Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grains started the week higher, with corn and soybeans leading as expectations around the Trump-Xi meeting brought Chinese demand back into focus. Wheat also gained after another weekend of Russia-Ukraine strikes, while Black Sea deep-water exports remained heavily disrupted. Russia continued redirecting grain through Baltic ports and planned to begin using Murmansk in October. Russian 12.5% wheat for November fell to $268/t FOB Vysotsk/Ust-Luga, while wheat, barley and corn export duties were formally reduced to zero through year-end. US corn inspections remained strong at 1.94 mmt, while wheat inspections fell to 335k tonnes. reached 13% and soybean harvest 12%, both ahead of their five-year averages. Grains gave back much of Monday’s rally as traders waited for clearer signals from US-China talks and Black Sea diplomacy. Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop estimate was raised to a record 66.0 mmt, while soybean production was forecast at 53.6 mmt and wheat at 23.4 mmt. Jordan purchased 60k tonnes of wheat at $332/t C&F for first-half November, around $13/t above its August purchase. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.30 mmt by September 20, 2% above last year, although line-ups indicated actual execution closer to 8 mmt. Crude oil continued to ease as improved Saudi flows and possible US-Iran talks reduced some of the recent macro support for grains. Grain markets remained under pressure ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, with wheat briefly testing a one-month low. COCERAL cut its EU soft wheat production forecast by 1.03 mmt to 126.24 mmt and reduced corn by 4.12 mmt to 48.63 mmt, almost 8 mmt below last year. Tunisia purchased 125k tonnes of soft wheat at $311.72–314.23/t C&F and 75k tonnes of feed barley at $304.23–307.62/t. MATIF non-commercial participants reduced their wheat net long by 8k contracts to 212.9k, although positioning remained historically elevated. MATIF wheat led the decline after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver new agricultural purchase commitments. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, but China’s additional 10% soybean tariff remained in place. Turkey continued efforts to revive a Black Sea grain corridor, although Russia had not agreed to a deal and attacks continued. US wheat export sales reached only 268k tonnes, while corn sales fell to 838k tonnes. Bangladesh also booked more than 200k tonnes of Indian wheat following India’s removal of export restrictions in August, marking its first sizeable purchases from the country since 2022. Wheat finished the week lower but recovered from its intraday lows as Black Sea corridor expectations again competed with continued attacks on logistics and vessels. China announced tariff reductions on a broad range of US agricultural goods, including corn, wheat and sorghum, while soybeans remained subject to the additional 10% duty. Attention also shifted toward USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports, with traders expecting the US wheat crop near 1.524 bln bushels. Managed money remained heavily long corn at 414.4k contracts, while SRW wheat moved further into a net short. France’s maize harvest advanced sharply to 45% complete, compared with 27% a week earlier and 13% last year.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat experienced another volatile session as reports of a possible halt to attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure triggered profit-taking. MATIF closed lower, although a weaker euro provided some support. Russian Baltic wheat prices declined to $274/t FOB, while southern export routes remained heavily constrained. US corn export inspections reached 1.53 mmt, while wheat inspections improved to 457k tonnes but remained well below last year. US corn conditions unexpectedly improved by 1 pp to 57% good to excellent, with harvest progress reaching 8%, ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat harvest reached 93%, while winter wheat planting advanced to 8%. Wheat and corn recovered from early weakness as another surge in crude oil supported agricultural commodities, while fading hopes for an immediate Black Sea de-escalation helped wheat regain ground. Algeria purchased around 500–510k tonnes of milling wheat at $319–321/t C&F for November shipment, approximately $30/t above its August purchase. France reduced its 2026 grain maize production forecast to 8.1 mmt from 9.0 mmt, while CONAB raised to 144.0 mmt and projected a record 148.0 mmt for 2026/27. EU soft wheat exports reached 5.61 mmt by September 13, although internal line-ups indicated shipments closer to 7.3 mmt. Grain markets remained volatile, with wheat supported by importer demand and continued Black Sea export restrictions, while corn traded within a narrow range ahead of more reliable US harvest results. FranceAgriMer lowered French soft wheat export forecasts to 6.3 mmt outside the EU and 7.1 mmt within the bloc, while ending stocks fell to 3.01 mmt. Ukraine began winter wheat planting, with the agriculture ministry expecting area to decline to around 4.5 mha from 4.7 mha last season. Pakistan's 750k-tonne wheat tender attracted a lowest offer of $348.83/t C&F, although no purchase had been reported. Canadian wheat production was estimated at 36.1 mmt, while MATIF non-commercial participants increased their net long to a record 220.9k contracts. Grains finished lower but recovered from their intraday lows as renewed Black Sea attacks and diplomatic developments pulled wheat in both directions. Turkey circulated a draft proposal to stop attacks on civilian shipping, although no agreement had been reached. Russia damaged a bridge connecting Ukrainian grain-producing regions to Danube ports, while an attack on a Tanzanian-flagged vessel killed its captain. Pakistan continued negotiating lower wheat prices after receiving offers for its 750k-tonne tender. The IGC increased its global wheat production estimate to 820 mmt but reduced corn production to 1.301 billion tonnes. US export sales reached 326k tonnes of wheat, 1.03 mmt of corn and 1.70 mmt of soybeans. Argentina's corn planting advanced to 11.1%, while wheat conditions remained favourable. Grain markets ended the week lower, with wheat leading the decline as profit-taking continued despite persistent Black Sea export restrictions. FranceAgriMer reduced French maize conditions to just 23% good to excellent, down from 26% and the lowest in its reporting series. Harvest progress reached 27%, compared with a five-year average of 5%. Managed money reduced its Chicago wheat position to a small net short of 4.7k contracts, while corn remained heavily held at approximately 426.8k contracts net long. Pakistan purchased 365k tonnes of the 750k tonnes sought in its wheat tender at $348.83/t C&F, while its remaining requirements continued to attract attention.