Industry insights

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook: The week opened with mixed grain markets. Corn followed soybeans higher, while CBOT wheat declined and MATIF wheat closed modestly firmer. US crop data showed soybean conditions improving by 1 pp to 66% good to excellent, while corn also gained 1 pp to 67%. Spring wheat conditions fell more sharply than expected, dropping 5 pp to 53%, and the winter wheat harvest reached 74% completion. USDA also reported private soybean sales to China and unknown destinations, together with corn sales to Colombia. Weekly export inspections were weak for wheat and especially soybeans. US spring wheat led Tuesday’s gains as dry weather and deteriorating crop conditions supported prices. Other US wheat contracts also advanced, while corn recovered from early losses despite better-than-expected condition ratings. MATIF wheat remained below the highs reached during its recent rally. Brazil’s second corn harvest reached 49.8% completion, while wheat planting advanced to 97.4%. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat forecast from 88.9 mmt to 88.3 mmt. Initial results from the North Dakota crop tour placed southern spring wheat yields at 46.0 bushels per acre, below last year but slightly above the five-year average. Grain markets moved higher again, with wheat supported by continued attacks around the Black Sea and new restrictions at Novorossiysk. Russia introduced a temporary night curfew on vessel traffic at the port, limiting movements between midnight and 5 a.m. MATIF wheat joined the rally, while corn and soybeans also closed higher alongside firmer crude oil. EU soft wheat reached 0.47 mmt as of July 19, up 252k tonnes from the previous report but below 0.86 mmt a year earlier. Non-commercial participants increased their net long in MATIF milling wheat to 111.9k contracts, the highest level in more than two years, while their rapeseed net long rose to 72.4k contracts. Wheat fell sharply across US and European markets, giving back part of the earlier gains, while corn finished unchanged and soybeans moved higher. Black Sea shipping risks remained in focus, although Ukraine’s agriculture minister denied reports that mechanisms were being discussed to secure exports from the Big Odesa ports. Allseeds halted operations in the Odesa region because of the attacks. France’s soft wheat harvest reached 99% completion, while maize conditions declined to 38% good to excellent. Funds sold 11.5k wheat contracts on Friday but remained net buyers of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over the full week. Expana reduced its EU soybean and sunflower seed production forecasts, while IKAR projected Russia’s 2026 grain crop at 139 mmt, including 90 mmt of wheat.

Freight (Lite) : The dry bulk market weakened this week, although performance varied by vessel size and region. Handysize held broadly steady as stronger Pacific conditions offset a softer Atlantic, while Supramax declined in the US Gulf and Continent. Panamax recorded the sharpest correction, led by weaker Pacific demand and increasing vessel availability.  Prompt grain demand remains limited in several loading regions, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. However, sharply higher bunker costs are restricting the decline in voyage freight and creating a growing difference between weaker timecharter earnings and comparatively resilient USD/tonne rates.  The Handysize market was broadly stable at headline level, with the Timecharter Average edging up to approximately USD 16,300/day. The underlying market remained divided, as Pacific earnings improved while Atlantic rates continued to soften.  The US Gulf showed the clearest weakness, with a longer vessel list and limited prompt grain demand encouraging owners to reduce expectations. East Coast South America also remained soft, although delays affecting some vessels kept effective prompt supply more balanced than the published list suggested.  The Continent and Baltic remained quiet ahead of the European new-crop programme. In the Black Sea, activity increasingly shifted towards Romanian and Bulgarian ports as operational risks restricted Russian and Ukrainian loading.  Supramax and Ultramax conditions softened, with the Supramax Timecharter Average falling to approximately USD 21,500/day.  The US Gulf and Continent were the weakest Atlantic regions as vessel availability increased faster than fresh enquiry. Owners discounted to secure cover, particularly for prompt transatlantic employment.  East Coast South America performed better, supported by improving fronthaul demand, although transatlantic cargoes remained under pressure from available tonnage. Safe-port Mediterranean and Black Sea business also held comparatively firm because fewer owners were prepared to accept higher-risk loading areas.  Panamax was the weakest-performing segment, with the Timecharter Average falling to approximately USD 18,600/day. The Pacific led the decline as weak demand and a growing vessel list placed substantial pressure on rates.  Atlantic conditions also softened. Brazilian grain shipments remained active, but cargo volumes were insufficient to absorb available tonnage. The US Gulf and Continent faced a similar imbalance as prompt vessel supply increased while grain and coal enquiry remained limited.  Panamax earnings have moved below the main Supramax benchmarks, creating opportunities for buyers able to combine cargoes or use larger vessels. Voyage freight has been slower to adjust because higher bunker costs are offsetting part of the physical market decline.  Handysize weakened as additional tonnage accumulated in the US Gulf and East Coast South America.  Supramax remained under pressure in the US Gulf and Continent, while South American fronthaul demand provided some support.  Panamax softened across the main grain-loading regions as available vessels exceeded prompt cargo demand.  Handysize outperformed the Atlantic and supported the overall segment average.  Panamax experienced the strongest correction as vessel supply remained above current demand.  US Gulf buyers retain negotiating leverage due to the longer prompt vessel list.  East Coast South America remains soft, although vessel delays could reduce genuine early-August availability.  Continent and Baltic demand remains limited ahead of the European new-crop programme.  Black Sea requirements should focus on safer Romanian and Bulgarian loading ports.  Rising fuel costs are limiting the decline in voyage freight even as physical timecharter markets weaken.  Reduced Russian and Ukrainian grain activity is shifting cargo demand towards safer origins and supporting premiums for owners willing to trade in the region.  Prompt US grain availability remains limited, while expectations of stronger fourth-quarter exports indicate a softer nearby market but firmer forward demand.  Forward freight values have not fallen as quickly as the physical market, particularly in Panamax, making near-dated physical cover more attractive than paper hedging.  Handysize buyers should remain patient in the US Gulf and flexible East Coast South America positions.  Supramax buyers should continue testing transatlantic markets while covering South American fronthaul requirements earlier.  Panamax buyers should take advantage of weaker physical capacity but avoid rushing flexible prompt cargoes.  Voyage buyers should separate bunker adjustments from underlying freight wherever possible.  Russian and Ukrainian grain execution remains unreliable, making alternative origins and safer Black Sea ports the more practical options. 

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat prices gave back Friday’s gains as the market assessed how long restrictions in the Sea of Azov could continue. The disruption remained a source of risk, although Russia had other ports available to redirect cargoes. Corn and soybeans closed higher alongside a surge in oil prices after the US announced plans to reinstate its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a 20% charge on other cargoes using the waterway. US crop conditions improved, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans 65%, both 1 pp higher over the week. Spring wheat ratings also increased to 58%, while the winter wheat harvest reached 67% completion. Wheat recovered from early losses as continued attacks on vessels and infrastructure around Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor supported prices. Russia said it would reroute grain exports through other Black Sea and Baltic ports to meet its commitments, although this would increase transport costs. US wheat futures outperformed MATIF as the dollar weakened following lower-than-expected inflation data. CONAB raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 141.73 mmt but reduced its wheat estimate to 6.03 mmt. EU Commission data placed soft wheat exports at 0.21 mmt as of July 12, although vessel lineups indicated volumes closer to 0.9 mmt. Wheat futures rose strongly as shipowners increasingly avoided Ukrainian Black Sea ports and some existing bookings were reviewed or cancelled. Traders also paused new purchases while reassessing insurance, freight and execution risks. Attention remained focused on Russian export flows from Novorossiysk, particularly during the period when the country’s wheat programme normally accelerates. France’s farm ministry estimated the soft wheat crop at 32 mmt, only 4% below last year despite the earlier heat wave. Non-commercial participants also moved from a net short of 9.7k MATIF wheat contracts to a net long of 23.6k contracts. Wheat reversed lower after reaching multi-month highs as traders reduced part of the Black Sea risk premium. Germany’s DRV lowered its 2026 wheat production estimate to 21.89 mmt from 22.63 mmt in June because of heat and limited rainfall. FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports at 14.4 mmt and ending stocks at 3.65 mmt, but did not publish a corn SnD . US weekly export sales reached 235k tonnes of wheat, 626k tonnes of corn and 1.96 mmt of soybeans, with wheat and corn sales below market expectations. Drought affected 19% of US corn, 18% of soybeans and 24% of spring wheat acreage. Grain markets ended the week higher, led by wheat, as attacks and shipping restrictions in the Black Sea continued. Renewed US-Iran tensions also pushed Brent crude above $90. The French soft wheat harvest advanced by 33 pp to 92% complete, while French corn condition ratings fell another 6 pp to 41%. Weather forecasts indicated continued stress for French corn, cooler conditions across much of Europe and unwanted rain in northern Poland and the Baltics. Managed money increased its net long in Chicago corn by 30.7k contracts to 43.4k and reduced its net short in Chicago wheat by 25.5k contracts to 36.8k.

Freight (Lite): Dry bulk conditions became increasingly divided by vessel size and region this week. Handysize weakened across most Atlantic loading areas, Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest geared segment despite early signs of easing in the US Gulf, and Panamax stayed broadly steady with East Coast South America continuing to outperform the wider Atlantic. Higher bunker prices and maritime-security risks increased voyage costs, but local cargo volumes and vessel availability remained the main drivers of freight direction. The Handysize market softened, with the Timecharter Average easing to around USD 16,300/day. East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent all faced limited cargo demand and increasing vessel availability, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. North Europe also remained under pressure as available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea enquiry. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were firmer because prompt vessels remained scarce. However, continued attacks on vessels and grain infrastructure have increased execution, insurance and cancellation risks. Pacific conditions held up better than the Atlantic but also eased slightly. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest grain-relevant segment, with the Ultramax Timecharter Average reaching around USD 21,900/day. East Coast South America stayed firm as a tight end-July vessel list supported grain fronthauls. The US Gulf also remained at elevated levels, although a growing tonnage list and slower enquiry produced the first signs that the market may be approaching a short-term peak. Black Sea levels remained supported by limited prompt supply, while the Continent stayed firm without showing a meaningful tightening in vessel availability. The Pacific improved, particularly around North and South China, giving the segment support across both major basins. Panamax remained broadly steady, with the Timecharter Average holding near USD 20,300/day. East Coast South America continued to command the strongest Atlantic grain premium, supported by Brazilian soybean and corn exports. The Pacific also firmed on North Pacific and Australian round voyages. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, momentum weakened. Continent and North Atlantic route assessments declined, while US Gulf grain demand provided some support without matching the strength of East Coast South America. Black Sea Panamax conditions remained difficult to assess because limited fresh pricing and vessel-supply information were available. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Black Sea Prompt geared tonnage remained limited, but attacks on vessels and export infrastructure substantially increased the risk of delay, cancellation and force majeure. Handysize-Specific Notes Fuel and Security Higher bunker prices, war-risk premiums and restricted Gulf transit conditions have raised voyage costs and reduced the effective availability of vessels on longer routes. Grain Flows Brazilian soybean and corn exports continue to support East Coast South America, while current US Gulf grain activity remains comparatively light. Black Sea Disruption Damage to vessels and export terminals has reduced the reliability of Black Sea grain movements despite continued underlying wheat demand. Forward Market Forward pricing suggests firm Supramax sentiment, broadly stable Panamax earnings and limited additional near-term downside in Handysize before a weaker seasonal period. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent, while securing exact prompt Black Sea requirements early. Supramax buyers should prioritise prompt East Coast South America and executable Black Sea cargoes, while covering only essential US Gulf requirements as the vessel list begins to grow. Panamax buyers should secure East Coast South America grain exposure where timing is fixed, but remain selective in the wider Atlantic and Pacific as regional conditions continue to diverge. Higher fuel and security costs should limit the depth of any freight correction, although weak cargo demand can still push individual markets lower.  

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

Freight (Lite) : The dry bulk market strengthened in Panamax and Ultramax, while Handysize rates eased.  The strongest conditions were recorded for Ultramax vessels in the US Gulf and Panamax vessels in the North Atlantic. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent, although prompt Black Sea grain business and selected US Gulf long-haul routes remained supported.  US Gulf grain activity improved slightly, led by corn and soybeans. Brazilian grain exports declined, while Black Sea exports eased but remained above the comparable period last year. EU and UK grain exports excluding the Black Sea also declined.  Higher bunker costs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz increased insurance, routing and execution risks. Handysize and Ultramax trades face the most direct exposure, while Panamax grain freight is affected mainly through bunker costs and vessel positioning.  The Handysize market weakened across the Atlantic and Pacific, with the Global Handysize Baltic Index falling to USD 16,506 per day.  East Coast South America softened as weaker grain exports and limited cargo demand left charterers with greater negotiating leverage.  The US Gulf remained selective. Standard transatlantic business eased, while longer-haul grain routes continued to attract firmer support.  The Black Sea was the clearest area of improvement. Prompt grain demand tightened the available vessel list and supported stronger levels, although later dates remained less certain.  The Continent and Baltic stayed weak as limited cargo formation and sufficient prompt tonnage continued to pressure the market.  Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain stems and specific US Gulf long-haul requirements. East Coast South America and the Continent continue to offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax recorded the strongest grain-related physical earnings, with Ultramax earnings rising to USD 21,490 per day.  The US Gulf remained the strongest basin. Grain demand supported firm Atlantic and Far East employment, although the vessel list appeared healthier towards the end of July.  East Coast South America remained supported for prompt modern tonnage. However, weaker Brazilian exports suggest that current strength is being driven more by vessel positioning than by rising cargo volumes.  The Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean also firmed as prompt vessel availability tightened. Grain and industrial cargoes supported the market, although activity remained uneven.  The Continent and Baltic were more balanced. Weak regional grain exports limited demand, but alternative cargoes prevented a clear correction.  Overall, Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt US Gulf and Black Sea requirements. Later East Coast South America and Continent positions can be approached more patiently.  Panamax and Kamsarmax remained firm, although the market showed signs of consolidation rather than further acceleration. The Baltic Panamax Timecharter Average reached USD 20,276 per day.  The North Atlantic remained supported after active fixing reduced both cargo and vessel lists. Owners continued to seek higher levels, but the more balanced position list reduced the need for buyers to chase the market.  East Coast South America was mixed. Prompt and early-August business remained supported, while owners and charterers continued to disagree over the effect of higher bunker costs.  The US Gulf remained firm due to grain demand and Atlantic replacement economics. However, improving vessel availability limited the case for extending prompt premiums too far forward.  The Black Sea lacked a clear standalone Panamax signal, despite grain exports remaining above the comparable period last year.  The Pacific held broadly steady. Prompt North Pacific grain and Australian employment remained supported, while forward positions were more balanced.  Overall, Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America positions should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  Ultramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Panamax continued to receive support from North Atlantic and US grain demand.  Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent. Prompt Black Sea geared business improved as the available vessel list tightened.  Lower Brazilian grain exports limited the case for extending current Atlantic premiums into later dates.  Panamax remained firm but showed limited evidence of a fresh upward move. Prompt North Pacific grain requirements continued to support rates, while forward positions were more balanced.  Handysize and Ultramax conditions remained constrained by healthier vessel availability and uneven cargo demand.  Temporary weather disruption around eastern China may affect vessel schedules, but the freight impact should remain limited unless port closures persist.  Continent and Baltic conditions remained weak because available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea cargo demand.  East Coast South America softened as Brazilian grain exports declined.  Prompt Black Sea grain business strengthened following a reduction in available vessels.  US Gulf support remained concentrated in specific long-haul grain routes rather than the wider Handysize market.  Renewed US strikes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and increased war-risk, insurance and bunker exposure.  Some vessels continued to transit, but reversed sailings, ballast queues and GPS interference were reported around key Gulf loading areas.  Owners may require shorter offer validity, additional contractual protection and higher risk premiums. Buyers should confirm routing assumptions, war-risk allocation, bunker exposure and cancellation provisions before comparing voyage offers.  Higher bunker costs increased voyage expenses, particularly on longer routes from the US Gulf, East Coast South America and the Black Sea.  US Gulf grain activity remained supportive, while lower Brazilian, Black Sea and European export volumes created a more uneven Atlantic demand picture.  Forward soybean buying supported prompt and early-forward US Gulf freight but did not justify extending current premiums into later dates.  Tighter prompt Ultramax availability supported the Black Sea, while healthier US Gulf and North Atlantic lists limited the potential for another broad rate increase.  Weak grain exports and subdued summer cargo formation continued to pressure smaller vessel employment around the Continent and Baltic.  Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain and specific US Gulf long-haul exposure. East Coast South America and the Continent still offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt cover in the US Gulf and Black Sea. Later East Coast South America and Continent requirements should be approached more patiently.  Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  The market remains Atlantic-led, with the strongest conditions concentrated around prompt positions and restricted vessel availability. The key distinction is between immediate requirements in tight basins and later exposure where cargo flow and tonnage are more balanced. 

