Industry insights

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook: The week opened with mixed grain markets. Corn followed soybeans higher, while CBOT wheat declined and MATIF wheat closed modestly firmer. US crop data showed soybean conditions improving by 1 pp to 66% good to excellent, while corn also gained 1 pp to 67%. Spring wheat conditions fell more sharply than expected, dropping 5 pp to 53%, and the winter wheat harvest reached 74% completion. USDA also reported private soybean sales to China and unknown destinations, together with corn sales to Colombia. Weekly export inspections were weak for wheat and especially soybeans. US spring wheat led Tuesday’s gains as dry weather and deteriorating crop conditions supported prices. Other US wheat contracts also advanced, while corn recovered from early losses despite better-than-expected condition ratings. MATIF wheat remained below the highs reached during its recent rally. Brazil’s second corn harvest reached 49.8% completion, while wheat planting advanced to 97.4%. SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat forecast from 88.9 mmt to 88.3 mmt. Initial results from the North Dakota crop tour placed southern spring wheat yields at 46.0 bushels per acre, below last year but slightly above the five-year average. Grain markets moved higher again, with wheat supported by continued attacks around the Black Sea and new restrictions at Novorossiysk. Russia introduced a temporary night curfew on vessel traffic at the port, limiting movements between midnight and 5 a.m. MATIF wheat joined the rally, while corn and soybeans also closed higher alongside firmer crude oil. EU soft wheat reached 0.47 mmt as of July 19, up 252k tonnes from the previous report but below 0.86 mmt a year earlier. Non-commercial participants increased their net long in MATIF milling wheat to 111.9k contracts, the highest level in more than two years, while their rapeseed net long rose to 72.4k contracts. Wheat fell sharply across US and European markets, giving back part of the earlier gains, while corn finished unchanged and soybeans moved higher. Black Sea shipping risks remained in focus, although Ukraine’s agriculture minister denied reports that mechanisms were being discussed to secure exports from the Big Odesa ports. Allseeds halted operations in the Odesa region because of the attacks. France’s soft wheat harvest reached 99% completion, while maize conditions declined to 38% good to excellent. Funds sold 11.5k wheat contracts on Friday but remained net buyers of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over the full week. Expana reduced its EU soybean and sunflower seed production forecasts, while IKAR projected Russia’s 2026 grain crop at 139 mmt, including 90 mmt of wheat.

Freight (Lite) : The dry bulk market weakened this week, although performance varied by vessel size and region. Handysize held broadly steady as stronger Pacific conditions offset a softer Atlantic, while Supramax declined in the US Gulf and Continent. Panamax recorded the sharpest correction, led by weaker Pacific demand and increasing vessel availability.  Prompt grain demand remains limited in several loading regions, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. However, sharply higher bunker costs are restricting the decline in voyage freight and creating a growing difference between weaker timecharter earnings and comparatively resilient USD/tonne rates.  The Handysize market was broadly stable at headline level, with the Timecharter Average edging up to approximately USD 16,300/day. The underlying market remained divided, as Pacific earnings improved while Atlantic rates continued to soften.  The US Gulf showed the clearest weakness, with a longer vessel list and limited prompt grain demand encouraging owners to reduce expectations. East Coast South America also remained soft, although delays affecting some vessels kept effective prompt supply more balanced than the published list suggested.  The Continent and Baltic remained quiet ahead of the European new-crop programme. In the Black Sea, activity increasingly shifted towards Romanian and Bulgarian ports as operational risks restricted Russian and Ukrainian loading.  Supramax and Ultramax conditions softened, with the Supramax Timecharter Average falling to approximately USD 21,500/day.  The US Gulf and Continent were the weakest Atlantic regions as vessel availability increased faster than fresh enquiry. Owners discounted to secure cover, particularly for prompt transatlantic employment.  East Coast South America performed better, supported by improving fronthaul demand, although transatlantic cargoes remained under pressure from available tonnage. Safe-port Mediterranean and Black Sea business also held comparatively firm because fewer owners were prepared to accept higher-risk loading areas.  Panamax was the weakest-performing segment, with the Timecharter Average falling to approximately USD 18,600/day. The Pacific led the decline as weak demand and a growing vessel list placed substantial pressure on rates.  Atlantic conditions also softened. Brazilian grain shipments remained active, but cargo volumes were insufficient to absorb available tonnage. The US Gulf and Continent faced a similar imbalance as prompt vessel supply increased while grain and coal enquiry remained limited.  Panamax earnings have moved below the main Supramax benchmarks, creating opportunities for buyers able to combine cargoes or use larger vessels. Voyage freight has been slower to adjust because higher bunker costs are offsetting part of the physical market decline.  Handysize weakened as additional tonnage accumulated in the US Gulf and East Coast South America.  Supramax remained under pressure in the US Gulf and Continent, while South American fronthaul demand provided some support.  Panamax softened across the main grain-loading regions as available vessels exceeded prompt cargo demand.  Handysize outperformed the Atlantic and supported the overall segment average.  Panamax experienced the strongest correction as vessel supply remained above current demand.  US Gulf buyers retain negotiating leverage due to the longer prompt vessel list.  East Coast South America remains soft, although vessel delays could reduce genuine early-August availability.  Continent and Baltic demand remains limited ahead of the European new-crop programme.  Black Sea requirements should focus on safer Romanian and Bulgarian loading ports.  Rising fuel costs are limiting the decline in voyage freight even as physical timecharter markets weaken.  Reduced Russian and Ukrainian grain activity is shifting cargo demand towards safer origins and supporting premiums for owners willing to trade in the region.  Prompt US grain availability remains limited, while expectations of stronger fourth-quarter exports indicate a softer nearby market but firmer forward demand.  Forward freight values have not fallen as quickly as the physical market, particularly in Panamax, making near-dated physical cover more attractive than paper hedging.  Handysize buyers should remain patient in the US Gulf and flexible East Coast South America positions.  Supramax buyers should continue testing transatlantic markets while covering South American fronthaul requirements earlier.  Panamax buyers should take advantage of weaker physical capacity but avoid rushing flexible prompt cargoes.  Voyage buyers should separate bunker adjustments from underlying freight wherever possible.  Russian and Ukrainian grain execution remains unreliable, making alternative origins and safer Black Sea ports the more practical options. 

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Wheat prices gave back Friday’s gains as the market assessed how long restrictions in the Sea of Azov could continue. The disruption remained a source of risk, although Russia had other ports available to redirect cargoes. Corn and soybeans closed higher alongside a surge in oil prices after the US announced plans to reinstate its blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and seek a 20% charge on other cargoes using the waterway. US crop conditions improved, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans 65%, both 1 pp higher over the week. Spring wheat ratings also increased to 58%, while the winter wheat harvest reached 67% completion. Wheat recovered from early losses as continued attacks on vessels and infrastructure around Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor supported prices. Russia said it would reroute grain exports through other Black Sea and Baltic ports to meet its commitments, although this would increase transport costs. US wheat futures outperformed MATIF as the dollar weakened following lower-than-expected inflation data. CONAB raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 141.73 mmt but reduced its wheat estimate to 6.03 mmt. EU Commission data placed soft wheat exports at 0.21 mmt as of July 12, although vessel lineups indicated volumes closer to 0.9 mmt. Wheat futures rose strongly as shipowners increasingly avoided Ukrainian Black Sea ports and some existing bookings were reviewed or cancelled. Traders also paused new purchases while reassessing insurance, freight and execution risks. Attention remained focused on Russian export flows from Novorossiysk, particularly during the period when the country’s wheat programme normally accelerates. France’s farm ministry estimated the soft wheat crop at 32 mmt, only 4% below last year despite the earlier heat wave. Non-commercial participants also moved from a net short of 9.7k MATIF wheat contracts to a net long of 23.6k contracts. Wheat reversed lower after reaching multi-month highs as traders reduced part of the Black Sea risk premium. Germany’s DRV lowered its 2026 wheat production estimate to 21.89 mmt from 22.63 mmt in June because of heat and limited rainfall. FranceAgriMer projected French soft wheat exports at 14.4 mmt and ending stocks at 3.65 mmt, but did not publish a corn SnD . US weekly export sales reached 235k tonnes of wheat, 626k tonnes of corn and 1.96 mmt of soybeans, with wheat and corn sales below market expectations. Drought affected 19% of US corn, 18% of soybeans and 24% of spring wheat acreage. Grain markets ended the week higher, led by wheat, as attacks and shipping restrictions in the Black Sea continued. Renewed US-Iran tensions also pushed Brent crude above $90. The French soft wheat harvest advanced by 33 pp to 92% complete, while French corn condition ratings fell another 6 pp to 41%. Weather forecasts indicated continued stress for French corn, cooler conditions across much of Europe and unwanted rain in northern Poland and the Baltics. Managed money increased its net long in Chicago corn by 30.7k contracts to 43.4k and reduced its net short in Chicago wheat by 25.5k contracts to 36.8k.

Freight (Lite): Dry bulk conditions became increasingly divided by vessel size and region this week. Handysize weakened across most Atlantic loading areas, Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest geared segment despite early signs of easing in the US Gulf, and Panamax stayed broadly steady with East Coast South America continuing to outperform the wider Atlantic. Higher bunker prices and maritime-security risks increased voyage costs, but local cargo volumes and vessel availability remained the main drivers of freight direction. The Handysize market softened, with the Timecharter Average easing to around USD 16,300/day. East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent all faced limited cargo demand and increasing vessel availability, giving charterers greater negotiating leverage. North Europe also remained under pressure as available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea enquiry. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were firmer because prompt vessels remained scarce. However, continued attacks on vessels and grain infrastructure have increased execution, insurance and cancellation risks. Pacific conditions held up better than the Atlantic but also eased slightly. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest grain-relevant segment, with the Ultramax Timecharter Average reaching around USD 21,900/day. East Coast South America stayed firm as a tight end-July vessel list supported grain fronthauls. The US Gulf also remained at elevated levels, although a growing tonnage list and slower enquiry produced the first signs that the market may be approaching a short-term peak. Black Sea levels remained supported by limited prompt supply, while the Continent stayed firm without showing a meaningful tightening in vessel availability. The Pacific improved, particularly around North and South China, giving the segment support across both major basins. Panamax remained broadly steady, with the Timecharter Average holding near USD 20,300/day. East Coast South America continued to command the strongest Atlantic grain premium, supported by Brazilian soybean and corn exports. The Pacific also firmed on North Pacific and Australian round voyages. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, momentum weakened. Continent and North Atlantic route assessments declined, while US Gulf grain demand provided some support without matching the strength of East Coast South America. Black Sea Panamax conditions remained difficult to assess because limited fresh pricing and vessel-supply information were available. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Black Sea Prompt geared tonnage remained limited, but attacks on vessels and export infrastructure substantially increased the risk of delay, cancellation and force majeure. Handysize-Specific Notes Fuel and Security Higher bunker prices, war-risk premiums and restricted Gulf transit conditions have raised voyage costs and reduced the effective availability of vessels on longer routes. Grain Flows Brazilian soybean and corn exports continue to support East Coast South America, while current US Gulf grain activity remains comparatively light. Black Sea Disruption Damage to vessels and export terminals has reduced the reliability of Black Sea grain movements despite continued underlying wheat demand. Forward Market Forward pricing suggests firm Supramax sentiment, broadly stable Panamax earnings and limited additional near-term downside in Handysize before a weaker seasonal period. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the US Gulf and the Continent, while securing exact prompt Black Sea requirements early. Supramax buyers should prioritise prompt East Coast South America and executable Black Sea cargoes, while covering only essential US Gulf requirements as the vessel list begins to grow. Panamax buyers should secure East Coast South America grain exposure where timing is fixed, but remain selective in the wider Atlantic and Pacific as regional conditions continue to diverge. Higher fuel and security costs should limit the depth of any freight correction, although weak cargo demand can still push individual markets lower.  

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as Chinese buying and weather concerns triggered a wave of buying. Soybeans and corn led the rally, while wheat also gained as managed money entered the week net short in both corn and Chicago wheat. China's COFCO bought at least 300k tons of US soybeans for September-November shipment, with some estimates reaching 600k tons. Hot and dry Midwest forecasts also supported corn during a critical stage of development. Saudi Arabia purchased 661k tons of wheat for September-October arrival, with the average price around $7.4/t below its previous tender. Prices extended their gains on follow-through buying, with China and weather still driving sentiment. Higher oil prices also provided support as tensions in the Middle East returned to the market. EU soft wheat exports ended the season at 23.42 mmt, compared with 21.62 mmt last year, while lineups suggested exports were more than 4 mmt higher. Oil jumped after reports of attacks on tankers near Hormuz and renewed US strikes on Iran. Grains corrected after the strong start to the week despite another surge in energy prices and confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases. USDA reported 472k tons of soybean sales to China, but the market reaction was muted after several days of speculation. Argentina's wheat production estimate was raised by 0.5 mmt to 20.5 mmt following larger planted area, heavy June rainfall and lower urea prices. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.7%. Markets were mixed ahead of the USDA WASDE report. US wheat moved higher on expectations of supportive figures, while corn and soybeans eased as Midwest weather forecasts turned cooler. Attention increasingly shifted to , with expectations for lower US and global corn and wheat ending stocks. Corn export sales disappointed at 967k tons, while USDA confirmed another 136k tons of new-crop soybeans sold to China. Argentina's wheat planting reached 87.9%, around 12 pp ahead of average. MATIF wheat surged on concerns over Russian grain exports, with the September contract closing 5.5% higher on record trading volume. Russia temporarily suspended commercial shipping through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal. The suspension followed continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels. The July WASDE was most supportive for corn, cutting US 26/27 ending stocks by 170 mbu to 1.79 billion bushels. Global corn carryout also fell by 5.96 mmt, while managed money flipped back to a net long in corn. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, although passage remained possible amid severe risks and very limited traffic.

Freight (Lite) : The dry bulk market strengthened in Panamax and Ultramax, while Handysize rates eased.  The strongest conditions were recorded for Ultramax vessels in the US Gulf and Panamax vessels in the North Atlantic. Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent, although prompt Black Sea grain business and selected US Gulf long-haul routes remained supported.  US Gulf grain activity improved slightly, led by corn and soybeans. Brazilian grain exports declined, while Black Sea exports eased but remained above the comparable period last year. EU and UK grain exports excluding the Black Sea also declined.  Higher bunker costs and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz increased insurance, routing and execution risks. Handysize and Ultramax trades face the most direct exposure, while Panamax grain freight is affected mainly through bunker costs and vessel positioning.  The Handysize market weakened across the Atlantic and Pacific, with the Global Handysize Baltic Index falling to USD 16,506 per day.  East Coast South America softened as weaker grain exports and limited cargo demand left charterers with greater negotiating leverage.  The US Gulf remained selective. Standard transatlantic business eased, while longer-haul grain routes continued to attract firmer support.  The Black Sea was the clearest area of improvement. Prompt grain demand tightened the available vessel list and supported stronger levels, although later dates remained less certain.  The Continent and Baltic stayed weak as limited cargo formation and sufficient prompt tonnage continued to pressure the market.  Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain stems and specific US Gulf long-haul requirements. East Coast South America and the Continent continue to offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax recorded the strongest grain-related physical earnings, with Ultramax earnings rising to USD 21,490 per day.  The US Gulf remained the strongest basin. Grain demand supported firm Atlantic and Far East employment, although the vessel list appeared healthier towards the end of July.  East Coast South America remained supported for prompt modern tonnage. However, weaker Brazilian exports suggest that current strength is being driven more by vessel positioning than by rising cargo volumes.  The Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean also firmed as prompt vessel availability tightened. Grain and industrial cargoes supported the market, although activity remained uneven.  The Continent and Baltic were more balanced. Weak regional grain exports limited demand, but alternative cargoes prevented a clear correction.  Overall, Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt US Gulf and Black Sea requirements. Later East Coast South America and Continent positions can be approached more patiently.  Panamax and Kamsarmax remained firm, although the market showed signs of consolidation rather than further acceleration. The Baltic Panamax Timecharter Average reached USD 20,276 per day.  The North Atlantic remained supported after active fixing reduced both cargo and vessel lists. Owners continued to seek higher levels, but the more balanced position list reduced the need for buyers to chase the market.  East Coast South America was mixed. Prompt and early-August business remained supported, while owners and charterers continued to disagree over the effect of higher bunker costs.  The US Gulf remained firm due to grain demand and Atlantic replacement economics. However, improving vessel availability limited the case for extending prompt premiums too far forward.  The Black Sea lacked a clear standalone Panamax signal, despite grain exports remaining above the comparable period last year.  The Pacific held broadly steady. Prompt North Pacific grain and Australian employment remained supported, while forward positions were more balanced.  Overall, Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America positions should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  Ultramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Panamax continued to receive support from North Atlantic and US grain demand.  Handysize weakened in East Coast South America and the Continent. Prompt Black Sea geared business improved as the available vessel list tightened.  Lower Brazilian grain exports limited the case for extending current Atlantic premiums into later dates.  Panamax remained firm but showed limited evidence of a fresh upward move. Prompt North Pacific grain requirements continued to support rates, while forward positions were more balanced.  Handysize and Ultramax conditions remained constrained by healthier vessel availability and uneven cargo demand.  Temporary weather disruption around eastern China may affect vessel schedules, but the freight impact should remain limited unless port closures persist.  Continent and Baltic conditions remained weak because available tonnage exceeded fresh grain and shortsea cargo demand.  East Coast South America softened as Brazilian grain exports declined.  Prompt Black Sea grain business strengthened following a reduction in available vessels.  US Gulf support remained concentrated in specific long-haul grain routes rather than the wider Handysize market.  Renewed US strikes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and increased war-risk, insurance and bunker exposure.  Some vessels continued to transit, but reversed sailings, ballast queues and GPS interference were reported around key Gulf loading areas.  Owners may require shorter offer validity, additional contractual protection and higher risk premiums. Buyers should confirm routing assumptions, war-risk allocation, bunker exposure and cancellation provisions before comparing voyage offers.  Higher bunker costs increased voyage expenses, particularly on longer routes from the US Gulf, East Coast South America and the Black Sea.  US Gulf grain activity remained supportive, while lower Brazilian, Black Sea and European export volumes created a more uneven Atlantic demand picture.  Forward soybean buying supported prompt and early-forward US Gulf freight but did not justify extending current premiums into later dates.  Tighter prompt Ultramax availability supported the Black Sea, while healthier US Gulf and North Atlantic lists limited the potential for another broad rate increase.  Weak grain exports and subdued summer cargo formation continued to pressure smaller vessel employment around the Continent and Baltic.  Handysize buyers should secure prompt Black Sea grain and specific US Gulf long-haul exposure. East Coast South America and the Continent still offer more flexibility.  Supramax and Ultramax buyers should prioritise prompt cover in the US Gulf and Black Sea. Later East Coast South America and Continent requirements should be approached more patiently.  Panamax buyers should cover prompt North Atlantic, US Gulf and North Pacific grain requirements where timing is fixed. East Coast South America should continue to be tested where dates remain flexible, while Black Sea requirements should be approached selectively.  The market remains Atlantic-led, with the strongest conditions concentrated around prompt positions and restricted vessel availability. The key distinction is between immediate requirements in tight basins and later exposure where cargo flow and tonnage are more balanced. 

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week under pressure as traders positioned ahead of the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Corn led the decline, falling to fresh contract lows, while wheat continued to face harvest pressure despite growing concerns over European weather. remained the dominant theme. Hot and dry conditions persisted across France, keeping stress on corn, while cooler temperatures and rainfall improved prospects across northern Europe. In the US, winter wheat harvest advanced to 48% complete, while corn and soybean condition ratings slipped slightly but remained above the five-year average. Markets rebounded after the USDA delivered a friendlier-than-expected report. Wheat acreage was the biggest surprise in Tuesday’s report, coming in 1.1 million acres below expectations, mainly because of lower winter wheat area. Outside the US, Canadian farmers reduced wheat plantings while expanding canola area more aggressively than expected. EU wheat exports also continued to outperform last year, with shipments exceeding 23 mmt and line-up estimates approaching 27.5 mmt. Follow-through buying lifted grains higher as rumors of renewed Chinese demand supported sentiment, although no purchases were confirmed. Attention increasingly shifted toward July weather, with US forecasts remaining favorable while heat continued to threaten corn production in France and Spain. Brazil also strengthened the global supply outlook after StoneX raised its second-corn production forecast, while easing inflation and lower oil prices reduced pressure on broader commodity markets. Markets traded quietly ahead of the US holiday, with weather forecasts and China headlines providing the main direction. Traders remained reluctant to price in additional Chinese demand without confirmed purchases. US drought coverage improved further, while Argentina continued reporting strong wheat planting progress. Saudi Arabia also returned to the market with a 655k-ton wheat tender for September-October shipment. Trading remained subdued with US markets closed for Independence Day. French wheat ratings weakened but remained close to last year's levels, while harvest advanced quickly. French maize conditions fell sharply, dropping 18 pp w/w to 58% G/E as of June 29. That compares with 78% G/E a year ago. Attention also turned to Saudi Arabia's wheat tender, while OPEC+ agreed to increase August oil production, adding further pressure to energy markets.

