Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat started the week firmer while corn remained broadly stable after the previous Friday’s USDA-driven sell-off. Algeria returned to the market with a milling wheat tender for December shipment, while IKAR lowered Russia’s 2026 wheat crop estimate to 88.0 mmt and export potential to 42 mmt. Russian 12.5% wheat from Baltic ports increased to $268/t FOB for late November and early December shipment. In the US, attention remained on harvest progress after wet weather delayed fieldwork, while the weaker euro continued to support European wheat competitiveness. MATIF wheat extended its gains as renewed Black Sea attacks and stronger import demand supported European values. Two cargo vessels were struck by drones off Bulgaria, with one sinking and 11 crew reported missing, while another vessel carrying grain was also hit. Algeria reportedly purchased around 600k tonnes of milling wheat at $326–326.50/t C&F, later revised higher. France cut its 2026 grain maize production forecast to 7.3 mmt from 8.1 mmt, the lowest in ministry records dating back to 1980. US corn harvest reached 33% and soybean harvest 46%, while EU soft wheat exports were reported at 7.99 mmt, compared with internal lineups closer to 10.5 mmt. European wheat remained firmer while corn continued to face harvest pressure. Algeria’s wheat purchase was estimated at around 750k tonnes, considerably larger than initially reported. FranceAgriMer raised French non-EU soft wheat exports to 6.5 mmt and reduced ending stocks to 2.7 mmt, while corn stocks were cut to just 1.1 mmt, down 43% year on year. China’s October CASDE lowered 2026/27 corn feed demand by 9.1 mmt to 200.5 mmt, increasing the projected stock build. Jordan also returned to the feed barley market, purchasing 60k tonnes at $307/t C&F for late January shipment. Grain markets moved lower as larger global supply estimates added pressure. The IGC raised 2026/27 global corn production by 6 mmt to 1.307 bln tonnes and increased total grain ending stocks by 11 mmt to 619 mmt. CONAB maintained Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop at 148 mmt, 9 mmt above USDA’s estimate, while planted area was projected to increase 4.9% year on year. Argentine corn planting reached 34.8% of the planned 8.4 mha, while wheat harvest progress was slowed by rain and some central regions reported frost-related yield losses. Grains ended the week lower despite another rise in crude oil. US wheat fell to fresh multi-month lows as weak export demand, recovering Russian Baltic shipments and fund selling outweighed continuing Black Sea disruption. reached just 320k tonnes, down from 452k tonnes the previous week, while 2026/27 commitments were 33% below last year. Managed money reduced its corn net long by 86.5k contracts to 230.9k following the October WASDE. Rusagrotrans estimated Russian October wheat exports at 3.0 mmt, with around 65% moving through Baltic ports. France’s maize harvest reached 92% completion, while soft wheat planting advanced to 15%

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat started the week higher as Black Sea shipping risk and the Saudi tender result supported prices, while corn remained broadly unchanged. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 683k tonnes of wheat for November and December arrival at an average $339.24/t C&F, 148k tonnes above the original tender volume and around $70/t above its July purchase. Russia announced plans to begin state grain purchases by late October as export constraints continued to weigh on domestic prices. US corn inspections reached 1.37 mmt, while wheat inspections remained weak at 302k tonnes. Wet Midwest weather also slowed the US corn harvest to 23% completion, below the 27% five-year average, while corn conditions fell 3 pp to 54% good to excellent. Wheat recorded a fourth consecutive higher close as Black Sea shipping risks escalated, while corn rallied following a sharp deterioration in US crop conditions. Two merchant vessels were struck by drones in Bulgaria’s Black Sea economic zone, including one carrying grain, extending shipping concerns into Bulgarian and Romanian waters. A separate tanker attack off Russia’s coast added to regional freight and insurance risks. EU soft wheat exports reached 7.52 mmt by October 4, although internal line-ups indicated volumes closer to 9 mmt. Jordan made no purchase in its 120k-tonne wheat tender, while the US corn harvest remained at 23% and Iowa was only 7% complete compared with 20% normally. Grain markets moved lower as wheat gave back much of the previous session’s rally and corn eased as US harvesting accelerated. Argentina’s wheat conditions improved, with Good/Excellent ratings rising 8 pp, while the country’s 2025/26 corn harvest was confirmed at a record 64 mmt. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat production forecast to 87.5 mmt from 88.2 mmt amid dry southern soils and slow winter planting. Asian feed demand remained active, with Philippine buyers tendering for up to 377k tonnes of feed wheat and 110k tonnes of corn, while Thai buyers sought at least 60k tonnes of feed wheat. Ahead of the , traders expected US corn yield to decline to around 177.7 bu/acre. Grains remained mostly lower ahead of the , with harvest pressure weighing on corn and soybeans. Lithuania proposed an EU-wide ban on Russian grain transit through European ports, following Estonia’s existing restrictions and similar calls from Latvia. Ukraine also explored using German ports, which could potentially provide around 1 mmt per month of additional export capacity, although transport and infrastructure constraints remained unresolved. Ukrainian grain exports reached just 217k tonnes during the first seven days of October. US wheat export sales improved to 452k tonnes, the strongest in 15 weeks, although total commitments remained 32% below last year. NOAA also reported a strengthening El Niño, with an 83% probability of historically extreme conditions during October–December. Corn fell sharply after the October delivered a major bearish surprise. raised US corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre from 178.5 and lifted production to 16.034 bln bushels, around 300 mln bushels above the average trade estimate. US 2026/27 ending stocks increased to 1.849 bln bushels. Wheat changes were smaller, with US ending stocks raised to 740 mln bushels while Russian exports were cut by 3 mmt to 40 mmt. Algeria responded to lower prices by announcing a large wheat tender for December shipment. Managed money had already reduced its corn net long to around 317k contracts before the WASDE-driven sell-off.