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

Freight (Lite) 03/07/2026: The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance this week. Panamax recorded the clearest short-term improvement among the grain-focused segments, supported by tighter prompt supply in the North Continent and better Pacific cargo activity. Supramax remained broadly stable and continued to generate the highest average earnings among the grain-relevant vessel classes. Handysize conditions varied more significantly, with a firm US Gulf contrasting with softer markets in East Coast South America, North Europe and parts of the Pacific. Capesize also recovered, although the move was largely driven by renewed iron ore activity rather than a wider improvement across dry bulk freight. Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, particularly on longer routes. However, they have not removed the Atlantic freight premium because vessel positioning and prompt availability remain the main pricing drivers. Handysize became increasingly divided by region this week. The US Gulf remained the strongest area, supported by healthy grain activity and a prompt vessel list that was tighter than published tonnage counts suggested. Off-market fixing continued to remove ships without always producing visible fixtures, helping owners maintain established levels. East Coast South America softened as additional vessels entered the basin and expected second-half July cargo demand failed to develop fully. Grain demand remains present, but charterers have regained some negotiating leverage. North Europe also weakened as prompt tonnage increased faster than fresh grain and scrap enquiry. The region remains easier to cover than the stronger Atlantic grain basins. The Black Sea stayed broadly stable. Grain exports improved, but cargo volumes were not sufficient to absorb the available vessel list or generate a meaningful freight increase. Pacific conditions also softened, particularly in Southeast and North Asia, where vessel supply began to exceed fresh cargo demand. Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt US Gulf requirements but remain patient in East Coast South America, North Europe and most Pacific markets. Supramax and Ultramax remained firm in the Atlantic but continued to lose momentum in Asia. The US Gulf retained the clearest freight premium. Grain cargoes and limited fresh vessel arrivals supported both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul employment, leaving prompt physical earnings well above generic forward values. East Coast South America also remained supported, particularly for trans-Atlantic business. The South Atlantic list was still relatively short, although fronthaul demand was less convincing than Atlantic-facing employment. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were broadly balanced. Grain, clinker and West Africa cargoes provided support, but softer India and Far East business showed that buyers did not need to accept every owner indication. North Europe moved gradually in charterers’ favour as conventional Baltic employment became more limited and vessel availability increased. Asian earnings remained substantially below Atlantic levels. Softer Indonesian and South China employment continued to offset the strength seen in the US Gulf and South Atlantic. Overall, prompt US Gulf Supramax exposure should still be covered early. East Coast South America remains supported, while the Continent and Asia offer buyers greater flexibility. Panamax showed modest improvement this week, supported by firmer conditions in the North Atlantic and a stabilising Pacific market. Prompt tonnage tightened in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, while trans-Atlantic and mineral demand improved. This allowed owners to achieve firmer levels for immediate employment. The Pacific also began to recover from its recent lows as Australian and North Pacific cargo activity increased. Owners increasingly preferred shorter employment or strategic repositioning, reducing prompt vessel availability. East Coast South America remained more mixed. Brazilian grain exports and the advancing corn harvest continued to support cargo availability, but voyage freight to China did not strengthen alongside the North Atlantic market. The US Gulf stayed firm for prompt dates, supported by better grain inspections and higher Atlantic replacement costs. However, vessel supply is expected to become more comfortable for later July and August positions. The Black Sea remained a follower rather than a market leader. Export volumes improved, but regional supply was balanced and no independent Panamax squeeze developed. Overall, buyers should secure prompt North Atlantic Panamax requirements. East Coast South America and later summer positions can be approached more selectively as additional tonnage is expected. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region for Handysize and Supramax. Grain activity and limited fresh tonnage continue to support prompt freight. East Coast South America Conditions differ by vessel size. Handysize softened, Supramax remained supported and Panamax continued to benefit from Brazilian grain demand. North Atlantic Prompt Panamax availability tightened, supporting stronger trans-Atlantic and fronthaul business. Pacific Handysize and Supramax remained softer, while Panamax began to stabilise as cargo activity improved. Mediterranean and Black Sea The region remained broadly balanced. Grain and industrial cargoes provided support, but available vessel supply prevented a wider squeeze. Fuel and bunkers Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, but vessel positioning remains more important for prompt Atlantic freight. Security and routing Traffic through Hormuz is recovering, although insurance, mine clearance and political uncertainty mean Gulf operations have not fully normalised. Agricultural flows Stronger US inspections, Brazilian corn exports and improving Black Sea volumes provide a constructive demand base heading into July. China demand Limited purchases of new-crop US soybeans could support future US Gulf freight, although the outlook remains too uncertain to justify a large forward premium. Atlantic versus Pacific Prompt Atlantic supply remains tighter than Pacific supply across most geared vessel segments, preserving the premium for Atlantic physical freight. Handysize buyers should cover prompt US Gulf requirements but retain flexibility in East Coast South America, North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax buyers should prioritise the US Gulf. East Coast South America remains supported, while North Europe and Asia should remain more negotiable. Panamax buyers should move earlier on prompt North Atlantic requirements. Later July, August and East Coast South America positions can be handled more selectively. The freight market remains dependent on local vessel balances rather than one broad dry bulk trend. Prompt Atlantic positions continue to command premiums, but sustained strength beyond July is less certain as additional ballasters enter the market.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week with a split performance. MATIF wheat found support from intensifying heat across western Europe, while US wheat remained under pressure from the advancing harvest. Corn and soybeans closed lower as favorable US crop conditions continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing concerns over Europe. European weather dominated the discussion, but also drew attention. EU soft wheat exports continued to outperform last year, with line-up estimates already exceeding 27 mmt, while Egypt began exploring higher wheat imports from Poland to diversify grain supplies. Meanwhile, US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly to 40% complete. US wheat and corn extended their decline as harvest pressure continued to build and South American supplies weighed on corn markets. In contrast, Europe remained focused on persistent heat and limited rainfall, with forecasts showing crop stress gradually shifting from France toward northern producing regions. Supply revisions remained mixed. Sovecon lowered Russia's wheat crop forecast to 88.9 mmt after excessive rainfall reduced spring wheat plantings, while EU wheat exports continued to move ahead of last year's pace. Jordan once again made no purchases in its wheat tender. MATIF wheat rallied again as hot and dry weather across western Europe remained the dominant market driver. US wheat failed to hold early gains, while corn and soybeans weakened despite sharply lower oil prices. Egypt opened discussions to increase wheat imports from Poland as part of efforts to diversify strategic food supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices briefly dropped back into the $60s after Iran assured the US that commercial vessels would not face additional costs when passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the interim peace agreement. Markets reversed direction, with MATIF wheat easing while US grains recovered alongside firmer oil prices. Traders also digested a fresh round of global production estimates. The European Commission lowered its production forecasts for soft wheat, corn and barley after reducing harvested area estimates, while the IGC raised its outlook for global corn and wheat production. US drought conditions changed little, suggesting European weather remains the larger concern for grain markets. Grains finished the week lower, led by wheat, as traders shifted their attention toward the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Weather remains the dominant driver, particularly for European crops facing prolonged heat and for US corn entering its critical pollination period. French wheat ratings slipped another two percentage points but remained above last year and the five-year average, while maize conditions deteriorated more sharply. US-Iran tensions eased after both sides agreed to halt attacks ahead of renewed peace talks in Doha, although shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain closely monitored. The Russian ruble weakened sharply, switching Russia's wheat export tax back on after several weeks at zero.

Freight (Lite) : Dry bulk freight lost some momentum this week, but performance varied significantly across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax was the strongest segment, posting gains while Supramax eased from recent highs and Capesize continued to weaken. In the geared market, the Atlantic remained firmer than the Pacific, particularly in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, where prompt vessel supply stayed tight. The reopening of Hormuz and the US-Iran agreement pushed bunker prices sharply lower, with Brent falling to around USD 74 per barrel. However, freight rates have not fully reflected lower fuel costs. Security incidents near Oman continue to create uncertainty around routing, insurance and Gulf operations, meaning owners still price in geopolitical risk despite cheaper bunkers. For freight buyers, the divide remains clear. Atlantic prompt positions continue to command premiums due to tighter vessel availability, while the Pacific offers greater flexibility as supply remains more comfortable. Handysize remained resilient despite weakness in larger geared segments. Atlantic markets continued to outperform, supported by grain demand and tight nearby supply, while Asia stayed stable rather than strong. Europe remained subdued as oversupply continued to limit upside. East Coast South America maintained firm levels, although activity slowed slightly after the recent rally. Grain demand from Brazil continues to underpin sentiment, and prompt July vessel supply remains limited. The US Gulf also held firm, with charterers still paying premium levels for prompt trans-Atlantic grain business. Although headline vessel numbers appear comfortable, much fixing has occurred privately, leaving the prompt market tighter than it appears. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean improved only gradually as grain demand remained selective and supply stayed workable. North Europe remained stable but uninspiring. Scrap and grain demand were insufficient to tighten the market, leaving owners increasingly focused on Atlantic alternatives. Overall, buyers should continue securing Atlantic Handysize cargoes early, while maintaining greater flexibility in North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax softened slightly after several weeks of strong gains, although the Atlantic continued to outperform the Pacific by a wide margin. The US Gulf remained the strongest basin, with trans-Atlantic and Mediterranean business still fixing in the low to mid USD 30,000s per day. However, fresh enquiry slowed during the week, flattening the rally rather than reversing it. East Coast South America remained firm, although market participants increasingly believe rates are approaching their near-term ceiling. Grain demand remains healthy, but further upside now appears more limited. The Mediterranean and Black Sea continued improving as clinker, grain and West Africa cargoes absorbed part of the regional oversupply. Conditions are firmer than earlier in June, although not yet tight enough to create a genuine squeeze. Asia presented the weakest picture. Indonesian and Southeast Asian business softened as prompt vessel availability increased faster than cargo demand, leaving Atlantic earnings substantially above Pacific equivalents. Overall, Atlantic Supramax should still be booked ahead of Pacific business, although buyers no longer need to chase every indication as aggressively as they did a week ago. Panamax emerged as the strongest freight segment this week, supported by improving Atlantic fundamentals while the Pacific finally began finding a floor after several weeks of weakness. The Atlantic strengthened as prompt North Continent tonnage tightened and trans-Atlantic demand improved. East Coast South America continued to benefit from healthy grain demand, particularly for late July positions, while prompt June windows remained more balanced. The US Gulf stayed firmer than the Pacific, supported by steady grain and mineral enquiry, although the strongest tightening remained centred on the wider North Atlantic rather than the Gulf alone. The Pacific remained softer overall, but the downside now appears increasingly limited after rates tested the USD 13,000 per day range on shorter voyages. Vessel supply remains comfortable, allowing buyers greater flexibility unless prompt dates are required. Europe also improved as prompt North Continent supply tightened and mineral demand strengthened, giving owners more negotiating power for immediate positions. Overall, Panamax currently offers the strongest outlook among the major dry bulk segments. Buyers should prioritise Atlantic grain cargoes while continuing to approach Pacific business more patiently. Fuel and bunkers Lower oil prices have eased voyage economics, but freight has not surrendered all of the geopolitical premium built into Atlantic markets earlier this month. Security and routing Hormuz has reopened, but recent security incidents near Oman demonstrate that routing risks remain. Insurance costs and operational uncertainty continue to influence freight pricing. Agricultural flows Improved Brazilian corn production estimates continue supporting Atlantic grain exports and provide a positive backdrop for freight demand heading into July. Atlantic versus Pacific Atlantic markets continue outperforming the Pacific due to tighter prompt vessel availability, particularly for geared vessels. The Pacific remains more balanced, allowing buyers greater flexibility. Paper markets softened this week despite continued resilience in Atlantic physical freight. Panamax spot continues trading above forward values, reflecting stronger Atlantic grain demand than currently priced into derivatives. Supramax paper weakened behind the front month, although Atlantic physical rates continue commanding meaningful premiums over Asia. Handysize paper remains broadly aligned with physical values, although Atlantic routes continue outperforming generic index levels. Overall, buyers should avoid relying solely on softer paper markets as an indication that Atlantic prompt freight will become easier, particularly for grain cargoes. Panamax currently offers the strongest freight outlook, supported by tighter Atlantic supply and improving grain demand. Supramax remains attractive in the Atlantic, although momentum has slowed compared with previous weeks. Buyers should continue booking Atlantic cargoes ahead of Pacific positions but can negotiate more selectively than before. Handysize continues to prove resilient thanks to healthy Atlantic grain demand and stable Australian activity. Early booking remains advisable for Atlantic cargoes, while North Europe and the Pacific continue offering greater flexibility for buyers.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/2026: The main macro shift was the US-Iran deal framework and the reopening of Hormuz. This lowered bunker expectations and eased the most extreme Gulf panic, but it has not returned the market to normal. Insurance, mine clearance, crew changes and the restart of Gulf cargo programmes remain uncertain.

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/06/26 : Grain markets started the week mixed, with US wheat futures recovering from oversold levels while European wheat continued to drift lower. Soybeans extended their losing streak, and corn stabilized only after reaching fresh lows. Despite ongoing volatility in oil markets, agricultural markets appeared increasingly focused on crop conditions and supply fundamentals rather than energy prices. The fundamental picture remained mixed. Russian wheat prices weakened ahead of the new season, while US corn exports continued to outperform expectations. Markets traded in a narrow range as liquidation pressure appeared to ease following several weeks of heavy selling. Attention shifted toward the upcoming USDA report, although expectations pointed to only limited revisions. Export demand remained active. Jordan secured wheat for August shipment at slightly lower prices than the previous tender, while Bangladesh entered the market with a wheat tender of its own. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, with customs data showing shipments above 22 million tons and export programs suggesting actual exports remain significantly higher. Meanwhile, weather conditions across much of the US Corn Belt and northern Europe remained broadly favorable. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and pressured broader financial markets. Grains initially followed energy higher but failed to hold gains as traders remained focused on the upcoming USDA report and generally comfortable supply prospects. Positioning data showed a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative traders flipping from a net long to a net short position in MATIF wheat. At the same time, expectations for the USDA report pointed toward only minor changes to US balance sheets, while larger South American crops continued to weigh on global corn and soybean outlooks. Inflation also remained a concern after US consumer prices reached their highest level in three years. The USDA report broadly matched market expectations, leaving corn under the most pressure after global ending stocks came in above forecasts. Kansas wheat was the relative outperformer following another reduction in US HRW production, while falling oil prices added further pressure across the grain complex. Outside the USDA report, conditions remained generally favorable. Drought coverage declined across US corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas, while Argentina continued reporting solid planting and harvest progress. The US CPC also confirmed that El Niño conditions are present, a development that will be closely monitored in the months ahead, particularly for Australia and other weather-sensitive exporters. Grains finished the week on a weak note, with corn the only major contract able to post modest gains. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement of an interim US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodity markets throughout the conflict. French wheat conditions improved slightly, adding further pressure to wheat prices and reinforcing confidence in the crop outlook. There was also unconfirmed discussion that China may have purchased French wheat, which, if confirmed, would mark the first such purchase since the 2023/24 season. Meanwhile, speculative selling accelerated across CBOT markets, with funds flipping from a large net long to a net short position in corn and expanding already substantial short positions in Chicago wheat.