Freight (Lite) 03/07/2026: The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance this week. Panamax recorded the clearest short-term improvement among the grain-focused segments, supported by tighter prompt supply in the North Continent and better Pacific cargo activity. Supramax remained broadly stable and continued to generate the highest average earnings among the grain-relevant vessel classes. Handysize conditions varied more significantly, with a firm US Gulf contrasting with softer markets in East Coast South America, North Europe and parts of the Pacific. Capesize also recovered, although the move was largely driven by renewed iron ore activity rather than a wider improvement across dry bulk freight. Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, particularly on longer routes. However, they have not removed the Atlantic freight premium because vessel positioning and prompt availability remain the main pricing drivers. Handysize became increasingly divided by region this week. The US Gulf remained the strongest area, supported by healthy grain activity and a prompt vessel list that was tighter than published tonnage counts suggested. Off-market fixing continued to remove ships without always producing visible fixtures, helping owners maintain established levels. East Coast South America softened as additional vessels entered the basin and expected second-half July cargo demand failed to develop fully. Grain demand remains present, but charterers have regained some negotiating leverage. North Europe also weakened as prompt tonnage increased faster than fresh grain and scrap enquiry. The region remains easier to cover than the stronger Atlantic grain basins. The Black Sea stayed broadly stable. Grain exports improved, but cargo volumes were not sufficient to absorb the available vessel list or generate a meaningful freight increase. Pacific conditions also softened, particularly in Southeast and North Asia, where vessel supply began to exceed fresh cargo demand. Overall, Handysize buyers should secure prompt US Gulf requirements but remain patient in East Coast South America, North Europe and most Pacific markets. Supramax and Ultramax remained firm in the Atlantic but continued to lose momentum in Asia. The US Gulf retained the clearest freight premium. Grain cargoes and limited fresh vessel arrivals supported both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul employment, leaving prompt physical earnings well above generic forward values. East Coast South America also remained supported, particularly for trans-Atlantic business. The South Atlantic list was still relatively short, although fronthaul demand was less convincing than Atlantic-facing employment. The Mediterranean and Black Sea were broadly balanced. Grain, clinker and West Africa cargoes provided support, but softer India and Far East business showed that buyers did not need to accept every owner indication. North Europe moved gradually in charterers’ favour as conventional Baltic employment became more limited and vessel availability increased. Asian earnings remained substantially below Atlantic levels. Softer Indonesian and South China employment continued to offset the strength seen in the US Gulf and South Atlantic. Overall, prompt US Gulf Supramax exposure should still be covered early. East Coast South America remains supported, while the Continent and Asia offer buyers greater flexibility. Panamax showed modest improvement this week, supported by firmer conditions in the North Atlantic and a stabilising Pacific market. Prompt tonnage tightened in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, while trans-Atlantic and mineral demand improved. This allowed owners to achieve firmer levels for immediate employment. The Pacific also began to recover from its recent lows as Australian and North Pacific cargo activity increased. Owners increasingly preferred shorter employment or strategic repositioning, reducing prompt vessel availability. East Coast South America remained more mixed. Brazilian grain exports and the advancing corn harvest continued to support cargo availability, but voyage freight to China did not strengthen alongside the North Atlantic market. The US Gulf stayed firm for prompt dates, supported by better grain inspections and higher Atlantic replacement costs. However, vessel supply is expected to become more comfortable for later July and August positions. The Black Sea remained a follower rather than a market leader. Export volumes improved, but regional supply was balanced and no independent Panamax squeeze developed. Overall, buyers should secure prompt North Atlantic Panamax requirements. East Coast South America and later summer positions can be approached more selectively as additional tonnage is expected. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region for Handysize and Supramax. Grain activity and limited fresh tonnage continue to support prompt freight. East Coast South America Conditions differ by vessel size. Handysize softened, Supramax remained supported and Panamax continued to benefit from Brazilian grain demand. North Atlantic Prompt Panamax availability tightened, supporting stronger trans-Atlantic and fronthaul business. Pacific Handysize and Supramax remained softer, while Panamax began to stabilise as cargo activity improved. Mediterranean and Black Sea The region remained broadly balanced. Grain and industrial cargoes provided support, but available vessel supply prevented a wider squeeze. Fuel and bunkers Lower bunker prices are improving voyage economics, but vessel positioning remains more important for prompt Atlantic freight. Security and routing Traffic through Hormuz is recovering, although insurance, mine clearance and political uncertainty mean Gulf operations have not fully normalised. Agricultural flows Stronger US inspections, Brazilian corn exports and improving Black Sea volumes provide a constructive demand base heading into July. China demand Limited purchases of new-crop US soybeans could support future US Gulf freight, although the outlook remains too uncertain to justify a large forward premium. Atlantic versus Pacific Prompt Atlantic supply remains tighter than Pacific supply across most geared vessel segments, preserving the premium for Atlantic physical freight. Handysize buyers should cover prompt US Gulf requirements but retain flexibility in East Coast South America, North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax buyers should prioritise the US Gulf. East Coast South America remains supported, while North Europe and Asia should remain more negotiable. Panamax buyers should move earlier on prompt North Atlantic requirements. Later July, August and East Coast South America positions can be handled more selectively. The freight market remains dependent on local vessel balances rather than one broad dry bulk trend. Prompt Atlantic positions continue to command premiums, but sustained strength beyond July is less certain as additional ballasters enter the market.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week with a split performance. MATIF wheat found support from intensifying heat across western Europe, while US wheat remained under pressure from the advancing harvest. Corn and soybeans closed lower as favorable US crop conditions continued to weigh on sentiment despite ongoing concerns over Europe. European weather dominated the discussion, but also drew attention. EU soft wheat exports continued to outperform last year, with line-up estimates already exceeding 27 mmt, while Egypt began exploring higher wheat imports from Poland to diversify grain supplies. Meanwhile, US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly to 40% complete. US wheat and corn extended their decline as harvest pressure continued to build and South American supplies weighed on corn markets. In contrast, Europe remained focused on persistent heat and limited rainfall, with forecasts showing crop stress gradually shifting from France toward northern producing regions. Supply revisions remained mixed. Sovecon lowered Russia's wheat crop forecast to 88.9 mmt after excessive rainfall reduced spring wheat plantings, while EU wheat exports continued to move ahead of last year's pace. Jordan once again made no purchases in its wheat tender. MATIF wheat rallied again as hot and dry weather across western Europe remained the dominant market driver. US wheat failed to hold early gains, while corn and soybeans weakened despite sharply lower oil prices. Egypt opened discussions to increase wheat imports from Poland as part of efforts to diversify strategic food supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices briefly dropped back into the $60s after Iran assured the US that commercial vessels would not face additional costs when passing through the Strait of Hormuz under the interim peace agreement. Markets reversed direction, with MATIF wheat easing while US grains recovered alongside firmer oil prices. Traders also digested a fresh round of global production estimates. The European Commission lowered its production forecasts for soft wheat, corn and barley after reducing harvested area estimates, while the IGC raised its outlook for global corn and wheat production. US drought conditions changed little, suggesting European weather remains the larger concern for grain markets. Grains finished the week lower, led by wheat, as traders shifted their attention toward the upcoming USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Weather remains the dominant driver, particularly for European crops facing prolonged heat and for US corn entering its critical pollination period. French wheat ratings slipped another two percentage points but remained above last year and the five-year average, while maize conditions deteriorated more sharply. US-Iran tensions eased after both sides agreed to halt attacks ahead of renewed peace talks in Doha, although shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain closely monitored. The Russian ruble weakened sharply, switching Russia's wheat export tax back on after several weeks at zero.

Freight (Lite) : Dry bulk freight lost some momentum this week, but performance varied significantly across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax was the strongest segment, posting gains while Supramax eased from recent highs and Capesize continued to weaken. In the geared market, the Atlantic remained firmer than the Pacific, particularly in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, where prompt vessel supply stayed tight. The reopening of Hormuz and the US-Iran agreement pushed bunker prices sharply lower, with Brent falling to around USD 74 per barrel. However, freight rates have not fully reflected lower fuel costs. Security incidents near Oman continue to create uncertainty around routing, insurance and Gulf operations, meaning owners still price in geopolitical risk despite cheaper bunkers. For freight buyers, the divide remains clear. Atlantic prompt positions continue to command premiums due to tighter vessel availability, while the Pacific offers greater flexibility as supply remains more comfortable. Handysize remained resilient despite weakness in larger geared segments. Atlantic markets continued to outperform, supported by grain demand and tight nearby supply, while Asia stayed stable rather than strong. Europe remained subdued as oversupply continued to limit upside. East Coast South America maintained firm levels, although activity slowed slightly after the recent rally. Grain demand from Brazil continues to underpin sentiment, and prompt July vessel supply remains limited. The US Gulf also held firm, with charterers still paying premium levels for prompt trans-Atlantic grain business. Although headline vessel numbers appear comfortable, much fixing has occurred privately, leaving the prompt market tighter than it appears. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean improved only gradually as grain demand remained selective and supply stayed workable. North Europe remained stable but uninspiring. Scrap and grain demand were insufficient to tighten the market, leaving owners increasingly focused on Atlantic alternatives. Overall, buyers should continue securing Atlantic Handysize cargoes early, while maintaining greater flexibility in North Europe and the Pacific. Supramax softened slightly after several weeks of strong gains, although the Atlantic continued to outperform the Pacific by a wide margin. The US Gulf remained the strongest basin, with trans-Atlantic and Mediterranean business still fixing in the low to mid USD 30,000s per day. However, fresh enquiry slowed during the week, flattening the rally rather than reversing it. East Coast South America remained firm, although market participants increasingly believe rates are approaching their near-term ceiling. Grain demand remains healthy, but further upside now appears more limited. The Mediterranean and Black Sea continued improving as clinker, grain and West Africa cargoes absorbed part of the regional oversupply. Conditions are firmer than earlier in June, although not yet tight enough to create a genuine squeeze. Asia presented the weakest picture. Indonesian and Southeast Asian business softened as prompt vessel availability increased faster than cargo demand, leaving Atlantic earnings substantially above Pacific equivalents. Overall, Atlantic Supramax should still be booked ahead of Pacific business, although buyers no longer need to chase every indication as aggressively as they did a week ago. Panamax emerged as the strongest freight segment this week, supported by improving Atlantic fundamentals while the Pacific finally began finding a floor after several weeks of weakness. The Atlantic strengthened as prompt North Continent tonnage tightened and trans-Atlantic demand improved. East Coast South America continued to benefit from healthy grain demand, particularly for late July positions, while prompt June windows remained more balanced. The US Gulf stayed firmer than the Pacific, supported by steady grain and mineral enquiry, although the strongest tightening remained centred on the wider North Atlantic rather than the Gulf alone. The Pacific remained softer overall, but the downside now appears increasingly limited after rates tested the USD 13,000 per day range on shorter voyages. Vessel supply remains comfortable, allowing buyers greater flexibility unless prompt dates are required. Europe also improved as prompt North Continent supply tightened and mineral demand strengthened, giving owners more negotiating power for immediate positions. Overall, Panamax currently offers the strongest outlook among the major dry bulk segments. Buyers should prioritise Atlantic grain cargoes while continuing to approach Pacific business more patiently. Fuel and bunkers Lower oil prices have eased voyage economics, but freight has not surrendered all of the geopolitical premium built into Atlantic markets earlier this month. Security and routing Hormuz has reopened, but recent security incidents near Oman demonstrate that routing risks remain. Insurance costs and operational uncertainty continue to influence freight pricing. Agricultural flows Improved Brazilian corn production estimates continue supporting Atlantic grain exports and provide a positive backdrop for freight demand heading into July. Atlantic versus Pacific Atlantic markets continue outperforming the Pacific due to tighter prompt vessel availability, particularly for geared vessels. The Pacific remains more balanced, allowing buyers greater flexibility. Paper markets softened this week despite continued resilience in Atlantic physical freight. Panamax spot continues trading above forward values, reflecting stronger Atlantic grain demand than currently priced into derivatives. Supramax paper weakened behind the front month, although Atlantic physical rates continue commanding meaningful premiums over Asia. Handysize paper remains broadly aligned with physical values, although Atlantic routes continue outperforming generic index levels. Overall, buyers should avoid relying solely on softer paper markets as an indication that Atlantic prompt freight will become easier, particularly for grain cargoes. Panamax currently offers the strongest freight outlook, supported by tighter Atlantic supply and improving grain demand. Supramax remains attractive in the Atlantic, although momentum has slowed compared with previous weeks. Buyers should continue booking Atlantic cargoes ahead of Pacific positions but can negotiate more selectively than before. Handysize continues to prove resilient thanks to healthy Atlantic grain demand and stable Australian activity. Early booking remains advisable for Atlantic cargoes, while North Europe and the Pacific continue offering greater flexibility for buyers.

Weekly Grains & Oilseeds Outlook : Grain markets started the week with another volatile session. Wheat and corn initially followed oil prices lower before recovering, while MATIF wheat failed to fully participate in the rebound and slipped below the 200 EUR/t level for the first time in almost four months. The reaction suggested there was little geopolitical premium left in grain markets despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Lower prices quickly attracted demand. Algeria entered the market with a wheat tender for August shipment, while Jordan again refrained from making purchases. Romania's wheat crop outlook continued to improve, with Argus projecting a record harvest of 13.86 mmt. also remained under pressure, with Russian 12.5% protein wheat trading at lower levels ahead of the new season. In the US, crop conditions improved across wheat, corn, and soybeans, while corn export inspections remained solid despite easing from the previous week. MATIF wheat led markets higher as heat concerns in France, Algeria's wheat tender, and technically oversold conditions encouraged buying. Chicago wheat also moved higher, while Kansas wheat lagged due to improving harvest weather. Soybeans found support from speculation that China had returned to the US market. Australia's weather bureau said El Niño has formed and could become one of the strongest in decades, posing risks to crops and food supplies across Asia and Australia. At the same time, France's farm ministry raised its wheat area estimate while sharply reducing its grain maize area forecast. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, while export programs suggest shipments are approaching 26.5 mmt, with Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria accounting for roughly one-third of the total. US wheat and corn futures rallied on talk that China was not only buying US soybeans but was also asking about US corn and wheat prices. MATIF wheat followed higher, although gains were more limited as the spread between European and US wheat narrowed sharply. The geopolitical backdrop also improved. Trump signed an interim US-Iran memorandum aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell back toward levels seen before the conflict, removing much of the support energy markets had recently provided to grains. Meanwhile, Algeria purchased an estimated 800k to 870k tons of wheat at around $264 to $265/t C&F, roughly $5 to $6 below prices paid for July shipment in early May. Markets weakened ahead of the US holiday, with wheat, corn, and soybeans all moving lower. A stronger dollar and continued weakness in oil prices added pressure, while weather conditions across the US remained broadly favorable. Demand remained active despite lower prices. USDA export sales showed another strong week for corn and soybeans. USDA also confirmed soybean sales to China and additional purchases from unknown destinations, making it official that China had resumed soybean purchases from the US. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest and planting progress, while drought coverage across US corn and soybean areas declined further. MATIF wheat drifted lower in quiet trade as the US holiday reduced liquidity. Attention remained focused on weather and developments in the US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran continued advancing a roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore commercial shipping flows, helping keep oil prices near pre-conflict levels. Weather conditions increasingly diverged between regions. Frequent rainfall across the US Midwest supported corn and soybean development, while France and Spain continued to face hot and dry conditions. French wheat ratings slipped only slightly and still point toward a solid harvest. Egypt's wheat imports declined during the 2025/26 season as stronger domestic production reduced import requirements. USDA confirmed three additional Texas screwworm cases, bringing the total number of US cases to 15.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/2026: The main macro shift was the US-Iran deal framework and the reopening of Hormuz. This lowered bunker expectations and eased the most extreme Gulf panic, but it has not returned the market to normal. Insurance, mine clearance, crew changes and the restart of Gulf cargo programmes remain uncertain.

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/06/26 : Grain markets started the week mixed, with US wheat futures recovering from oversold levels while European wheat continued to drift lower. Soybeans extended their losing streak, and corn stabilized only after reaching fresh lows. Despite ongoing volatility in oil markets, agricultural markets appeared increasingly focused on crop conditions and supply fundamentals rather than energy prices. The fundamental picture remained mixed. Russian wheat prices weakened ahead of the new season, while US corn exports continued to outperform expectations. Markets traded in a narrow range as liquidation pressure appeared to ease following several weeks of heavy selling. Attention shifted toward the upcoming USDA report, although expectations pointed to only limited revisions. Export demand remained active. Jordan secured wheat for August shipment at slightly lower prices than the previous tender, while Bangladesh entered the market with a wheat tender of its own. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year’s pace, with customs data showing shipments above 22 million tons and export programs suggesting actual exports remain significantly higher. Meanwhile, weather conditions across much of the US Corn Belt and northern Europe remained broadly favorable. Renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and pressured broader financial markets. Grains initially followed energy higher but failed to hold gains as traders remained focused on the upcoming USDA report and generally comfortable supply prospects. Positioning data showed a significant shift in sentiment, with speculative traders flipping from a net long to a net short position in MATIF wheat. At the same time, expectations for the USDA report pointed toward only minor changes to US balance sheets, while larger South American crops continued to weigh on global corn and soybean outlooks. Inflation also remained a concern after US consumer prices reached their highest level in three years. The USDA report broadly matched market expectations, leaving corn under the most pressure after global ending stocks came in above forecasts. Kansas wheat was the relative outperformer following another reduction in US HRW production, while falling oil prices added further pressure across the grain complex. Outside the USDA report, conditions remained generally favorable. Drought coverage declined across US corn, soybean, and spring wheat areas, while Argentina continued reporting solid planting and harvest progress. The US CPC also confirmed that El Niño conditions are present, a development that will be closely monitored in the months ahead, particularly for Australia and other weather-sensitive exporters. Grains finished the week on a weak note, with corn the only major contract able to post modest gains. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement of an interim US-Iran agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remove some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodity markets throughout the conflict. French wheat conditions improved slightly, adding further pressure to wheat prices and reinforcing confidence in the crop outlook. There was also unconfirmed discussion that China may have purchased French wheat, which, if confirmed, would mark the first such purchase since the 2023/24 season. Meanwhile, speculative selling accelerated across CBOT markets, with funds flipping from a large net long to a net short position in corn and expanding already substantial short positions in Chicago wheat.

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/06/2026: Dry bulk freight stayed firm this week, but the strength was not evenly spread. Panamax and Supramax were the strongest parts of the market, while Handysize improved in selected routes and Capesize moved lower. The main pressure is now concentrated in the geared Atlantic and selected Pacific routes. Freight is not rising everywhere, but where prompt tonnage has cleared, buyers face a real replacement problem. The Iran conflict remains the main macro driver. Oil prices eased, but freight did not follow in the same way because owners still need to price insurance risk, bunker access and route uncertainty. Handysize improved on the index and in selected Atlantic and Pacific routes, but the market remains mixed by basin. East Coast South America firmed late in the week, helped by sugar, grain and second-half June demand. The market is balanced rather than tight, but owners regained some confidence as larger segments strengthened.The US Gulf stayed firm, supported by steady enquiry and a balanced tonnage list. Inter-Caribbean business remained active, while Atlantic demand was strong enough to hold rates. The Black Sea improved modestly from weak levels, supported by West Africa grains and clinker, but demand is still selective. The Continent also improved, mainly on scrap and forward demand, though it still lags the stronger Atlantic basins. Overall, Handysize is firmer, but not in a full squeeze. Buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Supramax remained firm and strengthened further in the Atlantic. The US Gulf stayed the standout basin, supported by grain, petcoke and coal demand. Prompt tonnage cleared sharply, leaving owners with stronger control over June coverage. East Coast South America also pushed higher, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul demand supporting the market. The prompt list shortened, giving owners more leverage. The Black Sea improved clearly as more cargo appeared and excess supply was absorbed. The region is no longer as weak as it was in late May.Europe also firmed materially, led by scrap and a healthier supply-demand balance. It still followed the Atlantic rather than leading it, but buyers now have less room to wait than earlier in the month. Overall, Supramax is one of the strongest segments, and buyers face real replacement risk if they delay coverage. Panamax stayed firm and regained upward momentum. The Atlantic tightened on prompt dates, especially in the North Continent and West Mediterranean, where charterers needing immediate cover had to pay up. North Coast South America also strengthened. East Coast South America became much firmer, with late June and early July grain demand driving stronger owner confidence. The US Gulf remained firm rather than explosive, supported by grain and mineral enquiry. The Pacific stopped falling and found a firmer floor, supported by Australia and North Pacific cargoes. Overall, Panamax remains one of the cleanest firm segments. Waiting for cheaper freight now looks riskier than it did a week ago. Atlantic Basin The geared Atlantic tightened again. The US Gulf and East Coast South America are now the key pressure points, especially in Supramax and Panamax. Pacific Basin The Pacific stayed firm rather than running sharply higher. Australian and North Pacific cargoes supported the market, while backhaul remained a strong Supramax leg. Europe Europe improved, but it still did not lead the market. The main pricing power remains in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Black Sea The Black Sea improved from weak levels, but demand remains selective and the region still follows broader Atlantic strength rather than setting direction. Fuel and bunker access Bunkers are no longer just a question of price. Fujairah remains tight, while Singapore and Brazil are functioning better. Fuel availability is now shaping freight decisions alongside bunker cost. Security and routing The Persian Gulf still carries real route and insurance risk. Owners remain cautious even when headlines calm for a few days. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue to make Atlantic-to-Pacific replacement expensive, supporting westbound Americas business. China demand risk Chinese steel demand remains the main risk for Capesize. Panamax is better protected by grain demand and tighter Atlantic prompt supply. Europe Europe recovered this week, helped by scrap and forward demand, but it remains less tight than the stronger Atlantic geared markets. Handysize buyers should move earlier where timing is fixed in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe is firmer, but still offers more flexibility. Supramax buyers should prioritise earlier cover in the US Gulf and East Coast South America. Europe now also deserves less patience than it did two weeks ago. Panamax buyers should cover earlier on prompt Atlantic and East Coast South America business. The tactical room to wait has narrowed again. Across all segments, the market remains firm but selective. The strongest risk for buyers is in routes where prompt tonnage has already cleared and replacement is becoming expensive.

