Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : The week began with a broad sell-off across grain markets. Corn and soybeans moved sharply lower, while wheat also remained under pressure ahead of renewed attention to U.S. crop conditions, weather forecasts and developments affecting Black Sea exports. Corn and soybeans recovered as weaker U.S. crop ratings provided support, while wheat markets were mixed. Brazil’s second corn harvest reached 58%, and wheat planting advanced to 98.8%. Ukraine had harvested 6.61 mmt of wheat and 3.49 mmt of barley. SovEcon reduced its Russian 2026/27 grain export forecast by 1.9 mmt to 44.6 mmt because of continuing navigation closures in the Sea of Azov. Russian Black Sea faced tighter execution conditions after three major export terminals restricted grain deliveries by truck amid rising shipping risks. EU soft wheat exports reached 0.57 mmt by July 26, down 61% from the previous year, while barley exports were 83% lower at 0.25 mmt. Wheat remained broadly stable and edged slightly lower, with Black Sea export concerns continuing to provide support. Corn and soybeans declined as favorable U.S. weather forecasts reduced crop concerns, while crude oil rose amid renewed Middle East tensions. Non-commercial participants increased their net long in MATIF milling wheat by 32.6k contracts to 144.5k, the highest level in more than two years. Indonesia raised its 2026 palm-oil-based biodiesel allocation to 16.75 billion litres ahead of the planned B50 mandate. Bunge said Argentina could increase soybean and sunflower oil supplies to customers affected by restrictions on Black Sea vegetable-oil availability. MATIF wheat opened sharply higher after reports of a drone attack on a Russian grain terminal, although most of the initial gains faded. Reduced EU crop forecasts helped European wheat close modestly higher, while U.S. wheat also advanced. Corn and soybeans moved lower as favorable Midwest weather and weaker crude oil weighed on prices. The European Commission cut EU common wheat production to 124.4 mmt and reduced its export forecast to 29 mmt. Corn production was lowered to 51.9 mmt, while sunflower seed production was reduced to 9.5 mmt. Ukraine struck four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, while a separate drone attack caused significant damage to Demetra’s grain export terminal at Taman. Grain markets ended the week under broad pressure. Wheat fell sharply in Chicago and Paris as the Black Sea rally faded and month-end positioning added selling pressure. Corn and soybeans also declined as favorable U.S. weather forecasts weighed on prices, while rapeseed followed weaker crude oil and the wider oilseed market. French soft wheat and spring barley harvesting reached 100%, while French maize conditions fell another 4 pp to 34% good to excellent. Commodity funds were net sellers across corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil during the week. China’s Sinograin sold around 249k tonnes of soybeans and announced another auction of 501k tonnes to create storage capacity for incoming U.S. cargoes.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook: The week opened with mixed grain markets. Corn followed soybeans higher, while CBOT wheat declined and MATIF wheat closed modestly firmer. US crop data showed soybean conditions improving by 1 pp to 66% good to excellent, while corn also gained 1 pp to 67%. Spring wheat conditions fell more sharply than expected, dropping 5 pp to 53%, and the winter wheat harvest reached 74% completion. USDA also reported private soybean sales to China and unknown destinations, together with corn sales to Colombia. Weekly export inspections were weak for wheat and especially soybeans. US spring wheat led Tuesday’s gains as dry weather and deteriorating crop conditions supported prices. Other US wheat contracts also advanced, while corn recovered from early losses despite better-than-expected condition ratings. MATIF wheat remained below the highs reached during its recent rally. Brazil’s second corn harvest reached 49.8% completion, while wheat planting advanced to 97.4%. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat forecast from 88.9 mmt to 88.3 mmt. Initial results from the North Dakota crop tour placed southern spring wheat yields at 46.0 bushels per acre, below last year but slightly above the five-year average. Grain markets moved higher again, with wheat supported by continued attacks around the Black Sea and new restrictions at Novorossiysk. Russia introduced a temporary night curfew on vessel traffic at the port, limiting movements between midnight and 5 a.m. MATIF wheat joined the rally, while corn and soybeans also closed higher alongside firmer crude oil. EU soft wheat reached 0.47 mmt as of July 19, up 252k tonnes from the previous report but below 0.86 mmt a year earlier. Non-commercial participants increased their net long in MATIF milling wheat to 111.9k contracts, the highest level in more than two years, while their rapeseed net long rose to 72.4k contracts. Wheat fell sharply across US and European markets, giving back part of the earlier gains, while corn finished unchanged and soybeans moved higher. Black Sea shipping risks remained in focus, although Ukraine’s agriculture minister denied reports that mechanisms were being discussed to secure exports from the Big Odesa ports. Allseeds halted operations in the Odesa region because of the attacks. France’s soft wheat harvest reached 99% completion, while maize conditions declined to 38% good to excellent. Funds sold 11.5k wheat contracts on Friday but remained net buyers of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over the full week. Expana reduced its EU soybean and sunflower seed production forecasts, while IKAR projected Russia’s 2026 grain crop at 139 mmt, including 90 mmt of wheat.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat prices gave back Friday’s gains as the market assessed how long restrictions in the Sea of Azov could continue. The disruption remained a source of risk, although Russia had other ports available to redirect cargoes. Corn and soybeans closed higher alongside a surge in oil prices after the US announced plans to reinstate its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a 20% charge on other cargoes using the waterway. US crop conditions improved, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans 65%, both 1 pp higher over the week. Spring wheat ratings also increased to 58%, while the winter wheat harvest reached 67% completion. Wheat recovered from early losses as continued attacks on vessels and infrastructure around Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor supported prices. Russia said it would reroute grain exports through other Black Sea and Baltic ports to meet its commitments, although this would increase transport costs. US wheat futures outperformed MATIF as the dollar weakened following lower-than-expected inflation data. CONAB raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 141.73 mmt but reduced its wheat estimate to 6.03 mmt. EU Commission data placed soft wheat exports at 0.21 mmt as of July 12, although vessel lineups indicated volumes closer to 0.9 mmt. Wheat futures rose strongly as shipowners increasingly avoided Ukrainian Black Sea ports and some existing bookings were reviewed or cancelled. Traders also paused new purchases while reassessing insurance, freight and execution risks. Attention remained focused on Russian export flows from Novorossiysk, particularly during the period when the country’s wheat programme normally accelerates. France’s farm ministry estimated the soft wheat crop at 32 mmt, only 4% below last year despite the earlier heat wave. Non-commercial participants also moved from a net short of 9.7k MATIF wheat contracts to a net long of 23.6k contracts. Wheat reversed lower after reaching multi-month highs as traders reduced part of the Black Sea risk premium. Germany’s DRV lowered its 2026 wheat production estimate to 21.89 mmt from 22.63 mmt in June because of heat and limited rainfall. FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports at 14.4 mmt and ending stocks at 3.65 mmt, but did not publish a corn SnD . US weekly export sales reached 235k tonnes of wheat, 626k tonnes of corn and 1.96 mmt of soybeans, with wheat and corn sales below market expectations. Drought affected 19% of US corn, 18% of soybeans and 24% of spring wheat acreage. Grain markets ended the week higher, led by wheat, as attacks and shipping restrictions in the Black Sea continued. Renewed US-Iran tensions also pushed Brent crude above $90. The French soft wheat harvest advanced by 33 pp to 92% complete, while French corn condition ratings fell another 6 pp to 41%. Weather forecasts indicated continued stress for French corn, cooler conditions across much of Europe and unwanted rain in northern Poland and the Baltics. Managed money increased its net long in Chicago corn by 30.7k contracts to 43.4k and reduced its net short in Chicago wheat by 25.5k contracts to 36.8k.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.