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/06/2026: Dry bulk freight stayed firm this week, but the strength was not evenly spread. Panamax and Supramax were the strongest parts of the market, while Handysize improved in selected routes and Capesize moved lower. The main pressure is now concentrated in the geared Atlantic and selected Pacific routes. Freight is not rising everywhere, but where prompt tonnage has cleared, buyers face a real replacement problem. The Iran conflict remains the main macro driver. Oil prices eased, but freight did not follow in the same way because owners still need to price insurance risk, bunker access and route uncertainty. Handysize improved on the index and in selected Atlantic and Pacific routes, but the market remains mixed by basin. East Coast South America firmed late in the week, helped by sugar, grain and second-half June demand. The market is balanced rather than tight, but owners regained some confidence as larger segments strengthened.The US Gulf stayed firm, supported by steady enquiry and a balanced tonnage list. Inter-Caribbean business remained active, while Atlantic demand was strong enough to hold rates. The Black Sea improved modestly from weak levels, supported by West Africa grains and clinker, but demand is still selective. The Continent also improved, mainly on scrap and forward demand, though it still lags the stronger Atlantic basins. Overall, Handysize is firmer, but not in a full squeeze. Buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Supramax remained firm and strengthened further in the Atlantic. The US Gulf stayed the standout basin, supported by grain, petcoke and coal demand. Prompt tonnage cleared sharply, leaving owners with stronger control over June coverage. East Coast South America also pushed higher, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul demand supporting the market. The prompt list shortened, giving owners more leverage. The Black Sea improved clearly as more cargo appeared and excess supply was absorbed. The region is no longer as weak as it was in late May.Europe also firmed materially, led by scrap and a healthier supply-demand balance. It still followed the Atlantic rather than leading it, but buyers now have less room to wait than earlier in the month. Overall, Supramax is one of the strongest segments, and buyers face real replacement risk if they delay coverage. Panamax stayed firm and regained upward momentum. The Atlantic tightened on prompt dates, especially in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, where charterers needing immediate cover had to pay up. North Coast South America also strengthened. East Coast South America became much firmer, with late June and early July grain demand driving stronger owner confidence. The US Gulf remained firm rather than explosive, supported by grain and mineral enquiry. The Pacific stopped falling and found a firmer floor, supported by Australia and North Pacific cargoes. Overall, Panamax remains one of the cleanest firm segments. Waiting for cheaper freight now looks riskier than it did a week ago. Atlantic Basin The geared Atlantic tightened again. The US Gulf and East Coast South America are now the key pressure points, especially in Supramax and Panamax. Pacific Basin The Pacific stayed firm rather than running sharply higher. Australian and North Pacific cargoes supported the market, while backhaul remained a strong Supramax leg. Europe Europe improved, but it still did not lead the market. The main pricing power remains in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Black Sea The Black Sea improved from weak levels, but demand remains selective and the region still follows broader Atlantic strength rather than setting direction. Fuel and bunker access Bunkers are no longer just a question of price. Fujairah remains tight, while Singapore and Brazil are functioning better. Fuel availability is now shaping freight decisions alongside bunker cost. Security and routing The Persian Gulf still carries real route and insurance risk. Owners remain cautious even when headlines calm for a few days. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue to make Atlantic-to-Pacific replacement expensive, supporting westbound Americas business. China demand risk Chinese steel demand remains the main risk for Capesize. Panamax is better protected by grain demand and tighter Atlantic prompt supply. Europe Europe recovered this week, helped by scrap and forward demand, but it remains less tight than the stronger Atlantic geared markets. Handysize buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe is firmer, but still offers more flexibility. Supramax buyers should prioritise earlier cover in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe now also deserves less patience than it did two weeks ago. Panamax buyers should cover earlier on prompt Atlantic and East Coast South America business. The tactical room to wait has narrowed again. Across all segments, the market remains firm but selective. The strongest risk for buyers is in routes where prompt tonnage has already cleared and replacement is becoming expensive.

Agri- Commodities: 01-05/06/26 : Grain markets started June on a weak footing and struggled to follow the sharp rally in oil prices. While energy markets reacted strongly to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, agricultural markets remained focused on harvest pressure and improving global supply prospects. The fundamental picture was mixed. Australia projected a significantly smaller wheat crop, while Russia continued moving in the opposite direction, with IKAR raising its wheat production estimate again. also remained a key focus, with US corn exports continuing to run ahead of USDA expectations while Morocco's improving harvest outlook pointed to lower wheat import demand later in the year. Grain prices remained under pressure as harvest activity accelerated and markets increasingly disconnected from oil price movements. Kansas wheat continued to lead losses, posting another lower close as harvest pressure built and improved rainfall prospects eased concerns in Europe. The latest EU export data showed wheat shipments continuing to outpace last year, while Morocco announced plans to suspend its wheat import duty from August. However, improved rainfall in Morocco is expected to sharply reduce import demand compared with previous seasons. Inflation concerns also returned to the forefront after Eurozone inflation reached its highest level since 2023, increasing expectations of further ECB tightening. The sell-off intensified midweek as momentum-driven liquidation continued across grain markets. Corn joined wheat in falling back to levels seen before the Iran conflict, while funds aggressively reduced long positions in European wheat. Supply-side developments remained largely bearish. Russia increased its wheat production forecast above 91 million tons, while Tunisia and Jordan remained active buyers in the physical market. Meanwhile, attention shifted to the first confirmed US screwworm case since 1966, raising concerns for livestock production and potentially reducing future feed demand if the outbreak expands. At the macro level, the OECD warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow global growth while increasing inflation pressures. Bearish sentiment remained dominant as soybeans led losses on favorable US weather forecasts and fading optimism over Chinese demand. Traders also continued to monitor the screwworm situation, although no additional outbreaks had yet been reported. Crop conditions remained relatively stable despite drought concerns. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest progress and favorable wheat planting conditions, while drought coverage in US corn and soybean areas increased modestly. Export demand remained disappointing, with weekly US sales failing to show any meaningful improvement despite ongoing trade discussions. Grain markets ended another difficult week lower as funds continued liquidating positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat. MATIF wheat managed to outperform slightly thanks to currency movements, but overall sentiment remained weak. French wheat ratings declined again but remained above both last year and the five-year average. The USDA also confirmed a second Texas screwworm case, prompting expanded containment efforts and increasing concerns about potential impacts on livestock production and feed demand if the outbreak spreads. Positioning data confirmed heavy speculative selling, with corn longs reduced sharply and Chicago wheat shorts climbing to their highest level since February.

Weekly Freight Recap: 05/06/2026 : The dry bulk market lost momentum this week, but it did not break down. Capesize and Panamax corrected from recent highs, while Supramax and Handysize remained relatively resilient. The market is increasingly fragmented, with larger vessels facing softer Atlantic conditions while geared segments continue to find support in the US Gulf and Asia. The key theme remains that freight is no longer moving in one direction. Route-specific fundamentals, vessel positioning and regional cargo flows are driving performance more than broad market sentiment. Handysize was broadly unchanged to slightly firmer in the US Gulf and Asia but softened further in East Coast South America and remained weak across Europe and the Mediterranean. The segment continues to be defined by regional divergence rather than a unified trend. South Atlantic Handysize has now clearly lost the leadership it held earlier in May. Recalada-to-Skaw/Passero eased to around USD 20,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero improved to approximately USD 18,250/day. The Baltic Handysize Index increased to around USD 15,500/day, although most of the support came from the Gulf and Pacific markets rather than South America. East Coast South America remains under pressure from a long prompt vessel list. Grain demand is present but insufficient to absorb incoming ballasters from West Coast South America, West Africa and the Mediterranean. The US Gulf remains the strongest Handysize market in the Atlantic. Vessel supply is balanced, demand remains steady and owners continue to defend levels successfully. The Black Sea and Continent remain weak due to persistent oversupply and limited grain activity. The expected seasonal boost from Black Sea exports is increasingly viewed as a fourth-quarter story rather than an immediate summer catalyst. Overall, buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while earlier coverage remains advisable in the US Gulf and selected Pacific positions. Supramax continued to outperform the larger vessel segments. The US Gulf remained the strongest Atlantic geared market, while Asia regained momentum following holiday disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean moved toward a more balanced position after several weak weeks. The Baltic Supramax Index climbed to around USD 20,000/day, close to a one-year high. The strongest physical support remains concentrated in the US Gulf and selected Asian routes. US Gulf-to-China/South Japan traded around USD 27,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero reached approximately USD 28,500/day. East Coast South America remained active but lacked the momentum seen in previous weeks. Demand remains sufficient to support rates, particularly on fronthaul business, but the basin no longer commands the strongest Atlantic premium. The US Gulf continues to benefit from healthy enquiry, tighter prompt vessel availability and strong support from both Atlantic and fronthaul cargoes. The Continent and Mediterranean have improved materially from early May. Supply and demand are now closer to balance, although neither basin appears tight enough to generate a major upside move. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue prioritising coverage in the US Gulf and stronger Asian routes, while Europe offers greater flexibility. Panamax softened this week and lost the leadership position it held through much of May. The Atlantic weakened as vessel availability increased, while the Pacific remained relatively resilient thanks to Australian and Indonesian export demand. The Baltic Panamax Index declined to approximately USD 20,300/day from around USD 21,000/day the previous week. Atlantic prompt positions have become noticeably easier to cover as the vessel list expanded across most loading regions. South American grain remains the strongest Atlantic outlet, but support is concentrated on later June cargoes rather than prompt loading dates. The prompt market has lost urgency as vessel supply has increased. The US Gulf remains functional but lacks the tightness required for a grain-led rally. Fronthaul demand remains subdued and owners face a more comfortable vessel balance than earlier in May. The Pacific remains the strongest Panamax region. Australian and Indonesian export programmes continue to support round voyages and provide better fundamentals than the Atlantic market currently offers. The Black Sea remains a longer-term story. Export flows are expected to build significantly after harvest, but the largest freight impact is now expected during October and November rather than immediately following harvest. Overall, Panamax buyers now have greater tactical flexibility in prompt Atlantic positions, while Pacific cargoes still require relatively early coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic basin for both Handysize and Supramax. Balanced vessel supply and steady cargo demand continue to support rates. East Coast South America Handysize softened further and Supramax stabilised. Growing vessel availability continues to outweigh current grain demand. Pacific Basin The most resilient region for larger vessels. Australian and Indonesian exports continue to support Panamax activity, while Asian Supramax routes remain firm. Mediterranean & Black Sea Still the easiest regions to cover. Oversupply remains the dominant theme and stronger seasonal grain flows are unlikely to materially tighten conditions before autumn. Fuel and energy Bunker prices declined again, but freight rates did not follow proportionally lower. Route risk and replacement costs remain more important pricing factors than fuel alone. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro influence. Hormuz continues to operate under severe constraints, keeping insurance costs elevated and distorting vessel deployment decisions. Panama Canal High transit costs and limited flexibility continue to discourage Atlantic-to-Pacific repositioning, supporting Atlantic replacement values. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, but weakness in Chinese steel production is beginning to weigh on sentiment for Capesize and Panamax markets. Black Sea exports The expected seasonal export increase appears concentrated in October and November rather than July. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate summer freight boost from Black Sea grain. Handysize remains a basin-by-basin market. South America and Europe continue to offer buyers flexibility, while the US Gulf and Pacific deserve earlier attention when cargo timing is fixed. Supramax remains the healthiest geared segment. Strong US Gulf demand and stable Asian fundamentals continue to support rates despite softer conditions in larger vessel classes. Panamax has become more tactical. Prompt Atlantic positions are no longer scarce, but Pacific replacement costs remain elevated and the second half of the year still looks broadly constructive. The market is not weak, but it is increasingly selective. The best opportunities now come from identifying regional imbalances rather than relying on a single global freight trend.

Agri- Commodities: 25-29/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week under pressure as sharply lower oil prices weighed on wheat and rapeseed. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodities in recent weeks. However, uncertainty remained high after US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz took place despite ongoing negotiations. Fundamentally, Russian wheat prices continued to rise, while Europe experienced an unusually early heatwave. Record and near-record May heat across western Europe has increased concerns about crop development and yield potential ahead of the key summer growing period. conditions will remain a key focus as traders assess whether dryness and heat begin to impact crop ratings. US wheat futures extended their decline as improving planting progress and broader market weakness offset support from another deterioration in winter wheat conditions. Winter wheat ratings fell to their lowest level for this week since 1986, highlighting the continued challenges facing US wheat production despite recent rainfall in some regions. The European Commission reduced production estimates for wheat, barley, and corn, reinforcing concerns about the upcoming EU harvest. Ukraine maintained a relatively stable wheat outlook, while export activity remained solid on both sides of the Atlantic. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, with export programs suggesting shipments have already surpassed 25 million tons. Grain markets moved lower again as oil prices fell sharply following reports of a potential US-Iran interim agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Chicago wheat, which has shown one of the strongest correlations with oil during recent months, led the decline. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continued to create volatility across agricultural markets. Global supply prospects also improved. India reported a record wheat harvest, while Sovecon increased its Russian wheat production forecast above 90 million tons. Harvest activity began across key US wheat regions, although drought, freeze damage, and excessive moisture continue to create mixed yield expectations. Meanwhile, speculative investors further increased their net long positions in MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets traded mixed as traders reacted to a combination of geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and rumors of improved US-China trade relations. Reports that the US and Iran could extend their ceasefire by 60 days helped calm energy markets and pushed oil prices lower. Meanwhile, speculation that China may reduce tariffs on US grain imports supported corn and soybeans. Drought remained widespread across US winter wheat areas, although conditions improved slightly from the previous week. Argentina continued to report favorable growing conditions, with wheat planting progressing well and production forecasts remaining strong for both soybeans and corn. Wheat prices ended the week sharply lower, with US futures falling more than 2% and MATIF wheat also posting significant losses. Corn came under pressure as funds continued to liquidate large long positions accumulated earlier in the season. Despite the decline, markets began the new week with some recovery as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations persisted. In Europe, French wheat ratings declined modestly but remained above last year's levels. Export demand remained steady, although US corn sales were near the lower end of expectations. Positioning data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans, while speculative short positions in Chicago wheat increased further. At the same time, negotiations between the US and Iran continued without a final agreement, leaving geopolitical risk as an important factor for commodity markets moving forward.