Agri- Commodities: 01-05/06/26 : Grain markets started June on a weak footing and struggled to follow the sharp rally in oil prices. While energy markets reacted strongly to renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, agricultural markets remained focused on harvest pressure and improving global supply prospects. The fundamental picture was mixed. Australia projected a significantly smaller wheat crop, while Russia continued moving in the opposite direction, with IKAR raising its wheat production estimate again. also remained a key focus, with US corn exports continuing to run ahead of USDA expectations while Morocco's improving harvest outlook pointed to lower wheat import demand later in the year. Grain prices remained under pressure as harvest activity accelerated and markets increasingly disconnected from oil price movements. Kansas wheat continued to lead losses, posting another lower close as harvest pressure built and improved rainfall prospects eased concerns in Europe. The latest EU export data showed wheat shipments continuing to outpace last year, while Morocco announced plans to suspend its wheat import duty from August. However, improved rainfall in Morocco is expected to sharply reduce import demand compared with previous seasons. Inflation concerns also returned to the forefront after Eurozone inflation reached its highest level since 2023, increasing expectations of further ECB tightening. The sell-off intensified midweek as momentum-driven liquidation continued across grain markets. Corn joined wheat in falling back to levels seen before the Iran conflict, while funds aggressively reduced long positions in European wheat. Supply-side developments remained largely bearish. Russia increased its wheat production forecast above 91 million tons, while Tunisia and Jordan remained active buyers in the physical market. Meanwhile, attention shifted to the first confirmed US screwworm case since 1966, raising concerns for livestock production and potentially reducing future feed demand if the outbreak expands. At the macro level, the OECD warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions could significantly slow global growth while increasing inflation pressures. Bearish sentiment remained dominant as soybeans led losses on favorable US weather forecasts and fading optimism over Chinese demand. Traders also continued to monitor the screwworm situation, although no additional outbreaks had yet been reported. Crop conditions remained relatively stable despite drought concerns. Argentina continued reporting strong harvest progress and favorable wheat planting conditions, while drought coverage in US corn and soybean areas increased modestly. Export demand remained disappointing, with weekly US sales failing to show any meaningful improvement despite ongoing trade discussions. Grain markets ended another difficult week lower as funds continued liquidating positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat. MATIF wheat managed to outperform slightly thanks to currency movements, but overall sentiment remained weak. French wheat ratings declined again but remained above both last year and the five-year average. The USDA also confirmed a second Texas screwworm case, prompting expanded containment efforts and increasing concerns about potential impacts on livestock production and feed demand if the outbreak spreads. Positioning data confirmed heavy speculative selling, with corn longs reduced sharply and Chicago wheat shorts climbing to their highest level since February.

Weekly Freight Recap: 05/06/2026 : The dry bulk market lost momentum this week, but it did not break down. Capesize and Panamax corrected from recent highs, while Supramax and Handysize remained relatively resilient. The market is increasingly fragmented, with larger vessels facing softer Atlantic conditions while geared segments continue to find support in the US Gulf and Asia. The key theme remains that freight is no longer moving in one direction. Route-specific fundamentals, vessel positioning and regional cargo flows are driving performance more than broad market sentiment. Handysize was broadly unchanged to slightly firmer in the US Gulf and Asia but softened further in East Coast South America and remained weak across Europe and the Mediterranean. The segment continues to be defined by regional divergence rather than a unified trend. South Atlantic Handysize has now clearly lost the leadership it held earlier in May. Recalada-to-Skaw/Passero eased to around USD 20,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero improved to approximately USD 18,250/day. The Baltic Handysize Index increased to around USD 15,500/day, although most of the support came from the Gulf and Pacific markets rather than South America. East Coast South America remains under pressure from a long prompt vessel list. Grain demand is present but insufficient to absorb incoming ballasters from West Coast South America, West Africa and the Mediterranean. The US Gulf remains the strongest Handysize market in the Atlantic. Vessel supply is balanced, demand remains steady and owners continue to defend levels successfully. The Black Sea and Continent remain weak due to persistent oversupply and limited grain activity. The expected seasonal boost from Black Sea exports is increasingly viewed as a fourth-quarter story rather than an immediate summer catalyst. Overall, buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while earlier coverage remains advisable in the US Gulf and selected Pacific positions. Supramax continued to outperform the larger vessel segments. The US Gulf remained the strongest Atlantic geared market, while Asia regained momentum following holiday disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean moved toward a more balanced position after several weak weeks. The Baltic Supramax Index climbed to around USD 20,000/day, close to a one-year high. The strongest physical support remains concentrated in the US Gulf and selected Asian routes. US Gulf-to-China/South Japan traded around USD 27,500/day, while US Gulf-to-Skaw/Passero reached approximately USD 28,500/day. East Coast South America remained active but lacked the momentum seen in previous weeks. Demand remains sufficient to support rates, particularly on fronthaul business, but the basin no longer commands the strongest Atlantic premium. The US Gulf continues to benefit from healthy enquiry, tighter prompt vessel availability and strong support from both Atlantic and fronthaul cargoes. The Continent and Mediterranean have improved materially from early May. Supply and demand are now closer to balance, although neither basin appears tight enough to generate a major upside move. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue prioritising coverage in the US Gulf and stronger Asian routes, while Europe offers greater flexibility. Panamax softened this week and lost the leadership position it held through much of May. The Atlantic weakened as vessel availability increased, while the Pacific remained relatively resilient thanks to Australian and Indonesian export demand. The Baltic Panamax Index declined to approximately USD 20,300/day from around USD 21,000/day the previous week. Atlantic prompt positions have become noticeably easier to cover as the vessel list expanded across most loading regions. South American grain remains the strongest Atlantic outlet, but support is concentrated on later June cargoes rather than prompt loading dates. The prompt market has lost urgency as vessel supply has increased. The US Gulf remains functional but lacks the tightness required for a grain-led rally. Fronthaul demand remains subdued and owners face a more comfortable vessel balance than earlier in May. The Pacific remains the strongest Panamax region. Australian and Indonesian export programmes continue to support round voyages and provide better fundamentals than the Atlantic market currently offers. The Black Sea remains a longer-term story. Export flows are expected to build significantly after harvest, but the largest freight impact is now expected during October and November rather than immediately following harvest. Overall, Panamax buyers now have greater tactical flexibility in prompt Atlantic positions, while Pacific cargoes still require relatively early coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic basin for both Handysize and Supramax. Balanced vessel supply and steady cargo demand continue to support rates. East Coast South America Handysize softened further and Supramax stabilised. Growing vessel availability continues to outweigh current grain demand. Pacific Basin The most resilient region for larger vessels. Australian and Indonesian exports continue to support Panamax activity, while Asian Supramax routes remain firm. Mediterranean & Black Sea Still the easiest regions to cover. Oversupply remains the dominant theme and stronger seasonal grain flows are unlikely to materially tighten conditions before autumn. Fuel and energy Bunker prices declined again, but freight rates did not follow proportionally lower. Route risk and replacement costs remain more important pricing factors than fuel alone. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro influence. Hormuz continues to operate under severe constraints, keeping insurance costs elevated and distorting vessel deployment decisions. Panama Canal High transit costs and limited flexibility continue to discourage Atlantic-to-Pacific repositioning, supporting Atlantic replacement values. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, but weakness in Chinese steel production is beginning to weigh on sentiment for Capesize and Panamax markets. Black Sea exports The expected seasonal export increase appears concentrated in October and November rather than July. This reduces the likelihood of an immediate summer freight boost from Black Sea grain. Handysize remains a basin-by-basin market. South America and Europe continue to offer buyers flexibility, while the US Gulf and Pacific deserve earlier attention when cargo timing is fixed. Supramax remains the healthiest geared segment. Strong US Gulf demand and stable Asian fundamentals continue to support rates despite softer conditions in larger vessel classes. Panamax has become more tactical. Prompt Atlantic positions are no longer scarce, but Pacific replacement costs remain elevated and the second half of the year still looks broadly constructive. The market is not weak, but it is increasingly selective. The best opportunities now come from identifying regional imbalances rather than relying on a single global freight trend.

Agri- Commodities: 25-29/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week under pressure as sharply lower oil prices weighed on wheat and rapeseed. Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported commodities in recent weeks. However, uncertainty remained high after US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz took place despite ongoing negotiations. Fundamentally, Russian wheat prices continued to rise, while Europe experienced an unusually early heatwave. Record and near-record May heat across western Europe has increased concerns about crop development and yield potential ahead of the key summer growing period. conditions will remain a key focus as traders assess whether dryness and heat begin to impact crop ratings. US wheat futures extended their decline as improving planting progress and broader market weakness offset support from another deterioration in winter wheat conditions. Winter wheat ratings fell to their lowest level for this week since 1986, highlighting the continued challenges facing US wheat production despite recent rainfall in some regions. The European Commission reduced production estimates for wheat, barley, and corn, reinforcing concerns about the upcoming EU harvest. Ukraine maintained a relatively stable wheat outlook, while export activity remained solid on both sides of the Atlantic. EU wheat exports continued to exceed last year's pace, with export programs suggesting shipments have already surpassed 25 million tons. Grain markets moved lower again as oil prices fell sharply following reports of a potential US-Iran interim agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Chicago wheat, which has shown one of the strongest correlations with oil during recent months, led the decline. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the negotiations continued to create volatility across agricultural markets. Global supply prospects also improved. India reported a record wheat harvest, while Sovecon increased its Russian wheat production forecast above 90 million tons. Harvest activity began across key US wheat regions, although drought, freeze damage, and excessive moisture continue to create mixed yield expectations. Meanwhile, speculative investors further increased their net long positions in MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets traded mixed as traders reacted to a combination of geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and rumors of improved US-China trade relations. Reports that the US and Iran could extend their ceasefire by 60 days helped calm energy markets and pushed oil prices lower. Meanwhile, speculation that China may reduce tariffs on US grain imports supported corn and soybeans. Drought remained widespread across US winter wheat areas, although conditions improved slightly from the previous week. Argentina continued to report favorable growing conditions, with wheat planting progressing well and production forecasts remaining strong for both soybeans and corn. Wheat prices ended the week sharply lower, with US futures falling more than 2% and MATIF wheat also posting significant losses. Corn came under pressure as funds continued to liquidate large long positions accumulated earlier in the season. Despite the decline, markets began the new week with some recovery as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations persisted. In Europe, French wheat ratings declined modestly but remained above last year's levels. Export demand remained steady, although US corn sales were near the lower end of expectations. Positioning data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans, while speculative short positions in Chicago wheat increased further. At the same time, negotiations between the US and Iran continued without a final agreement, leaving geopolitical risk as an important factor for commodity markets moving forward.

Weekly Freight Recap: 29/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained fragmented this week, with strength concentrated in specific routes rather than across entire basins. Panamax stayed firm in the Pacific but softened on prompt Atlantic dates, Supramax remained strongest in the US Gulf, while Handysize improved in the US Gulf and Asia but weakened in South America and Europe. Capesize continued to trade from an elevated base. The key market theme is that freight is no longer moving as one block. Atlantic grain regions are behaving differently, vessel positioning has become increasingly important, and regional supply-demand balances are driving rate direction more than broad macro sentiment. Handysize was firmer in the US Gulf, softer in East Coast South America, weak across the Mediterranean and Continent, and remained constructive in Asia. The segment continues to deliver mixed signals depending on basin. The biggest shift was the change in Atlantic leadership. The US Gulf overtook South America as the stronger Atlantic market, with US Gulf-to-Continent rates rising to around USD 18,000/day while Recalada-to-Continent rates slipped to around USD 20,000/day. Heavy ballast pressure in South America continues to weigh on prompt positions. East Coast South America softened again as too many vessels rolled into the same early June loading window. Grain and sugar demand remain present but are not strong enough to absorb the growing list of available ships. The US Gulf improved thanks to healthier cargo flow and a more balanced vessel list. Demand is not exceptionally strong, but it is sufficient to support higher levels than a week ago. The Black Sea and Continent remained under pressure due to persistent oversupply and limited cargo activity. Overall, Handysize buyers can remain patient in South America and Europe, while US Gulf positions deserve more attention if June timing is important. Supramax remained firm overall, although basin divergence widened further. The US Gulf continued to be the strongest Atlantic geared market, the Continent improved modestly, while East Coast South America became increasingly positional rather than directional. The US Gulf remained the standout performer. Rates held around USD 28,000/day to the Continent, USD 30,000/day to West Mediterranean, and approximately USD 28,000/day to China and South Japan. Strong enquiry and tightening prompt supply continue to support owners. East Coast South America was broadly flat to slightly softer. Prompt ships have started discounting to secure cargoes, while mid-June dates continue to command premiums. The market remains supported but lacks the momentum seen earlier in May. The Continent improved from recent lows as additional scrap cargoes surfaced and some ballasters were drawn toward South America. Nevertheless, the basin remains balanced rather than tight. The Black Sea remains weaker than the Atlantic, with demand still insufficient to absorb available tonnage. Overall, Supramax buyers should continue moving early in the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes, while East Coast South America and Mediterranean positions offer greater flexibility. Panamax remained firm overall, although the Atlantic and Pacific are now clearly diverging. Pacific markets remain well supported by Australian and Indonesian export activity, while prompt Atlantic positions have softened as vessel availability increased. The Baltic Panamax average remained around USD 20,500–21,000/day, but that headline number masks a growing regional split. Pacific rounds continue to trade around the low USD 20,000s/day, supported by steady export flow and tighter vessel positioning. In South America, grain demand remains supportive for late June positions, but prompt sentiment has weakened. Early vessels are fixing significantly below forward positions as the prompt list has expanded. The US Gulf remained supported but no longer looks tight. Grain and mineral demand remains present, but much of the cargo interest is focused on forward dates rather than prompt loading windows. Europe also softened as grain demand failed to keep pace with growing vessel availability. Mineral cargoes continue to provide support, but not enough to tighten the prompt market. Overall, buyers now have slightly more flexibility in prompt Atlantic Panamax positions, while Pacific business still requires earlier coverage. US Gulf The strongest Atlantic region this week. Handysize and Supramax both improved, supported by healthier cargo flow and tighter vessel positioning. East Coast South America Momentum faded across Handysize and Supramax as prompt vessel supply increased. Forward positions remain better supported than prompt dates. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm markets, supported by Australian minerals, Indonesian exports and relatively tighter vessel balances. Panamax remains particularly strong. Mediterranean & Black Sea Oversupply remains the dominant theme. Cargo volumes are insufficient to absorb available tonnage, limiting owners’ ability to push rates higher. Fuel and energy Bunker prices softened, but freight largely ignored the move. Route risk, replacement cost and disrupted vessel circulation continue to outweigh lower fuel prices. Security and routing The conflict involving Iran remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz continues to operate under significant constraints, affecting voyage planning, insurance costs and vessel positioning. Panama Canal High transit costs continue supporting Atlantic freight by discouraging vessel repositioning between basins. US Gulf freight remains a major beneficiary of this dynamic. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while any additional Chinese grain buying from the US could quickly tighten Atlantic grain freight again. Europe The region remains oversupplied. Holidays reduced liquidity, but vessel availability remains the main obstacle to a broader recovery. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe. The US Gulf looks firmer and deserves earlier coverage when June timing is fixed. Supramax buyers should continue prioritising the US Gulf and stronger Atlantic fronthaul routes. East Coast South America has become more positional and less urgent, while Mediterranean opportunities remain available. Panamax buyers can afford slightly more patience in prompt Atlantic positions than they could a few weeks ago. However, Pacific business remains tight enough to justify earlier coverage. The market remains firm in absolute terms, but increasingly fragmented. Success over the coming weeks will depend less on overall market direction and more on identifying which individual routes are tightening and which are quietly becoming oversupplied.

Agri- Commodities: 18-22/05/26 : Agricultural markets started the week firmer, led by corn and Chicago wheat, as traders focused on expectations that both commodities could benefit from potential Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods. Wheat markets also found additional support from another deterioration in US winter wheat conditions, which fell to the lowest level for this time of year since 1996. European wheat followed higher as well, although gains were more limited due to expectations that any Chinese buying would mainly reshape existing trade flows rather than create entirely new demand. US crop progress showed rapid planting pace for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat, all running ahead of expectations. At the same time, MARS lowered EU yield estimates for both wheat and barley, with declines expected across most of Europe. Export inspections were disappointing for wheat, while soybeans continued to lag sharply behind last year’s export pace to China. In the background, markets also reacted to renewed geopolitical uncertainty after Trump postponed planned strikes on Iran to allow more time for negotiations, while the EU warned that the Iran conflict could weaken growth and increase inflationary pressure. US wheat prices initially rallied following the poor winter wheat ratings, but gains faded later in the session as China still had not confirmed the agricultural purchase commitments discussed by the US. Outside of that, trading was relatively quiet, with attention increasingly shifting toward longer-term planting incentives and geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Global supply outlooks remained mixed. Germany increased winter wheat area modestly for the 2026 harvest, while analysts in Brazil warned that soybean area growth could slow sharply due to weak margins and high fertilizer costs. Algeria secured milling wheat in an international tender, while Jordan again refrained from purchasing wheat. EU exports remained ahead of last year, though the pace has slowed. Meanwhile, NATO discussions about a potential Hormuz shipping mission highlighted growing concerns around global energy supply security. Grain markets were broadly weaker midweek as sharply lower oil prices pressured sentiment across commodities. Milling wheat was the exception, supported by unconfirmed reports of French wheat demand from unusual destinations such as Mexico. The absence of any confirmed Chinese buying continued to disappoint traders and limited broader upside momentum. Weather conditions became a growing concern across several regions. Forecasts pointed to increasing dryness and above-normal temperatures across most of Europe, while Russia was expected to receive beneficial rainfall that could support winter crops but further delay sowing. In the US, conditions remained mostly favorable for completing planting, including some relief rain in key HRW wheat areas. Positioning data showed non-commercial participants sharply increasing their net long in MATIF wheat and rapeseed, reflecting stronger confidence in European markets compared with CBOT. CBOT grain prices continued to ease on Thursday, while MATIF wheat remained comparatively resilient. Traders appeared increasingly cautious ahead of the US Memorial Day weekend, especially after the strong rally seen earlier in the month. Oil prices remained relatively stable, removing some of the outside-market support for US grains. Fundamentally, several major exporters updated their outlooks. Argentina announced lower export taxes for wheat and barley beginning next year, while Turkey projected a sharp rebound in cereal production. Germany’s DRV revised wheat area slightly higher but still expects lower production year-on-year. The IGC maintained its global corn forecast but trimmed wheat production again. US export sales were dominated by exceptionally strong corn demand, particularly from Japan and Mexico, while drought concerns in US winter wheat areas remained elevated despite a slight weekly improvement. There is also talk that Russia is actively selling wheat to Brazil. If true, this should soon be confirmed by . Wheat prices ended the week lower, while corn and soybeans posted modest gains ahead of the long US holiday weekend. With CBOT closed on Monday, attention shifted toward how markets would react to ongoing US-Iran negotiations once trading resumed. Oil prices moved sharply lower after Trump said talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were progressing constructively, although uncertainty remained over how quickly any agreement could materialize. In Europe, French wheat conditions remained stable and comfortably above last year’s levels, though persistent hot and dry weather continues to raise concerns. Germany also secured a new phytosanitary agreement allowing wheat exports to Indonesia, opening access to one of the world’s largest import markets. In South America, Argentina further raised both soybean and corn production estimates, reinforcing expectations for very large exportable supplies. Positioning data showed funds reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans while covering part of their Chicago wheat short position.

