Agri- Commodities: 16-20/02/26
Feb 23, 2026
Monday
With the US on holiday, MATIF wheat traded in narrow ranges on thin volume, while CBOT reopened lower as Friday’s negative tone carried over. Weekly US data releases are delayed by one day. According to IKAR, Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for March shipment rose slightly week on week.
Morocco expects its cereals harvest to nearly double after a very wet winter, though storms have congested major ports and left around 70 wheat vessels waiting. USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum (Feb 19–20) is set to outline the first major “US corn vs soy” narrative ahead of planting. China remains largely absent due to Lunar New Year holidays, while new US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva face low expectations ahead of the February 24 invasion anniversary.
Tuesday
Soybeans posted small gains, supported by expectations of further Chinese demand and strong US crush data, while corn and wheat corrected lower. Geneva talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended day one without visible progress.
The European Commission updated EU export data, lifting soft wheat exports above last year’s level, partly due to a reclassification from durum. US export inspections showed solid corn demand and record January soybean crush from NOPA, reinforcing strength in domestic processing. Jordan passed on its latest wheat tender.
Wednesday
Markets were broadly firmer, led by US wheat as short covering accelerated amid geopolitical headlines and crop concerns. Soybeans faded intraday gains. Ukraine warned that ice crust damage could threaten winter crops following rapid temperature swings.
Ahead of the Agricultural Outlook Forum, analysts projected lower US corn acreage and higher soybean plantings for 2026. Oil prices jumped after US-Iran tensions intensified, while Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva ended abruptly with key territorial disputes unresolved. Fed minutes showed policymakers divided, preferring to pause rate cuts for now.
Thursday
Wheat extended its rally, breaking above key technical levels as short covering continued. US futures led gains on weather concerns, and MATIF milling wheat moved out of its recent range on strong volume.
USDA’s Outlook Forum projected planted area broadly in line with expectations. Corn ending stocks are seen tightening in 26/27, while soybean and wheat stocks remain stable. The US drought monitor showed nearly half of winter wheat areas affected by drought, while wildfires in the southern Plains underscored rising weather risks.
Friday
Wheat posted a third consecutive strong gain, with funds reducing remaining short exposure. May MATIF reached a three-month high, while Chicago climbed to levels not seen in several months. Corn followed higher, while soybeans slipped on US tariff headlines.
FranceAgriMer reported French crop ratings still well above last year despite a weekly decline. US export sales showed steady corn demand and softer wheat sales. Argentina’s rains improved crop conditions. The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs, prompting a temporary 15% tariff response under Section 122 ahead of the March 31 Beijing summit.
Weekly Recaps
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
23-27/03/26 AGRI
Mar 30, 2026
Grains started the week under pressure as a Trump headline triggered a sharp drop in oil and lifted broader financial markets. Wheat and corn followed lower but managed to recover from intraday lows as uncertainty around the announcement grew. Market direction remained tied to whether the situation signals a real de-escalation or only a temporary pause.
Freight
Freight Recap:
27/03/2026
Mar 27, 2026
The dry bulk market softened this week across all segments. Geared vessels remained under pressure, while Panamax lost the momentum seen earlier in March and moved back into line with the broader market. The key shift came from bunkers, which eased materially. This removed one of the few recent supports for freight, particularly in weaker basins where owners had relied on fuel costs to defend levels. At the same time, Atlantic grain regions remain oversupplied with prompt tonnage, keeping pressure on rates.
Commodities
Agri- Commodities:
16-20/03/26 AGRI
Mar 23, 2026
Grains started the week under pressure, led by soybeans, which moved sharply lower alongside easing oil prices. Wheat and corn followed the weaker tone, while broader financial markets pointed to improving risk appetite, with equities higher and volatility declining. FX markets remained active ahead of central bank decisions, as the euro recovered and the Russian ruble weakened further.
Freight
Freight Recap:
19/03/2026
Mar 19, 2026
The dry bulk market showed a more fragmented picture this week. Larger sizes regained some strength on Atlantic-driven demand, while the geared segments continued to soften and Panamax moved into a more constructive but still uneven phase. A key theme now cutting across all segments is macro-driven volatility. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East is pushing energy costs higher, influencing bunker pricing, routing decisions, and overall risk appetite. At the same time, commodity flows are beginning to shift at the margins, adding another layer of complexity to positioning.