Weekly Freight Recap: 29/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained fragmented this week, with strength concentrated in specific routes rather than across entire basins. Panamax stayed firm in the Pacific but softened on prompt Atlantic dates, Supramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Handysize improved in the US Gulf and Asia but weakened in South America and Europe. Capesize continued to trade from an elevated base. The key market theme is that freight is no longer moving as one block. Atlantic grain regions are behaving differently, vessel positioning has become increasingly important, and regional supply-demand balances are driving rate direction more than broad macro sentiment. Handysize was firmer in the US Gulf, softer in East Coast South America, weak across the Mediterranean and Continent, and remained constructive in Asia. The segment continues to deliver mixed signals depending on basin. The biggest shift was the change in Atlantic leadership. The US Gulf overtook South America as the stronger Atlantic market, with US Gulf-to-Continent rates rising to around USD 18,000/day while Recalada-to-Continent rates slipped to around USD 20,000/day. Heavy ballast pressure in South America continues to weigh on prompt positions. East Coast South America softened again as too many vessels rolled into the same early June loading window. Grain and sugar demand remain present but are not strong enough to absorb the growing list of available ships. The US Gulf improved thanks to healthier cargo flow and a more balanced vessel list. Demand is not exceptionally strong, but it is sufficient to support higher levels than a week ago. The Black Sea and Continent remained under pressure due to persistent oversupply and limited cargo activity. Overall, Handysize buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while US Gulf positions deserve more attention if June timing is important. Supramax remained firm overall, although basin divergence widened further. The US Gulf continued to be the strongest Atlantic geared market, the Continent improved modestly, while East Coast South America became increasingly positional rather than directional. The US Gulf remained the standout performer. Rates held around USD 28,000/day to the Continent, USD 30,000/day to West Mediterranean, and approximately USD 28,000/day to China and South Japan. Strong enquiry and tightening prompt supply continue to support owners. East Coast South America was broadly flat to slightly softer. Prompt ships have started discounting to secure cargoes, while mid-June dates continue to command premiums. The market remains supported but lacks the momentum seen earlier in May. The Continent improved from recent lows as additional scrap cargoes surfaced and some ballasters were drawn toward South America. Nevertheless, the basin remains balanced rather than tight. The Black Sea remains weaker than the Atlantic, with demand still insufficient to absorb available tonnage. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue moving early in the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes, while East Coast South America and Mediterranean positions offer greater flexibility. Panamax remained firm overall, although the Atlantic and Pacific are now clearly diverging. Pacific markets remain well supported by Australian and Indonesian export activity, while prompt Atlantic positions have softened as vessel availability increased. The Baltic Panamax average remained around USD 20,500–21,000/day, but that headline number masks a growing regional split. Pacific rounds continue to trade around the low USD 20,000s/day, supported by steady export flow and tighter vessel positioning. In South America, grain demand remains supportive for late June positions, but prompt sentiment has weakened. Early vessels are fixing significantly below forward positions as the prompt list has expanded. The US Gulf remained supported but no longer looks tight. Grain and mineral demand remains present, but much of the cargo interest is focused on forward dates rather than prompt loading windows. Europe also softened as grain demand failed to keep pace with growing vessel availability. Mineral cargoes continue to provide support, but not enough to tighten the prompt market. Overall, buyers now have slightly more flexibility in prompt Atlantic Panamax positions, while Pacific business still requires earlier coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region this week. Handysize and Supramax both improved, supported by healthier cargo flow and tighter vessel positioning. East Coast South America Momentum faded across Handysize and Supramax as prompt vessel supply increased. Forward positions remain better supported than prompt dates. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm markets, supported by Australian minerals, Indonesian exports and relatively tighter vessel balances. Panamax remains particularly strong. Mediterranean & Black Sea Oversupply remains the dominant theme. Cargo volumes are insufficient to absorb available tonnage, limiting owners’ ability to push rates higher. Fuel and energy Bunker prices softened, but freight largely ignored the move. Route risk, replacement cost and disrupted vessel circulation continue to outweigh lower fuel prices. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz continues to operate under significant constraints, affecting voyage planning, insurance costs and vessel positioning. Panama Canal High transit costs continue supporting Atlantic freight by discouraging vessel repositioning between basins. US Gulf freight remains a major beneficiary of this dynamic. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while any additional Chinese grain buying from the US could quickly tighten Atlantic grain freight again. Europe The region remains oversupplied. Holidays reduced liquidity, but vessel availability remains the main obstacle to a broader recovery. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. The US Gulf looks firmer and deserves earlier coverage when June timing is fixed. Supramax buyers should continue prioritising the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes. East Coast South America has become more positional and less urgent, while Mediterranean opportunities remain available. Panamax buyers can afford slightly more patience in prompt Atlantic positions than they could a few weeks ago. However, Pacific business remains tight enough to justify earlier coverage. The market remains firm in absolute terms, but increasingly fragmented. Success over the coming weeks will depend less on overall market direction and more on identifying which individual routes are tightening and which are quietly becoming oversupplied.

Agri- Commodities: 18-22/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week firmer, led by corn and Chicago wheat, as traders focused on expectations that both commodities could benefit from potential Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods. Wheat markets also found additional support from another deterioration in US winter wheat conditions, which fell to the lowest level for this time of year since 1996. European wheat followed higher as well, although gains were more limited due to expectations that any Chinese buying would mainly reshape existing trade flows rather than create entirely new demand. US crop progress showed rapid planting pace for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat, all running ahead of expectations. At the same time, MARS lowered EU yield estimates for both wheat and barley, with declines expected across most of Europe. Export inspections were disappointing for wheat, while soybeans continued to lag sharply behind last year’s export pace to China. In the background, markets also reacted to renewed geopolitical uncertainty after Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran to allow more time for negotiations, while the EU warned that the Iran conflict could weaken growth and increase inflationary pressure. US wheat prices initially rallied following the poor winter wheat ratings, but gains faded later in the session as China still had not confirmed the agricultural purchase commitments discussed by the US. Outside of that, trading was relatively quiet, with attention increasingly shifting toward longer-term planting incentives and geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Global supply outlooks remained mixed. Germany increased winter wheat area modestly for the 2026 harvest, while analysts in Brazil warned that soybean area growth could slow sharply due to weak margins and high fertilizer costs. Algeria secured milling wheat in an international tender, while Jordan again refrained from purchasing wheat. EU exports remained ahead of last year, though the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, NATO discussions about a potential Hormuz shipping mission highlighted growing concerns around global energy supply security. Grain markets were broadly weaker midweek as sharply lower oil prices pressured sentiment across commodities. Milling wheat was the exception, supported by unconfirmed reports of French wheat demand from unusual destinations such as Mexico. The absence of any confirmed Chinese buying continued to disappoint traders and limited broader upside momentum. Weather conditions became a growing concern across several regions. Forecasts pointed to increasing dryness and above-normal temperatures across most of Europe, while Russia was expected to receive beneficial rainfall that could support winter crops but further delay sowing. In the US, conditions remained mostly favorable for completing planting, including some relief rain in key HRW wheat areas. Positioning data showed non-commercial participants sharply increasing their net long in MATIF wheat and rapeseed, reflecting stronger confidence in European markets compared with CBOT. CBOT grain prices continued to ease on Thursday, while MATIF wheat remained comparatively resilient. Traders appeared increasingly cautious ahead of the US Memorial Day weekend, especially after the strong rally seen earlier in the month. Oil prices remained relatively stable, removing some of the outside-market support for US grains. Fundamentally, several major exporters updated their outlooks. Argentina announced lower export taxes for wheat and barley beginning next year, while Turkey projected a sharp rebound in cereal production. Germany’s DRV revised wheat area slightly higher but still expects lower production year-on-year. The IGC maintained its global corn forecast but trimmed wheat production again. US export sales were dominated by exceptionally strong corn demand, particularly from Japan and Mexico, while drought concerns in US winter wheat areas remained elevated despite a slight weekly improvement. There is also talk that Russia is actively selling wheat to Brazil. If true, this should soon be confirmed by . Wheat prices ended the week lower, while corn and soybeans posted modest gains ahead of the long US holiday weekend. With CBOT closed on Monday, attention shifted toward how markets would react to ongoing US-Iran negotiations once trading resumed. Oil prices moved sharply lower after Trump said talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were progressing constructively, although uncertainty remained over how quickly any agreement could materialize. In Europe, French wheat conditions remained stable and comfortably above last year’s levels, though persistent hot and dry weather continues to raise concerns. Germany also secured a new phytosanitary agreement allowing wheat exports to Indonesia, opening access to one of the world’s largest import markets. In South America, Argentina further raised both soybean and corn production estimates, reinforcing expectations for very large exportable supplies. Positioning data showed funds reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans while covering part of their Chicago wheat short position.

Weekly Freight Recap: 22/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the strongest gains were concentrated in fewer routes and vessel classes. Panamax continued to lead the market, Capesize stayed elevated from a high base, Supramax held firm in selected Atlantic and Pacific pockets, while Handysize weakened in South America and Europe but remained supported in the Pacific. The market is now being driven more by route scarcity and vessel positioning than by one broad basin trend. Middle East disruption remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz is still heavily constrained in practice, and owners continue pricing in routing risk and tighter effective vessel supply even when crude softens on negotiation headlines. Handysize weakened again in East Coast South America and Europe, while the US Gulf improved modestly, and the Pacific stayed constructive. South America lost momentum as ballast pressure continued to build. Too many prompt ships rolled into the same early June window, keeping owners flexible and limiting upside. The US Gulf was firmer than the headline market suggested. A steadier June cargo program and a cleaner vessel list helped improve trans-Atlantic business. The Black Sea remained soft due to oversupply and shallow grain demand. The Continent and Baltic also stayed under pressure, with too many prompt ships chasing limited enquiry. The Pacific remains the strongest area in the segment, supported by tighter prompt availability and firmer Australia-linked business. Overall, buyers can now be more patient in East Coast South America than they were a week ago, while US Gulf positions deserve more caution heading into June. Supramax stayed firm overall, but the split between strong and weak routes widened further. East Coast South America remained one of the strongest areas, especially on long-haul and fronthaul business. Larger units continued benefiting from Panamax-style stems, which helped keep the basin elevated. The US Gulf also stayed firm, particularly on Atlantic-facing business into the Mediterranean and Continent. Tight first-half June positioning continued to support owners. West Coast South America is also tightening, while the Pacific remained broadly stable to firm. The Black Sea improved slightly but remained secondary, and the Continent continued lagging the stronger Atlantic basins despite a small midweek improvement in scrap demand. Overall, Supramax still has a firm base, but strength is now concentrated in vessel-scarce grain and long-haul routes rather than across the full basin. Panamax remained the strongest and most consistent freight segment. Both basins stayed firm, with the Atlantic supported by North Coast South America grain flows and tightening prompt supply, while the Pacific continued benefiting from mineral demand and Australian business. South America remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, with firmer fronthaul demand and tighter vessel balance continuing to support owners. The US Gulf improved alongside the broader Atlantic market, though South America still maintained the stronger premium. Europe also stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand supporting the market while prompt vessel availability tightened. Paper and physical continue to move in the same direction, reinforcing the strength of the segment. Overall, Panamax remains the segment where buyers have the least room to wait. Atlantic Basin Panamax and selected Supramax routes remain firm due to grain demand and tighter prompt supply. Handysize has softened in South America amid rising ballast pressure. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm regions across all major sizes, supported by minerals, Australia, and tighter vessel positioning. Mediterranean / Black Sea The region remains oversupplied overall. Some western Mediterranean routes improved slightly, but cargo depth is still insufficient to drive a broader recovery. Fuel and energy Freight is no longer reacting directly to every crude move. Routing risk, replacement cost, and vessel positioning remain more important than flat bunker price alone. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained, and Gulf-linked businesses continue to carry a premium. Owners are still differentiating sharply between standard Indian Ocean trades and Gulf exposure. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue supporting Atlantic-to-Pacific positioning by tightening effective vessel supply. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while potential US-China agricultural flows could further strengthen Atlantic grain demand. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity again, but the core imbalance remains unchanged. Too many prompt ships are still limiting recovery in the Continent and the eastern Mediterranean. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America and Europe, but move earlier on prompt Pacific business and selected US Gulf June cargoes. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America, West Coast South America and selected US Gulf Atlantic routes. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more flexibility. Panamax buyers should continue prioritising earlier cover. Both physical and paper markets remain aligned, and vessel availability continues tightening in the strongest grain and mineral corridors. Across all segments, the market remains firm, but increasingly selective. The key challenge is no longer identifying whether freight is strong or weak overall, but identifying which routes are tightening fastest.

Agri- Commodities: 11-15/05/26 : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as tensions in the US-Iran conflict intensified ahead of the USDA WASDE report and the Trump-Xi meeting. US winter wheat ratings fell to the second lowest level for this week in 30 years, while wheat futures moved higher again overnight following the weaker-than-expected crop conditions report. Russian wheat export values also remained firm as markets focused on tightening global supply expectations. The USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheets delivered a bullish tone for wheat, with US production projected down 11.5 mmt y/y and world wheat output expected to fall by around 25 mmt across major exporters. Corn and soybeans received more supportive-than-bearish balance sheets as well, with global ending stocks for both crops coming in below expectations. Wheat prices surged following the WASDE release, with both Kansas and Chicago wheat futures closing limit up after USDA projected the lowest US HRW wheat production in 69 years. The market was additionally supported by poor crop conditions and disappointing yield estimates from the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas tour. Outside the US, France projected a sharp drop in maize plantings for 2026 as farmers react to low prices and weak margins, while continued pointing to stronger EU wheat exports than official customs data suggested. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed as oil prices posted a third straight daily gain, adding broader support to commodity markets. Wheat prices turned lower midweek after another failed attempt to rally further, while traders shifted their focus toward the US-China summit in Beijing. Kansas wheat remained relatively supported by poor crop conditions and concerns over global wheat production, including sharply lower forecasts for Argentina’s upcoming crop. Elsewhere, Morocco suspended wheat imports after rainfall boosted its cereals harvest expectations to 9 mmt. France also slightly increased its wheat export outlook, while fund positioning remained volatile as non-commercial traders sharply reduced their MATIF wheat net long during the previous reporting week. A wave of liquidation hit grain markets on Thursday after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver major new Chinese buying commitments. Soybeans led the decline, with losses quickly spreading into corn and wheat, while MATIF wheat remained somewhat less sensitive than CBOT markets. The final Kansas wheat tour estimate confirmed a 27% y/y drop in average yields, reinforcing concerns over the US HRW crop. At the same time, drought coverage across US winter wheat areas increased again, while both Brazil and Argentina updated crop estimates showing larger soybean and corn supplies but weaker wheat outlooks. The week ended with sharp losses across grains and oilseeds as speculative positioning built ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting was aggressively liquidated. Wheat fell back to pre-WASDE levels, while corn tested key chart support despite continued strength in oil prices. Over the weekend, however, China and the US announced progress toward a preliminary agricultural trade agreement, including soybean tariff relief and expanded US agricultural purchases. Meanwhile, fund positioning showed managed money increasing its Chicago wheat short despite the earlier wheat rally, while reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans.

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/05/2026 : The dry bulk market stayed firm this week, but leadership shifted again. Panamax strengthened further and became the clearest bullish segment, while Capesize remained elevated. Supramax firmed selectively, led by South America and parts of the Pacific, while Handysize split more sharply between a weaker Atlantic and a firmer Pacific. The market is no longer moving on one common basin story. Route-specific vessel scarcity, Atlantic grain timing and persistent Middle East risk are now the main drivers. Crude remained headline-sensitive, but owners did not materially cheapen forward freight. War-risk, bunker access and routing uncertainty continue to distort replacement costs and ballast decisions. Handysize weakened in the Atlantic but stayed firmer in the Pacific. East Coast South America lost momentum as ballast pressure increased. Prompt supply became heavier, and limited nearby demand pushed rates lower after the stronger levels seen earlier in May. The US Gulf stayed broadly flat. Some cargoes were covered early in the week, but this was more calendar-driven than a sign of real tightening. The Black Sea remained soft, with long vessel supply and thin cargo flow continuing to pressure the market. The Continent and Baltic also stayed soft to flat, with too much tonnage against limited straightforward cargo. The Pacific was the main positive area, with tighter lists and firmer owner ideas. Overall, Handysize buyers can wait longer in the Atlantic unless timing is fixed, but should move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax firmed overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America strengthened again, supported by tight prompt supply, fronthaul demand and larger units being pulled into Panamax-style stems. The US Gulf remained firm on selected Atlantic routes, especially where vessel willingness was limited. However, fronthaul to Asia eased slightly, showing that strength is not uniform. West Coast South America turned sharply stronger, adding another layer of support to the wider South American market. The Black Sea improved modestly but remained secondary, while the Continent softened again due to limited fresh cargo and an overly comfortable tonnage list. Overall, Supramax remains constructive, but buyers should focus on route scarcity rather than assuming the whole basin is firm. Panamax strengthened again and remains the strongest freight segment. South American grain remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, supported by cargo density and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic market, helped by grain and fronthaul demand, though South America still held the better premium. The Pacific remained firm, supported by mineral demand and Australian business. Europe stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand helping support fronthaul, while prompt ships became harder to source. Overall, Panamax is the most time-sensitive segment for buyers. The physical market is firm, and paper is reinforcing the rally. Atlantic Basin Panamax remains strong, led by South American grain and tighter prompt supply. Supramax is firm in selected route pockets, while Handysize has weakened as ballast pressure builds. Pacific Basin The Pacific is firmer across several sizes, especially Handysize, Supramax and Panamax. Mineral demand and tighter lists continue to support sentiment. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains one of the weaker areas. Vessel supply is still long, and local demand is not strong enough to drive a broad recovery. Fuel and energy Bunker prices remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Freight replacement costs are still being shaped by war-risk and routing uncertainty, not just flat bunker prices. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained. Red Sea, India-linked and Gulf-adjacent employment still carry premiums, and route pricing has not normalised. Panama Canal Canal friction continues to support Atlantic-to-Pacific freight by making vessel substitution harder and extending voyage chains. China demand risk Panamax and larger sizes remain supported by Pacific minerals and possible agricultural flows into China, but the broader demand picture is still policy-dependent. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity, but the core imbalance remains. The Continent and eastern Mediterranean still have too many prompt ships for a broad freight recovery. Handysize buyers should wait in Atlantic positions unless cargo timing is fixed, but move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America and selected US Gulf trades. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more patience. Panamax buyers should prioritise earlier coverage. This is the strongest physical segment, supported by both Atlantic grain and Pacific mineral demand. Across all segments, freight remains firm, but increasingly route-specific. The key risk for buyers is waiting too long in the basins where vessel scarcity is already visible.