Weekly Freight Recap: 22/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the strongest gains were concentrated in fewer routes and vessel classes. Panamax continued to lead the market, Capesize stayed elevated from a high base, Supramax held firm in selected Atlantic and Pacific pockets, while Handysize weakened in South America and Europe but remained supported in the Pacific. The market is now being driven more by route scarcity and vessel positioning than by one broad basin trend. Middle East disruption remains the dominant macro driver. Hormuz is still heavily constrained in practice, and owners continue pricing in routing risk and tighter effective vessel supply even when crude softens on negotiation headlines. Handysize weakened again in East Coast South America and Europe, while the US Gulf improved modestly, and the Pacific stayed constructive. South America lost momentum as ballast pressure continued to build. Too many prompt ships rolled into the same early June window, keeping owners flexible and limiting upside. The US Gulf was firmer than the headline market suggested. A steadier June cargo program and a cleaner vessel list helped improve trans-Atlantic business. The Black Sea remained soft due to oversupply and shallow grain demand. The Continent and Baltic also stayed under pressure, with too many prompt ships chasing limited enquiry. The Pacific remains the strongest area in the segment, supported by tighter prompt availability and firmer Australia-linked business. Overall, buyers can now be more patient in East Coast South America than they were a week ago, while US Gulf positions deserve more caution heading into June. Supramax stayed firm overall, but the split between strong and weak routes widened further. East Coast South America remained one of the strongest areas, especially on long-haul and fronthaul business. Larger units continued benefiting from Panamax-style stems, which helped keep the basin elevated. The US Gulf also stayed firm, particularly on Atlantic-facing business into the Mediterranean and Continent. Tight first-half June positioning continued to support owners. West Coast South America is also tightening, while the Pacific remained broadly stable to firm. The Black Sea improved slightly but remained secondary, and the Continent continued lagging the stronger Atlantic basins despite a small midweek improvement in scrap demand. Overall, Supramax still has a firm base, but strength is now concentrated in vessel-scarce grain and long-haul routes rather than across the full basin. Panamax remained the strongest and most consistent freight segment. Both basins stayed firm, with the Atlantic supported by North Coast South America grain flows and tightening prompt supply, while the Pacific continued benefiting from mineral demand and Australian business. South America remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, with firmer fronthaul demand and tighter vessel balance continuing to support owners. The US Gulf improved alongside the broader Atlantic market, though South America still maintained the stronger premium. Europe also stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand supporting the market while prompt vessel availability tightened. Paper and physical continue to move in the same direction, reinforcing the strength of the segment. Overall, Panamax remains the segment where buyers have the least room to wait. Atlantic Basin Panamax and selected Supramax routes remain firm due to grain demand and tighter prompt supply. Handysize has softened in South America amid rising ballast pressure. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains one of the cleanest firm regions across all major sizes, supported by minerals, Australia, and tighter vessel positioning. Mediterranean / Black Sea The region remains oversupplied overall. Some western Mediterranean routes improved slightly, but cargo depth is still insufficient to drive a broader recovery. Fuel and energy Freight is no longer reacting directly to every crude move. Routing risk, replacement cost, and vessel positioning remain more important than flat bunker price alone. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained, and Gulf-linked businesses continue to carry a premium. Owners are still differentiating sharply between standard Indian Ocean trades and Gulf exposure. Panama Canal Canal delays and booking friction continue supporting Atlantic-to-Pacific positioning by tightening effective vessel supply. China demand risk Pacific mineral demand remains supportive, while potential US-China agricultural flows could further strengthen Atlantic grain demand. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity again, but the core imbalance remains unchanged. Too many prompt ships are still limiting recovery in the Continent and the eastern Mediterranean. Handysize buyers should remain patient in East Coast South America and Europe, but move earlier on prompt Pacific business and selected US Gulf June cargoes. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America, West Coast South America and selected US Gulf Atlantic routes. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more flexibility. Panamax buyers should continue prioritising earlier cover. Both physical and paper markets remain aligned, and vessel availability continues tightening in the strongest grain and mineral corridors. Across all segments, the market remains firm, but increasingly selective. The key challenge is no longer identifying whether freight is strong or weak overall, but identifying which routes are tightening fastest.

Agri- Commodities: 11-15/05/26 : Grain markets started the week sharply higher as tensions in the US-Iran conflict intensified ahead of the USDA WASDE report and the Trump-Xi meeting. US winter wheat ratings fell to the second lowest level for this week in 30 years, while wheat futures moved higher again overnight following the weaker-than-expected crop conditions report. Russian wheat export values also remained firm as markets focused on tightening global supply expectations. The USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheets delivered a bullish tone for wheat, with US production projected down 11.5 mmt y/y and world wheat output expected to fall by around 25 mmt across major exporters. Corn and soybeans received more supportive-than-bearish balance sheets as well, with global ending stocks for both crops coming in below expectations. Wheat prices surged following the WASDE release, with both Kansas and Chicago wheat futures closing limit up after USDA projected the lowest US HRW wheat production in 69 years. The market was additionally supported by poor crop conditions and disappointing yield estimates from the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas tour. Outside the US, France projected a sharp drop in maize plantings for 2026 as farmers react to low prices and weak margins, while continued pointing to stronger EU wheat exports than official customs data suggested. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed as oil prices posted a third straight daily gain, adding broader support to commodity markets. Wheat prices turned lower midweek after another failed attempt to rally further, while traders shifted their focus toward the US-China summit in Beijing. Kansas wheat remained relatively supported by poor crop conditions and concerns over global wheat production, including sharply lower forecasts for Argentina’s upcoming crop. Elsewhere, Morocco suspended wheat imports after rainfall boosted its cereals harvest expectations to 9 mmt. France also slightly increased its wheat export outlook, while fund positioning remained volatile as non-commercial traders sharply reduced their MATIF wheat net long during the previous reporting week. A wave of liquidation hit grain markets on Thursday after the Trump-Xi meeting failed to deliver major new Chinese buying commitments. Soybeans led the decline, with losses quickly spreading into corn and wheat, while MATIF wheat remained somewhat less sensitive than CBOT markets. The final Kansas wheat tour estimate confirmed a 27% y/y drop in average yields, reinforcing concerns over the US HRW crop. At the same time, drought coverage across US winter wheat areas increased again, while both Brazil and Argentina updated crop estimates showing larger soybean and corn supplies but weaker wheat outlooks. The week ended with sharp losses across grains and oilseeds as speculative positioning built ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting was aggressively liquidated. Wheat fell back to pre-WASDE levels, while corn tested key chart support despite continued strength in oil prices. Over the weekend, however, China and the US announced progress toward a preliminary agricultural trade agreement, including soybean tariff relief and expanded US agricultural purchases. Meanwhile, fund positioning showed managed money increasing its Chicago wheat short despite the earlier wheat rally, while reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans.

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/05/2026 : The dry bulk market stayed firm this week, but leadership shifted again. Panamax strengthened further and became the clearest bullish segment, while Capesize remained elevated. Supramax firmed selectively, led by South America and parts of the Pacific, while Handysize split more sharply between a weaker Atlantic and a firmer Pacific. The market is no longer moving on one common basin story. Route-specific vessel scarcity, Atlantic grain timing and persistent Middle East risk are now the main drivers. Crude remained headline-sensitive, but owners did not materially cheapen forward freight. War-risk, bunker access and routing uncertainty continue to distort replacement costs and ballast decisions. Handysize weakened in the Atlantic but stayed firmer in the Pacific. East Coast South America lost momentum as ballast pressure increased. Prompt supply became heavier, and limited nearby demand pushed rates lower after the stronger levels seen earlier in May. The US Gulf stayed broadly flat. Some cargoes were covered early in the week, but this was more calendar-driven than a sign of real tightening. The Black Sea remained soft, with long vessel supply and thin cargo flow continuing to pressure the market. The Continent and Baltic also stayed soft to flat, with too much tonnage against limited straightforward cargo. The Pacific was the main positive area, with tighter lists and firmer owner ideas. Overall, Handysize buyers can wait longer in the Atlantic unless timing is fixed, but should move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax firmed overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America strengthened again, supported by tight prompt supply, fronthaul demand and larger units being pulled into Panamax-style stems. The US Gulf remained firm on selected Atlantic routes, especially where vessel willingness was limited. However, fronthaul to Asia eased slightly, showing that strength is not uniform. West Coast South America turned sharply stronger, adding another layer of support to the wider South American market. The Black Sea improved modestly but remained secondary, while the Continent softened again due to limited fresh cargo and an overly comfortable tonnage list. Overall, Supramax remains constructive, but buyers should focus on route scarcity rather than assuming the whole basin is firm. Panamax strengthened again and remains the strongest freight segment. South American grain remained the strongest Atlantic outlet, supported by cargo density and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic market, helped by grain and fronthaul demand, though South America still held the better premium. The Pacific remained firm, supported by mineral demand and Australian business. Europe stayed constructive, with both mineral and grain-linked demand helping support fronthaul, while prompt ships became harder to source. Overall, Panamax is the most time-sensitive segment for buyers. The physical market is firm, and paper is reinforcing the rally. Atlantic Basin Panamax remains strong, led by South American grain and tighter prompt supply. Supramax is firm in selected route pockets, while Handysize has weakened as ballast pressure builds. Pacific Basin The Pacific is firmer across several sizes, especially Handysize, Supramax and Panamax. Mineral demand and tighter lists continue to support sentiment. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains one of the weaker areas. Vessel supply is still long, and local demand is not strong enough to drive a broad recovery. Fuel and energy Bunker prices remain volatile and headline-sensitive. Freight replacement costs are still being shaped by war-risk and routing uncertainty, not just flat bunker prices. Security and routing Hormuz remains functionally constrained. Red Sea, India-linked and Gulf-adjacent employment still carry premiums, and route pricing has not normalised. Panama Canal Canal friction continues to support Atlantic-to-Pacific freight by making vessel substitution harder and extending voyage chains. China demand risk Panamax and larger sizes remain supported by Pacific minerals and possible agricultural flows into China, but the broader demand picture is still policy-dependent. Europe Holiday disruption reduced liquidity, but the core imbalance remains. The Continent and eastern Mediterranean still have too many prompt ships for a broad freight recovery. Handysize buyers should wait in Atlantic positions unless cargo timing is fixed, but move earlier on prompt Pacific cover. Supramax buyers should cover early where route scarcity is visible, especially in South America and selected US Gulf trades. The Continent and weaker Mediterranean positions still allow more patience. Panamax buyers should prioritise earlier coverage. This is the strongest physical segment, supported by both Atlantic grain and Pacific mineral demand. Across all segments, freight remains firm, but increasingly route-specific. The key risk for buyers is waiting too long in the basins where vessel scarcity is already visible.

Agri- Commodities: 04-08/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer as rising oil prices supported grains, with soymeal and Chicago wheat leading gains. Iran struck the UAE as the US escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz, adding fresh geopolitical risk to commodity markets. Saudi Arabia bought 985k tons of wheat for June–August shipment, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values for early June rose to $238.5/t. US winter wheat ratings improved slightly nationwide, though key HRW states continued to decline. Corn and soybean planting remained ahead of average pace, while strong US corn export inspections and an upward revision to Brazil’s corn crop added to the market focus. Grains turned lower on Tuesday as improving weather forecasts pressured wheat and weaker oil prices triggered profit-taking in corn and soybeans. Markets also reacted to signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after the US paused its naval escort operation. Crop concerns, however, remained in focus. Oklahoma’s wheat tour projected sharply lower yields and production compared with last year, while traders also looked ahead to the upcoming Wheat Quality Council tour across major US wheat states. Oil prices plunged and stock markets rallied on reports that the US and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the war, sending most grain and oilseed markets lower. Kansas wheat was the exception, recovering on ongoing US weather concerns and new frost risks. Elsewhere, Algeria bought an estimated 390k–420k tons of wheat in its latest tender, while Tunisia projected a larger domestic harvest after favorable rainfall. Fund activity remained aggressive, with non-commercial traders significantly increasing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Markets finished mostly lower but recovered well from intraday lows as oil prices rebounded later in the session. Kansas wheat remained under pressure despite continued concerns over US HRW crop conditions. The US Drought Monitor showed 70% of US winter wheat areas affected by drought, far above last year’s levels. Export sales disappointed for wheat and soybeans, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again after renewed exchanges between the US and Iran. US wheat futures outperformed European markets on Friday, while corn and soybeans also ended firmer ahead of the USDA’s first 2026/27 balance sheet projections. Energy prices moved higher again as peace talks between the US and Iran appeared to stall. Analysts expect lower US wheat and corn production in the new season, while managed money continued aggressively adding to corn and soybean longs. Funds bought 80k corn contracts as markets whipsawed on Iran headlines.

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/05/2026 : The dry bulk market remained firm this week, but the move was uneven by size and basin. Capesize and Kamsarmax strengthened most clearly, Ultramax stayed firm but became more selective, and Handysize improved in East Coast South America while parts of the US Gulf and Europe lost momentum. The market is now split between firmer grain and mineral basins on one side and oversupplied Mediterranean and Continent positions on the other. Bunker prices eased with crude during the week, but freight did not soften in the same way. Owners remain cautious on forward cover because Middle East risk is still unresolved and the Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally. Handysize remained split by region. East Coast South America strengthened again and remains the clearest area of support. Soybeans and sugar continued to drive demand, and prompt grain cover still needs to be treated carefully. The US Gulf was broadly flat to mixed. Better enquiry appeared earlier in the week, but more tonnage entered the market and capped further upside. The Black Sea stayed soft, with heavy supply and limited grain demand keeping rates under pressure. The Continent softened further as too many prompt ships competed against limited cargo. Most enquiry sat further forward, leaving nearby fixing weak. Asia remained firm and continued to offer one of the cleaner prompt markets. Overall, Handysize strength is concentrated in East Coast South America and Asia, while the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean look less urgent. Ultramax stayed firm overall, but the market became more route-specific. East Coast South America remained well supported, especially on fronthaul and north Brazil business. The basin stayed balanced, with steady fixing flow rather than any major squeeze. The US Gulf stayed firm but mixed by route. Fronthaul improved and remained the clearest support, while some Europe-facing routes eased slightly. The Black Sea and Mediterranean remained soft, with structural oversupply still limiting recovery despite some stabilisation. The Continent lost some of last week’s tightness as more tonnage became available and prompt cargo thinned. Overall, Ultramax still has a firm base, but buyers can be more patient on Europe-facing cover while remaining cautious on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Kamsarmax strengthened again and remains the cleanest firm segment. South American grain stayed the best Atlantic outlet, supported by steady cargo flow and tighter prompt supply. The US Gulf improved with the wider Atlantic tone, though it still did not lead the market. The basin is supported, but South America remains stronger. The Pacific stayed firm, helped by strong mineral and Australian business. This remains one of the clearest areas of demand support. Europe remained mixed but firm, with mineral demand doing more to support the basin than grain.Overall, Kamsarmax combines firm physical demand with a tightening vessel balance, making it the strongest segment for the next few weeks. Atlantic Basin South America remains the main source of strength, especially for grain-linked employment. The US Gulf is firmer in Kamsarmax and Ultramax but less convincing in Handysize. The Continent and Mediterranean remain pressured by oversupply. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains strong, particularly for Kamsarmax and prompt Handysize positions. Mineral demand and Australian activity continue to support the market. Mediterranean / Black Sea This remains the weakest area. Supply is heavy, grain demand is limited, and owners continue to face pressure unless they can ballast into stronger regions. Fuel and energy Bunker prices eased with crude, but not enough to reset freight. Owners remain cautious because Gulf risk is still unresolved. Security and routing The Persian Gulf remains difficult to price normally, and premiums for Red Sea and India-linked employment remain above normal. Panama Canal Canal economics remain supportive for freight, with Atlantic cargoes still competing for Asia-bound vessel capacity and longer voyage chains reducing effective supply. China demand risk Mineral demand continues to support Kamsarmax and larger sizes, but the broader demand picture remains mixed rather than fully bullish. Europe Activity improved after the holiday period, but Mediterranean and eastern Mediterranean vessel supply remains too large for a clean recovery. Handysize should be bought earlier in East Coast South America and on prompt Pacific business. Buyers can wait longer in the US Gulf, Continent and Mediterranean unless timing is fixed. Ultramax remains firm, especially on fronthaul and Pacific-linked stems. Europe-facing cover looks less urgent where cargo timing allows. Kamsarmax remains the strongest segment, with South America and the Pacific best supported. Waiting for a softer prompt market still looks risky. Across all segments, freight remains supported by tighter vessel positioning, unresolved Middle East risk and stronger mineral and grain basins, even though bunker prices have eased.

Agri- Commodities: 27-01/05/26 : Ag markets started the week firmer, supported by higher oil prices, though performance diverged across the complex. Soymeal led with a near 3% gain, while Chicago wheat rose more than 2%, in contrast to slightly weaker nearby MATIF wheat. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 985k tons of wheat for June–August arrival, exceeding the initial tender volume, with prices ranging from $273.33 to $285.00/t CnF, while Russian 12.5% protein wheat for May held steady at $237/t. In Europe, MARS raised EU soft wheat yield estimates by 1% to 6.05 t/ha, though still down y/y, with Spain expected to see the largest decline. US winter wheat conditions remained weak at 30% G/E and spring wheat planting lagged, while corn and soybean planting moved quickly. Export inspections showed corn and wheat still ahead of last year, while soybeans lagged, and soymeal futures surged after the Netherlands rejected Argentine cargoes containing the HB4 gene. Wheat markets posted a sharp rally, with Chicago and Kansas futures rising more than 4% and MATIF gaining around 2.5% on heavy volume. Strength in oil prices, tightening US wheat balance sheet expectations, and ongoing weather risks contributed to the move, with funds actively adjusting positions. Geopolitical developments remained central, with reports of a prolonged US naval blockade targeting Iranian trade flows and the UAE’s exit from OPEC raising questions about cohesion within the group. On fundamentals, Canadian wheat production was projected lower at 36.2 mmt, EU export data remained incomplete despite stronger line-up signals, and India proposed regulatory changes to allow higher ethanol blending. The wheat rally paused midweek, though MATIF continued higher, with December futures reaching levels last seen in July 2025. Corn extended its upward trend with a ninth consecutive higher close, approaching key levels, while positioning adjustments were expected ahead of the long weekend. Global supply expectations shifted, with Australian wheat production forecast to fall to 29.0 mmt in 2026/27 due to lower area and yields, aligning with expectations of smaller crops across major exporters. Positioning data showed funds turning net long in MATIF wheat and extending longs in rapeseed, while the US maintained its blockade stance on Iran, keeping pressure on oil markets. With European markets closed, trading activity was quieter, and US wheat saw only marginal movement, while corn remained strong, pushing the December 2026 contract to a new multi-year high. Kansas wheat weakened slightly on improved rainfall forecasts in key areas. In Europe, French wheat conditions edged lower but remained above last year’s levels, while maize planting advanced quickly. The European Commission adjusted its balance sheet with higher production and lower exports, India resumed wheat exports after four years, and fund positioning showed continued strength in corn and wheat while soybean longs were trimmed.

Weekly Freight Recap: 01/05/2026 : The dry bulk market lost some momentum this week, but it did not reverse. Panamax stayed constructive, Supramax and Ultramax eased from recent highs in some basins, and Handysize became more mixed. The market is now being driven by regional timing rather than one broad direction. Hormuz disruption, high fuel costs and elevated insurance continue to keep voyage replacement costs high, even where spot freight has stopped rising. Panama Canal costs and waiting times also remain supportive for freight, especially where Atlantic cargoes are moving toward Asia. Effective supply is still tighter than the raw fleet count suggests. Handysize became more mixed this week. East Coast South America remained the strongest Atlantic area, supported by soybean demand and firmer grain levels. The basin was quieter due to holiday timing, but underlying support remained intact. The US Gulf improved again, with more second-half May cargoes appearing and the tonnage list moving closer to balance. However, supply is still sufficient enough to prevent a sharper rise. The Continent and Mediterranean softened, with thinner demand and more prompt ships giving charterers more leverage. The Black Sea also weakened, with limited grain demand and ample supply keeping rates well below stronger Atlantic grain employment. Asia remained the clearest source of Handysize strength. Overall, Handysize is still better than earlier in April, but the recovery is now selective rather than broad-based. Supramax and Ultramax stayed firm in absolute terms, but the April rally paused. The US Gulf eased slightly from recent highs, though it remains expensive and supported by steady trans-Atlantic demand. The market now looks supported rather than squeezed. South America stayed constructive, with soybean demand continuing to support the main Atlantic grain routes. The basin held up better than some other regions. The Continent firmed further, helped by tight prompt supply and scrap demand. However, the market remains vulnerable if more spot ships appear. The Mediterranean and Arabian Gulf remained weak, while Asia softened from last week’s rally but still held elevated levelsz Overall, Supramax remains firm, but the urgency has eased in parts of the Atlantic. Panamax stayed constructive, but the split between regions became clearer. South American grain remained the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The Pacific stayed firm, with visible cargo flow and strong Australian activity supporting rates. The North Atlantic was softer and remains pressured by a larger vessel list. Mineral demand continues to support parts of the basin more than grain. The US Gulf remained secondary to South America, with stable to slightly firmer sentiment but no clear grain premium. Overall, Panamax remains firm in absolute terms, but strength is concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic is more divided than last week. South America remains supported, the US Gulf has eased in Supramax but improved in Handysize, and the North Atlantic remains burdened by visible tonnage. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains the strongest relative area, especially for Panamax and Handysize. Cargo flow is visible, and positioning remains important. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, but not strong enough to drive the wider market. Routing and fuel costs continue to affect positioning. Fuel and energy Oil and product fuel costs remain high, keeping ballast and forward voyage calculations difficult, especially on longer Atlantic-to-Asia employment. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained and continues to be the main geopolitical factor in freight. Insurance costs remain far above normal. Panama Canal High transit costs and waiting times continue to stretch voyage duration and reduce effective vessel availability. Grains and fertilisers Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, supporting Brazil’s competitive position. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser and energy costs. China demand risk Soft Chinese steel production and weak margins remain a downside risk, especially for larger sizes and Panamax sentiment. Europe Holiday timing and Geneva Dry reduced liquidity this week, making several basins look quieter than the underlying balance suggests. Handysize should remain mixed, with East Coast South America and the Pacific best supported. The Continent, Mediterranean and Black Sea look weaker. Supramax remains firm, but the market has come off the highs. Buyers can be more patient in the US Gulf if timing is flexible, while South America and the Continent still require more caution on prompt coverage. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific. The wider Atlantic still looks looser and less urgent. Across all segments, effective supply remains tight due to routing, canal delays and fuel costs, but the market is no longer rising everywhere at once.

