Weekly Freight Recap: 16/10/25

Overview

Dry bulk sentiment was mixed this week as physical markets struggled to keep pace with more optimistic paper levels. Atlantic markets were largely steady with selective gains, while Pacific sentiment held firmer amid steady regional demand, though overall fixing volumes remained moderate.

Handysize

Atlantic: Handysize conditions in the Atlantic were uneven, with sentiment shaped by regional disparities. The Continent and Mediterranean saw muted activity and marginal softening as limited fresh cargo weighed on rates. The South Atlantic also faced a quieter environment with thinning enquiry, while the U.S. Gulf bucked the trend with a slightly firmer tone, supported by steady grains and petcoke demand. Although fixing volumes were light, expectations of improved activity ahead helped temper downside pressure. Owners with well-positioned tonnage managed to resist major rate concessions, maintaining an overall steady outlook into the new week.

Pacific: The Pacific Handysize market remained balanced, holding firm against broader volatility. Sentiment was broadly stable as regional trade flows—particularly coal and steels—continued to underpin short-sea demand. A relatively tight supply of larger units in North Asia lent mild support to owners’ sentiment, even as fixing activity remained moderate. Charterers maintained a selective approach, but the equilibrium between supply and demand helped sustain rate stability. Market participants expect a gradual strengthening in the coming weeks as seasonal cargo demand builds and tonnage availability narrows across key loading areas.

Supramax

Atlantic: The Atlantic Supramax market held steady overall, though activity remained patchy. The U.S. Gulf was seen as having reached a floor, with tentative signs of improvement on front-haul routes. The South Atlantic showed early signs of recovery sentiment, though limited fresh enquiry kept rates largely stable. A generally balanced tonnage-to-cargo ratio prevented any major shifts in pricing, and owners with prompt positions continued to show flexibility to secure employment. Although the tone remained soft in parts, brokers noted growing confidence that the worst may have passed, especially as grain and mineral demand is expected to pick up later in the month.

Pacific: The Pacific maintained a more constructive tone throughout the week, underpinned by increased enquiry from Southeast Asia and North Pacific rounds. Activity levels were modest but steady, and sentiment improved slightly as charterers re-entered the market following recent holidays. Nonetheless, an ample pool of prompt tonnage limited upward momentum. The overall balance between demand and supply helped maintain market stability, with owners focusing on shorter, quick-return business to preserve earnings. While rates remained within a narrow band, a gradual tightening trend is expected as regional demand strengthens heading into late October.

Panamax

Atlantic: Panamax activity across the Atlantic began the week on a firm footing but soon encountered resistance as charterers adopted a more cautious stance. Despite a solid cargo flow from the Continent and East Coast South America, rates remained broadly flat amid a widening bid-offer gap. The transatlantic market saw decent enquiry but lacked the momentum to drive significant upward movement, constrained by an ample tonnage list and softer forward sentiment. While the South Atlantic retained underlying strength, particularly for later positions, a muted paper market curbed owners’ optimism. By midweek, sentiment leaned steady-to-soft as participants awaited clearer directional cues, though some resistance persisted from owners with well-positioned units.

Pacific: In the Pacific, trading was dominated by short-haul activity focused on Indonesia, with a high volume of coal and mineral stems maintaining market balance. However, the buoyant FFA sentiment seen earlier in the week failed to carry through into physical fixtures. Charterers remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainty linked to trade policy developments, keeping rates broadly rangebound. Despite this, the basin showed signs of resilience, supported by strong regional demand from East Coast Australia and Southeast Asia. Owners remained reluctant to concede further, with expectations that tightening vessel supply in late October could provide a firmer footing heading into the next week.