Agri- Commodities: 04-08/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer as rising oil prices supported grains, with soymeal and Chicago wheat leading gains. Iran struck the UAE as the US escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz, adding fresh geopolitical risk to commodity markets. Saudi Arabia bought 985k tons of wheat for June–August shipment, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values for early June rose to $238.5/t. US winter wheat ratings improved slightly nationwide, though key HRW states continued to decline. Corn and soybean planting remained ahead of average pace, while strong US corn export inspections and an upward revision to Brazil’s corn crop added to the market focus. Grains turned lower on Tuesday as improving weather forecasts pressured wheat and weaker oil prices triggered profit-taking in corn and soybeans. Markets also reacted to signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after the US paused its naval escort operation. Crop concerns, however, remained in focus. Oklahoma’s wheat tour projected sharply lower yields and production compared with last year, while traders also looked ahead to the upcoming Wheat Quality Council tour across major US wheat states. Oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied on reports that the US and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war, sending most grain and oilseed markets lower. Kansas wheat was the exception, recovering on ongoing US weather concerns and new frost risks. Elsewhere, Algeria bought an estimated 390k–420k tons of wheat in its latest tender, while Tunisia projected a larger domestic harvest after favorable rainfall. Fund activity remained aggressive, with non-commercial traders significantly increasing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets finished mostly lower but recovered well from intraday lows as oil prices rebounded later in the session. Kansas wheat remained under pressure despite continued concerns over US HRW crop conditions. The US Drought Monitor showed 70% of US winter wheat areas affected by drought, far above last year’s levels. Export sales disappointed for wheat and soybeans, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again after renewed exchanges between the US and Iran. US wheat futures outperformed European markets on Friday, while corn and soybeans also ended firmer ahead of the USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet projections. Energy prices moved higher again as peace talks between the US and Iran appeared to stall. Analysts expect lower US wheat and corn production in the new season, while managed money continued aggressively adding to corn and soybean longs. Funds bought 80k corn contracts as markets whipsawed on Iran headlines.

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the move was uneven by size and basin. Capesize and Kamsarmax strengthened most clearly, Ultramax stayed firm but became more selective, and Handysize improved in East Coast South America while parts of the US Gulf and Europe lost momentum. The market is now split between firmer grain and mineral basins on one side and oversupplied Mediterranean and Continent positions on the other. Bunker prices eased with crude during the week, but freight did not soften in the same way. Owners remain cautious on forward cover because Middle East risk is still unresolved and the Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally. Handysize remained split by region. East Coast South America strengthened again and remains the clearest area of support. Soybeans and sugar continued to drive demand, and prompt grain cover still needs to be treated carefully. The US Gulf was broadly flat to mixed. Better enquiry appeared earlier in the week, but more tonnage entered the market and capped further upside. The Black Sea stayed soft, with heavy supply and limited grain demand keeping rates under pressure. The Continent softened further as too many prompt ships competed against limited cargo. Most enquiry sat further forward, leaving nearby fixing weak. Asia remained firm and continued to offer one of the cleaner prompt markets. Overall, Handysize strength is concentrated in East Coast South America and Asia, while the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean look less urgent. Ultramax stayed firm overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America remained well supported, especially on fronthaul and north Brazil business. The basin stayed balanced, with steady fixing flow rather than any major squeeze. The US Gulf stayed firm but mixed by route. Fronthaul improved and remained the clearest support, while some Europe-facing routes eased slightly. The Black Sea and Mediterranean remained soft, with structural oversupply still limiting recovery despite some stabilisation. The Continent lost some of last week’s tightness as more tonnage became available and prompt cargo thinned. Overall, Ultramax still has a firm base, but buyers can be more patient on Europe-facing cover while remaining cautious on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Kamsarmax strengthened again and remains the cleanest firm segment. South American grain stayed the best Atlantic outlet, supported by steady cargo flow and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic tone, though it still did not lead the market. The basin is supported, but South America remains stronger. The Pacific stayed firm, helped by strong mineral and Australian business. This remains one of the clearest areas of demand support. Europe remained mixed but firm, with mineral demand doing more to support the basin than grain.Overall, Kamsarmax combines firm physical demand with a tightening vessel balance, making it the strongest segment for the next few weeks. Atlantic Basin South America remains the main source of strength, especially for grain-linked employment. The US Gulf is firmer in Kamsarmax and Ultramax but less convincing in Handysize. The Continent and Mediterranean remain pressured by oversupply. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains strong, particularly for Kamsarmax and prompt Handysize positions. Mineral demand and Australian activity continue to support the market. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains the weakest area. Supply is heavy, grain demand is limited, and owners continue to face pressure unless they can ballast into stronger regions. Fuel and energy Bunker prices eased with crude, but not enough to reset freight. Owners remain cautious because Gulf risk is still unresolved. Security and routing The Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally, and premiums for Red Sea and India-linked employment remain above normal. Panama Canal Canal economics remain supportive for freight, with Atlantic cargoes still competing for Asia-bound vessel capacity and longer voyage chains reducing effective supply. China demand risk Mineral demand continues to support Kamsarmax and larger sizes, but the broader demand picture remains mixed rather than fully bullish. Europe Activity improved after the holiday period, but Mediterranean and eastern Mediterranean vessel supply remains too large for a clean recovery. Handysize should be bought earlier in East Coast South America and on prompt Pacific business. Buyers can wait longer in the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean unless timing is fixed. Ultramax remains firm, especially on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Europe-facing cover looks less urgent where cargo timing allows. Kamsarmax remains the strongest segment, with South America and the Pacific best supported. Waiting for a softer prompt market still looks risky. Across all segments, freight remains supported by tighter vessel positioning, unresolved Middle East risk and stronger mineral and grain basins, even though bunker prices have eased.

Agri- Commodities: 27-01/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer, supported by higher oil prices, though performance diverged across the complex. Soymeal led with a near 3% gain, while Chicago wheat rose more than 2%, in contrast to slightly weaker nearby MATIF wheat. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 985k tons of wheat for June–August arrival, exceeding the initial tender volume, with prices ranging from $273.33 to $285.00/t CnF, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat for May held steady at $237/t. In Europe, MARS raised EU soft wheat yield estimates by 1% to 6.05 t/ha, though still down y/y, with Spain expected to see the largest decline. US winter wheat conditions remained weak at 30% G/E and spring wheat planting lagged, while corn and soybean planting moved quickly. Export inspections showed corn and wheat still ahead of last year, while soybeans lagged, and soymeal futures surged after the Netherlands rejected Argentine cargoes containing the HB4 gene. Wheat markets posted a sharp rally, with Chicago and Kansas futures rising more than 4% and MATIF gaining around 2.5% on heavy volume. Strength in oil prices, tightening US wheat balance sheet expectations, and ongoing weather risks contributed to the move, with funds actively adjusting positions. Geopolitical developments remained central, with reports of a prolonged US naval blockade targeting Iranian trade flows and the UAE’s exit from OPEC raising questions about cohesion within the group. On fundamentals, Canadian wheat production was projected lower at 36.2 mmt, EU export data remained incomplete despite stronger line-up signals, and India proposed regulatory changes to allow higher ethanol blending. The wheat rally paused midweek, though MATIF continued higher, with December futures reaching levels last seen in July 2025. Corn extended its upward trend with a ninth consecutive higher close, approaching key levels, while positioning adjustments were expected ahead of the long weekend. Global supply expectations shifted, with Australian wheat production forecast to fall to 29.0 mmt in 2026/27 due to lower area and yields, aligning with expectations of smaller crops across major exporters. Positioning data showed funds turning net long in MATIF wheat and extending longs in rapeseed, while the US maintained its blockade stance on Iran, keeping pressure on oil markets. With European markets closed, trading activity was quieter, and US wheat saw only marginal movement, while corn remained strong, pushing the December 2026 contract to a new multi-year high. Kansas wheat weakened slightly on improved rainfall forecasts in key areas. In Europe, French wheat conditions edged lower but remained above last year’s levels, while maize planting advanced quickly. The European Commission adjusted its balance sheet with higher production and lower exports, India resumed wheat exports after four years, and fund positioning showed continued strength in corn and wheat while soybean longs were trimmed.

Weekly Freight Recap: 01/05/2026 : The dry bulk market lost some momentum this week, but it did not reverse. Panamax stayed constructive, Supramax and Ultramax eased from recent highs in some basins, and Handysize became more mixed. The market is now being driven by regional timing rather than one broad direction. Hormuz disruption, high fuel costs and elevated insurance continue to keep voyage replacement costs high, even where spot freight has stopped rising. Panama Canal costs and waiting times also remain supportive for freight, especially where Atlantic cargoes are moving toward Asia. Effective supply is still tighter than the raw fleet count suggests. Handysize became more mixed this week. East Coast South America remained the strongest Atlantic area, supported by soybean demand and firmer grain levels. The basin was quieter due to holiday timing, but underlying support remained intact. The US Gulf improved again, with more second-half May cargoes appearing and the tonnage list moving closer to balance. However, supply is still sufficient enough to prevent a sharper rise. The Continent and Mediterranean softened, with thinner demand and more prompt ships giving charterers more leverage. The Black Sea also weakened, with limited grain demand and ample supply keeping rates well below stronger Atlantic grain employment. Asia remained the clearest source of Handysize strength. Overall, Handysize is still better than earlier in April, but the recovery is now selective rather than broad-based. Supramax and Ultramax stayed firm in absolute terms, but the April rally paused. The US Gulf eased slightly from recent highs, though it remains expensive and supported by steady trans-Atlantic demand. The market now looks supported rather than squeezed. South America stayed constructive, with soybean demand continuing to support the main Atlantic grain routes. The basin held up better than some other regions. The Continent firmed further, helped by tight prompt supply and scrap demand. However, the market remains vulnerable if more spot ships appear. The Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf remained weak, while Asia softened from last week’s rally but still held elevated levelsz Overall, Supramax remains firm, but the urgency has eased in parts of the Atlantic. Panamax stayed constructive, but the split between regions became clearer. South American grain remained the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The Pacific stayed firm, with visible cargo flow and strong Australian activity supporting rates. The North Atlantic was softer and remains pressured by a larger vessel list. Mineral demand continues to support parts of the basin more than grain. The US Gulf remained secondary to South America, with stable to slightly firmer sentiment but no clear grain premium. Overall, Panamax remains firm in absolute terms, but strength is concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic is more divided than last week. South America remains supported, the US Gulf has eased in Supramax but improved in Handysize, and the North Atlantic remains burdened by visible tonnage. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains the strongest relative area, especially for Panamax and Handysize. Cargo flow is visible, and positioning remains important. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, but not strong enough to drive the wider market. Routing and fuel costs continue to affect positioning. Fuel and energy Oil and product fuel costs remain high, keeping ballast and forward voyage calculations difficult, especially on longer Atlantic-to-Asia employment. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained and continues to be the main geopolitical factor in freight. Insurance costs remain far above normal. Panama Canal High transit costs and waiting times continue to stretch voyage duration and reduce effective vessel availability. Grains and fertilisers Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, supporting Brazil’s competitive position. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser and energy costs. China demand risk Soft Chinese steel production and weak margins remain a downside risk, especially for larger sizes and Panamax sentiment. Europe Holiday timing and Geneva Dry reduced liquidity this week, making several basins look quieter than the underlying balance suggests. Handysize should remain mixed, with East Coast South America and the Pacific best supported. The Continent, Mediterranean and Black Sea look weaker. Supramax remains firm, but the market has come off the highs. Buyers can be more patient in the US Gulf if timing is flexible, while South America and the Continent still require more caution on prompt coverage. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific. The wider Atlantic still looks looser and less urgent. Across all segments, effective supply remains tight due to routing, canal delays and fuel costs, but the market is no longer rising everywhere at once.

Weekly Freight Recap: 24/04/2026 : The dry bulk market firmed again this week, though the move remained uneven by size and basin. Supramax and Ultramax showed the clearest strength, Panamax stayed constructive, and Handysize continued to improve with a narrower regional spread than last week. The Atlantic is no longer universally cheap. The US Gulf has repriced higher, while South America continues to hold its grain premium. The market is now being driven less by one broad bunker move and more by regional vessel positioning, bunker availability risk, and longer voyage economics. Panama Canal costs and waiting times are also becoming more important as more US cargoes move toward Asia. This is supportive for freight because it stretches voyage duration and reduces effective vessel availability. Handysize improved again this week, but the recovery remained selective. South America strengthened further and remains the strongest Atlantic Handysize basin. Soybean demand continues to support the region, and prompt supply has tightened enough to give owners more leverage. The US Gulf continued to recover, but from a low base. More May cargoes appeared, and the prompt list is clearing, though supply is still ample and the basin remains behind South America. The Black Sea improved slightly but stayed mixed overall. Grain kept the region active, but demand remained too thin to create real momentum. The Continent improved on stronger short-haul and scrap activity, but the picture remains uneven. Grain demand is still secondary, and the basin does not yet have the same strength as South Atlantic grain positions. Overall, Handysize is improving, but ECSA remains the area where buyers need to be most careful on prompt grain stems. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest part of the market, with the Atlantic leading the move. The US Gulf remains the centre of strength. Trans-Atlantic demand continues to drive the market, and owners now have more control on the main Atlantic routes. The Gulf can no longer be treated as the cheaper alternative to South America. South America also strengthened modestly, supported by soybean demand and a cleaner prompt balance. The basin remains firm, though not as explosive as the US Gulf. Asia stayed very firm, supported by tightening prompt lists and bunker availability concerns, which are affecting positioning and voyage calculations. The Black Sea remained softer than the Atlantic, despite some route improvement. Oversupply and limited cargo continue to cap the market. The Continent improved materially after Easter, helped by tighter prompt conventional tonnage and scrap demand, though it remains vulnerable if supply rebuilds. Overall, Supramax is in a firm phase, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Panamax stayed constructive, but the market became more split between stronger Pacific demand and a mixed Atlantic. South America remains the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The region continues to hold a clear grain premium. The US Gulf remained secondary. It improved with the wider market but still did not create a clear grain premium of its own. The Black Sea remained active but not strong. Wheat demand is present, but not enough to reprice the basin meaningfully. The Continent and Baltic improved modestly, with mineral demand providing better support than grain. The North Atlantic tonnage list remains visible, which limits further upside. Overall, Panamax is firm by recent standards, but the strength is still concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic has repriced higher, especially in Supramax and Ultramax. South America remains the key grain premium area, while the US Gulf is no longer clearly cheap in geared freight. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains supportive, particularly for Panamax and Supramax. Tightening prompt lists and bunker risk are helping sentiment. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, with no major shift, but stronger Asian sentiment is helping support nearby positioning. Bunkers and energy Bunker availability remains a practical risk, especially at smaller ports supplied from major hubs. This is affecting ballasting choices, speed decisions and forward voyage calculations. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained in practice. Gulf exposure still carries a premium, and many vessels remain tied up around the Persian Gulf area. Panama Canal Higher canal costs and longer waiting times are supporting freight by stretching voyage duration and reducing effective vessel availability, especially for US Gulf to Asia trades. Commodities and trade flows Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, which continues to favour Brazil over the United States. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser risk and higher input costs. China demand risk The main downside risk remains Chinese destocking. This is more relevant for larger sizes, but it could still weigh on sentiment if it materialises. Handysize should continue to improve selectively, with East Coast South America remaining the strongest area for prompt grain demand. The US Gulf and Black Sea still look less urgent. Supramax remains the firmest segment, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Buyers should be more cautious where cargo timing is fixed. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific, but the wider Atlantic still looks more balanced than tight. Across all segments, freight is being supported by tighter effective supply, regional bunker risk and longer voyage economics. The main downside risk is still demand-led, especially if Chinese buying slows.

