Agri- Commodities: 09-13/02/26

Monday The week started with prices mostly in the red, as the recent soybean rally appeared to lose momentum in a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact reaction. USDA confirmed private sales of 264k tons of US soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery, yet prices still moved lower. Weekly US export inspections showed solid corn and wheat movement, while soybeans lagged on a year-on-year basis. Russian 12.5% wheat FOB values held steady at $231 for March shipment, acting as a headwind for MATIF amid a stronger euro.

In currencies, Chinese regulators reportedly told major banks to limit new purchases of US Treasuries and reduce large positions due to concentration and volatility risks, briefly pressuring Treasuries, lifting yields, and nudging the dollar lower.

Tuesday The February WASDE offered few surprises and trading ranges were unusually narrow for a USDA day. US corn ending stocks were cut on stronger exports, while soybeans saw no changes to US supply and demand. Globally, wheat ending stocks were trimmed slightly, and corn stocks came in below expectations, giving corn a mildly supportive tone.

Attention now shifts to next week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum for the first official look at new-crop US balance sheets. Jordan purchased 120k tons of milling wheat, and EU soft wheat exports reached 13.43 mmt, with line-up indications suggesting shipments are already nearing 17 mmt.

Wednesday Wheat, particularly Chicago, outperformed midweek as funds continued to reduce still-large net short positions. Corn and soybeans were mixed. FranceAgriMer raised French soft wheat exports within the EU but cut third-country exports, increasing ending stocks. Reports also surfaced of a wheat and barley shipment from France to Algeria, potentially marking the first wheat movement since July 2024.

USDA reported private corn sales to unknown destinations, while Argentina’s soybean estimate was raised slightly. In the US, January jobs data surprised to the upside with stronger hiring and wage growth, which pressured EUR/USD.

Thursday While major US equity indices, metals, and oil markets plunged, agricultural futures closed higher across the board. Chicago wheat reached a 12-week high on continued short covering, although MATIF remained within its broader range.

Market sentiment was also influenced by reports that China confirmed it is in talks with the US about a possible April Trump visit to Beijing, with both sides considering extending their trade truce and potentially rolling back tariffs for up to a year. CONAB adjusted Brazil’s crop estimates, trimming corn slightly while raising soybeans, and US weekly export sales showed another strong week for corn.

Friday Grains ended Friday mostly lower, though the complex still posted weekly gains. Wheat faced pressure from improved French crop ratings and IKAR raising Russia’s 2026 wheat production forecast to 91 mmt. India approved exports of 2.5 mmt of wheat and 0.5 mmt of wheat products, though its competitiveness remains limited.

The CFTC report showed a sharp increase in the soybean net long following renewed talk of additional Chinese demand. Corn shorts were reduced, while Chicago wheat’s net short increased slightly before likely being trimmed later in the week.