Weekly Freight Recap: 24/04/2026 : The dry bulk market firmed again this week, though the move remained uneven by size and basin. Supramax and Ultramax showed the clearest strength, Panamax stayed constructive, and Handysize continued to improve with a narrower regional spread than last week. The Atlantic is no longer universally cheap. The US Gulf has repriced higher, while South America continues to hold its grain premium. The market is now being driven less by one broad bunker move and more by regional vessel positioning, bunker availability risk, and longer voyage economics. Panama Canal costs and waiting times are also becoming more important as more US cargoes move toward Asia. This is supportive for freight because it stretches voyage duration and reduces effective vessel availability. Handysize improved again this week, but the recovery remained selective. South America strengthened further and remains the strongest Atlantic Handysize basin. Soybean demand continues to support the region, and prompt supply has tightened enough to give owners more leverage. The US Gulf continued to recover, but from a low base. More May cargoes appeared, and the prompt list is clearing, though supply is still ample and the basin remains behind South America. The Black Sea improved slightly but stayed mixed overall. Grain kept the region active, but demand remained too thin to create real momentum. The Continent improved on stronger short-haul and scrap activity, but the picture remains uneven. Grain demand is still secondary, and the basin does not yet have the same strength as South Atlantic grain positions. Overall, Handysize is improving, but ECSA remains the area where buyers need to be most careful on prompt grain stems. Supramax and Ultramax remained the strongest part of the market, with the Atlantic leading the move. The US Gulf remains the centre of strength. Trans-Atlantic demand continues to drive the market, and owners now have more control on the main Atlantic routes. The Gulf can no longer be treated as the cheaper alternative to South America. South America also strengthened modestly, supported by soybean demand and a cleaner prompt balance. The basin remains firm, though not as explosive as the US Gulf. Asia stayed very firm, supported by tightening prompt lists and bunker availability concerns, which are affecting positioning and voyage calculations. The Black Sea remained softer than the Atlantic, despite some route improvement. Oversupply and limited cargo continue to cap the market. The Continent improved materially after Easter, helped by tighter prompt conventional tonnage and scrap demand, though it remains vulnerable if supply rebuilds. Overall, Supramax is in a firm phase, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Panamax stayed constructive, but the market became more split between stronger Pacific demand and a mixed Atlantic. South America remains the best Atlantic outlet, supported by soybean demand and better vessel absorption. The region continues to hold a clear grain premium. The US Gulf remained secondary. It improved with the wider market but still did not create a clear grain premium of its own. The Black Sea remained active but not strong. Wheat demand is present, but not enough to reprice the basin meaningfully. The Continent and Baltic improved modestly, with mineral demand providing better support than grain. The North Atlantic tonnage list remains visible, which limits further upside. Overall, Panamax is firm by recent standards, but the strength is still concentrated in South America and the Pacific rather than across the full Atlantic. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic has repriced higher, especially in Supramax and Ultramax. South America remains the key grain premium area, while the US Gulf is no longer clearly cheap in geared freight. Pacific Basin The Pacific remains supportive, particularly for Panamax and Supramax. Tightening prompt lists and bunker risk are helping sentiment. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady, with no major shift, but stronger Asian sentiment is helping support nearby positioning. Bunkers and energy Bunker availability remains a practical risk, especially at smaller ports supplied from major hubs. This is affecting ballasting choices, speed decisions and forward voyage calculations. Security and routing Hormuz remains heavily constrained in practice. Gulf exposure still carries a premium, and many vessels remain tied up around the Persian Gulf area. Panama Canal Higher canal costs and longer waiting times are supporting freight by stretching voyage duration and reducing effective vessel availability, especially for US Gulf to Asia trades. Commodities and trade flows Soybeans remain the cleaner grain story, which continues to favour Brazil over the United States. Wheat and corn remain more exposed to fertiliser risk and higher input costs. China demand risk The main downside risk remains Chinese destocking. This is more relevant for larger sizes, but it could still weigh on sentiment if it materialises. Handysize should continue to improve selectively, with East Coast South America remaining the strongest area for prompt grain demand. The US Gulf and Black Sea still look less urgent. Supramax remains the firmest segment, especially in the US Gulf, South Atlantic and Asia. Buyers should be more cautious where cargo timing is fixed. Panamax remains constructive, led by South America and the Pacific, but the wider Atlantic still looks more balanced than tight. Across all segments, freight is being supported by tighter effective supply, regional bunker risk and longer voyage economics. The main downside risk is still demand-led, especially if Chinese buying slows.

Agri- Commodities: 20-24/04/26 : Oil prices started the week firmer, offering some support to Chicago wheat, while Kansas wheat diverged and closed lower as weather forecasts turned slightly more favorable in the US Plains. With markets closely tracking both weather updates and US-Iran developments, sentiment remained highly reactive. Trump signaled he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire beyond midweek, though talks are still ongoing and a deal remains possible. US fundamentals were broadly supportive for wheat. Winter wheat conditions fell another 4 pp to 30% G/E, with Kansas dropping sharply to 24%. Planting progress for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat continued at a steady pace, all slightly ahead of average. Export inspections showed strong wheat demand, while soybean shipments to China remained significantly below last year. Russian wheat FOB prices edged higher, and India approved additional wheat exports, although large-scale shipments remain uncertain. At the same time, China projected a long-term decline in soybean imports, pointing to structural demand changes. Grains and oilseeds moved higher after a slow start as oil prices strengthened on uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations. Despite ongoing geopolitical noise, market focus is increasingly shifting toward global weather conditions. Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the blockade, keeping uncertainty elevated. Global supply developments remained mixed. Argentina’s corn crop estimate was raised significantly above USDA levels, suggesting potential upward revisions ahead, while Morocco expects its cereals harvest to double following improved rainfall. In contrast, cold weather in Ukraine may delay spring planting. On the demand side, Jordan secured wheat at slightly lower prices, while US export activity remained active with additional corn sales. Currency movements offered some support to EU wheat competitiveness, while the stronger ruble continued to pressure Russian exporters. Markets remained choppy, driven by weather uncertainty and continued geopolitical headlines. Oil prices rebounded further, yet equity markets continued to rally, indicating broader risk appetite. Grain markets also reflected ongoing discussions around planting decisions amid rising input costs. Supply-side updates pointed to both upside and risks. Russia’s wheat crop forecast was raised, though cold weather is delaying spring sowing in both Russia and Ukraine. Argentina and Australia are expected to reduce wheat area, highlighting potential tightening in future supply. EU exports continued to outpace last year, while positioning data showed speculative participants shifting back to a net short in MATIF wheat. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including vessel seizures, supported oil prices and added volatility. Kansas wheat surged to new multi-month highs as dry conditions in the US Plains persisted, with drought coverage rising further. The rally spilled over into Chicago and MATIF wheat, while corn and soybeans traded more quietly. Weather remains the dominant driver, with limited rainfall expected in key regions. Globally, production signals were mixed. The IGC lowered both corn and wheat output estimates, while uncertainty around India’s wheat crop increased due to weather damage. Demand remained active, with Saudi Arabia issuing a large wheat tender. showed strong corn demand but weak wheat figures. Trade flows also drew attention, with reports of Polish wheat sales to the US and potential Russian shipments to Brazil indicating shifting trade dynamics. Markets ended the week mixed. Wheat prices eased as improved rain prospects weighed on Kansas futures, while corn remained stable and soybeans edged higher. Geopolitical developments continued to create uncertainty, though market reactions remained relatively muted. Negotiations between the US and Iran showed limited progress, with conflicting signals around the Strait of Hormuz and broader deal terms. In grains, French wheat conditions slipped slightly but remained well above last year, while maize planting advanced well. Dry conditions across Europe and rising temperatures remain a concern heading into the next week. Positioning data showed funds adding to long positions in corn and soybeans while increasing their net short in wheat.

Agri- Commodities: 13-17/04/26 : Wheat prices started the week strong, supported by renewed US-Iran escalation and disappointing precipitation in the US Plains, as parts of Kansas missed recent rains and forecasts offered little additional relief. US wheat futures led the rally, while MATIF followed more cautiously, and soybeans declined amid concerns that rising geopolitical tensions could negatively affect US-China trade relations. Oil markets reacted only modestly to the US blockade of Iranian ports, suggesting expectations of a potential deal remained in place. US fundamentals were mixed, with winter wheat conditions falling to 34% G/E, well below last year, while planting progress for corn, spring wheat, and soybeans advanced. Export inspections showed steady soybean demand but weaker figures for corn and wheat. Russia saw wheat prices decline, with lower week-on-week, while a strengthening ruble continued to pressure exporter margins. At the same time, a stronger EUR/USD added pressure on MATIF prices. Kansas wheat extended its rally on continued concerns over poor US crop conditions, pulling Chicago wheat higher and further decoupling price direction from oil. Corn remained relatively stable despite signs of renewed demand, while oilseeds weakened alongside a correction in energy markets. Global supply updates pointed to generally comfortable conditions. Russia reported stable winter crop conditions, while France showed strong wheat ratings and a modest increase in planted area. In South America, Brazil’s CONAB raised both corn and soybean production estimates, reinforcing expectations of ample supply. Export activity remained active, with US corn sales to Mexico and unknown destinations, while EU wheat exports continued to outpace last year. At the macro level, the IMF warned that the Middle East conflict could weaken global growth and raise inflation risks. Corn led gains midweek, supported by concerns over dryness in Brazil and planting risks, while soybeans found support from improved sentiment following more positive US-China rhetoric. Wheat markets were mixed, with US futures slightly higher and MATIF under pressure, while broader financial markets showed increased risk appetite as equities reached record highs. European data highlighted mixed developments, with Germany projecting slightly higher wheat area but lower production, while rapeseed output is expected to increase. France adjusted its export outlook marginally and trimmed ending stocks. At the same time, expectations of reduced corn planting in France due to high input costs pointed to potential structural shifts in cropping decisions. Positioning data showed heavy liquidation of speculative long positions in MATIF wheat, contributing to recent price pressure. The focus remained firmly on US HRW wheat, with Kansas futures extending gains for a fifth consecutive session as drought concerns persisted. While Chicago and MATIF wheat followed, the divergence suggested that the issue remained largely regional. The US Drought Monitor confirmed that a significant share of winter wheat areas remained affected, with little improvement from recent rainfall. Elsewhere, supply prospects remained strong. Argentina raised its corn production forecast following improved crop conditions and expanded plantings, pointing to increased export availability. Western Australia signaled a shift away from wheat toward other crops due to cost pressures. US export sales were mixed, with weaker wheat demand but solid corn performance. In Algeria, durum wheat purchases highlighted continued import demand, while oil markets softened slightly on renewed hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. A sharp decline in oil prices weighed on wheat at the end of the week, while corn and soybeans remained relatively stable as their correlation with energy markets appeared weaker. However, geopolitical uncertainty quickly resurfaced, with conflicting signals around access to the Strait of Hormuz driving renewed volatility. European crop conditions remained stable, with French wheat ratings holding steady and maize planting progressing. In the US, concerns increased over potential frost in drought-affected winter wheat areas, with no improvement expected in upcoming condition reports. On the demand side, Turkey announced a temporary reduction in corn import tariffs to support domestic supply. Positioning data showed managed money reducing long exposure in corn and soybeans, while wheat positions remained largely unchanged.

Weekly Freight Recap: 17/04/2026 : The dry bulk market firmed this week, though the recovery remained uneven across vessel sizes and regions. Panamax and Ultramax showed the clearest gains, while Handysize improved more slowly and in some areas remained soft. The broader backdrop is still mixed. Fuel costs are lower than during the March spike, but bunker pricing continues to vary sharply by port, making forward pricing difficult. At the same time, the ceasefire in the Middle East has improved sentiment, though conditions around Hormuz remain abnormal and still carry a risk premium. Commodity flows are also shaping the market. Fertiliser risks continue to affect grain competitiveness, with soybeans less exposed than wheat and corn. That continues to favour Brazil over the United States and helps explain why South American freight remains relatively well supported. Handysize improved this week, but the recovery was selective and still lags the larger segments. South America remains the strongest Atlantic basin, supported by soybean demand and tighter prompt supply. Owners have more leverage here than they do elsewhere in the Atlantic, especially on prompt grain stems. The US Gulf has started to turn, with better cargo enquiry and some clearing of the tonnage list. Even so, the basin remains oversupplied and continues to trail South America by a wide margin. Europe improved modestly after Easter, helped by tighter prompt supply and better short-haul demand. However, it still remains a secondary market rather than a leading one. The Black Sea stayed soft, with thin wheat demand and continued caution around regional exposure preventing any sustained recovery. Overall, Handysize is no longer falling, but it is still the least convincing segment in the broader recovery. Supramax and Ultramax had the strongest week in the Atlantic, with the US Gulf leading the move. The US Gulf was the standout basin, supported by tightening prompt supply and stronger trans-Atlantic and regional demand. The market has repriced quickly, and the Gulf can no longer be treated as a soft wait-and-see area. South America remained firm, with soybean demand and cleaner vessel supply continuing to support rates. The basin is still strong, though the sharpest momentum has shifted back toward the US Gulf. Asia also improved again, adding to the firmer overall tone. In contrast, the Mediterranean and Black Sea remained softer, with oversupply and limited cargo continuing to cap gains. Overall, Supramax has clearly entered a firmer phase, though the strength remains concentrated in the Atlantic and not yet uniform across all basins. Panamax improved again this week and remains one of the healthier segments. South America continues to provide the strongest support, with grain demand keeping the basin at a premium to the rest of the Atlantic. Brazil’s competitive position in soybeans remains a key driver. The North Atlantic improved more gradually, with firmer sentiment but still enough vessel availability to prevent a sharper move. The US Gulf remained secondary, improving with the wider market but still lacking a clear grain premium of its own. The Pacific stayed supportive, helping maintain the overall firmer tone. Panamax is therefore stronger than it was at the start of April, but the market is still split rather than tight across the board. Atlantic Basin The Atlantic was the strongest region this week. Supramax and Ultramax led the move, especially in the US Gulf, while South America continued to anchor Panamax and Handysize support. Pacific Basin The Pacific remained stable to firmer, with steady demand helping support sentiment, particularly in Panamax and the larger geared sizes. Indian Ocean Activity remained steady, with no major disruption or sharp shift in balance, but enough support to keep the broader tone constructive. Bunkers and energy Fuel prices are no longer moving in one direction. While overall bunker costs remain below the March highs, regional spreads continue to distort voyage economics and make forward pricing difficult. Security and routing Hormuz remains restricted in practice, and Gulf exposure still carries a premium. Owners remain cautious when pricing forward optionality into the region. Commodities and trade flows Fertiliser supply risk remains an important part of the grain outlook. Soybeans remain relatively less exposed, which continues to favour Brazilian export competitiveness and supports South American freight. Europe No major new European disruption emerged. Freight continues to be driven mainly by vessel supply and cargo timing rather than operational bottlenecks. Handysize should continue to improve gradually, but recovery is likely to remain selective and concentrated in South America rather than broad-based across the Atlantic. Supramax is now in a firmer phase, especially in the US Gulf and East Coast South America, though Europe and the Mediterranean still look weaker. Panamax remains supported by South American grain and steady Pacific demand, with further gains possible, though likely to remain measured rather than explosive. Across all segments, freight is firmer, but still highly sensitive to bunker volatility, geopolitical risk and shifting commodity flows.

Agri- Commodities: 06-10/04/26 : US wheat futures fell on Monday, led by Kansas wheat, as improved US weather forecasts pressured prices, while soybeans and corn closed slightly higher. MATIF remained closed and may have some catching up to do today. Overall, the week promises to be eventful on both the geopolitical side, with Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ending today, and the fundamental side, with the USDA WASDE report due on Thursday. The White House said a proposed 45-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is only one of several ideas under discussion and that President Trump has not approved it, calling it a “significant step” but “not good enough”, with military operations still ongoing. Iran also rejected the proposal. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday evening to open the Strait of Hormuz, while US winter wheat conditions came in at just 35% G/E, well below expectations, and Russian 12.5% wheat for May delivery was reported at $239/t. Wheat prices were little changed on both sides of the Atlantic on Tuesday despite very poor initial US winter wheat ratings, as rains expected later this week are seen improving conditions. Soybeans, and especially corn, came under greater pressure, with corn closing at its lowest level in four weeks. Still, the most important developments came after the close, and their impact is visible this morning. Trump agreed to a two-week pause in attacks if Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, easing a major war risk and triggering a sharp drop in oil prices. US wheat futures, which had been closely tracking oil, lost that support and moved lower, while EU soft wheat exports reached 18.0 mmt with line-ups already suggesting volumes above 21 mmt. Plunging oil prices sent wheat prices lower on Wednesday as well, with corn following while soybeans managed slight gains. The market focus remained on geopolitics, as uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire persisted, alongside expectations for a largely uneventful USDA WASDE report focused on old-crop adjustments. The ceasefire quickly came into question, with Iran accusing the U.S. of violating its terms on the same day it was announced, while Washington denied key claims. In physical markets, Jordan bought feed barley, and positioning data showed non-commercial participants reducing net longs in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. The April USDA WASDE report brought limited changes overall but included a notable revision that increased global wheat ending stocks, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Wheat prices reversed earlier gains and closed lower, while corn declined for a third consecutive session, returning to pre-Iran war levels. The Rosario Grains Exchange raised Argentina’s corn production estimate to a record 67 mmt, highlighting improving crop prospects, while U.S. drought conditions worsened, with 68% of winter wheat areas affected. Oil markets remained volatile, with ongoing uncertainty around ceasefire terms and continued tensions involving shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Grains ended the week mixed, with wheat and corn lower while soybeans gained support from stronger meal prices. Markets heading into the weekend were not pricing in a negative outcome from U.S.-Iran talks, but this shifted after negotiations failed .U.S. Vice President JD Vance left talks without a deal, and Trump announced plans for a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, including stopping vessels paying tolls to Iran and clearing mines. USDA confirmed export sales of soybean meal to Italy and corn to unknown destinations, while CFTC data showed broad fund selling across grains, ending a ten-week streak of net buying.

Weekly Freight Recap: 10/04/2026 : The dry bulk market stabilised this week, though the recovery remains uneven. Panamax and Supramax showed improvement, while Handysize continued to lag behind. The main macro shift came from bunkers, which fell sharply following ceasefire headlines. This removed one of the key supports that had been holding freight in weaker regions. However, geopolitical risk has not disappeared. Disruption in the Middle East continues to affect routing and pricing visibility, particularly around the Arabian Gulf. At the same time, underlying commodity dynamics remain important. South America continues to benefit from stronger soybean competitiveness, helping support Atlantic demand despite softer fuel costs. Handysize remained soft, with continued pressure across the Atlantic and some spillover into Europe. The US Gulf is still the weakest region, with persistent oversupply and limited prompt cargo keeping rates under pressure. This imbalance continues to favour charterers. South America is relatively firmer, supported by ongoing soybean demand and tighter vessel availability compared to other Atlantic regions. However, the market is not tight, and execution remains uneven due to timing disruptions. Europe and the Mediterranean remain soft, with available tonnage outweighing demand. Activity has improved slightly, but not enough to shift sentiment. The Black Sea continues to move without a clear trend, with selective demand and ongoing geopolitical caution influencing decisions. Overall, Handysize remains structurally oversupplied, with only pockets of relative strength. Supramax improved this week, but the recovery remains selective rather than broad-based. The US Gulf showed the clearest improvement, supported by better enquiry and reduced prompt pressure. While the market is still competitive, sentiment has strengthened compared to late March. The South Atlantic continues to hold firmer levels, supported by steady cargo flow and a more balanced supply position. In contrast, Europe and the Black Sea remain under pressure, with limited cargo availability and continued competition among owners. Overall, Supramax is no longer declining, but the market is not yet tight enough to support a sustained rally. Panamax improved modestly and remains the most balanced segment. South America continues to offer the strongest employment, supported by soybean exports and favourable positioning into China. This remains the key driver of Atlantic strength. The North Atlantic has stabilised, with some improvement in demand, though not enough to create tight conditions. The US Gulf remains secondary, with steady but unspectacular demand and no clear premium emerging. The Pacific remains supported by consistent cargo flow, helping maintain overall balance. Panamax is therefore improving, but still operating in a stable rather than bullish environment. Atlantic Basin Handysize remains under pressure, especially in the US Gulf and Europe. Supramax and Panamax are improving, with South America continuing to lead. Pacific Basin Markets are stable to slightly firmer, supported by steady cargo programs. Panamax shows the most consistent support. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady but not strong enough to tighten supply significantly. Bunkers and energy Fuel prices fell sharply, removing a key support for freight. Lower bunker costs are easing voyage calculations but also reducing upward pressure on rates. Security and routing Conditions around the Arabian Gulf remain difficult to price. Restricted access continues to limit normal market functioning and adds uncertainty to routing decisions. Commodities and trade flows Brazil continues to benefit from stronger soybean competitiveness, supporting South American export flows. This remains a key driver of relative strength in the Atlantic. Europe No major new disruptions emerged. Market direction continues to be driven primarily by supply and demand rather than operational issues. Handysize is expected to remain under pressure, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply persists. Supramax is stabilising, with improving conditions in the US Gulf and South America, but still lacks the strength for a broad recovery. Panamax remains the most balanced segment, supported by South American grain and steady Pacific demand, though not yet tight. Across all segments, the market has stabilised but remains sensitive. With bunker support fading and geopolitical risk still present, further gains will depend on whether demand continues to build.