Agri- Commodities: 20-24/04/26 : Oil prices started the week firmer, offering some support to Chicago wheat, while Kansas wheat diverged and closed lower as weather forecasts turned slightly more favorable in the US Plains. With markets closely tracking both weather updates and US-Iran developments, sentiment remained highly reactive. Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire beyond midweek, though talks are still ongoing and a deal remains possible. US fundamentals were broadly supportive for wheat. Winter wheat conditions fell another 4 pp to 30% G/E, with Kansas dropping sharply to 24%. Planting progress for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat continued at a steady pace, all slightly ahead of average. Export inspections showed strong wheat demand, while soybean shipments to China remained significantly below last year. Russian wheat FOB prices edged higher, and India approved additional wheat exports, although large-scale shipments remain uncertain. At the same time, China projected a long-term decline in soybean imports, pointing to structural demand changes. Grains and oilseeds moved higher after a slow start as oil prices strengthened on uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. Despite ongoing geopolitical noise, market focus is increasingly shifting toward global weather conditions. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the blockade, keeping uncertainty elevated. Global supply developments remained mixed. Argentina’s corn crop estimate was raised significantly above USDA levels, suggesting potential upward revisions ahead, while Morocco expects its cereals harvest to double following improved rainfall. In contrast, cold weather in Ukraine may delay spring planting. On the demand side, Jordan secured wheat at slightly lower prices, while US export activity remained active with additional corn sales. Currency movements offered some support to EU wheat competitiveness, while the stronger ruble continued to pressure Russian exporters. Markets remained choppy, driven by weather uncertainty and continued geopolitical headlines. Oil prices rebounded further, yet equity markets continued to rally, indicating broader risk appetite. Grain markets also reflected ongoing discussions around planting decisions amid rising input costs. Supply-side updates pointed to both upside and risks. Russia’s wheat crop forecast was raised, though cold weather is delaying spring sowing in both Russia and Ukraine. Argentina and Australia are expected to reduce wheat area, highlighting potential tightening in future supply. EU exports continued to outpace last year, while positioning data showed speculative participants shifting back to a net short in MATIF wheat. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including vessel seizures, supported oil prices and added volatility. Kansas wheat surged to new multi-month highs as dry conditions in the US Plains persisted, with drought coverage rising further. The rally spilled over into Chicago and MATIF wheat, while corn and soybeans traded more quietly. Weather remains the dominant driver, with limited rainfall expected in key regions. Globally, production signals were mixed. The IGC lowered both corn and wheat output estimates, while uncertainty around India’s wheat crop increased due to weather damage. Demand remained active, with Saudi Arabia issuing a large wheat tender. showed strong corn demand but weak wheat figures. Trade flows also drew attention, with reports of Polish wheat sales to the US and potential Russian shipments to Brazil indicating shifting trade dynamics. Markets ended the week mixed. Wheat prices eased as improved rain prospects weighed on Kansas futures, while corn remained stable and soybeans edged higher. Geopolitical developments continued to create uncertainty, though market reactions remained relatively muted. Negotiations between the US and Iran showed limited progress, with conflicting signals around the Strait of Hormuz and broader deal terms. In grains, French wheat conditions slipped slightly but remained well above last year, while maize planting advanced well. Dry conditions across Europe and rising temperatures remain a concern heading into the next week. Positioning data showed funds adding to long positions in corn and soybeans while increasing their net short in wheat.

Agri- Commodities: 13-17/04/26 : Wheat prices started the week strong, supported by renewed US-Iran escalation and disappointing precipitation in the US Plains, as parts of Kansas missed recent rains and forecasts offered little additional relief. US wheat futures led the rally, while MATIF followed more cautiously, and soybeans declined amid concerns that rising geopolitical tensions could negatively affect US-China trade relations. Oil markets reacted only modestly to the US blockade of Iranian ports, suggesting expectations of a potential deal remained in place. US fundamentals were mixed, with winter wheat conditions falling to 34% G/E, well below last year, while planting progress for corn, spring wheat, and soybeans advanced. Export inspections showed steady soybean demand but weaker figures for corn and wheat. Russia saw wheat prices decline, with lower week-on-week, while a strengthening ruble continued to pressure exporter margins. At the same time, a stronger EUR/USD added pressure on MATIF prices. Kansas wheat extended its rally on continued concerns over poor US crop conditions, pulling Chicago wheat higher and further decoupling price direction from oil. Corn remained relatively stable despite signs of renewed demand, while oilseeds weakened alongside a correction in energy markets. Global supply updates pointed to generally comfortable conditions. Russia reported stable winter crop conditions, while France showed strong wheat ratings and a modest increase in planted area. In South America, Brazil’s CONAB raised both corn and soybean production estimates, reinforcing expectations of ample supply. Export activity remained active, with US corn sales to Mexico and unknown destinations, while EU wheat exports continued to outpace last year. At the macro level, the IMF warned that the Middle East conflict could weaken global growth and raise inflation risks. Corn led gains midweek, supported by concerns over dryness in Brazil and planting risks, while soybeans found support from improved sentiment following more positive US-China rhetoric. Wheat markets were mixed, with US futures slightly higher and MATIF under pressure, while broader financial markets showed increased risk appetite as equities reached record highs. European data highlighted mixed developments, with Germany projecting slightly higher wheat area but lower production, while rapeseed output is expected to increase. France adjusted its export outlook marginally and trimmed ending stocks. At the same time, expectations of reduced corn planting in France due to high input costs pointed to potential structural shifts in cropping decisions. Positioning data showed heavy liquidation of speculative long positions in MATIF wheat, contributing to recent price pressure. The focus remained firmly on US HRW wheat, with Kansas futures extending gains for a fifth consecutive session as drought concerns persisted. While Chicago and MATIF wheat followed, the divergence suggested that the issue remained largely regional. The US Drought Monitor confirmed that a significant share of winter wheat areas remained affected, with little improvement from recent rainfall. Elsewhere, supply prospects remained strong. Argentina raised its corn production forecast following improved crop conditions and expanded plantings, pointing to increased export availability. Western Australia signaled a shift away from wheat toward other crops due to cost pressures. US export sales were mixed, with weaker wheat demand but solid corn performance. In Algeria, durum wheat purchases highlighted continued import demand, while oil markets softened slightly on renewed hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. A sharp decline in oil prices weighed on wheat at the end of the week, while corn and soybeans remained relatively stable as their correlation with energy markets appeared weaker. However, geopolitical uncertainty quickly resurfaced, with conflicting signals around access to the Strait of Hormuz driving renewed volatility. European crop conditions remained stable, with French wheat ratings holding steady and maize planting progressing. In the US, concerns increased over potential frost in drought-affected winter wheat areas, with no improvement expected in upcoming condition reports. On the demand side, Turkey announced a temporary reduction in corn import tariffs to support domestic supply. Positioning data showed managed money reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans, while wheat positions remained largely unchanged.

Weekly Freight Recap: 17/04/2026 : The dry bulk market firmed this week, though the recovery remained uneven across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax and Ultramax showed the clearest gains, while Handysize improved more slowly and in some areas remained soft. The broader backdrop is still mixed. Fuel costs are lower than during the March spike, but bunker pricing continues to vary sharply by port, making forward pricing difficult. At the same time, the ceasefire in the Middle East has improved sentiment, though conditions around Hormuz remain abnormal and still carry a risk premium. Commodity flows are also shaping the market. Fertiliser risks continue to affect grain competitiveness, with soybeans less exposed than wheat and corn. That continues to favour Brazil over the United States and helps explain why South American freight remains relatively well supported. Handysize improved this week, but the recovery was selective and still lags the larger segments. South America remains the strongest Atlantic basin, supported by soybean demand and tighter prompt supply. Owners have more leverage here than they do elsewhere in the Atlantic, especially on prompt grain stems. The US Gulf has started to turn, with better cargo enquiry and some clearing of the tonnage list. Even so, the basin remains oversupplied and continues to trail South America by a wide margin. Europe improved modestly after Easter, helped by tighter prompt supply and better short-haul demand. However, it still remains a secondary market rather than a leading one. The Black Sea stayed soft, with thin wheat demand and continued caution around regional exposure preventing any sustained recovery. Overall, Handysize is no longer falling, but it is still the least convincing segment in the broader recovery. Supramax and Ultramax had the strongest week in the Atlantic, with the US Gulf leading the move. The US Gulf was the standout basin, supported by tightening prompt supply and stronger trans-Atlantic and regional demand. The market has repriced quickly, and the Gulf can no longer be treated as a soft wait-and-see area. South America remained firm, with soybean demand and cleaner vessel supply continuing to support rates. The basin is still strong, though the sharpest momentum has shifted back toward the US Gulf. Asia also improved again, adding to the firmer overall tone. In contrast, the Mediterranean and Black Sea remained softer, with oversupply and limited cargo continuing to cap gains. Overall, Supramax has clearly entered a firmer phase, though the strength remains concentrated in the Atlantic and not yet uniform across all basins. Panamax improved again this week and remains one of the healthier segments. South America continues to provide the strongest support, with grain demand keeping the basin at a premium to the rest of the Atlantic. Brazil’s competitive position in soybeans remains a key driver. The North Atlantic improved more gradually, with firmer sentiment but still enough vessel availability to prevent a sharper move. The US Gulf remained secondary, improving with the wider market but still lacking a clear grain premium of its own. The Pacific stayed supportive, helping maintain the overall firmer tone. Panamax is therefore stronger than it was at the start of April, but the market is still split rather than tight across the board. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic was the strongest region this week. Supramax and Ultramax led the move, especially in the US Gulf, while South America continued to anchor Panamax and Handysize support. Pacific Basin The Pacific remained stable to firmer, with steady demand helping support sentiment, particularly in Panamax and the larger geared sizes. Indian Ocean Activity remained steady, with no major disruption or sharp shift in balance, but enough support to keep the broader tone constructive. Bunkers and energy Fuel prices are no longer moving in one direction. While overall bunker costs remain below the March highs, regional spreads continue to distort voyage economics and make forward pricing difficult. Security and routing Hormuz remains restricted in practice, and Gulf exposure still carries a premium. Owners remain cautious when pricing forward optionality into the region. Commodities and trade flows Fertiliser supply risk remains an important part of the grain outlook. Soybeans remain relatively less exposed, which continues to favour Brazilian export competitiveness and supports South American freight. Europe No major new European disruption emerged. Freight continues to be driven mainly by vessel supply and cargo timing rather than operational bottlenecks. Handysize should continue to improve gradually, but recovery is likely to remain selective and concentrated in South America rather than broad-based across the Atlantic. Supramax is now in a firmer phase, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, though Europe and the Mediterranean still look weaker. Panamax remains supported by South American grain and steady Pacific demand, with further gains possible, though likely to remain measured rather than explosive. Across all segments, freight is firmer, but still highly sensitive to bunker volatility, geopolitical risk and shifting commodity flows.

Agri- Commodities: 06-10/04/26 : US wheat futures fell on Monday, led by Kansas wheat, as improved US weather forecasts pressured prices, while soybeans and corn closed slightly higher. MATIF remained closed and may have some catching up to do today. Overall, the week promises to be eventful on both the geopolitical side, with Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ending today, and the fundamental side, with the USDA WASDE report due on Thursday. The White House said a proposed 45-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is only one of several ideas under discussion and that President Trump has not approved it, calling it a “significant step” but “not good enough”, with military operations still ongoing. Iran also rejected the proposal. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday evening to open the Strait of Hormuz, while US winter wheat conditions came in at just 35% G/E, well below expectations, and Russian 12.5% wheat for May delivery was reported at $239/t. Wheat prices were little changed on both sides of the Atlantic on Tuesday despite very poor initial US winter wheat ratings, as rains expected later this week are seen improving conditions. Soybeans, and especially corn, came under greater pressure, with corn closing at its lowest level in four weeks. Still, the most important developments came after the close, and their impact is visible this morning. Trump agreed to a two-week pause in attacks if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, easing a major war risk and triggering a sharp drop in oil prices. US wheat futures, which had been closely tracking oil, lost that support and moved lower, while EU soft wheat exports reached 18.0 mmt with line-ups already suggesting volumes above 21 mmt. Plunging oil prices sent wheat prices lower on Wednesday as well, with corn following while soybeans managed slight gains. The market focus remained on geopolitics, as uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire persisted, alongside expectations for a largely uneventful USDA WASDE report focused on old-crop adjustments. The ceasefire quickly came into question, with Iran accusing the U.S. of violating its terms on the same day it was announced, while Washington denied key claims. In physical markets, Jordan bought feed barley, and positioning data showed non-commercial participants reducing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. The April USDA WASDE report brought limited changes overall but included a notable revision that increased global wheat ending stocks, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Wheat prices reversed earlier gains and closed lower, while corn declined for a third consecutive session, returning to pre-Iran war levels. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s corn production estimate to a record 67 mmt, highlighting improving crop prospects, while U.S. drought conditions worsened, with 68% of winter wheat areas affected. Oil markets remained volatile, with ongoing uncertainty around ceasefire terms and continued tensions involving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Grains ended the week mixed, with wheat and corn lower while soybeans gained support from stronger meal prices. Markets heading into the weekend were not pricing in a negative outcome from U.S.-Iran talks, but this shifted after negotiations failed .U.S. Vice President JD Vance left talks without a deal, and Trump announced plans for a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, including stopping vessels paying tolls to Iran and clearing mines. USDA confirmed export sales of soybean meal to Italy and corn to unknown destinations, while CFTC data showed broad fund selling across grains, ending a ten-week streak of net buying.

Weekly Freight Recap: 10/04/2026 : The dry bulk market stabilised this week, though the recovery remains uneven. Panamax and Supramax showed improvement, while Handysize continued to lag behind. The main macro shift came from bunkers, which fell sharply following ceasefire headlines. This removed one of the key supports that had been holding freight in weaker regions. However, geopolitical risk has not disappeared. Disruption in the Middle East continues to affect routing and pricing visibility, particularly around the Arabian Gulf. At the same time, underlying commodity dynamics remain important. South America continues to benefit from stronger soybean competitiveness, helping support Atlantic demand despite softer fuel costs. Handysize remained soft, with continued pressure across the Atlantic and some spillover into Europe. The US Gulf is still the weakest region, with persistent oversupply and limited prompt cargo keeping rates under pressure. This imbalance continues to favour charterers. South America is relatively firmer, supported by ongoing soybean demand and tighter vessel availability compared to other Atlantic regions. However, the market is not tight, and execution remains uneven due to timing disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean remain soft, with available tonnage outweighing demand. Activity has improved slightly, but not enough to shift sentiment. The Black Sea continues to move without a clear trend, with selective demand and ongoing geopolitical caution influencing decisions. Overall, Handysize remains structurally oversupplied, with only pockets of relative strength. Supramax improved this week, but the recovery remains selective rather than broad-based. The US Gulf showed the clearest improvement, supported by better enquiry and reduced prompt pressure. While the market is still competitive, sentiment has strengthened compared to late March. The South Atlantic continues to hold firmer levels, supported by steady cargo flow and a more balanced supply position. In contrast, Europe and the Black Sea remain under pressure, with limited cargo availability and continued competition among owners. Overall, Supramax is no longer declining, but the market is not yet tight enough to support a sustained rally. Panamax improved modestly and remains the most balanced segment. South America continues to offer the strongest employment, supported by soybean exports and favourable positioning into China. This remains the key driver of Atlantic strength. The North Atlantic has stabilised, with some improvement in demand, though not enough to create tight conditions. The US Gulf remains secondary, with steady but unspectacular demand and no clear premium emerging. The Pacific remains supported by consistent cargo flow, helping maintain overall balance. Panamax is therefore improving, but still operating in a stable rather than bullish environment. Atlantic Basin Handysize remains under pressure, especially in the US Gulf and Europe. Supramax and Panamax are improving, with South America continuing to lead. Pacific Basin Markets are stable to slightly firmer, supported by steady cargo programs. Panamax shows the most consistent support. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady but not strong enough to tighten supply significantly. Bunkers and energy Fuel prices fell sharply, removing a key support for freight. Lower bunker costs are easing voyage calculations but also reducing upward pressure on rates. Security and routing Conditions around the Arabian Gulf remain difficult to price. Restricted access continues to limit normal market functioning and adds uncertainty to routing decisions. Commodities and trade flows Brazil continues to benefit from stronger soybean competitiveness, supporting South American export flows. This remains a key driver of relative strength in the Atlantic. Europe No major new disruptions emerged. Market direction continues to be driven primarily by supply and demand rather than operational issues. Handysize is expected to remain under pressure, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply persists. Supramax is stabilising, with improving conditions in the US Gulf and South America, but still lacks the strength for a broad recovery. Panamax remains the most balanced segment, supported by South American grain and steady Pacific demand, though not yet tight. Across all segments, the market has stabilised but remains sensitive. With bunker support fading and geopolitical risk still present, further gains will depend on whether demand continues to build.

