Weekly Freight Recap: 08/01/26

Overview

The dry bulk market has eased into the new year with a clear split between sizes. Capes have rolled over, which is dragging sentiment down at the headline level, but the story inside the geared and Panamax space is more nuanced.

Panamax feels closer to a gentle early-year rebuild. The worst of the late-2025 owner sell-off in the Pacific has washed through, and enquiry is quietly improving in both basins. By contrast, Supramax and Handysize have started the year on the back foot. Tonnage lists are long, especially in the Atlantic, and enquiry has not yet come back strongly enough to change the balance of power away from charterers.

Across all segments, the common thread is that the holidays are over on paper, but the physical market is still behaving as if it is clearing end-year positioning rather than gearing up for a new cycle. Positioning, basin selection and laycan timing matter more right now than any big directional view.

Handysize

Handysize fundamentals look broadly unchanged on paper, but the tone has softened. Benchmarks have stepped down over the first publishing days of the year, with the Atlantic taking most of the strain.

In the US Gulf and Caribbean, the lack of fresh cargo and a growing list of prompt ships is forcing owners to lower ideas to keep vessels moving. The Continent and Mediterranean show a similar pattern, with little visible grain enquiry, more owners considering ballast options, and greater willingness to trade off rate for certainty.

The South Atlantic is the relative outperformer. East Coast South America still delivers workable levels on grains into the Continent and North Africa, and positional fixtures there are noticeably firmer than in the northern Atlantic. That said, the tone is hesitant rather than bullish, and further tightening depends on a clearer cargo pulse.

In Asia, sentiment remains soft. There is some demand for North Pacific grains and coastal coal, but not enough to tighten lists meaningfully. Modern ships with suitable timing find employment at reasonable returns, while older or awkwardly positioned units continue to chase the market.

Overall, Handysize is drifting rather than collapsing. The immediate risk is further erosion in weaker Atlantic pockets if fresh grain enquiry does not materialise, while South Atlantic grains remain the primary support.

Supramax / Ultramax

Supramax has carried its late-2025 weakness directly into the new year. The sector remains under pressure in both basins, with indices easing and negotiations firmly charterer-driven.

In the Atlantic, limited new enquiry and a large pool of prompt tonnage dominate the picture. US Gulf activity has thinned further, pushing owners into a defensive posture focused on securing employment rather than upside. West Africa and ECSA continue to produce occasional firmer fronthaul fixtures, but these are positional rather than indicative of basin-wide tightening.

The Pacific remains cautious. Indonesian coal runs are attracting more Panamax interest, reducing demand for Supramax tonnage. North Pacific rounds and Indian Ocean-linked routes continue to trade, but at levels consistent with a soft first quarter rather than a market floor already in place.

On the paper side, Supramax FFAs have seen active trading, with strength in prompt contracts and selling pressure further along the curve. This pattern aligns with owners hedging expected Q1 weakness rather than positioning for a rapid rebound.

Overall, Supramax remains in a correction phase. Freight is not in free fall, but demand has yet to reassert control.

Panamax / Kamsarmax

Panamax has quietly improved in tone after a subdued post-holiday start. Absolute levels remain modest, but momentum has shifted from negative to sideways-to-firmer.

In the Atlantic, transatlantic activity remains uneven, while fronthaul is gradually improving. ECSA is the key driver, with charterers paying slightly higher ideas for end-January and early-February loaders as grain enquiry builds and modern tonnage repositions. The US Gulf remains less dynamic, with constructive discussions on longer-haul routes but limited day-to-day fixing.

In the Pacific, last year’s aggressive owner selling has largely cleared. Tonnage lists have shortened, and a mix of North Pacific grains, Indonesian coal and regional industrial cargoes is restoring confidence. Modern Kamsarmaxes are achieving workable ranges on NoPac rounds and Indo-linked business, with charterers paying premiums for quality and positioning.

Overall, Panamax appears closer to forming a floor than facing renewed downside. While a strong upward move still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, the risk of a sharp correction has diminished.

Regional Pulse:

Atlantic Basin

North America / US Gulf The US Gulf remains one of the softer areas across geared sizes. Fronthaul enquiry is intermittent, and transatlantic demand has yet to gain momentum. Charterers remain patient, while owners prioritise coverage over resistance. Panamax sentiment is marginally more constructive than in Supras and Handies, though fixture flow remains limited.

Continent–Mediterranean / Black Sea The Continent–Mediterranean region shows mixed signals. There is some early coverage interest, particularly on grain flows into North Africa and intra-Med trades, but this sits within a generally soft market where tonnage availability dictates pricing. Black Sea grains remain part of the background flow without materially altering regional balance.

South Atlantic / ECSA and West Africa The South Atlantic remains the most functional Atlantic basin. Grain exports from ECSA continue to underpin Handysize and Panamax demand, while Supra fronthaul from West Africa and the wider South Atlantic still delivers respectable returns. However, increasing nearby coverage and incoming ballasters suggest a cautious rather than tightening backdrop.

Pacific Basin

The Pacific reflects a typical early-January environment that has already absorbed its excess tonnage. Panamax sentiment is supported by North Pacific grains and coal flows into India and Southeast Asia. In contrast, Supramax and Handysize remain under pressure from long lists, with charterers able to wait and owners often conceding first on backhaul and regional trades.

Indian Ocean / Middle East

The Indian Ocean is active but lacks bullish tension. Trade through the Gulf, India and East Africa continues to provide employment for Supramax and Panamax vessels, and reported fixtures underline steady utilisation. However, the basin is not tight enough to lift adjacent regions and currently acts as a stabilising influence rather than a driver.

Cost, Policy, and Fleet Signals

Bunkers

There are no notable changes in bunker dynamics this week. Fuel costs remain a factor in voyage economics but are not a primary driver of freight direction in a market still shaped by demand and tonnage balance.

Policy Watch

No new policy shocks are evident. Ongoing themes such as Chinese steel export policy and Indonesian coal taxation remain potential modifiers but do not yet provide concrete explanations for current freight movements in grain-relevant segments.

Asset and Fleet Tone

Secondhand market signals indicate continued interest in geared tonnage, though there is no evidence of a significant re-rating in asset values. Flexibility and optionality remain valued, particularly in the 50–80k dwt range, while buyers remain cautious on pricing in a near-term freight recovery.

Outlook

Into the second half of January, conditions are likely to remain thin and positioning-driven, with distinct paths by segment.

Handysize and Supramax are expected to stay charterer-led unless regional lists visibly tighten. Early improvement would most likely appear through shorter tonnage lists in the US Gulf and Continent–Mediterranean, or firmer grain activity in the South Atlantic, rather than a surge in enquiry.

Panamax and Kamsarmax show clearer signs of stabilisation, with scope for gradual improvement if ECSA grain volumes build and Pacific oversupply continues to ease. A sustained upswing still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, but downside risk appears lower than in recent weeks.

For agricultural freight buyers, this supports a pragmatic approach: utilise current weakness in Supramax and Handysize to secure coverage where programmes are firm, and begin layering Panamax cover out of ECSA and selectively from the US Gulf for February and March. For owners and operators, basin selection, triangulation and selective period cover remain more relevant than chasing rallies that have yet to materialise.