June 17, 2024

Weekly Agri- Commodities Recap: 10-14/06/24

Start of the week corn and soybeans closed positively, while wheat prices dropped significantly due to ongoing US harvests and Turkey’s ban on wheat imports. MATIF wheat prices fell by nearly 2%, and US wheat futures by over 3%. The US crop progress report provided some support, with corn planting at 95% and soybean planting at 87%. Analysts debated whether Turkey's demand for wheat is lost or deferred and if potential reductions in the Russian wheat crop could offset the ban's impact. IKAR reported a drop in Russian wheat prices, indicating a potential peak in cash markets. Egypt's GASC announced a tender for milling wheat, suggesting that buyers are willing to buy the dips.

Tuesday, wheat prices rebounded after prolonged declines, driven by short-covering and competitive EU offers to GASC. France's farm ministry reported unchanged sowing areas for soft wheat but expected lower yields due to adverse conditions. COCERAL updated its EU crop forecasts, reducing wheat and barley estimates while increasing corn projections. Russia declared a state of emergency in its Rostov region due to drought and frost impacts on winter grains. Egypt's GASC purchased 400,000 tons of milling wheat, and Jordan bought 60,000 tons for July shipment. The USDA reported a private sale of 104,000 tons of soybeans to China, highlighting ongoing export activities. The EU's soft wheat exports reached 28.76 mmt, with corn imports totaling 17.51 mmt.

On Wednesday the USDA report brought minimal surprises, keeping market prices stable. It indicated a reduction in global wheat stocks for major exporters to the lowest level in 17 years, with ending stocks reduced by 1.7 mmt. China’s wheat import forecast for 2023/2024 was raised by 1.5 mmt to 13 mmt, while Turkey’s import forecast for 2024/2025 was lowered by 1 mmt. Non-commercial participants reduced their net long positions in MATIF milling wheat and rapeseeds. US inflation data showed a slight cooling, with the CPI rising by 3.3% year-over-year, down from 3.4% in April. This fueled hopes for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the Fed's cautious economic projections indicated only one interest rate cut this year, leading to a mixed response in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Thursday saw mixed price movements. Chicago wheat, corn, and soybeans closed higher, while Kansas wheat and MATIF wheat declined. Brazil's CONAB raised its corn production estimate by 2.5 mmt to 114.1 mmt, although this was still 17.8 mmt lower year-over-year. The soybean production estimate was trimmed slightly. Argentina's wheat plantings were expected to increase, with the Rosario Grain Exchange projecting favorable weather conditions could lead to a harvest exceeding 21 mmt. US weekly export sales for the week ending June 6 were in line with expectations for corn and soybeans but showed sluggish wheat sales. The USDA reported a private sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. China's agriculture ministry reported that recent high temperatures had negatively impacted summer planting activities. The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicated a high likelihood of La Niña development, which could persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter, potentially affecting global weather patterns and crop yields.

The week concluded with broad declines in grain prices, led by wheat due to increasing harvest pressure. This negative momentum continued into the early Monday session. Funds maintained a steady net short position in corn but increased shorts in soybeans and Chicago wheat. The EUR/USD remained under pressure following President Macron’s call for a snap election, raising concerns about fiscal instability in France. As of June 10, 62% of French soft wheat was rated good/excellent, unchanged from the previous week but significantly lower than the previous year’s 85%. The Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry increased its grain harvest forecast to 56 mmt, including 21 mmt of wheat and 28.5 mmt of corn. These forecasts were more optimistic than those of the Ukrainian Grain Association and higher than USDA projections.

Other weekly recaps

July 6, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 29-03/07/2026: Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

