Weekly Freight Recap: 28/08/25

Overview

The dry bulk market maintained firm momentum this week across all major segments, with Handysize, Supramax, and Panamax indices showing gains. Stronger sentiment in both Atlantic and Pacific basins was underpinned by tight tonnage lists in key regions and renewed demand for grains, coal, and industrial commodities. Period activity remained steady, adding further support to market confidence.

Handysize

The Handysize segment continued its upward trajectory, with the BHSI advancing to 735 and the 7TC average climbing $182 to $13,236. Conditions in the Continent and Mediterranean stayed firm despite slow activity, while South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf markets gained momentum as charterers faced tighter tonnage. In Asia, activity was quieter but sentiment remained positive. Fixtures highlighted steady demand, including trips ex-Mississippi River and EC Mexico, with rates holding in the mid-to-high $14,000s to $20,000s range.

Supramax

The Supramax market strengthened further, with the BSI reaching 1,437 and the 11TC average closing at $18,165, later rising to $18,291. The Atlantic remained active, supported by fresh demand in the Continent–Mediterranean and firming fundamentals in the South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf. Asia showed renewed enquiry, driving rates above last done, particularly for Indonesia–China and Arabian Gulf–India routes. Period activity was firm, with several 2–6 month fixtures concluded at rates between $13,000 and $19,000, underscoring owners’ bullish stance.

Panamax

The Panamax market carried forward its constructive tone, with the BPI timecharter average rising by $502 to close at $16,865. Gains were supported by strong coal and grain demand from both Atlantic and Pacific basins. North Atlantic trans-Atlantic trips commanded rates into the $20,000s, while EC South America remained well supported, though some charterers stepped back as the week progressed. In Asia, firmer bids emerged on the back of NoPac grain flows and Australian coal demand, keeping sentiment buoyant. Period fixtures also remained active, with rates between $14,500 and $16,000 concluded.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• Handysize and Supramax segments supported by tightening tonnage in U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic

• Continent–Mediterranean firmer on fresh demand

• Panamax trans-Atlantic trips achieving rates in $20,000s, though South America shows signs of cooling

Pacific Basin

• Handysize activity quieter but sentiment firm

• Supramax demand strong on Indonesia–China and Arabian Gulf–India routes

• Panamax buoyed by NoPac grain and Australian coal flows, sentiment positive

Handysize-Specific Notes

• Continent–Mediterranean balanced but firmer

• South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf momentum driven by tightening tonnage

• Asia steady, supported by healthy cargo volumes despite quieter fixing

Trade & Infrastructure Developments

Trump Administration Orders “Stop Work” on 80% Installed Offshore Wind Farm The U.S. Department of the Interior ordered a halt on Ørsted and BlackRock’s Revolution Wind project, already 80% complete, citing national security concerns. The project, with 45 of 65 turbines installed, was scheduled to begin supplying 704 MW of power by 2026. The decision highlights growing uncertainty for offshore wind under the Trump administration, with potential legal proceedings underway and further reviews announced on turbine manufacturing.

Kenny Vieth on Today’s Market: “I Wish I Had Better News” At the 2025 MEMA Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, ACT Research President Kenny Vieth highlighted the impact of tariffs and inflation on U.S. fleets. Rising steel, aluminum, and copper costs have pushed tariffs to 18.6%, with freight volumes declining amid weak manufacturing and housing demand. Spot rates remain flat, profitability is at its weakest since 2008–2009, and recovery is not expected before mid-2026. Analysts stress that fleets should prepare buffers and adapt supply chains while long-term replacement demand continues to build.

Outlook

• Panamax support tied to grain flows from South America and coal demand in both basins

• Atlantic Basin buoyed by tight tonnage in U.S. Gulf and North Atlantic

• Asia-Pacific sentiment firm on steady cargo flows ex-NoPac and Australia

• Infrastructure and tariff disruptions in the U.S. add uncertainty to broader freight and logistics outlook