Agri- Commodities: 23-27/03/26: Grains started the week under pressure as a Trump headline triggered a sharp drop in oil and lifted broader financial markets. Wheat and corn followed lower but managed to recover from intraday lows as uncertainty around the announcement grew. Market direction remained tied to whether the situation signals a real de-escalation or only a temporary pause. Trump said the US would delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days following what he described as productive talks, although Iran denied that any discussions took place. In Europe, MARS reported mostly favorable crop conditions despite localized weather issues and projected EU soft wheat yields at 5.98 t/ha, implying a smaller crop year-on-year. In the US, winter wheat ratings deteriorated across key states, while export inspections showed strong corn and wheat performance, with soybeans still lagging year-on-year. Tuesday was relatively quiet for wheat, with both Chicago and MATIF posting marginal gains supported by a recovery in oil and fresh tender activity. Corn remained firm and continued to track energy markets, while soybeans lagged. Volatility persisted across grains despite limited new directional drivers. Algeria issued a wheat tender, while Jordan made no purchases. EU soft wheat exports continued to rise, supported by strong suggesting shipments already exceed 20 mmt. Russian exports are recovering, with forecasts still pointing to large volumes, while fertilizer markets tightened as Russia suspended ammonium nitrate exports. Iran-related headlines remained mixed, with both military escalation and diplomatic signals contributing to unstable market sentiment. The MATIF wheat K/U spread remained historically wide, indicating limited concern over old-crop supply. US futures moved higher midweek, supported by more than just geopolitical developments. Soybeans gained on expectations of additional Chinese demand, corn found support from US biofuel policy developments, and Kansas wheat rallied on renewed dryness concerns in key growing regions. Oil also rebounded, reducing pressure on grains. Trump confirmed plans to travel to Beijing in May for trade discussions with Xi Jinping. The EPA approved a waiver for summer E15 sales, supporting corn demand expectations. Iran rejected a US proposal to end the war, maintaining firm conditions for any resolution. In physical markets, Jordan secured feed barley, while wheat market positioning data was delayed. The spread between Russian wheat and Kansas futures continued to narrow, even before accounting for FOB basis levels in the US market. Grains moved higher again on Thursday, led by wheat. Support came from US drought concerns, solid export sales, and strong demand from Algeria’s large wheat purchase. Additional backing came from the European Commission’s first outlook for 2026/27, which pointed to lower EU soft wheat production. US drought conditions expanded further across winter wheat areas, while export sales across all major crops exceeded expectations. Algeria reportedly purchased around 700k tons of wheat, likely from the Black Sea. The European Commission projected a smaller wheat and barley crop but higher corn production. Fund positioning data showed a reduction in long exposure in both wheat and rapeseed. Iran headlines continued to drive oil volatility, with renewed threats followed by another delay in US strike plans. Kansas wheat continued to strengthen on Friday due to persistent dryness in the US Plains, while other wheat markets showed limited follow-through, indicating the issue remains localized. Corn and soybeans declined despite supportive biofuel policy developments and rising energy prices, as markets positioned ahead of key USDA reports. French wheat conditions remained stable and well above last year, while Russian crop conditions were broadly favorable. US weather forecasts remained inconsistent, with limited actual rainfall keeping uncertainty elevated. The US finalized higher biofuel blending mandates, supporting demand expectations, although prices did not react positively. Fund positioning showed continued buying in corn and reduced shorts in wheat. Iran maintained its stance on gaining greater control over the Strait of Hormuz, with ongoing attacks across the Gulf and no clear signs of de-escalation.

Weekly Freight Recap: 27/03/2026 : The dry bulk market softened this week across all segments. Geared vessels remained under pressure, while Panamax lost the momentum seen earlier in March and moved back into line with the broader market. The key shift came from bunkers, which eased materially. This removed one of the few recent supports for freight, particularly in weaker basins where owners had relied on fuel costs to defend levels. At the same time, Atlantic grain regions remain oversupplied with prompt tonnage, keeping pressure on rates. Macro conditions remain complex. Disruption in the Middle East continues to affect routing and pricing visibility, while fertiliser dynamics are beginning to influence grain competitiveness and trade flows. Handysize remained soft, with continued weakness across the Atlantic and some spillover into Europe. The US Gulf is still the weakest region, with a persistent oversupply of prompt vessels and limited nearby cargo. This imbalance continues to weigh on rates and keeps charterers in control. South America is more stable but still under pressure. Grain demand remains present, particularly for early April, but not strong enough to clear the tonnage list. Europe and the Mediterranean also softened, with available ships outweighing enquiry. Activity improved slightly at times, but not enough to change the overall direction. The Black Sea remains functional but lacks depth, with selective demand and ongoing caution around regional exposure. Overall, Handysize continues to face a structural oversupply, with no immediate catalyst for recovery. Supramax remains split by region, but the overall tone is still weak. The US Gulf continues to lead the downside, with long tonnage lists and limited prompt demand keeping pressure on owners. Europe and the Mediterranean show a similar pattern, with insufficient cargo to rebalance supply. In contrast, the South Atlantic is holding up relatively well. Cargo flow remains steady enough to support current levels, making it the strongest Atlantic position. The Black Sea and surrounding regions remain soft, driven by selective demand and limited prompt activity. At this stage, Supramax still lacks a clear floor outside South America, and broader sentiment remains fragile. Panamax softened again this week, losing the relative strength it showed earlier in the month. South America remains the strongest region, supported by the soybean export programme and improving competitiveness into China. However, the premium over other regions has narrowed. The North Atlantic weakened, with earlier support from mineral demand fading and vessel availability increasing again. The US Gulf remains secondary, with steady but unremarkable demand and no clear premium emerging. The Pacific also softened, with weaker demand and sufficient tonnage keeping pressure on rates. Overall, Panamax is no longer outperforming and has joined the broader softer trend. Atlantic Basin Geared segments remain under pressure, particularly in the US Gulf and Europe where oversupply persists. Panamax is also softer, though South America continues to offer the strongest relative employment. Pacific Basin All segments show a softer tone, with limited cargo and balanced-to-long tonnage lists. Panamax has lost some of its earlier support. Indian Ocean Activity remains steady but does not materially tighten supply. The region continues to act as a secondary balancing area. Bunkers and energy Fuel prices eased significantly this week, removing a key support for freight. The bunker spread also narrowed, reducing the relative advantage of scrubber-fitted vessels. Overall, fuel is no longer pushing freight higher. Security and routing Conditions around the Arabian Gulf remain difficult to price. Dry bulk access is still constrained, and the region continues to be treated as higher-risk business. Commodities and trade flows Fertiliser disruption is beginning to influence grain competitiveness. Brazil appears better positioned than the US in soybeans, supporting South American export flows and reinforcing its relative strength. Europe No major new disruptions emerged. Local frictions persist but remain secondary to underlying supply-demand dynamics. Handysize is expected to remain under pressure, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply persists. Supramax continues to face downside risk outside South America, with demand still insufficient to absorb available tonnage. Panamax has lost momentum and is likely to remain range-bound, with South America still providing relative support but not enough to lift the wider market. Across all segments, the tone is softer. With bunker support fading and supply still comfortable, freight is likely to remain under pressure unless demand improves meaningfully.

Agri- Commodities: 16-20/03/26 : Grains started the week under pressure, led by soybeans, which moved sharply lower alongside easing oil prices. Wheat and corn followed the weaker tone, while broader financial markets pointed to improving risk appetite, with equities higher and volatility declining. FX markets remained active ahead of central bank decisions, as the euro recovered and the Russian ruble weakened further. Geopolitics remained central. Mixed signals around US–China relations and the Iran conflict added uncertainty, while strong US crush data failed to support soybeans. Oil prices softened as tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued, easing immediate supply fears. Russian wheat FOB values edged higher, while export inspections showed strong corn and wheat flows but continued weakness in soybeans. Markets were mixed, with wheat extending losses, soybeans stabilizing after Monday’s sharp decline, and corn holding relatively steady. Without continued strength in energy, grains struggled to maintain upward momentum. Oil remained volatile, briefly moving higher on concerns over tanker protection before easing again. Trade developments stayed in focus. The delay of the Trump–Xi meeting pushed expectations for Chinese soybean demand further out. EU wheat exports continued to run ahead of last year, supported by strong . Russian wheat prices firmed alongside a weakening ruble, while Jordan’s tender confirmed steady import demand. Grains turned higher midweek, driven by renewed strength in energy markets. Kansas wheat led gains, supported both by oil-linked momentum and growing concerns over dryness in US HRW regions. Corn followed, with rising fertilizer costs adding to production uncertainty. The geopolitical situation escalated significantly, with strikes on energy infrastructure increasing risks to global supply. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised inflation expectations, highlighting the macro impact of the conflict. At the same time, speculative positioning in wheat and rapeseed continued to build, reinforcing the upward move. Energy markets remained highly volatile, with Brent trading in a wide range before easing on potential US measures to release Iranian crude. European gas prices surged, pointing to higher fertilizer costs, while US energy markets remained more stable. Currency movements added further volatility, influencing the competitiveness of European grains. Policy and supply developments were key. The ECB kept rates unchanged but warned of significant inflation risks tied to prolonged energy disruption. Ukraine signaled a possible expansion in rapeseed area driven by biodiesel demand, while Russian wheat production forecasts were revised higher. At the same time, US export sales weakened notably as higher prices reduced demand, and drought conditions continued to weigh on the US winter wheat outlook. Markets weakened into the end of the week, with Kansas wheat falling sharply on improved weather forecasts. More broadly, grains showed early signs of decoupling from oil, suggesting a shift in market drivers after weeks of strong correlation. Geopolitical tensions intensified further over the weekend, with escalating rhetoric around the Strait of Hormuz keeping energy risk elevated. Inflation concerns continued to build, with ECB officials signaling potential policy tightening if conditions worsen. In fundamentals, French wheat conditions remained strong, while fund positioning showed continued buying in corn but a shift toward selling in soybeans and only limited reduction in wheat shorts.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/03/2026: The dry bulk market showed a more fragmented picture this week. Larger sizes regained some strength on Atlantic-driven demand, while the geared segments continued to soften and Panamax moved into a more constructive but still uneven phase. A key theme now cutting across all segments is macro-driven volatility. Escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East is pushing energy costs higher, influencing bunker pricing, routing decisions, and overall risk appetite. At the same time, commodity flows are beginning to shift at the margins, adding another layer of complexity to positioning. Handysize remained under pressure, with sentiment weakening across most regions. In the Continent and Mediterranean, the market was largely flat, with limited activity and little to drive change in either direction. The balance between cargo and tonnage is no longer tight enough to support higher levels, and owners are increasingly having to match charterer expectations to keep vessels employed. The South Atlantic and US Gulf continued to trend softer. Persistent oversupply of tonnage combined with a lack of fresh enquiry has kept downward pressure on rates. This is now a structural issue rather than a temporary imbalance, and until cargo flow improves meaningfully, the basin is unlikely to stabilise. Asia followed a similar path. Activity remained slow, cargo availability limited, and tonnage lists gradually building. Even where fixing occurs, it is not at levels that shift sentiment. Overall, Handysize is clearly in a corrective phase, with little immediate support visible. Supramax extended its downward trajectory, with weakness now evident across all basins. The US Gulf continues to lead the decline, where a growing list of prompt vessels and limited new cargo have created a strongly charterer-driven environment. The South Atlantic remains sluggish, with insufficient demand to absorb available tonnage. Continent and Mediterranean activity has not provided relief, lacking the volume needed to rebalance the market. In Asia, the tone has also softened further. Rising bunker prices are adding pressure to voyage economics, making charterers more cautious and reducing their willingness to chase tonnage. At this stage, Supramax lacks a clear floor. The combination of oversupply, weak enquiry, and increasing cost volatility suggests further downside risk unless there is a meaningful pickup in cargo flow. Panamax showed more positive momentum this week, although the recovery remains uneven. Atlantic conditions improved, particularly in the north, where vessel clearances have started to reduce prompt pressure. Owners have become more confident, and in some cases are holding back offers or testing higher levels following recent gains. Much of the recent support appears linked to mineral demand, while North Coast South America grain flows are also contributing to stronger sentiment. In the south, activity is improving but still sensitive to positioning and forward visibility. Fixtures are being discussed at firmer levels, but the market has not fully transitioned into a clear upward trend. Asia also strengthened. Increased cargo demand and firmer fixture activity have supported the basin, with both coal and grain flows contributing. Tonnage demand is improving, and charterers are increasingly having to engage more actively to secure suitable ships. Overall, Panamax is the most balanced segment at present. While not strongly bullish, it is showing signs of recovery with both basins contributing, a shift from the earlier two-speed dynamic. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Indian Ocean Bunkers and energy markets Energy markets have moved sharply higher following escalation in the Middle East. Disruptions to oil and gas infrastructure and heightened conflict risk are feeding directly into bunker prices. This is now a primary driver of freight negotiations, widening bid-offer spreads and increasing hesitation in both spot and period markets. Maritime security and routing Security risks around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified significantly. A portion of the global fleet is either delayed or rerouted, effectively reducing available capacity in the short term. This tightening effect is uneven but can provide localized support to freight markets, particularly for longer-haul trades that are directly impacted by rerouting. Commodities and trade flow s There are early signs of shifts in commodity flows. Iron ore cargoes are being redirected toward alternative destinations, while bauxite exports from West Africa are expected to tighten in the near term. Grain markets remain volatile, with input costs rising due to higher fertilizer prices linked to the energy market. These developments are not yet fully reflected in freight rates but are important directional indicators. Policy and regulation Trade policy remains a background factor. Steel protection measures in Europe and the UK, combined with carbon-related regulation, continue to shape long-term trade patterns. In the short term, however, geopolitical risk and energy costs are the dominant drivers. Handysize is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, particularly in the Atlantic where oversupply remains unresolved. Supramax faces continued downside risk unless a clear demand catalyst emerges to absorb excess tonnage. Panamax is best positioned among the segments, with improving fundamentals in both basins, though gains are likely to remain gradual rather than sharp. Across all segments, expect volatility to remain elevated. Bunker costs, security risks, and evolving commodity flows are now as influential as traditional supply-demand fundamentals in shaping market direction.

Agri- Commodities: 09-13/03/26 : Grain markets began the week in an extremely volatile environment as energy markets experienced one of the most dramatic sessions in recent history. WTI crude traded in a roughly $38 range during the day, at one point surging by around 31% before reversing to losses of about 11%. The sharp swings in oil spilled directly into grains, reinforcing the strong correlation between energy markets and agricultural commodities. Political headlines added to the turbulence. Oil briefly turned negative after comments from Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could end soon, while also warning Tehran against disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets showed extreme sensitivity to such headlines, with rapid price reactions across multiple asset classes. Attention also turned to the upcoming United States Department of Agriculture WASDE report, which was expected to contain mostly minor adjustments. Meanwhile, U.S. export inspections showed solid wheat demand and cumulative shipments remained ahead of last year for corn and wheat, while soybeans continued to lag. Markets remained heavily influenced by developments in the oil market. Although volatility was lower than the previous day, WTI still traded within a wide range, continuing to drive sentiment in grain markets. The March WASDE report largely met expectations and did not introduce major surprises, leaving attention focused on upcoming USDA releases scheduled for the end of the month. Energy headlines continued to shape the outlook. Iran was reported to have begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing escalation risks. At the same time, the International Energy Agency considered releasing emergency reserves—potentially exceeding the 182 million barrels released in 2022—in an attempt to stabilize crude prices following the war-related surge. In agricultural trade, EU customs data showed soft wheat exports reaching 16.50 mmt as of March 8, with line-ups suggesting shipments closer to 19 mmt. Tender activity also continued, with Algeria believed to have purchased around 150-200k tons of milling wheat for April–June shipment, while Jordan made no purchases in its latest tender. Grain prices moved higher across the board midweek as oil prices rose again, reinforcing the strong correlation between the two markets. Energy market disruptions continued to dominate the narrative as attacks on vessels in the region forced some oil terminals to suspend operations, while Brent crude climbed back toward $100 per barrel. In response to the escalating supply disruption, the International Energy Agency announced that its 32 member countries would release a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves. The measure represents the largest release in the agency’s history, though it may still fall short of replacing the roughly 20 million barrels of daily oil flows that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz. In Europe, FranceAgriMer lowered its forecast for French soft wheat exports to third countries while raising ending stock estimates to the highest level in years. Meanwhile, speculative positioning remained active in futures markets, with non-commercial investors continuing to add to net long positions in both MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Grains and oilseeds extended their gains on Thursday, although prices retreated somewhat from intraday highs into the close. Rising oil prices remained the dominant driver of speculative interest, with markets reacting to further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicated that three additional foreign ships were hit in the Persian Gulf, adding to earlier attacks on vessels in the same region. Iran’s leadership also stated that the strait would remain closed and warned that the conflict could expand further, increasing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global energy flows. Agricultural fundamentals also saw updates. The U.S. drought monitor indicated that 55% of winter wheat areas were affected by drought as of March 10, far above last year’s levels. In South America, improved rainfall supported crop conditions in Argentina, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintaining its production forecasts for soybeans and corn. Grain markets ended the week with wheat futures rallying into the weekend, supported by rising energy prices and continued short covering by funds. Nearby Chicago wheat contracts gained more than 2.5%, even as the U.S. dollar strengthened and European wheat futures lagged behind the move. Weather concerns also contributed to gains, as a brief cold spell moved south across U.S. wheat areas before temperatures were expected to rebound. Crop conditions and production forecasts were also updated globally. FranceAgriMer reported French soft wheat conditions at 84% good or excellent, while Brazil’s Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento slightly trimmed its forecasts for both corn and soybean production. Positioning data showed strong speculative activity in agricultural futures. Managed money significantly increased its net long position in corn, while soybean net longs reached their highest level in four months. In contrast, funds remained net short in Chicago wheat despite the recent rally. Political developments continued to influence broader market sentiment, as Donald Trump stated that Iran was ready to negotiate an end to the conflict but insisted that any agreement must include a firm commitment to abandon nuclear ambitions and urged other countries to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/03/2026 : Dry bulk sentiment stayed uneven this week. The larger sizes showed some recovery midweek, but the geared segments and Panamax were more mixed, with momentum heavily dependent on basin balance and prompt positioning. In the background, operational risk and cost volatility remain front of mind. Bunker prices have been swinging sharply and the security picture around key transit corridors continues to inject uncertainty into voyage economics and scheduling. Handysize delivered a mixed week, with Europe holding up better than the Atlantic west, and Asia quieter overall. The Continent and Mediterranean remained broadly balanced. Rates looked steady to marginally firmer in some pockets, largely because the cargo to tonnage balance has not deteriorated materially and owners are still able to defend levels when their ships are well positioned. In the South Atlantic and US Gulf, the tone stayed softer. Activity remains sluggish and tonnage lists are still comfortable, so charterers have been able to keep pressure on bids, especially for prompt ships. Owners are generally reluctant to chase the market lower, but without a clearer pickup in fresh demand, it is hard to create sustained upward traction. Asia was another quiet session, with limited fixing flow and a cargo book that has not changed meaningfully. Tonnage availability appears slightly tighter in places, but not enough to flip sentiment decisively. Period interest is still present, though it feels more selective, with charterers focused on optionality given the current volatility. Supramax stayed under pressure, and the market tone weakened across most basins. Continent and Mediterranean activity remained limited and lacked a clear catalyst. In the US Gulf and South Atlantic, the key issue continues to be oversupply of tonnage against insufficient fresh demand. That imbalance has kept rates on a softer trend and limited owners’ ability to push ideas meaningfully. In the Pacific, the tone was hesitant. Charterers have adopted a more cautious approach, in part due to uncertainty around bunker costs and how quickly replacement tonnage can reprice. The general feel is that the market can soften further if fresh cargo does not expand fast enough to absorb the prompt list. Overall, Supramax remains the most fragile of the geared segments right now, with owners needing either a clearer demand pulse or a sharper tightening of open tonnage to stabilise sentiment. Panamax remains split, but with a slightly different flavour than last week. Atlantic fundamentals continue to look soft. Cargo availability is limited and tonnage has been building in the background, which has kept owners under pressure. That said, there are signs the market may be nearing a floor. Bids have started to look a touch more constructive and talk is circulating around firmer ideas for certain fronthaul and trans-Atlantic routes. It is not a reversal yet, but it suggests downside is becoming more contested. Asia remains more nuanced than simply “firm” or “soft.” There is cargo demand, but execution is complicated by vessel arrival windows, size suitability, and the practical value of bunker economics on shorter runs. Charterers continue to hunt for the right ships in the right place, particularly for Indonesia and Southeast Asia patterns, but it is not always straightforward to match requirements. Overall, Panamax has cooled from recent strength, but it is also showing pockets where confidence is returning, especially when prompt supply is not excessive. Handysize: Europe steady, US Gulf and South Atlantic softer on slower demand and comfortable lists. Supramax: Still pressured in US Gulf and South Atlantic due to tonnage length and limited fresh enquiry. Panamax: Weak underlying cargo flow, but early signs that the market is probing for a base as ideas firm slightly on certain routes. Handysize: Quiet but not collapsing, with slightly tighter availability in places. Supramax: Cautious tone, with charterers in wait-and-see mode amid cost volatility. Panamax: More complex market mechanics, with demand present but fixtures increasingly dependent on exact positioning and voyage economics rather than broad sentiment. Activity continues, but it is not yet strong enough to tighten the wider Supramax and Handysize balance on its own. The region remains important for positioning and optionality, especially if routing patterns shift. Bunker prices remain the biggest day-to-day swing factor. Even when freight direction is steady, bunker volatility quickly changes net returns and can widen bid-offer gaps, especially on long-haul or ballast-sensitive trades. This is keeping negotiations disciplined and is encouraging charterers to be more selective about timing and duration. Security risk around the Strait of Hormuz escalated again this week, with multiple incidents involving commercial vessels. The immediate knock-on is higher perceived risk and more sensitivity around insurance and routing decisions. For dry bulk, the impact is usually indirect but meaningful: elevated energy prices, more conservative voyage planning, and a higher risk premium embedded into freight and bunker assumptions. European carbon regulation remains a moving target. Industry groups in Southern Europe are pushing for a slower regional approach and a stronger pivot toward global alignment, while EU measures continue to expand. Even without immediate rate impact, this matters for shortsea and regional logistics costs, which can feed back into minor bulk competitiveness over time. Separately, investment and consolidation in European port logistics and growing uptake of alternative fuels in major hubs signals that operational standards and cost structures are gradually shifting, particularly for owners trading heavily in regulated regions. Grain remains a key pillar of support for Panamax and often helps set the floor in the Atlantic when other stems are thin. Market attention is still on how export programs develop through late Q1 and early Q2, and whether that flow is strong enough to counterbalance the current tonnage build. Handysize should remain relatively resilient in Europe, but the US Gulf and South Atlantic need a clearer pickup in fresh demand to stop the drift. Supramax looks vulnerable near term. Without a demand catalyst, the path of least resistance remains softer, especially where tonnage is long. Panamax is likely to stay rangebound and two-speed. A true Atlantic recovery needs more volume, while Asia will continue to trade on positioning and bunker-adjusted economics rather than sentiment alone.