June 29, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 22-26/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with a split performance. MATIF wheat found support from intensifying heat across western Europe, while US wheat remained under pressure from the advancing harvest. Corn and soybeans closed lower as favorable US crop conditions continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing concerns over Europe. European weather dominated the discussion, but also drew attention. EU soft wheat exports continued to outperform last year, with line-up estimates already exceeding 27 mmt, while Egypt began exploring higher wheat imports from Poland to diversify grain supplies. Meanwhile, US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly to 40% complete. US wheat and corn extended their decline as harvest pressure continued to build and South American supplies weighed on corn markets. In contrast, Europe remained focused on persistent heat and limited rainfall, with forecasts showing crop stress gradually shifting from France toward northern producing regions. Supply revisions remained mixed. Sovecon lowered Russia's wheat crop forecast to 88.9 mmt after excessive rainfall reduced spring wheat plantings, while EU wheat exports continued to move ahead of last year's pace. Jordan once again made no purchases in its wheat tender. MATIF wheat rallied again as hot and dry weather across western Europe remained the dominant market driver. US wheat failed to hold early gains, while corn and soybeans weakened despite sharply lower oil prices. Egypt opened discussions to increase wheat imports from Poland as part of efforts to diversify strategic food supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices briefly dropped back into the $60s after Iran assured the US that commercial vessels would not face additional costs when passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the interim peace agreement. Markets reversed direction, with MATIF wheat easing while US grains recovered alongside firmer oil prices. Traders also digested a fresh round of global production estimates. The European Commission lowered its production forecasts for soft wheat, corn and barley after reducing harvested area estimates, while the IGC raised its outlook for global corn and wheat production. US drought conditions changed little, suggesting European weather remains the larger concern for grain markets. Grains finished the week lower, led by wheat, as traders shifted their attention toward the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Weather remains the dominant driver, particularly for European crops facing prolonged heat and for US corn entering its critical pollination period. French wheat ratings slipped another two percentage points but remained above last year and the five-year average, while maize conditions deteriorated more sharply. US-Iran tensions eased after both sides agreed to halt attacks ahead of renewed peace talks in Doha, although shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain closely monitored. The Russian ruble weakened sharply, switching Russia's wheat export tax back on after several weeks at zero.

June 22, 2026Commodities

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 15-19/06/2026: Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

June 15, 2026Commodities

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/06/26 : Grain markets started the week mixed, with US wheat futures recovering from oversold levels while European wheat continued to drift lower. Soybeans extended their losing streak, and corn stabilized only after reaching fresh lows. Despite ongoing volatility in oil markets, agricultural markets appeared increasingly focused on crop conditions and supply fundamentals rather than energy prices. The fundamental picture remained mixed. Russian wheat prices weakened ahead of the new season, while US corn exports continued to outperform expectations. Markets traded in a narrow range as liquidation pressure appeared to ease following several weeks of heavy selling. Attention shifted toward the upcoming USDA report, although expectations pointed to only limited revisions. Export demand remained active. Jordan secured wheat for August shipment at slightly lower prices than the previous tender, while Bangladesh entered the market with a wheat tender of its own. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, with customs data showing shipments above 22 million tons and export programs suggesting actual exports remain significantly higher. Meanwhile, weather conditions across much of the US Corn Belt and northern Europe remained broadly favorable. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and pressured broader financial markets. Grains initially followed energy higher but failed to hold gains as traders remained focused on the upcoming USDA report and generally comfortable supply prospects. Positioning data showed a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative traders flipping from a net long to a net short position in MATIF wheat. At the same time, expectations for the USDA report pointed toward only minor changes to US balance sheets, while larger South American crops continued to weigh on global corn and soybean outlooks. Inflation also remained a concern after US consumer prices reached their highest level in three years. The USDA report broadly matched market expectations, leaving corn under the most pressure after global ending stocks came in above forecasts. Kansas wheat was the relative outperformer following another reduction in US HRW production, while falling oil prices added further pressure across the grain complex. Outside the USDA report, conditions remained generally favorable. Drought coverage declined across US corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas, while Argentina continued reporting solid planting and harvest progress. The US CPC also confirmed that El Niño conditions are present, a development that will be closely monitored in the months ahead, particularly for Australia and other weather-sensitive exporters. Grains finished the week on a weak note, with corn the only major contract able to post modest gains. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement of an interim US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodity markets throughout the conflict. French wheat conditions improved slightly, adding further pressure to wheat prices and reinforcing confidence in the crop outlook. There was also unconfirmed discussion that China may have purchased French wheat, which, if confirmed, would mark the first such purchase since the 2023/24 season. Meanwhile, speculative selling accelerated across CBOT markets, with funds flipping from a large net long to a net short position in corn and expanding already substantial short positions in Chicago wheat.

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