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Ag markets opened the week sharply lower after the US-China trade package failed to deliver the demand boost traders had expected. China agreed to lower tariffs on US corn and wheat, but soybeans were excluded and no new purchase commitments were announced. Russian 12.5% wheat for November eased to $267/t FOB Baltic ports, while Pakistan’s latest tender drew a low offer of $339.36/t C&F, almost $9.50/t below its previous purchase. US corn inspections reached 1.57 mmt, while wheat inspections remained weak at 311k tonnes. JRC MARS also cut its EU grain maize yield forecast to 6.50 t/ha, 8% below the five-year average. Wheat rebounded from multi-week lows as renewed Black Sea attacks and a weaker euro supported MATIF, while corn remained little changed ahead of USDA’s Quarterly Stocks report. The European Commission cut its 2026/27 EU corn crop estimate to 48.3 mmt from 50.1 mmt, while imports were held at 25.0 mmt. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.81 mmt by September 27, although internal line-ups were already around 8.5 mmt. Brussels also kept Ukraine’s tariff-free quotas unchanged at 1.3 mmt for wheat and 1.0 mmt for corn. Corn fell sharply after USDA reported September 1 stocks at 2.095 bln bushels, well above the 1.918 bln trade estimate and 1.551 bln a year earlier. USDA also revised the 2025 corn crop 57 mln bushels lower, leaving weaker implied feed and residual demand as the main driver of the larger carry-in. US wheat production was estimated at 1.534 bln bushels, slightly above expectations, although winter wheat increased while spring wheat was cut to 450 mln bushels. Funds were heavily long corn going into the report, increasing the scale of the liquidation. Pakistan also purchased 180k tonnes of wheat at $339.36/t C&F. Wheat recovered while corn stabilised after the USDA-driven sell-off, supported by renewed Black Sea risk and fresh import demand. Saudi Arabia returned with a 535k-tonne wheat tender for November and December shipment after cancelling the same volume in September because offers were considered too expensive. Estonia banned transit of Russian and Belarusian grain, limiting another potential alternative route around disrupted Black Sea ports. reached only 289k tonnes, while corn sales were 536k tonnes, both near the bottom of expectations. Argentina completed its 2025/26 corn harvest at a record 64 mmt. European wheat ended the week firmer as Black Sea risk and a weaker euro supported export values, while US corn lost almost 6% over the week following the larger USDA carry-in and continued fund liquidation. Black Sea execution risk increased again after a Liberian-flagged cargo vessel was struck in an Odesa-region port. France’s corn harvest advanced to 67% complete, compared with 45% a week earlier and a five-year average of 20%. FAO’s Food Price Index rose 1.5% month on month to 136.0 in September, the highest since November 2022, with cereal prices up 5.1%. Managed money had already reduced its corn net long to 377.9k contracts before the USDA stocks report.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grains started the week higher, with corn and soybeans leading as expectations around the Trump-Xi meeting brought Chinese demand back into focus. Wheat also gained after another weekend of Russia-Ukraine strikes, while Black Sea deep-water exports remained heavily disrupted. Russia continued redirecting grain through Baltic ports and planned to begin using Murmansk in October. Russian 12.5% wheat for November fell to $268/t FOB Vysotsk/Ust-Luga, while wheat, barley and corn export duties were formally reduced to zero through year-end. US corn inspections remained strong at 1.94 mmt, while wheat inspections fell to 335k tonnes. reached 13% and soybean harvest 12%, both ahead of their five-year averages. Grains gave back much of Monday’s rally as traders waited for clearer signals from US-China talks and Black Sea diplomacy. Argentina’s 2026/27 corn crop estimate was raised to a record 66.0 mmt, while soybean production was forecast at 53.6 mmt and wheat at 23.4 mmt. Jordan purchased 60k tonnes of wheat at $332/t C&F for first-half November, around $13/t above its August purchase. EU soft wheat exports reached 6.30 mmt by September 20, 2% above last year, although line-ups indicated actual execution closer to 8 mmt. Crude oil continued to ease as improved Saudi flows and possible US-Iran talks reduced some of the recent macro support for grains. Grain markets remained under pressure ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, with wheat briefly testing a one-month low. COCERAL cut its EU soft wheat production forecast by 1.03 mmt to 126.24 mmt and reduced corn by 4.12 mmt to 48.63 mmt, almost 8 mmt below last year. Tunisia purchased 125k tonnes of soft wheat at $311.72–314.23/t C&F and 75k tonnes of feed barley at $304.23–307.62/t. MATIF non-commercial participants reduced their wheat net long by 8k contracts to 212.9k, although positioning remained historically elevated. MATIF wheat led the decline after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver new agricultural purchase commitments. The US-China trade truce was extended to January 10, but China’s additional 10% soybean tariff remained in place. Turkey continued efforts to revive a Black Sea grain corridor, although Russia had not agreed to a deal and attacks continued. US wheat export sales reached only 268k tonnes, while corn sales fell to 838k tonnes. Bangladesh also booked more than 200k tonnes of Indian wheat following India’s removal of export restrictions in August, marking its first sizeable purchases from the country since 2022. Wheat finished the week lower but recovered from its intraday lows as Black Sea corridor expectations again competed with continued attacks on logistics and vessels. China announced tariff reductions on a broad range of US agricultural goods, including corn, wheat and sorghum, while soybeans remained subject to the additional 10% duty. Attention also shifted toward USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports, with traders expecting the US wheat crop near 1.524 bln bushels. Managed money remained heavily long corn at 414.4k contracts, while SRW wheat moved further into a net short. France’s maize harvest advanced sharply to 45% complete, compared with 27% a week earlier and 13% last year.