Agri- Commodities: 02-06/03/26 : Grain markets started the week with strength, briefly pushing wheat and soybeans to new multi-month highs before quickly reversing. Chicago wheat failed to hold above the key $6 level and sold off sharply as the dollar strengthened and U.S. equities recovered. The rapid turnaround highlighted the unstable environment, with volatility remaining the dominant feature as the Middle East conflict continues to shape broader market sentiment. In Europe, the EU crop monitoring service (MARS) reported generally favorable winter crop conditions, though frost risks remain in northern and eastern areas, particularly for barley and rapeseed. Heavy rainfall improved soil moisture across parts of western and southern Europe but also caused localized flooding. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 794k tons of wheat for May–July arrival at $265.61–$283.00/t , exceeding the tender volume initially sought. Markets remained volatile on Tuesday as global stock markets fell and energy prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Iran warned it could block the Strait of Hormuz and respond to tanker traffic, raising fears of a prolonged energy shock. Fuel prices surged and some forecasts suggested Brent crude could climb toward $120–$150 if disruptions persist. In grains, EU soft wheat exports reached 15.77 mmt as of March 1, ahead of last year’s pace, with line-ups suggesting exports could reach around 18.4 mmt. The European Commission made only small adjustments to its balance sheet but reduced its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to 28.5 mmt, raising expected ending stocks. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation unexpectedly increased in February, with higher energy costs and a weaker euro adding to economic concerns. MATIF wheat declined sharply midweek, with the May contract falling back below the psychological €200 level as higher prices reduced EU export competitiveness. Russian wheat prices remained largely unchanged despite geopolitical tensions, and oil markets stabilized slightly on tentative hopes for de-escalation. Elsewhere, geopolitical and trade developments continued to shape market expectations. U.S. officials signaled that the universal U.S. tariff could rise from 10% to 15%, while the Middle East conflict disrupted fertilizer production and shipping in the Gulf. Urea prices climbed as supply risks increased ahead of the planting season, raising concerns for import-dependent buyers such as India, China, Indonesia, and Australia. Thursday trading again reflected the week’s shifting sentiment, with agricultural markets closing higher as concerns about the conflict returned. Oil prices pushed above $80 per barrel for the first time in over a year, and markets continued to assess whether the geopolitical situation would escalate further or stabilize. Fundamentally, U.S. export sales data showed mixed demand signals: wheat sales were relatively weak, corn sales were strong, and soybean sales were modest. The U.S. drought monitor also indicated deteriorating conditions, with 56% of winter wheat areas affected by drought. In Canada, farmers are expected to reduce wheat plantings slightly this season, while Argentina’s corn harvest progressed slowly and soybean conditions improved following recent rainfall. Grain markets ended the week with strong gains as higher energy prices and a broader rotation into commodities supported futures. Chicago wheat led the move and approached its daily limit, driven partly by short covering as funds still held a net short position earlier in the week. Geopolitical developments continued to dominate sentiment. Iran rejected calls for surrender and fighting in the region intensified, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting energy prices. At the same time, French crop conditions remained stable, Tunisia purchased wheat and durum in its latest tender, and positioning data showed funds shifting exposure across major grain markets. Meanwhile, U.S. labor data pointed to a weakening job market, adding another layer of uncertainty to an environment already shaped by rising inflation and geopolitical risk.

Weekly Freight Recap: 03/02/2026 : Dry bulk sentiment stayed mixed this week. The larger sizes cooled slightly after a strong run, but the geared segments held a firmer tone and Panamax continued to show a clear Atlantic versus Pacific split. Activity levels were decent, yet the market is still being steered by regional positioning, prompt list tightness, and a heavier risk premium in voyage economics as energy and security headlines remain volatile. Handysize kept a positive undertone. The Continent and Mediterranean continued to trade actively with owners generally able to defend levels, suggesting the cargo to tonnage balance remains healthier than it has been in recent weeks. In the South Atlantic and US Gulf, the market looked more balanced than bullish, with enough tonnage available to prevent a sharp step up, but not so much that charterers could fully dictate terms. Asia remained supportive. Steady cargo flow and tightening availability in parts of the region helped maintain confidence, and period interest continues to sit in the background, providing owners with an alternative to pure spot exposure. Overall, Handysize is not overheating, but it is showing resilience and a willingness from owners to hold ground when their position allows. Supramax was steady to firmer with the Atlantic still looking healthy and Asia showing improved activity. In the Continent and Mediterranean, volume was not spectacular, but sentiment stayed firm and rates only adjusted marginally on certain lanes. The US Gulf saw a fresh lift in demand, although the tonnage picture still looks on the long side, which should cap runaway upside unless the flow of new cargoes persists. The South Atlantic maintained a constructive feel as cargo interest returned, supporting owners’ confidence. In Asia, fundamentals improved slightly as more cargo entered the market. North Pacific and backhaul ideas were being tested at levels above previous business, which is usually a good sign that charterers are no longer fully in control of the conversation. Period enquiry remains present and is helping reinforce the floor, even if it is not driving the spot market day to day. Panamax remains split between the basins. Atlantic: The tone eased as fresh enquiry thinned and prompt availability grew. Transatlantic activity looked quieter and sentiment more cautious, with owners under pressure when they are not well positioned. That said, there are still pockets of support from South America and occasional firmer fronthaul ideas on forward dates, but overall the Atlantic is struggling to tighten meaningfully. Pacific: In contrast, the Pacific stayed firmer. Better cargo flow and tighter prompt tonnage kept owners in a stronger negotiating position, and both backhaul and fronthaul routes showed signs of firming. Indonesia and Australia continue to provide the backbone of demand, and the market has so far absorbed ballasters without losing its footing. Net, Panamax is improving, but the improvement is concentrated in the Pacific rather than broad-based. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Indian Ocean Bunkers and voyage economics Fuel costs have risen sharply in several key hubs, which is starting to show up in charterer calculations and voyage selection. Higher bunkers typically hit marginal trades first, and they can quickly widen the gap between owner and charterer ideas, especially on long-haul routes. Security and routing risk Geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to add friction to global shipping, with heightened uncertainty around transit risk and insurance appetite. Even where policy measures are discussed to support transit, the practical impact is limited if threats persist. The knock-on effect for dry bulk is indirect but real: higher energy costs, wider risk premia, and more sensitivity to routing decisions. For some commodity flows, longer voyages via the Cape of Good Hope are becoming a more realistic planning assumption, which can tighten tonnage availability in specific corridors and change regional supply patterns. Cargo watch Grain remains one of the more reliable supports for Panamax demand, and as South American export programs ramp up seasonally, the market will watch whether Atlantic softness can be absorbed by stronger positioning and forward volume. In Asia, ongoing policy messaging around industrial output and raw material demand can shift sentiment quickly, but it needs to translate into sustained cargo flow to matter for freight. Handysize should stay supported, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, as long as lists remain controlled and period interest continues to provide a safety net. Supramax looks constructive with a firmer floor, but sustained upside will depend on whether US Gulf demand persists and whether Asia continues to pull tonnage out of the prompt lists. Panamax is likely to remain two-speed. The Pacific can keep pushing, but the Atlantic needs either a clearer demand catalyst or a sharper reduction in prompt supply to turn the basin convincingly. Near term, expect continued volatility driven by positioning, fuel costs, and security risk rather than a smooth trend in either direction.

Agri- Commodities: 23-27/02/26 : Financial markets started the week under pressure amid uncertainty over US tariff policy. Ag markets closed mixed but mostly lower. Corn managed small gains on strong US exports, while wheat paused after its recent rally. Attention centered on Algeria’s tender, with results expected later in the day. The EU warned that Trump’s new global tariff could push duties on some EU exports above the 15% cap agreed in the trade deal, prompting the European Parliament to pause approval pending clarification from Washington. US winter wheat ratings in Texas and Oklahoma remained below last year despite slight improvements, and little precipitation is forecast for the Plains. Weekly US export inspections showed corn and wheat exceeding expectations, while soybeans disappointed. Additional support for corn came from a USDA flash sale to Colombia. Meanwhile, MATIF futures in USD have risen toward Russian export levels, narrowing the spread with Black Sea offers on an FOB basis. Markets lacked clear direction and closed mixed. MATIF wheat briefly retested recent highs before pulling back, while traders monitored fund positioning data for signs of short covering. Algeria purchased soft wheat for H2 April–May shipment at higher prices than its January tender, while Jordan made no purchase. EU soft wheat exports continued to advance, with official data at 15.38 mmt, though indications suggest volumes are already significantly higher. China returned from Lunar New Year holidays, and rumors of renewed PNW soybean interest lifted prices. Weather models introduced potential relief for the US Plains in the 8–16 day window. Meanwhile, confusion persisted around Trump’s new global tariff rate, which took effect at 10% despite earlier references to 15%, as China signaled it would assess its response ahead of further trade talks. Wheat remained under pressure but only surrendered part of last week’s rally, while soybeans pushed to new highs. Market drivers continued to revolve around US-Iran tensions, tariff developments, potential Chinese buying, and intermittent weather concerns. Algeria reportedly secured around 600k tons of soft wheat, likely sourced from the Black Sea region. Fund positioning confirmed heavy short covering in MATIF milling wheat, while non-commercial participants expanded their rapeseed net long. Attention also shifted to energy markets, as OPEC+ signaled it may raise output in April. The correlation between Brent crude and Chicago wheat has strengthened notably in recent months, reinforcing the cross-market influence of geopolitical risk. Another volatile session saw Chicago and MATIF wheat break a three-day losing streak, while Kansas wheat extended its decline. Soybeans were choppy but ended with limited losses. Support stemmed from Saudi Arabia’s GFSA tender for May–July arrival, which will offer an early indication of new-crop pricing. India also faces an unusually hot March, raising risks for wheat and rapeseed yields. US export sales disappointed across wheat, corn, and soybeans, with old-crop wheat sales notably weak. Corn found partial support from a USDA flash sale to Japan. Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva showed progress but no agreement, while preparations for a potential Trump–Xi summit appear delayed, adding another layer of uncertainty to trade relations. Grains moved higher, led by US wheat, as geopolitical tensions rather than fundamentals drove sentiment. The US and Israel attacked Iran, killing its supreme leader, prompting retaliatory strikes and severe disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker flows slowed sharply as shippers paused routes through Hormuz and the Red Sea, intensifying volatility across oil and grain markets. OPEC+ agreed to raise output more than previously expected, while French wheat ratings declined for a second week but remained above last year’s levels. USDA reported additional corn flash sales, and US insurance price averages now show soybeans offering relatively stronger planting incentives than corn. Managed money executed massive short covering in Chicago wheat, reducing the net short to its smallest level since 2022, while soybean net longs approached a five-year seasonal extreme. Rising Brent prices have provided continued momentum for grains, with Chicago wheat recently matching soybeans as one of the stronger performers year-to-date.

Weekly Freight Recap: 26/02/2026 : Headline indices are sending mixed signals. The composite dry index has softened slightly compared with last week as Capesize corrects, but the picture in our space is clearly firmer: Panamax, Supramax and Handysize averages have all moved higher through late February, with the sharpest daily gains on the geared indices in the last couple of sessions. Against that backdrop, the Atlantic is splitting by size and basin. ECSA and US Gulf geared tonnage is tightening, particularly on Handysize and select Supramax routes, while Atlantic Panamax is under pressure where North Coast South America and US Gulf grain enquiry is still thin. In contrast, the Pacific is doing more of the heavy lifting for Panamax and is now providing a solid floor for Supramax and, increasingly, for Handysize after the Lunar New Year lull. For agri flows, this is a constructive but very positional market: strong South Atlantic grains are pulling freight up from a tight base, while Europe, the Black Sea and parts of the US Gulf remain much more price sensitive. Handysize has quietly become one of the relative winners over the past week. The Baltic Handy index and the associated time charter average have pushed higher again, with the biggest daily improvements on the Americas and intra Far East routes. Supramax has flipped from laggard to leader over the last few days. The Baltic Supramax index and the composite time charter basket have jumped noticeably, with particular strength on US Gulf to Atlantic, US Gulf to Far East and South China to India routes. Panamax remains a two-speed market. For agri flows, that means ECSA and Pacific load programmes are increasingly the drivers of Panamax earnings, while US Gulf and North Atlantic grains are still playing catch up. ECSA   South America is now centre stage for grains. Brazilian soybeans are moving into their main export window and Argentine corn prospects remain favourable, pointing to a solid multi month run of long-haul cargoes into Europe, North Africa and Asia. That is already visible in firmer sentiment on Panamax ECSA fronthaul and in the aggressive Handy and Supramax ideas from Recalada and North Brazil, where owners know they can triangulate into a strong US Gulf or West Coast South America position afterwards. Bunker prices in Singapore are drifting slightly lower from recent peaks but remain high in absolute terms, limiting the room for owners to discount long haul freight without eroding returns. Asset markets remain firm. Allied value benchmarks show five year old Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Handy units all priced well above their five year averages, with recent secondhand deals for modern Japanese geared tonnage clearing at healthy premia. Period rates for our focus sizes have moved up in parallel with spot, especially for Supramax and Handysize, which is consistent with the firmer Americas outlook and the tightening feel into Q2. On the policy side, Russian wheat’s loss of some price edge to EU origin and continued heavy tendering by North African buyers keep trade flows dynamic between Black Sea, EU and South America. The broader geopolitical backdrop remains noisy, but nothing in the last week has fundamentally altered the grain freight landscape. Into March, the freight story for grains looks broadly supportive but uneven by region and size: For grain merchants and regional originators, this argues for continuing to buy freight opportunistically: lean into Continent and Med softness where stems are flexible, but do not expect cheap cover out of ECSA or on US Gulf Handies in the near term. For asset light operators, the clearest near-term upside still lies in disciplined exposure to Panamax on ECSA and Pacific grains, paired with selective geared cover in the Americas where the size premium remains in their favour.

Agri- Commodities: 16-20/02/26 : With the US on holiday, MATIF wheat traded in narrow ranges on thin volume, while CBOT reopened lower as Friday’s negative tone carried over. Weekly US data releases are delayed by one day. According to IKAR, Russian 12.5% wheat for March shipment rose slightly week on week. Morocco expects its cereals harvest to nearly double after a very wet winter, though storms have congested major ports and left around 70 wheat vessels waiting. USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum (Feb 19–20) is set to outline the first major “US corn vs soy” narrative ahead of planting. China remains largely absent due to Lunar New Year holidays, while new US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva face low expectations ahead of the February 24 invasion anniversary. Soybeans posted small gains, supported by expectations of further Chinese demand and strong US crush data, while corn and wheat corrected lower. Geneva talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended day one without visible progress. The European Commission updated EU export data, lifting soft wheat exports above last year’s level, partly due to a reclassification from durum. US export inspections showed solid corn demand and record January soybean crush from NOPA, reinforcing strength in domestic processing. Jordan passed on its latest wheat tender. Markets were broadly firmer, led by US wheat as short covering accelerated amid geopolitical headlines and crop concerns. Soybeans faded intraday gains. Ukraine warned that ice crust damage could threaten winter crops following rapid temperature swings. Ahead of the Agricultural Outlook Forum, analysts projected lower US corn acreage and higher soybean plantings for 2026. Oil prices jumped after US-Iran tensions intensified, while Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva ended abruptly with key territorial disputes unresolved. Fed minutes showed policymakers divided, preferring to pause rate cuts for now. Wheat extended its rally, breaking above key technical levels as short covering continued. US futures led gains on weather concerns, and MATIF milling wheat moved out of its recent range on strong volume. USDA’s Outlook Forum projected planted area broadly in line with expectations. Corn ending stocks are seen tightening in 26/27, while soybean and wheat stocks remain stable. The US drought monitor showed nearly half of winter wheat areas affected by drought, while wildfires in the southern Plains underscored rising weather risks. Wheat posted a third consecutive strong gain, with funds reducing remaining short exposure. May MATIF reached a three-month high, while Chicago climbed to levels not seen in several months. Corn followed higher, while soybeans slipped on US tariff headlines. FranceAgriMer reported French crop ratings still well above last year despite a weekly decline. US export sales showed steady corn demand and softer wheat sales. Argentina’s rains improved crop conditions. The US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s global tariffs, prompting a temporary 15% tariff response under Section 122 ahead of the March 31 Beijing summit.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/02/2026 : The dry bulk market opened the week with a generally subdued tone, influenced by ongoing Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and mixed regional sentiment. While the Atlantic basins showed pockets of resilience across segments, Asian activity remained muted with limited fresh enquiry and ample tonnage supply. Panamax displayed a clear Atlantic–Pacific divergence, and period interest provided selective support in both Panamax and Supramax. Broader market commentary points to firm grain exports and constructive expectations for Q1, particularly in Panamax and Capesize. Handysize experienced another lacklustre session, as widespread Lunar New Year holidays continued to weigh on Asian demand. Sentiment in Asia remained weak, with limited fresh enquiry and plentiful vessel availability. In contrast, the Atlantic showed firmer undertones. Brokers reported sustained interest from the Continent, and demand from East Coast South America was described as fairly healthy, although some felt that a ceiling may have been reached. The US Gulf remained firm, though fresh fixing information was limited. Fixtures reflected selective Atlantic activity. The ASL Leban fixed from Aratu for two to three laden legs with Atlantic redelivery at $19,000, while the Lila II was rumoured on subjects from Sfax for a Black Sea trip in the low teens. Despite mixed fundamentals, the 7TC average closed up $146 at $12,492. The Supramax sector continued in a muted vein, with limited fresh enquiry across key regions. In the US Gulf, the recent push lost momentum and brokers reported that lower numbers were being discussed. The South Atlantic was described as finely balanced, with fronthaul interest showing signs of slowing. The Continent and Mediterranean remained relatively supportive, though fresh fixing information was scarce. In Asia, activity was mixed, with some coal and minor bulk business reported, but overall momentum remained patchy amid holiday disruptions. Atlantic fixtures included grain, steel, scrap and cement runs, while Indian Ocean business featured coal and manganese ore with ballast bonuses attached. Period activity showed signs of picking up, with a few fixtures reported for short period up to one year. The 11TC average edged down $45 to $15,092. Panamax began the week with a pronounced Atlantic–Pacific split. In the Atlantic, momentum eased as activity slowed and prompt demand softened. Vessel supply became more evenly balanced, sentiment turned cautious, and bid–offer gaps widened. Fronthaul and East Coast South America activity remained subdued, and rates on major routes appeared to be levelling out, with P1A slipping further. By contrast, the Pacific continued to show renewed strength despite the holiday period. Steady cargo flow, tight prompt availability in parts of Asia and improving period interest underpinned a firmer tone. Gains in P3A reflected this regional support, while the strengthening environment also lent support to the backhaul market, with P4 moving higher. A period fixture was reported for the Mint for six to eight months in the $19,000s. The P5TC average closed higher at $16,132. Overall fundamentals were described as healthy, with expectations that Pacific strength could carry into a more constructive post-Lunar New Year environment. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Surge in grain exports gives dry bulk a good start to the year According to analysis from BIMCO, 2026 has started strongly for global grain transport. Total grain exports rose by 15% in the first six weeks of the year, driven in particular by a 30% increase in global soybean exports and a 17% rise in wheat exports. The trade agreement between the US and China contributed to a 26% year-on-year increase in US soybean shipments and a resumption of sorghum shipments. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to rise to a record 180 million tons, corresponding to around 42% of global production. BIMCO noted that smaller vessel segments, particularly Panamax, have benefited from the export surge during an otherwise weaker period linked to lower Chinese imports. Panamax rates were reported significantly higher year-on-year. Looking ahead, grain shipments are forecast to rise 5–6% in 2026, though uncertainties remain around wheat planting and Brazilian maize output. Dry freight bull run may continue on expected trade growth Data from S&P Global showed that dry bulk freight rates strengthened in Q4 2025, defying typical seasonal softness. The Platts Capesize T4 Index averaged $26,913 per day in Q4, well above the previous year, while the Platts KMAX9 Panamax Index also recorded substantial year-on-year gains. The Capesize segment was supported by strong iron ore and bauxite volumes, particularly from West Africa. Increased output from Guinea, including the Simandou project, is expected to help offset seasonal weakness in Brazilian iron ore exports during Q1. Market participants suggested that higher West Africa volumes could reduce earnings volatility. In Panamax, robust Indonesian coal demand and strong grain exports from the Pacific Northwest and Australia underpinned Q4 gains. Market sources expressed confidence that momentum may continue into Q1 2026, supported by Chinese soybean buying and the start of Brazil’s new harvest exports. Some participants noted the potential for a cape-split effect if Capesize rates remain firm. In Supramax, market participants indicated that Chinese coal demand is expected to remain supported through winter, with pre-Lunar New Year buying activity potentially providing short-term strength, though some cautioned that thermal coal demand alone may not sustain the segment through the entire quarter.