Mads Frank Markussen joins the IFPRI-AMIS panel on what's driving food commodity markets 2026: Our Head of Freight Research & FFA, Mads Frank Markussen, joined the IFPRI-AMIS panel "Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What's Driving Food Commodity Markets?", co-organized by IFPRI and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and moderated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The panel brought together economists, crop specialists, and market analysts to unpack the forces shaping today's markets, with Mads contributing the freight and shipping perspective. Over the course of the discussion, the panel covered questions including:

International Wheat Industry Conference 2024, Brazil: Will Latin American countries continue to increase import of Russian wheat? Our colleague Indrek Aigro shared valuable insights at the Abitrigo Conference on shifting import and export trends in Latin America. Key Topics Covered: Good afternoon. I have never seen such a large audience at 3:30 in the afternoon! It’s a big effort to be here, and I take it as a compliment. I'll do my best not to disappoint you. I’m from Copenhagen Merchants, where I head the brokerage division. Our team works across many regions around the world, including an office in São Paulo focused on the Latin American markets. With over 20 years in this business, I, like every trader, identify with a specific crop. For me, it’s wheat. So, being here in Brazil, a major wheat-importing nation, feels like the right place to be. Brazil is crucial not only for its wheat imports but also as a diversified agricultural hub. I’m here to discuss the other side of the picture: the Eastern Hemisphere. Brazil’s export capacity is growing, with promising opportunities to expand production, especially with new GMO varieties and improved yields. But simultaneously, imports are increasing across the whole region. Given this is a media conference, I'll focus on imports into Brazil and Latin America, rather than exports, although my company handles both. I believe everyone here shares a common goal: to combat food inflation. High food prices hurt everyone—the country, the business, and the consumer. While temporary profits might arise from inflation, it generally causes more disruption than benefit. One way to combat food inflation is by diversifying our sourcing, giving us access to a variety of origins based on cost-effectiveness, availability, and quality. Different wheat origins bring unique characteristics, and today’s global volatility demands flexibility in sourcing. We see this trend globally—in Africa, Asia, and here in Latin America. Now, let me show you the state of wheat imports across Latin America. This region has a huge purchasing power, importing about 20 million tons of wheat annually. Argentina contributes around 3.5 to 5 million tons each year, with the U.S., Canada, and now the Eastern Hemisphere, especially Russia, increasing their shares in the market. Over the last 20 years, Latin America’s wheat consumption has grown by almost 10 million tons, with production largely keeping pace. But increased local production in Brazil doesn’t necessarily mean fewer imports, as wheat grown in South Brazil often heads to markets in Africa and Asia. This means more trade overall—both imports and exports continue to rise together. Among Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico are the top wheat importers, followed by Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. In total, the region imported around 21 million tons of wheat this past season, a figure that’s steadily growing. This part of the world is becoming more and more relevant on the global stage. To understand agricultural trends, we have to look beyond year-on-year comparisons and examine decade-by-decade shifts. Over the past ten years, U.S. wheat exports to Latin America have declined, with Russia filling the gap. This shift seems to be a lasting trend, as the U.S. is producing less wheat each year and relying more on imports when necessary. Consequently, Brazil and Latin America must look increasingly to Eastern Hemisphere sources, adapting to different quality standards and regulatory requirements. Some of this work is ongoing, but more remains to be done. When examining Brazilian and Mexican wheat imports, in 2018-2019 Brazil imported nearly 6 million tons, while last season it was around 3 million tons due to a better crop. Although Brazilian mills in the north are adapting to alternative sources, the country's import dynamics are changing. Russia, which had no market share five years ago, now has a foothold. Meanwhile, recent BRICS meetings in Moscow emphasized ambitions to create a marketplace for BRICS agricultural commodities, possibly including a BRICS currency. The Russia-Brazil trade relationship seems to have strong support and momentum at this time. For Mexico, much of its wheat supply comes from the U.S., supported by a robust rail trade over the border. However, with the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S., some trade agreements may be at risk. If these agreements are disrupted, Russia could step in as a wheat supplier. Another developing source is the Baltic Sea, which includes regions in Germany, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia (where I’m from). The Russian Baltic region, including Kaliningrad, has a flow of about 3 million tons annually, though most of it currently goes to Mexico rather than Brazil. With proper regulatory protocols in place, Brazilian mills could potentially buy from these origins when the price is competitive. The job ahead is to establish a platform and regulatory protocols to allow Brazilian mills to buy wheat from diverse sources whenever it makes economic sense. So I think that is that is that effective for both Russian and, and, and the European Union flows and, and I that's why we see that I think we are going to I think we are going to be seeing, a lot more of it in the future. The wheat production and especially the, the wheat, exportable surplus. You see, it's been growing and, and I think that is still potential to grow in the Baltics. We, we see that, that, that wheat is definitely looking for new alternatives as a destination market. And, I think that the, the both Mexico and especially Brazil and maybe Colombia, Venezuela are gonna be the destinations where whether it is going to be quite relevant for as an area instead of having to ship it to Asia. And yeah, I mean, for the ones who are interested, the typical these are the standard, quality parameters that we are trading for, for the Baltic Sea origin. So yeah, I believe it's relatively similar to it's very high on gluten. It's very good stability on on baking and it's high on energy. So, on the Alva graph, you figure it, it always goes very high. So usually the mills like it. The double and, Germany, Poland, we see the same that where Poland is increasing a lot now and exports. And there are already specific discussions going on about the phyto protocol in Poland. To be, to make it shoot Brazilian imports. So, so this is something where we also see a lot of potential for the, for the future. The there is a specific thing in Poland. Poland is not really able to ship. Panamax is only a few Poland can ship these and supermax is only. So that means that, say 30 40,000 ton of vessels and that is the size of Brazil takes. So this makes Poland actually a very good match for Brazil. They have less alternatives to go. And the Polish German quality, which is very similar to the to the Baltic, Baltic Sea, to the Baltic qualities. And that is a slide I already showed you. Now this is the same slide, but you see where, these are the destinations of the Baltic Sea countries where they are shipping, too. It used to be Iran on top. Then it was Saudi Arabia. But now what you. I'm sorry. Press the wrong button. Yeah. So now what you see here, it's basically West Africa. There is a lot of West Africa where they go because and the and and the South America, Latin America could really fit well into, into this I believe if they, if we show the same slide again in five years, we are going to see Brazil in this list. What about the freight? Are they competitive? Is Russia competitive or is a Baltic Sea competitive to United States to, Canada on the freight? So we made, small comparison here. And you see that the, the freight actually, here we have Mexico and here we have Brazil. So, you can see that, the freight from Russia is actually higher than from alternative countries. And in the Mexican case, of course, obviously USA is by far the cheapest. But freight, as we all know, sea freight is only one element in the equation. The other element is a price of the week itself. So what happens if we combine the freight with a V price and we look at the CFR figures. This happens. So you see suddenly that that to Mexico, Russia is pretty much on par with the U.S actually these numbers, my prices are from last week. When I made the presentation yesterday, Russia U.S were exactly on the on the same par. But if you look at Brazil then this is a US wheat price. Yesterday we have then we have Baltic Sea which I mentioned. Then we have Russia here. So and then we have Romania, Romania. On the paper looks cheap, but it is not able to come to Brazil today. It's a very soft wheat. It has to go into specific destinations. I just wanted to add it as a comparison, but it's definitely something to talk about. But you see that price wise it is competitive. Well, I don't have Argentina here and I think Argentina new crop is definitely going to take the market share. So Argentinian Dynamics is that you know, the during their harvest they grab the market not only in Brazil but almost globally. And then they ship and sell everywhere. So we're going to see a big effect on energy. But however, if we're looking at the in Brazil alternatives to RG then this is a picture actually. And then I want to come back and zoom in on the Russian flows. So, Russia, what you hear in the news is or what you hear in the industry. You hear that? Okay. Sometimes, that it can be an issue on the phyto, and then the government is taking more control. So I just want to explain and elaborate a little bit on what are the trends, what are happening in Russia and how it affects, destinations and Brazilian, consumers. All the middle of the wheat. So, in Russia, use what you see today happening is that the government is taking a stronger and stronger control of the wheat exports, and the government is really saying two things. They are they are saying that the wheat they are, they are they are looking at wheat as any other natural resource of the country, like oil or gas. And they are saying, okay, because because it's a natural resource for the country, then the country has a say in how and where it should be traded, and that is certain logics in it. So they are like saying, okay, you can export as a private company, but we want to you first of all not to sell the wheat to cheap. We want you to sell it at a certain level. But for what it is worth, because they want to avoid a situation where Russians are competing with Russians and then, the wheat goes, generates a very big discount. And that is something which is, which everybody is trying to get used to today. The other thing, what, what they are saying is that they, they see it as a negative thing, that the global trading houses are buying the wheat on FOB Russia and then delivering it to various destinations. They see it as somebody who who is not Russian is, coming and eating away there some of the price. What they what they show they get themselves. It is a little bit simplistic view because we know how the commodity markets work, how it's it's a basically a big pot of soup. But but anyway, that is a view. And that means that Russian companies are today discouraged to sell FOB to international trading companies. And they are very much encouraged to go directly to destinations and go directly to mills and, and as often as usual in Russia, a lot of these things are not written. They are just kind of, known and implied. So, what it means is that we today we see that it's very hard to buy an FOB cargo in Russia for an international trader. The companies, they don't want to participate in it. They, they instead they are giving us as brokers a task saying, please go and discover us. Destination consumer buyers in Asia, in Africa, in South America and South America is a new and hot place. Looking at it from the Russian point of view, where they all see that the way they want to come. That also means from looking at it, from Brazil, it means that we believe that in the next near future, from now one, actually, we are going to see less international companies offering Russian wheat to Brazil, and we are going to see more of the Russian companies that are two Russian companies here in Rome today we have Austin and we have foods. So Austin and Rich fields are, Russian originators, Russian companies, and they are the ones who have already a clear ambition to come and sell in those markets. However, mark my words, same event next year that is going to be more than two. That's going to be eight. So, I think this is how the trend is going. The, and it is an irrevocable trend because what we always see is if originators learn that in Asian markets, if they learn the quality, their paperwork, their credit lines, their performance, if that all gets developed, their business does not go back to FOB, even if the restrictions disappear, the business stays there because they they have learned it. And and again, this is what I believe that. So I think that that what is going to happen in the next 12 months and that wheat imports, okay, we're going to have the ag show for the next couple of months. So that's fine. But the the rest of the market will wait. But once it prices back in, then we we're going to see a new names, new sellers coming, coming to those markets here and offering the wheat that takes introduction, getting to know each other and learning how to dance this, dance together. So. So I think that the, number one, I think that that is a very, strong potential in, in this business. I think that, the as I said, U.S. exports are slowly declining on the wheat. If you look at the long term trends, we see that the imports here are growing, and we see that the ability of the mills there to be more universal use, more of various origins, is increasing everywhere. And on today's volatility, it's necessary. So, we think that that gives a very big potential. And then we have the whole BRICs, countries, China, Brazil, India, and I think, that is, how this whole picture is going to evolve.

Augusto Abati talks about Brazilian crops wheat and corn markets 2024: Will wheat planting be tough for Brazilian farmers? Listen to how we discuss about the current situation in Brazilian markets, the challenges faced by local farmers, conflicting corn crop estimates, and what all this means for prices. - Hi, I'm Hendrik from CM Hamburg and I'm sitting here together with my colleague Augusto from CM São Paulo. We're here today to discuss the Brazilian crops and especially wheat and corn markets.Good morning, Augusto. How are you today? - Good morning. I am doing very well, and yourself? - Absolutely fine, thank you. Looking at the Brazilian crops, we are in the middle of the corn harvest, how's it looking currently? - Yeah, well, let's say that the first corn harvest is 80% done at this stage and the Safrinha of corn, the second harvest in Brazil is only about 2% done in the center south of Brazil So far, the conditions look good. We're not going to have a record crop like last year but everything is moving forward. We're not expecting any major changes from now on, the weather is very good in the state of Mato Grosso. We do have some problems in the state of Rio Grande do Sul but overall I believe that the numbers should stay as per the last ranges of the trade. - It does look a little different on the wheat market. So, with the flooding in the South it has a major impact on the seedings. How is it looking on the wheat? - Well, for the wheat, we're going to have a challenging year. At the State of Paraná, the conditions are fairly good. The plantings have started but the main issue in Brazil right now is the State of Rio Grande do Sul. They had the biggest weather disaster in history. Meaning that several of the areas are still flooded. We cannot even access some of those areas. We have problems with logistics, and, of course, this is affecting the plantings. Which are fairly delayed. Initially, we were working with a range over 9.5 million tonnes production and we are already talking about low 8 million tonnes. So we're going to have some massive differences from what was initially predicted in Brazil. - Speaking about the delayed plantings and the wet conditions, how do you think that will affect the quality this year if that already can be said? - I would say it's still a bit too early to say anything about the quality. - Again, we have barely started the plantings but if the conditions persist, we might have a year like the previous season. While we were expecting to export 11.5 with ANEC specs and ended up having only a feed wheat program. At this stage, I would say that the sellers in Brazil, they're also concerned about this. So they are selling 11.5 for ex harvest but also asking for an option to decrease it to feed wheat in case the conditions persist. - What does it mean for the prices? Where's the market currently? What are we talking about? - We're talking of a very high market at this stage and very far apart. I would say that the December wheat at this stage in Brazil is 280 versus 255. The sellers are in line with what we see in Argentina but as you very well know, at parity with Germany and much more expensive than what we see in Russia right now. Especially against Russia 12.5 even. - So, looking at a probably decreased production number how does it affect the import side? Is Russian wheat playing a major role in this? - Indeed they are. On the import side last year we had imports around 5.5. In the beginning of the year, we were expecting 100 million tons less, around 5.4 but right now we are already working with numbers above 6 million tons, especially given the conditions in Rio Grande de Sul. So if that does indeed materialise, it will be in favour of Russia. Argentinian wheat, at this stage 11.5 We're talking about 285$ versus 12.5 on the Black Sea around 250. So, even with the freight spread to Brazil, we would see a massive flow of Russian flowing into the country. The trade is already rumouring of at least 1 million tons traded and we believe this number will only increase from now on. - Thanks for the insights, Augusto. Coming back to the corn markets, we've briefly talked about it but the production numbers are quite diverse yet. What do you think is the reason for that? - They are indeed all over the place. On one side we have CONAB with very low estimates and on the other side we have the actual trade. Talking with other clients and partners in Brazil, we do put the production around 1.22 million tonnes. Not the low numbers of CONAB of 1.13 - 1.14 million tons. The USDA is still even higher 1.25. But considering the estimates of the trade at this stage, we would see at least 120 million tonnes being produced in Brazil. Not a record crop as last year but still fairly significant that will generate a very good export season for the country. - How does that affect the market? I mean, we are in the middle of the harvest. - Yes, the first crop now is at 80% harvested. Second crop, just about started. The market has been quiet let's say. One of the main components of last season for Brazil was China. China has been missing in action, we have not seen or heard any trades. If something was traded, it was very little in comparison to the last year. So, but even without China, we see Brazilian corn starting to calculate pretty much everywhere in the world. Via the Med, via the EU, via Southeast Asia. So we're slowly getting there that Brazilian corn is pricing in to destinations but not yet trading that much. As you might as well know, Brazil starts the heavy export as of July, August, so we're still a bit early but not many trades were done. So, we're lagging behind a normal year. - So market looks actually rather bearish and heavy, what do you think farmers have committed so far? - Very little. The farmer selling has been very much focused on the soybeans. Even though at this stage they have a very favourable USD BRL parity, to start selling, they still have a lot of soybeans to sell. So, the focus has not been the corn. We're expecting this to change any time. Could it be next week, in three weeks from now, the Brazilian corn market needs to move and we are yet to see a harvest pressure that will move those markets. - So, soon we could see a sharp drop in the harvest markets on corn, might that bring China back to the table? - It could. We are talking about the next harvest in July. At this stage we are bearish when it comes to basis. It will all depend in the end of China at this point. China was the biggest importer of Brazilian corn last season. So, without China, then of course we would have a completely different situation. - Many thanks for your insights, Augusto! - Always a pleasure!

