorated. Managed money entered the WASDE week net long 166.8k corn contracts, while the Chicago wheat net short increased to 31.4k contracts.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets rebounded at the start of the week, with wheat and corn moving higher after the previous week’s losses. Soybeans finished mixed despite rallying during the session on confirmed U.S. sales to China, while MATIF rapeseed also advanced. USDA lowered U.S. corn conditions by 2 pp to 61% good to excellent and kept soybean ratings at 63%, while spring wheat improved to 55%. U.S. export inspections reached 1.89 mmt for corn, 344k tonnes for soybeans and 335k tonnes for wheat. USDA also reported private soybean sales of 488k tonnes to China and 136k tonnes to unknown destinations. Markets reversed Monday’s recovery as weaker crude oil and favorable Midwest weather pressured grains and oilseeds. Wheat fell in Chicago and Paris, while corn declined despite weaker U.S. crop ratings and soybeans moved lower despite another 132k-tonne sale to China. Argentine grain were disrupted when maritime workers prevented vessels from entering and leaving grain ports, affecting 45 vessels before the government announced a deal. EU soft wheat exports reached 0.70 mmt by August 2, down 61% from last year, while barley exports were 82% lower at 0.31 mmt. Argus forecast the EU corn crop at 48 mmt, including a French crop of 6.9 mmt, a 50-year low. Wheat rebounded in Chicago and Paris after unconfirmed reports that Russia could temporarily close its Black Sea ports, although the reports were later played down. Corn and soybeans remained under pressure from favorable Midwest rain forecasts and a strong U.S. corn yield estimate, while rapeseed moved higher. StoneX projected U.S. corn production at 16.16 billion bushels with a yield of 184.8 bushels per acre and soybean production at 4.47 billion bushels. Non-commercial participants increased their MATIF wheat net long to 153.6k contracts, the highest level in more than three years. Algeria’s OAIC purchased around 720k tonnes of milling wheat. Wheat gave back part of Wednesday’s Black Sea-driven recovery, while corn, soybeans and rapeseed moved higher. U.S. weekly export sales totaled 296k tonnes of wheat, 1.44 mmt of corn and 936k tonnes of soybeans, with soybean sales disappointing and wheat near the lower end of expectations. USDA reported another 122k-tonne soybean sale to China. Expana reduced its EU corn production forecast to 49.1 mmt and soft wheat output to 126.8 mmt. EFKO confirmed that operations at its sunflower oil export terminal in Taman had been suspended following a drone attack, while a separate Russian attack damaged the wheat-loaded Mera Queen near Odesa, killing one crew member. Wheat rebounded strongly as renewed Black Sea shipping concerns restored part of the risk premium and a weaker dollar supported U.S. futures. Corn was modestly firmer, while soybeans also advanced. FranceAgriMer lowered French maize conditions another 3 pp to 31% good to excellent, while France’s farm ministry forecast maize production at 9.0 mmt, down 35% from last year and the lowest since at least 1980. USDA reported private sales of 238k tonnes of soybeans to China and 286k tonnes of corn to Mexico. China imported 11.48 mmt of soybeans in July, while Sinograin announced another auction of 516k tonnes of imported soybeans for August 12.