Weekly Freight Recap: 2/10/25

Overview

The dry bulk market displayed mixed conditions, with Handysize maintaining its upward momentum, Supramax undergoing further corrections, and Panamax continuing to weaken across both basins. Atlantic activity showed some resilience in smaller segments, while Asia was muted due to regional holidays. Broader sentiment in larger segments remained under pressure, influenced by excess tonnage and soft FFA signals.

Handysize

The Handysize market continued its upward trend, with the BHSI closing at 860 and the 7TC average rising $78 to $15,478. In the Continent and Mediterranean, fundamentals stayed firm, supported by fresh demand despite limited reported fixtures. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf held a positive tone, with stronger demand pushing rates higher. In Asia, trading slowed with the onset of China’s autumn holiday, but rates managed to hold steady. Fixtures included activity on fertiliser runs out of Antwerp and grains ex-Baltic into the Mediterranean, as well as East African positions moving towards the Med in the mid-teens.

Supramax

Supramax sentiment remained under pressure, with the 11TC average slipping by $87 to $18,537. Atlantic activity showed some resilience, particularly from the Continent where scrap demand lent support, though U.S. Gulf fronthaul momentum appeared to wane. The South Atlantic remained balanced with little change. In Asia, the long holiday period kept trading subdued, and the tonnage list weighed on rates across regional and Indian Ocean markets. Reported fixtures included rounds from the Philippines to Australia at $16,500, India-related trips in the mid-$16,000s, and fronthaul petcoke runs out of Umm Qasr at levels in the upper $18,000s. Period interest was noted but with wide bid-offer spreads, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Panamax

The Panamax market registered further losses, with the BPI timecharter average falling $464 to $15,521. In the Atlantic, thinning trans-Atlantic volumes and limited mineral demand kept pressure on rates, while fronthaul demand from the U.S. East Coast failed to offset the build-up of open ships. East Coast South America weakened further as charterers pushed levels down. In the Pacific, Golden Week left the market thin, with most Chinese demand already covered and fresh fixtures concluding below last done. Notable fixtures included minerals ex-Kamsar to Europe at $17,500, and EC South America trips into Asia in the mid-$16,000s. Pacific rounds also saw softer returns, with ships in North China fixed in the low-to-mid $15,000s range.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• Handysize supported by steady demand in South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf

• Supramax steady in Continent and Mediterranean, though U.S. Gulf fronthaul easing

• Panamax under pressure with limited mineral and fronthaul demand

Pacific Basin

• Handysize flat through regional holidays

• Supramax weighed down by prompt tonnage, Indian Ocean steady but softening

• Panamax activity thin during Golden Week, rates concluded below last done

Handysize-Specific Notes

• Continent and Mediterranean buoyed by new demand despite limited fixtures

• South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf holding firm with stronger sentiment

• Asia stable despite holiday lull

Trade & Infrastructure Developments

Dry cargo rates suffer after talk of Chinese ban on iron ore purchases Reports emerged that China Mineral Resources Group has asked major steelmakers and traders to halt purchases of BHP’s dollar-denominated iron ore cargoes. The Baltic Dry Index fell more than 7% to 1,980 points, its lowest in nearly a month, while capesize indices dropped sharply. The move comes amid price negotiations between BHP and Chinese buyers, following a series of unsuccessful meetings. The news triggered concern from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, particularly as BHP has already reported its weakest profit in five years due to softer Chinese demand.

Wärtsilä says carriers’ enthusiasm for methanol engines is levelling out According to Wärtsilä Marine, orders for methanol-capable ship engines have flattened after several years of sharp growth. The main limitation is the availability of green methanol, with most current supply derived from natural gas. DNV data shows that while methanol-powered ships have increased to 117 in 2025, growth may stagnate at around 435 by 2033. Container carriers lead the orderbook, with Maersk holding more than three-quarters of the fleet. Meanwhile, ammonia-fuel technology is expected to develop more slowly, with the first vessels likely by 2026. Industry outlook remains dependent on regulatory certainty, fuel supply, and infrastructure expansion, with the IMO’s upcoming Net Zero Framework vote set to play a key role.

Outlook

• Handysize momentum remains supported by fresh demand in the Atlantic

• Supramax sentiment expected to remain cautious amid Asian holiday lull and wide bid-offer spreads

• Panamax under pressure, with excess tonnage and limited support from FFAs