Weekly Freight Recap: 25/09/25

Overview

The dry bulk market showed a split tone. Handysize remained constructive on selective strength, Supramax was steady-to-softer with Atlantic support offset by Pacific pressure, and Panamax firmed on the day with more activity in both basins. Regional dynamics were shaped by tight spots in North Pacific Handysize supply, steadier U.S. Gulf/South Atlantic demand, and Pacific Panamax coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week alongside weather-related congestion.

Handysize

It was a more active session overall with positive sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals. The BHSI closed at 824 and the 7TC average gained to $14,834. Europe held firm despite limited visible fixing; the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic showed a livelier tone but rates were broadly steady. Asia stayed resilient on a North Pacific tonnage shortage. Illustrative fixtures included Houston–UKC petcoke around the mid-$20,000s/day and Santos-based short period reported around the mid-$17,000s. Elsewhere, selective Atlantic route strength was seen with Paranaguá/Santos to USG grains near the low-$20,000s/day, while quieter Pacific lists built in Southeast Asia and the North Pacific.

Supramax

Atlantic sentiment remained broadly positive—helped by steady demand in the U.S. Gulf and firmer tones further north—though some views in the South Atlantic turned cautious. In contrast, Asia moved lower again as limited fresh inquiry and prompt tonnage buildup kept charterers in control. The 11TC edged down, with Atlantic fixtures illustrating continued employment (e.g., West Africa/Med and North Africa–West Africa clinker/corn runs), while Indian Ocean rounds were reported at softer levels.

Panamax

The market diverged by basin. The Atlantic struggled for momentum with limited new inquiry and growing lists, but trans-Atlantic routes still posted gains as charterers competed for scarce prompt units. The Pacific was more active, supported by steady Indonesia/Australia demand, pre-Golden Week coverage, and typhoon-related congestion tightening supply; benchmark averages ticked up on publishing. Selected fixtures spanned ECSA aps attempts for Med delivery and North Atlantic trips via USG to Skaw-Gib, while Asia saw multiple Australia rounds concluded in the mid-teens to high-teens range.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• Handysize was firm in the Continent and Mediterranean, while the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic were more active with selective route strength.

• Supramax was supported in the U.S. Gulf and North Atlantic, though sentiment in the South Atlantic was more balanced with sparser tonnage.

• Panamax saw limited momentum in the North Atlantic, but trans-Atlantic routes firmed on tight prompt supply despite softer overall inquiry.

Pacific Basin

• Handysize was resilient in the North Pacific on tighter supply, while Southeast Asia was quieter with tonnage building.

• Supramax remained softer as prompt supply outweighed demand, with Indian Ocean rounds reported at lower levels.

• Panamax held steady with Indonesia and Australia demand, pre-Golden Week coverage, and typhoon-related congestion tightening supply.

Handysize-Specific Notes

• Continent/Mediterranean: Stable with a slightly firmer bias and limited visible activity.

• South Atlantic/U.S. Gulf: More active tone; selective routes firmer (e.g., Brazil to USG grains).

• Asia: Resilient where North Pacific tonnage is tight; elsewhere lists are building and activity is quieter.

Rail Tariffs & Global Logistics Headwinds

Exclusive—Ukrainian Railways plans freight tariff increase to tackle debt Ukrainian Railways outlined a recovery plan under government review that includes higher freight tariffs amid lower cargo volumes and escalating war-related costs. The company cited reduced coal, ore, and grain flows since early 2022, deferred Eurobond payments, rising power and fuel costs, and the need for new revenue sources. Some industrial customers warned that increases could not be passed through.

Shipping faces ‘stormy seas’ as trade slows and costs rise UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025 flagged fragile growth with a 0.5% seaborne trade rise expected in 2025, rerouting pressures from Red Sea/Hormuz tensions, elevated and volatile freight costs, port congestion, and lagging digitalisation. Emissions increased in 2024, with limited alternative-fuel readiness, and seafarer abandonment cases reached a record high. Policy priorities include stable trade rules, greener infrastructure, faster digitalisation, and support for vulnerable economies.

Outlook

• Panamax: Pacific momentum supported by Indonesia/Australia demand, pre-Golden Week cover, and weather-driven congestion; Atlantic recovery contingent on fresh inquiry and tonnage balance.

• Supramax: Atlantic to remain comparatively steadier; Pacific pressure persists amid limited enquiry and prompt supply.

• Handysize: Positive bias sustained by selective Atlantic strength and North Pacific tightness; quieter Southeast Asia and NP lists temper upside.

• Infrastructure & Trade Backdrop: Potential Ukrainian rail tariff adjustments and broader cost headwinds highlighted by UNCTAD remain relevant to inland logistics and maritime cost structures.