Weekly Freight Recap: 19/02/2026

Overview

The dry bulk market opened the week with a generally subdued tone, influenced by ongoing Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and mixed regional sentiment. While the Atlantic basins showed pockets of resilience across segments, Asian activity remained muted with limited fresh enquiry and ample tonnage supply. Panamax displayed a clear Atlantic–Pacific divergence, and period interest provided selective support in both Panamax and Supramax. Broader market commentary points to firm grain exports and constructive expectations for Q1, particularly in Panamax and Capesize.

Handysize

Handysize experienced another lacklustre session, as widespread Lunar New Year holidays continued to weigh on Asian demand. Sentiment in Asia remained weak, with limited fresh enquiry and plentiful vessel availability.

In contrast, the Atlantic showed firmer undertones. Brokers reported sustained interest from the Continent, and demand from East Coast South America was described as fairly healthy, although some felt that a ceiling may have been reached. The US Gulf remained firm, though fresh fixing information was limited.

Fixtures reflected selective Atlantic activity. The ASL Leban fixed from Aratu for two to three laden legs with Atlantic redelivery at $19,000, while the Lila II was rumoured on subjects from Sfax for a Black Sea trip in the low teens. Despite mixed fundamentals, the 7TC average closed up $146 at $12,492.

Supramax

The Supramax sector continued in a muted vein, with limited fresh enquiry across key regions. In the US Gulf, the recent push lost momentum and brokers reported that lower numbers were being discussed. The South Atlantic was described as finely balanced, with fronthaul interest showing signs of slowing.

The Continent and Mediterranean remained relatively supportive, though fresh fixing information was scarce. In Asia, activity was mixed, with some coal and minor bulk business reported, but overall momentum remained patchy amid holiday disruptions.

Atlantic fixtures included grain, steel, scrap and cement runs, while Indian Ocean business featured coal and manganese ore with ballast bonuses attached. Period activity showed signs of picking up, with a few fixtures reported for short period up to one year. The 11TC average edged down $45 to $15,092.

Panamax

Panamax began the week with a pronounced Atlantic–Pacific split. In the Atlantic, momentum eased as activity slowed and prompt demand softened. Vessel supply became more evenly balanced, sentiment turned cautious, and bid–offer gaps widened. Fronthaul and East Coast South America activity remained subdued, and rates on major routes appeared to be levelling out, with P1A slipping further.

By contrast, the Pacific continued to show renewed strength despite the holiday period. Steady cargo flow, tight prompt availability in parts of Asia and improving period interest underpinned a firmer tone. Gains in P3A reflected this regional support, while the strengthening environment also lent support to the backhaul market, with P4 moving higher. A period fixture was reported for the Mint for six to eight months in the $19,000s. The P5TC average closed higher at $16,132.

Overall fundamentals were described as healthy, with expectations that Pacific strength could carry into a more constructive post-Lunar New Year environment.

Regional Pulse

Atlantic Basin

• Handysize supported by Continent and EC South America demand

• Supramax US Gulf softer; South Atlantic finely balanced

• Panamax sentiment easing as prompt demand slows and supply balances

• Limited fresh fixing information across several routes

Pacific Basin

• Handysize and Supramax impacted by Lunar New Year holidays

• Panamax firm on steady cargo flow and tight prompt availability

• Period interest improving, supporting backhaul activity

Handysize-Specific Notes

• Continent interest remains steady

• EC South America demand fairly healthy, though upside may be capped

• US Gulf firm but with limited new fixtures

• Asian market subdued amid plentiful tonnage and holiday slowdown

Trade & Freight Drivers

Surge in grain exports gives dry bulk a good start to the year

According to analysis from BIMCO, 2026 has started strongly for global grain transport. Total grain exports rose by 15% in the first six weeks of the year, driven in particular by a 30% increase in global soybean exports and a 17% rise in wheat exports.

The trade agreement between the US and China contributed to a 26% year-on-year increase in US soybean shipments and a resumption of sorghum shipments. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to rise to a record 180 million tons, corresponding to around 42% of global production.

BIMCO noted that smaller vessel segments, particularly Panamax, have benefited from the export surge during an otherwise weaker period linked to lower Chinese imports. Panamax rates were reported significantly higher year-on-year. Looking ahead, grain shipments are forecast to rise 5–6% in 2026, though uncertainties remain around wheat planting and Brazilian maize output.

Dry freight bull run may continue on expected trade growth

Data from S&P Global showed that dry bulk freight rates strengthened in Q4 2025, defying typical seasonal softness. The Platts Capesize T4 Index averaged $26,913 per day in Q4, well above the previous year, while the Platts KMAX9 Panamax Index also recorded substantial year-on-year gains.

The Capesize segment was supported by strong iron ore and bauxite volumes, particularly from West Africa. Increased output from Guinea, including the Simandou project, is expected to help offset seasonal weakness in Brazilian iron ore exports during Q1. Market participants suggested that higher West Africa volumes could reduce earnings volatility.

In Panamax, robust Indonesian coal demand and strong grain exports from the Pacific Northwest and Australia underpinned Q4 gains. Market sources expressed confidence that momentum may continue into Q1 2026, supported by Chinese soybean buying and the start of Brazil’s new harvest exports. Some participants noted the potential for a cape-split effect if Capesize rates remain firm.

In Supramax, market participants indicated that Chinese coal demand is expected to remain supported through winter, with pre-Lunar New Year buying activity potentially providing short-term strength, though some cautioned that thermal coal demand alone may not sustain the segment through the entire quarter.

Outlook

• Panamax performance influenced by ongoing Atlantic–Pacific divergence

• Grain export growth supporting smaller vessel segments, particularly Panamax

• West Africa iron ore and bauxite volumes shaping Capesize Q1 dynamics

• Lunar New Year holidays continuing to weigh on near-term Asian activity