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market 2024 - Part II: How could Russia's consolidation impact prices? In this interview, we discuss the growing influence of the Russian government in grain trading. We also discuss the global grain market and various factors such as demand, weather patterns, and the emergence of AI in trading strategies. We explore these questions further in an interview (part 2 of 2) with Dan Basse.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market 2024 - Part I: Farmers across the world are facing an uphill battle – What is the difference between American and European farmers communities? Dive into the heart of the matter – as European farmers take to the streets in protest, American farmers face a different kind of struggle, with growing concerns about their mental health based on an/with an up tap/increase in farmers suicides across the US. Wondering what lies ahead? Is the bear market finally behind us/over? Gain insights from our exclusive interview with Dan Basse.

Nikolay Gorbochov talks about the potential impact of EU restrictions 2023 - Part II: What is the potential impact the EU restrictions imposed on Ukrainian grain imports? We discuss whether these measures are temporary and highlight any reasons for EU farmers to express concerns. How critical it is to maintain a smooth flow of Ukrainian grain and what could be the potential impacts if grain exports were to halt. Additionally, alternative options to ensure the continuous movement of Ukrainian grain are discussed.

Nikolay Gorbochov talks about the extension of the grain corridor 2023 - Part I: Will the grain corridor be extended? And what are the implications if it isn't? We address this topic in an interview (Video 1 of 2) with Nikolay Gorbachov, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA)

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part III: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this third part (3 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part II: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this second part (2 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part I: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this first part (1 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Mads Frank Markussen explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions: Recently, our colleague Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research & FFA, joined Felipe, Neil, and Michael on a special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook to dive into all things freight. Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed potential US-Europe tariff conflicts and why Russian sanctions have had a limited effect on dry bulk markets. The conversation covered key differences between tanker and dry bulk markets and the growing influence of emissions regulations on voyage costs across the industry. A must-listen for anyone in freight and commodities—check it out! Listen to the full podcast here:

Marc Myllerup Discuss Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat Markets: Our colleague joined a conversation with and Andreas Steno Larsen at to discuss soybeans, corn, and wheat markets. His insights highlighted challenges such as reduced wheat yields in France and Russia, and India's increased wheat imports. Marc emphasized the crucial role of weather and geopolitical factors in commodity markets, offering practical insights. He also shared how using CM Navigator, an innovative research tool, enhances market prediction capabilities, providing valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. Watch Full episode: Spotify (Start 14.20 min):

Use the Power of Historical Data: In the complex world of commodity trading, the saying "history repeats itself" serves not merely as a philosophical thinking but as a foundational principle that supports investment and trading strategies. This is particularly relevant in the context of market cycles, which are known for their tendency to exhibit patterns and behaviours that recur over time. By closely examining past market trends and cycles, traders and investors can accumulate insights into potential future movements, allowing them to make more informed decisions. This article dives into the value of historical data analysis for forecasting market trends. Historical data proves to be an indispensable tool for those who want to stay ahead of the dynamic movements of commodity- and freight markets. The strategic use of historical data in commodity trading is crucial for portfolio diversification, risk management, and the timing of market entries and exits. It enables traders and investors to utilize past market responses to various stimuli—such as economic cycles, policy changes, and supply disruptions— allowing them to effectively understand the correlation to market variables such as commodity futures, cash prices, and freight markets and thus it provides a solid foundation to analyse these market dynamics. The impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices is a key example of historical data's relevance. As an example, oil markets are significantly affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where production disruptions have historically led to sharp increases in global oil prices. By analysing episodes like the oil shocks of the 1970s or more recent conflicts in oil-producing regions, analysts can build models to better anticipate the effects of similar future incidents on commodity markets (Carter, Rausser & Smith, 2011). Furthermore, the analysis of historical freight rates serves as a critical component of the dry bulk commodity trading equation, providing insights into broader economic and logistical trends. These insights reflect the multifaceted influence of numerous factors on the markets and underscore the importance of historical data in uncovering supply-demand correlations, price elasticity, political impacts, and market sentiment over time (Barkoulas, Hu & Santos, 2008). Predictive modelling in commodity trading exceeds mere speculation, anchoring itself in the systematic interpretation of correlations of historical data. The integration of historical data allows statistical models, machine learning algorithms, and other analytical tools to uncover trends that might otherwise not be immediately apparent. Historical variables might include lagged prices, historical volatility indices, and even sentiment analysis derived from news archives. The latter approach enables the formulation of forecasts hypothesises that predict market behaviour with a higher degree of accuracy than traditional methods, as proved by Pai, Hong, and Lin (2018) in the realm of stock price forecasting. Traditional statistical modelling techniques, such as Linear Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, have long been central in forecasting commodity prices. Linear Regression offers a straightforward approach by establishing linear relationships between variables, while ARIMA models capture the temporal dependencies and seasonality inherent in time series data. These methods have demonstrated efficacy in predicting price movements across a wide array of commodities, providing valuable insights for traders, investors, and policymakers alike. However, the advent of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures has ushered in a new era of predictive modelling, offering unparalleled capabilities in capturing intricate patterns and nonlinear relationships within data. Architectures such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs), have emerged as powerful tools for forecasting grain yield and prices. (Liakos et al., 2018) However, recognizing that no model can guarantee perfect predictions, traders often employ a combination of methods to enhance forecast reliability. Fundamental analysis, which examines supply and demand factors, economic indicators, and other tangible data, complements these econometric models. By integrating various methodologies, traders can form a more holistic view of the market, preparing for a range of potential outcomes and mitigating the inherent risks of relying on a single forecasting approach. The strategic analysis of historical cash prices and freight rates is indispensable in the quest to forecast future movements in commodity markets. This comprehensive approach not only facilitates a deeper understanding of market dynamics but also equips traders and investors with the insights needed to navigate market volatility successfully and seize emerging opportunities. As commodity markets continue to evolve, the thoughtful use of historical data will remain a cornerstone of adjusting trading strategies, highlighting its value in an ever-dynamic economic and geopolitical landscape. The meticulous analysis of historical data is not just a technical exercise but a strategic imperative that leverages patterns of the past, providing a foundation upon which future decisions of commodity trading strategies are made. Barkoulas, J., Hu, A. & Santos, M.R., 2008. The Link between Commodity Prices and Commodity-Linked-Equity Values during a Geopolitical Event. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 12, p.1. Pai, P.-F., Hong, L.-C. & Lin, K.-P., 2018. Using Internet Search Trends and Historical Trading Data for Predicting Stock Markets by the Least Squares Support Vector Regression Model. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2018, p.6305246. Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., Hammoudeh, S. & Wohar, M., 2019. What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats? Energy economics, Vol.84, pp.1-14 Carter, C., Rausser, G. & Smith, A., 2011. Commodity Booms and Busts. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 3, pp.87-118. Liakos, K.G.; Busato, P.; Moshou, D.; Pearson, S.; Bochtis, 2018 D. Machine Learning in Agriculture A Review. Sensors 2018, 18, 2674.

Increased transparency in dry bulk freight markets : Traditionally, the shipping markets are characterised by a high degree of opacity and exclusivity, predominantly governed by a limited number of shipowners situated in e.g. Greece, Monaco, or Denmark, distant from the demand centres for freight services. Considering the inelastic nature of vessel supply from an economic perspective, it is advantageous for vessel owners to prefer pricing strategies based on an individual transaction basis. This approach enables shipowners to fully gauge the extent of market demand. Consequently, this method of price discovery has historically been in the favour of the freight sellers. Advancements in technology have facilitated a paradigm shift in the methodology of freight pricing. Increased transparency within the dry bulk freight markets is transforming the dynamics of the physical commodity markets. Innovations such as new freight calculators and comprehensive freight- and CFR matrices, designed specifically for the use of freight buyers, are changing the operational strategies of commodity traders. These tools have been instrumental in reducing the time required for price discovery and thus influencing the pace of the decision-making processes. This blog post explores the implications of this augmented transparency, concentrating on its impact on decision-making, risk management, market efficiency, liquidity, and the technological innovations driving these changes. In the world of commodity trading such as grains, fertilizers, cement, steel etc, the cost of freight constitutes a significant component of the CFR price and is often the deciding element of the total cost which determines the most competitive origin for a given destination. Examples of this include the transportation of corn from Brazil to China, where freight costs are approximately 20% of FOB cost (200 USD/PMT FOB and 40 USD/PMT) freight, or cement clinker from Turkey to West Africa where freight is around 50% of FOB cost (50 USD/PMT FOB and 25 USD/PMT). Historically, acquiring accurate freight rates has been a complex and cumbersome process, characterized by multiple stages, discretionary pricing, and considerable delays. This has typically represented a notable information scarcity for most commodity traders without extensive in-house freight departments. However, the introduction of online platforms providing access via websites or API to real-time data on dry bulk freight rates has started to even out the competitive landscape. These platforms provide commodity traders with comprehensive insights into the constantly moving freight markets, covering all major deep-sea routes on a global scale. A dry bulk freight matrix or calculator empowers traders with the capability to instantly evaluate shipping costs, thereby facilitating the comparison of Cost and Freight (CFR) prices to determine competitiveness at the destination. Consequently, this leads to noticeably faster and more accurate cost calculations. The capacity to programmatically examine hundreds of freight combinations changes the role of the trader, reducing the amount of time devoted to price discovery and increasing the focus on market analysis and the making of strategic decisions. The freight markets are characterized by volatility, a consequence of the inelastic nature of supply. Instances, where an oversupply of ships is observed for one week, can rapidly shift to a shortage, shortly after. An illustrative example of this volatility can be observed in the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Mediterranean trade routes for handysize grain trades. Taking November 2023 as an example, there was a 100% increase in vessel hire rates from the beginning to the end of the month. In general, freight market volatility has increased in recent years thereby creating substantial trading opportunities. For instance, comparing the standard deviation of freight rates for Handysize vessels in 2019 and 2023, considering these years to approximate 'normal' conditions outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, reveals this increase in volatility; the Handysize Baltic Index recorded a standard deviation of 1873 in 2019 compared to 2261 in 2023, indicating a 20% increase in volatility. During the COVID years, the yearly standard deviation surged to 7355, marking a 392% increase in volatility. There is a tendency that larger vessel types show greater volatility, implying that larger standard deviations are to be expected for these vessel sizes. The incorporation of advanced analytics into an organization's proprietary data models enables commodity traders to refine their strategic approaches and enhance the accuracy of predictions, particularly for short-term forecasts applied in trading within the commodity futures market, where efficiency is critical. McKinsey & Company's report, "The Future of Commodity Trading," posits that the application of granular data in the realm of commodities trading has the potential to amplify revenues and profitability by leveraging short-term market inefficiencies. These technological innovations enable traders to make informed decisions quickly, enhancing their ability to manage risks associated with price volatility and shipping costs. Such technological advancements and increased price transparency can lead to greater liquidity. This is attributed to the lowering of barriers to market entry and the fostering of a more competitive trading landscape, as improvements in price discovery mechanisms and overall market efficiency are achieved. As the commodity trading landscape continues to evolve, the significance of technology in enhancing transparency and operational efficiency is becoming more pronounced. The availability of real-time freight information through advanced online platforms exemplifies the transformative impact of technological innovations on the industry. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the integration of machine learning and data analytics will intensify capitalizing on the growing volume of data accessible in shipping and commodity markets in the future. The trend towards increased transparency within dry bulk freight markets, driven by technological innovations, is transforming the physical commodity trading industries. Instant access to critical freight rates has not only enhanced market efficiency but also improved risk management and facilitated more informed decision-making among commodity traders. As technology continues to play a central role in the evolution of the industry, the potential for innovation remains extensive, promising a future where market participants can operate with exceptional insight and efficiency. McKinsey & Company. (n.d.). The future of commodity trading McKinsey & Company. (n.d.). Data mining for miners: Using analytics for short-term price movement forecasting

Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecasting: In the global agricultural commodity markets, the ongoing ability to follow and forecast crop progress with accuracy is not just an advantage; it's a necessity to be able to compete. The interplay of multiple factors makes the ‘supply and demand dynamics’ a complex exercise . This article touches upon how to leverage diverse and continuously updated data sourcesin supply and demand forecasting, with a focus on agricultural commodities, namely Wheat, Corn, Barley, and Soybeans. The first step in mastering agricultural commodity forecasting is acknowledging the market's complexity. This complexity arises from a blend of environmental factors, economic policies, geopolitical events, and technological advancements that collectively influence supply and demand dynamics. Weather patterns directly impact agricultural productivity, while economic and geopolitical shifts can alter market access and affect global supply chains. Technological innovations continuously reshape production capabilities and efficiencies, introducing new variables into forecasting models. Moreover, market sentiment, driven by traders' perceptions, adds a layer of unpredictability. Understanding this complex web of factors is crucial for developing accurate forecasting assumptions. Volatility is not an exception but the norm, driven by an array of factors from unexpected weather events across the globe to sudden geopolitical conflicts. Navigating the volatility, applying a diverse selection of data sources is key for a comprehensive understanding of supply and demand dynamics. The geopolitical landscape significantly impacts agricultural commodity prices, as evidenced by the recent Ukrainian / Russian war. This event spotlighted the fragility of global wheat supplies, given Ukraine's and Russia's role as major wheat exporters. The subsequent market disruption underscored the need for incorporating geopolitical analysis into market forecasting strategies. A responsive approach, leveraging real-time data on geopolitical events, enables market participants to anticipate and mitigate risks associated with such disruptions. To demonstrate how unforeseen events can trigger volatility, the fluctuating wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 2022 are highlighting the market's susceptibility to geopolitical shocks. The chart below illustrates two notable surges in price during the first half of 2022, each a reaction to significant global events. The initial surge of 50% corresponds to the outbreak of the Russian / Ukrainian war, with prices climbing sharply as one of the globe's largest grain-producing regions plunged into armed conflict. This sudden escalation reflected the market's anxiety over potential supply disruptions, triggering a spike as traders and other market participants rushed to close their short wheat positions amidst the uncertainty. The standard monthly deviation of CBOT wheat prices jumped more than 900% in March 2022. A few months later India implemented a wheat export ban which led to another spike in prices. This move by a major global wheat supplier was a response to domestic concerns but had international repercussions, restricting global supply further and driving prices up as buyers competed for the remaining accessible wheat. CBOT Wheat futures (daily continuous chart):