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : European wheat recovered in a thin session as US markets were closed for Labor Day, with MATIF supported by limited progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Saudi Arabia cancelled its 535k-tonne wheat tender after judging offers too expensive following the Black Sea rally. Latvia also announced plans for a 300% tariff on grain arriving from Russia and Belarus, although it remained unclear whether transit cargoes would be included. Brent traded near $97/bbl amid renewed US-Iran tensions and slower Hormuz traffic, increasing bunker and freight costs. US wheat initially rallied as Chicago caught up with Monday’s MATIF move before giving back part of the gains. Pakistan entered the wheat market for 750k tonnes, providing another test of replacement values while Black Sea availability remained constrained. EU soft wheat exports reached 4.92 mmt by September 6, compared with internal line-ups of 5.74 mmt. US corn inspections remained strong at 1.66 mmt, while crop conditions slipped another point to 56% good to excellent. StoneX also lowered its US corn yield estimate to 182.9 bpa. Wheat and corn moved lower despite further attacks around Black Sea infrastructure as renewed discussion of US-mediated peace talks encouraged profit-taking. Ukrainian drones struck port infrastructure at Makhachkala on the Caspian Sea, while damage was also reported around Novorossiysk. Argentina’s wheat forecast was raised to 21.0 mmt, while MATIF non-commercial net length increased to a record 216.8k contracts. Jordan reportedly purchased 50k tonnes of feed barley at $318.5/t CnF, compared with $252.6/t in July, highlighting the sharp increase in nearby replacement values. Grain markets moved higher ahead of WASDE as energy prices surged again. Brent settled at $107.63/bbl after tanker attacks intensified and risks increased around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia tendered for 535k tonnes of milling wheat, while US new-crop corn export sales reached 1.99 mmt and wheat sales totaled 314k tonnes. French wheat quality remained strong, with 89% above 11% protein and 53% classified as premium grade. Grains came under pressure following the September WASDE. USDA reduced the US corn yield to 178.5 bpa from 180.7 and lowered ending stocks to 1.567 bln bushels, although both remained above market expectations. Global wheat stocks increased to 276.29 mmt despite USDA cutting Russian exports by 3 mmt and Ukrainian exports by 1 mmt. French corn conditions declined again to 26% good to excellent, while harvest reached 9%. Algeria also issued a tender for November soft wheat, providing another test of replacement values following the recent rally

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat pulled back after Turkey said it had prepared a plan for safe Black Sea grain passage and was in contact with Russia and Ukraine, prompting profit-taking after the previous week’s contract highs. No agreement had been reached, however, and Black Sea loadings remained heavily disrupted. Corn retained stronger support, with US crop conditions unchanged at 57% good to excellent and export inspections reaching 1.50 mmt, taking marketing-year shipments 25% above last year. ABARES raised Australian wheat production to 29.9 mmt from 26.7 mmt and barley production to 16.4 mmt. Wheat moved to fresh highs after Russia rejected another attempt to de-escalate Black Sea attacks and fresh strikes damaged infrastructure in Odesa. Renewed US-Iran fighting also lifted energy markets, with Brent settling at $94.65/bbl and WTI at $90.22. EU soft wheat exports were reported at 4.16 mmt by August 30, only 0.16 mmt behind last year, although much of the weekly increase reflected delayed customs reporting rather than a sudden surge in shipments. Corn remained supported by US crop concerns despite some profit-taking across grain markets. Wheat and corn reached fresh contract highs before selling emerged later in the session. Russia suspended wheat, corn and barley export duties through December 31, although port access, vessel risk and freight remained the main constraints on Russian exports. Non-commercial participants increased their MATIF wheat net long by 51.9k contracts to 201.1k, while fund positioning in corn also remained elevated. Ukraine’s fell sharply in August, with grain exports at just 981k tonnes, down 58% y/y, as Black Sea disruption pushed volumes toward slower and more expensive alternatives. Germany’s wheat crop was estimated at 20.81 mmt, down 10.1%, while maize production was forecast at 3.75 mmt, down 24.2%. Wheat corrected sharply after comments from Putin raised the possibility of a peace agreement with Ukraine, encouraging profit-taking after the recent rally. Saudi Arabia tendered for 535k tonnes of milling wheat for November and December arrival. US new-crop corn export sales reached 1.99 mmt, while wheat sales were weaker at 314k tonnes. HRS sales included Egypt, an unusual destination as disrupted Black Sea supply continued to affect sourcing. Argentina began planting its 2026/27 corn crop, while the old-crop harvest reached 92.5% and wheat conditions remained broadly favourable. Wheat extended its correction as renewed peace efforts encouraged further liquidation, although talks between US envoys, Russia and Ukraine did not deliver an agreement. Latvia and Lithuania were considering restrictions on Russian grain exports through Baltic ports, potentially affecting routes Moscow had increasingly relied on as alternatives to the Black Sea. French maize conditions declined again to 27% good to excellent, while harvest reached 3% completion. Managed money increased its corn net long to 431.1k contracts, while Chicago wheat moved to a net long of 14.7k contracts for the first time in four months