Agri- Commodities: 16-20/03/26

Monday

Grains started the week under pressure, led by soybeans, which moved sharply lower alongside easing oil prices. Wheat and corn followed the weaker tone, while broader financial markets pointed to improving risk appetite, with equities higher and volatility declining. FX markets remained active ahead of central bank decisions, as the euro recovered and the Russian ruble weakened further.

Geopolitics remained central. Mixed signals around US–China relations and the Iran conflict added uncertainty, while strong US crush data failed to support soybeans. Oil prices softened as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued, easing immediate supply fears. Russian wheat FOB values edged higher, while export inspections showed strong corn and wheat flows but continued weakness in soybeans.

Tuesday

Markets were mixed, with wheat extending losses, soybeans stabilizing after Monday’s sharp decline, and corn holding relatively steady. Without continued strength in energy, grains struggled to maintain upward momentum. Oil remained volatile, briefly moving higher on concerns over tanker protection before easing again.

Trade developments stayed in focus. The delay of the Trump–Xi meeting pushed expectations for Chinese soybean demand further out. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year, supported by strong lineups. Russian wheat prices firmed alongside a weakening ruble, while Jordan’s tender confirmed steady import demand.

Wednesday

Grains turned higher midweek, driven by renewed strength in energy markets. Kansas wheat led gains, supported both by oil-linked momentum and growing concerns over dryness in US HRW regions. Corn followed, with rising fertilizer costs adding to production uncertainty.

The geopolitical situation escalated significantly, with strikes on energy infrastructure increasing risks to global supply. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised inflation expectations, highlighting the macro impact of the conflict. At the same time, speculative positioning in wheat and rapeseed continued to build, reinforcing the upward move.

Thursday

Energy markets remained highly volatile, with Brent trading in a wide range before easing on potential US measures to release Iranian crude. European gas prices surged, pointing to higher fertilizer costs, while US energy markets remained more stable. Currency movements added further volatility, influencing the competitiveness of European grains.

Policy and supply developments were key. The ECB kept rates unchanged but warned of significant inflation risks tied to prolonged energy disruption. Ukraine signaled a possible expansion in rapeseed area driven by biodiesel demand, while Russian wheat production forecasts were revised higher. At the same time, US export sales weakened notably as higher prices reduced demand, and drought conditions continued to weigh on the US winter wheat outlook.

Friday

Markets weakened into the end of the week, with Kansas wheat falling sharply on improved weather forecasts. More broadly, grains showed early signs of decoupling from oil, suggesting a shift in market drivers after weeks of strong correlation.

Geopolitical tensions intensified further over the weekend, with escalating rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy risk elevated. Inflation concerns continued to build, with ECB officials signaling potential policy tightening if conditions worsen. In fundamentals, French wheat conditions remained strong, while fund positioning showed continued buying in corn but a shift toward selling in soybeans and only limited reduction in wheat shorts.