Agri- Commodities: 09-13/02/26 : Monday The week started with prices mostly in the red, as the recent soybean rally appeared to lose momentum in a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact reaction. USDA confirmed private sales of 264k tons of US soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery, yet prices still moved lower. Weekly US export inspections showed solid corn and wheat movement, while soybeans lagged on a year-on-year basis. Russian 12.5% wheat values held steady at $231 for March shipment, acting as a headwind for MATIF amid a stronger euro. In currencies, Chinese regulators reportedly told major banks to limit new purchases of US Treasuries and reduce large positions due to concentration and volatility risks, briefly pressuring Treasuries, lifting yields, and nudging the dollar lower. Tuesday The February WASDE offered few surprises and trading ranges were unusually narrow for a USDA day. US corn ending stocks were cut on stronger exports, while soybeans saw no changes to US supply and demand. Globally, wheat ending stocks were trimmed slightly, and corn stocks came in below expectations, giving corn a mildly supportive tone. Attention now shifts to next week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum for the first official look at new-crop US balance sheets. Jordan purchased 120k tons of milling wheat, and EU soft wheat exports reached 13.43 mmt, with line-up indications suggesting shipments are already nearing 17 mmt. Wednesday Wheat, particularly Chicago, outperformed midweek as funds continued to reduce still-large net short positions. Corn and soybeans were mixed. FranceAgriMer raised French soft wheat exports within the EU but cut third-country exports, increasing ending stocks. Reports also surfaced of a wheat and barley shipment from France to Algeria, potentially marking the first wheat movement since July 2024. USDA reported private corn sales to unknown destinations, while Argentina’s soybean estimate was raised slightly. In the US, January jobs data surprised to the upside with stronger hiring and wage growth, which pressured EUR/USD. Thursday While major US equity indices, metals, and oil markets plunged, agricultural futures closed higher across the board. Chicago wheat reached a 12-week high on continued short covering, although MATIF remained within its broader range. Market sentiment was also influenced by reports that China confirmed it is in talks with the US about a possible April Trump visit to Beijing, with both sides considering extending their trade truce and potentially rolling back tariffs for up to a year. CONAB adjusted Brazil’s crop estimates, trimming corn slightly while raising soybeans, and US weekly export sales showed another strong week for corn. Friday Grains ended Friday mostly lower, though the complex still posted weekly gains. Wheat faced pressure from improved French crop ratings and IKAR raising Russia’s 2026 wheat production forecast to 91 mmt. India approved exports of 2.5 mmt of wheat and 0.5 mmt of wheat products, though its competitiveness remains limited. The CFTC report showed a sharp increase in the soybean net long following renewed talk of additional Chinese demand. Corn shorts were reduced, while Chicago wheat’s net short increased slightly before likely being trimmed later in the week.

Agri- Commodities: 26-30/01/26 : Monday Prices started the week lower across the board, led by US wheat. Weather-risk fears that pushed prices higher late last week eased, as winterkill damage is historically difficult to evaluate and often fades quickly from focus. CBOT weakness came despite further USD softening, suggesting the prior rally had been stretched. IKAR reported Russian wheat values for early March slightly higher on the week. US export inspections were mixed, with corn and wheat running ahead of last year while soybeans continued to lag, though still near a normal pace. There is renewed risk of another US government shutdown later this week, which could again disrupt official data releases. Tuesday EUR/USD continued to surge on Tuesday, likely driving the divergence between European and US wheat futures. Outside of FX, the session was mixed, with no clear directional trend across grain markets. EU customs data showed soft wheat exports broadly in line with last year when adjusted for the reporting period. On tenders, Tunisia issued new buying interest for both soft wheat and durum, while Jordan passed on its milling wheat tender. USDA also reported additional private export sales to unknown destinations. Wednesday Chicago wheat strengthened sharply midweek, rising on heavy volume after breaking a key technical level. While the weaker dollar may have contributed earlier, it had already firmed by the CBOT close. After attracting demand in recent weeks, US wheat is again testing its competitiveness in export markets. Tunisia confirmed purchases of both soft wheat and durum at international prices, while Jordan again made no purchases. Positioning data showed funds continuing to reduce short exposure in MATIF wheat, though price gains remained limited. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, signaling a pause while awaiting further economic data. Thursday US wheat futures extended gains for a third consecutive session, supported by technical buying and continued short covering. CBOT wheat remained among the most heavily shorted grains, while MATIF also moved higher as EUR/USD stabilized. Corn and soybeans finished mixed with only modest moves. US export sales were solid across all three major grains, with wheat at the upper end of expectations.The European Commission made small adjustments to EU grain balances, mainly through exports and feed use. In South America, crop ratings for Argentina’s corn and soybeans declined further, highlighting ongoing weather sensitivity. Friday MATIF wheat stood out on Friday, ending the month on a firm note. The nearby contract rose sharply on very strong volume, supported by a weaker euro and likely rolling activity into deferred positions. A firmer dollar weighed modestly on CBOT wheat, though losses were limited compared with other commodity markets. The US federal government partially shut down after Congress missed the budget deadline, though the disruption is expected to be short-lived. Weekly positioning data confirmed continued short covering in Chicago wheat, alongside net buying in corn and soybeans.

Weekly Freight Recap: 29/01/2026 : The market carried a more constructive tone this week, but it was still shaped by winter operating conditions and selective demand rather than broad-based strength. Weather disruption in the North Atlantic created short-lived tightness and pockets of spot demand, while the Pacific remained more subdued and generally unchanged. Overall, activity was steady, but charterers were more measured, and owners with prompt positions were less willing to chase cargo aggressively. Handysize improved on the week with a firmer undertone in both basins, driven by a better cargo to tonnage balance in key Atlantic areas and slightly tighter lists in parts of Asia. The South Atlantic and US Gulf showed the clearest confidence, supported by improved cargo flow and fewer prompt ships in the most competitive positions. Continent and Mediterranean trading stayed steady, with rates largely tracking last done ideas as demand and supply remained broadly balanced. In Asia, the upside was modest but noticeable, with slightly stronger bidding and tightening lists in parts of the region. The overall picture was positive, but still not one of a runaway rally, more a healthier tone with owners defending levels where positioning allowed. Supramax started the week on a steadier footing, supported by improving sentiment even though fundamentals did not change dramatically. The Atlantic remained mixed. Mediterranean and Continent demand was present but largely met by available tonnage, keeping the market balanced. The US Gulf looked steadier, with some market talk suggesting a floor may be forming after prior weakness, although confidence is still fragile. The South Atlantic continued to feel positional, with limited fresh enquiry preventing a stronger bounce. In Asia, the market remained supported in the north, and there were hints of better enquiry further south, though tonnage supply still looks sufficient to cap rapid gains. The Indian Ocean continued to provide employment opportunities, but the flow did not materially tighten the wider basin. Panamax steadied after last week’s weather-led volatility in the North Atlantic. Poor weather caused delays and briefly tightened prompt supply, which helped owners with open tonnage capture firmer business, particularly on transatlantic grain. As conditions normalized, the market moved into a calmer, more balanced posture. Atlantic activity remained steady, with grain continuing to outperform minerals and owners showing limited urgency despite tonnage still being available. East Coast South America remained supported into forward positions, but without a clear breakout. In Asia, sentiment stayed subdued. South Pacific mineral demand was limited, and the Pacific overall remained broadly unchanged. Activity was more centered on North Pacific grains and forward Indonesia stems, with little impact on ballasting patterns toward East Coast South America. The tone improved week on week, but gains remained selective rather than market wide. Atlantic Basin Handysize and Supramax saw the most constructive signals in the South Atlantic and US Gulf, where cargo support and tighter lists improved confidence. Continent and Mediterranean remained steady across the geared sizes, with limited fresh impetus but a stable clearing pace. Panamax in the North Atlantic benefited from the residual effect of weather disruption and transatlantic grain demand, though charterers became more cautious as the week progressed. Pacific Basin Geared markets held a steady to slightly firmer tone in places, but overall fundamentals remained soft, with tonnage still available and charterers able to remain patient. Panamax conditions were largely unchanged, with limited South Pacific mineral support and demand focused more on North Pacific grains and Indonesia. Indian Ocean Supramax activity was sufficient to place ships, but the region did not generate enough incremental pull to tighten availability materially or shift wider sentiment on its own. Weather and operations North Atlantic weather was the main operational factor this week, causing delays, tightening prompt supply temporarily, and creating short bursts of demand. This supported sentiment early on, but the effect faded as the market returned to a more balanced rhythm. Bunkers and costs Bunker prices showed a firmer bias across key grades in major hubs, adding a bit of cost pressure into voyage calculations. In a market that is only selectively improving, this tends to sharpen charterers’ focus on net returns and keeps negotiations disciplined. Commodities and trade flow watch Grain demand remains a key support pillar, with Atlantic grain continuing to outperform mineral stems in Panamax trading. Market chatter also points to active planning around South American soybean supply and forward grain programmes, which will matter for positioning into the next leg of the season. On the macro side, the approach of Lunar New Year in Asia is again influencing steel and iron ore sentiment, keeping parts of the Pacific more cautious. Handysize should remain supported where Atlantic lists stay tight, but upside will still rely on sustained cargo flow rather than sentiment alone. Supramax looks closer to stabilization, particularly if the US Gulf holds its perceived floor and Asia continues to show steady enquiry in the north. Panamax is likely to trade in a steadier range near term. Atlantic grain can keep the basin supported, but the market will need either a clearer Pacific catalyst or a renewed tightening of prompt tonnage to push meaningfully higher.

Agri- Commodities: 19-23/01/26 : Monday With the U.S. on holiday, Paris futures traded on their own and were fairly muted despite a stronger EUR/USD and limited EU participation in recent North African tenders. The MATIF wheat H/K carry continued to shrink as U.S. markets reopened largely unchanged. Trump said he may slap a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, while also reiterating his intent to take control of Greenland. Saudi Arabia exceeded expectations in its latest wheat tender, lifting total known purchases close to USDA’s full-year import forecast, while Algeria sourced additional milling wheat, likely from Argentina. Russian wheat FOB prices firmed on the week. EUR/USD rebounded from the 200-day moving average, a level it has not closed below since March 2025. Tuesday Risk-off sentiment dominated as Greenland tensions escalated, weighing unevenly on grains. Wheat futures led declines, while corn proved more resilient, and a weaker dollar failed to offer support. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Greenland-linked tariff threats violate last July’s U.S.–EU trade deal, with EU leaders preparing possible retaliation. India approved a one-time export quota for wheat flour products, though the broader grain export ban remains intact. Jordan returned to the market for milling wheat, while EU soft wheat exports continued to trail last year. now suggest shipments closer to the season’s upper expectations. U.S. export inspections remained firm across all major grains. Wednesday With little fresh fundamental news, markets took direction from geopolitics and Davos headlines. Grains finished flat to lower, while oilseeds edged higher. U.S. stocks rebounded after Trump said he would not use military force to acquire Greenland, later signaling a pause on new tariff threats. USDA confirmed additional corn sales, while Jordan failed to secure barley in its latest tender. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China has met the soybean purchase milestone, reinforcing demand narratives. Funds continued trimming short exposure in MATIF wheat, even as nearby prices softened. Thursday The pattern flipped as U.S. wheat and corn gained on fund short covering tied to weather risks in both the U.S. and Russia, while soybeans lagged. MATIF wheat underperformed, pressured by a stronger euro and competitiveness concerns. EU lawmakers moved to restart ratification of the EU–U.S. trade deal after Trump backed away from tariff threats. The U.S. export sales report was delayed, though early indications pointed to solid corn and soybean demand. USDA confirmed additional soybean sales. In South America, Argentine crop ratings deteriorated amid heat and dryness, while cold forecasts across U.S. winter wheat areas raised concerns where snow cover is thin. Friday Grains finished the week strong, led by a sharp rally in U.S. wheat on short covering, weather risks, and robust export demand. Corn and soybeans followed, supported by a sharply weaker dollar. Corn posted its strongest weekly export sales pace in years, while wheat demand rebounded after recent price declines. Record-breaking cold, snow, and ice swept across much of the U.S., increasing winterkill risk in exposed wheat areas. Funds adjusted positions across corn, soybeans, and wheat as volatility picked up. EUR/USD surged back toward recent highs as the dollar weakened sharply into the weekend.

Weekly Freight Recap: 22/01/2026 : Atlantic: Atlantic: Panamax sentiment continued to improve through the week as demand steadily absorbed prompt tonnage and reduced charterers’ optionality. Trans-Atlantic activity firmed further, with owners increasingly confident and less inclined to chase employment, reflecting a tightening supply backdrop. Grain cargoes remained the primary driver of strength, consistently outperforming mineral alternatives and reinforcing a positive price bias. Fronthaul interest stayed supportive, encouraging owners to hold firm on ideas as charterers faced fewer competitive options. While some tonnage remains visible across the Continent and Mediterranean, the balance is clearly shifting, with owners showing patience and limited urgency to fix. This dynamic has translated into incremental upward pressure on rates and a more constructive negotiating environment as the market moves deeper into late winter. Pacific: Pacific: In the Pacific, Panamax rates extended their recovery despite uneven commodity flows in certain sub-regions. Limited mineral demand was offset by broader sentiment gains, with Atlantic strength increasingly influencing Pacific pricing. Charterers were required to improve bids to secure modern tonnage, particularly on shorter-haul business, as owners weighed the option of repositioning toward stronger Atlantic opportunities. This competitive tension supported rate resilience and improved confidence. Fresh regional grain and round-voyage requirements added further momentum, helping to shorten spot lists and underpin firmer expectations. Overall, the Pacific market ended the week on a stronger footing, with sentiment aligned to gradual but sustained rate appreciation. Atlantic: Atlantic: The Supramax market in the Atlantic showed continued improvement, though with some regional divergence. The North Atlantic appeared to stabilize after recent gains, with indications that certain trade lanes may be approaching near-term resistance. Nevertheless, owners maintained a firm stance, supported by a healthy flow of enquiries and thinning tonnage lists. Further south, conditions remained more balanced, with adequate vessel supply keeping rate advances measured. Despite this, sentiment stayed constructive, as failed negotiations and repeat discussions signaled charterers’ growing difficulty in pushing numbers lower. Period interest also contributed to confidence, reinforcing expectations that the floor has moved higher. Pacific: Pacific: In the Pacific, Supramax and Ultramax segments were notably busier, marking a clear improvement in weekly momentum. Cargo flow increased across several routes, tightening availability and giving owners greater leverage. Negotiations increasingly favored owners, with charterers often conceding to firmer, less flexible terms to secure prompt tonnage. While rate ideas still varied widely depending on route and cargo type, the gap between bids and offers narrowed as the week progressed. The market remained sensitive to fresh enquiry, but overall tone was firm, with participants increasingly confident that recent gains are sustainable provided activity holds. Atlantic: Atlantic: The Handysize market delivered mixed but generally positive signals across the Atlantic. Northern regions remained largely steady, with limited fixing activity keeping rates rangebound. In contrast, the South Atlantic continued to outperform, supported by consistent cargo demand and confident owner sentiment. Rates in this region edged higher as charterers faced fewer prompt options and owners tested improved levels. The US Gulf also showed positive undertones despite limited reported fixtures, with expectations gradually rising on both sides of the market. Overall, Atlantic Handysize sentiment leaned firm, particularly where cargo visibility was strongest. Pacific: Pacific: In the Pacific, Handysize activity was quieter, though sentiment improved modestly toward the end of the week. While fixing volume remained limited, charterers showed greater willingness to meet owners’ ideas, reducing resistance seen earlier. This shift supported a more constructive outlook, even as the market awaited clearer demand signals. Owners remained cautious but optimistic, with confidence underpinned by broader strength in larger segments. The Pacific Handysize market closed the week stable to slightly firmer, with sentiment suggesting scope for improvement if enquiry levels increase.

Agri- Commodities: 12-16/01/26 : Monday A major miss on U.S. corn production sent prices down more than 5% on heavy volume as funds sold aggressively following a sharply heavier U.S. corn S&D. With yields raised to a record 186.5 bu/a and feed demand penciled sharply higher for 25/26, the market is now left needing either stronger demand or acreage reduction to prevent the largest ending stocks in decades. Wheat and soybeans held up better, though neither offered bullish surprises. Weekly (as of Jan 8) showed soybeans at 1,530k tons, corn at 1,490k tons, and wheat at 317k tons, with the soybean jump suggesting inspections are picking up. USDA did not confirm rumored soybean sales to China but reported private corn sales to South Korea and unknown destinations. Separately, President Trump announced a 25% U.S. tariff on any country trading with Iran. Tuesday Negative momentum in CBOT futures continued, while MATIF wheat showed relative stability and closed higher. Funds appeared to unwind long positions after U.S. wheat data failed to meet expectations, with Russian FOB values remaining an anchor for European prices. EUR/USD softened slightly but did not appear to be the main driver of divergence. EU customs data showed soft wheat exports at 11.56 mmt as of Jan 11, with vessel lineups indicating shipments exceeding 15 mmt, reinforcing the gap between reported exports and physical flows. USDA reported private soybean sales to China and Mexico, while China’s December soybean imports reached 8.04 mmt, pushing total 2025 imports to a record 111.83 mmt. Oil prices rose on renewed Iran-related geopolitical tensions. Wednesday CBOT futures posted modest gains in a quiet, technically driven session, while MATIF wheat slipped, giving back prior gains. FranceAgriMer made small adjustments to French wheat balances, trimming third-country exports and raising ending stocks slightly, changes that were modest but still relevant for Paris futures. In South America, Argentina’s corn outlook continued to grow heavier, with the Rosario Grains Exchange lifting its estimate to a record 62 mmt. Jordan bought 60k tons of barley at $273.50/t CnF, while USDA reported additional private sales of soybeans to China and corn to South Korea. Funds reduced net shorts in MATIF wheat and rapeseed, though price response remained limited. Thursday Markets were mixed, with soybeans leading gains on signs of solid U.S. demand, while corn dipped despite flash sales as traders weighed recently increased U.S. supply estimates. Wheat split, with MATIF supported by a weaker EUR/USD and Saudi tender activity, while U.S. futures softened on weak export sales. IGC raised its 2025/26 global production forecasts for both corn and wheat to fresh records. In Brazil, CONAB left corn near 138.9 mmt and trimmed soybeans to 176.1 mmt, while local consultancy estimates remained higher. Weekly U.S. export sales showed strong soybean demand, alongside multiple flash sales across corn and soybeans. Oil prices fell sharply as tensions around Iran eased. Friday Wheat and corn finished the week firmer on short covering ahead of the U.S. holiday, with importers such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria stepping in amid bearish sentiment. Attention centered on Saudi tender results, where volumes were seen as just as important as price in gauging demand. Algeria issued a tender for March shipment wheat, while USDA reported further corn flash sales, bringing total weekly sales to 1.82 mmt. Rapeseed found support after Canada and China moved to sharply reduce tariffs on Canadian canola. CFTC data showed heavy fund selling in corn and soybeans following the USDA report, while geopolitical headlines around potential U.S. tariffs on the UK and EU added another layer of uncertainty.

Weekly Freight Recap: 15/01/2026: Mid January finds the dry bulk complex in a split state. Capes are correcting hard after a strong run, which is weighing on headline indices. In the geared and Panamax space that matters for grains, the picture is more nuanced: Panamax is edging firmer, while Supramax and Handysize are drifting lower, particularly in the Atlantic. Allied’s latest weekly summary has Panamax earnings modestly higher week on week, with Supramax and Handysize down by roughly high single to low double digit percentages, which matches daily Baltic prints into 14–15 January. For agri flows, the key friction is timing. South American crop and export signals look increasingly bullish on paper, helped by record Chinese soybean imports last year and upgraded Argentine corn expectations, but the immediate freight reality in the Atlantic is still one of ample prompt tonnage, especially in Continent, Med and US Gulf. Handysize remains the softest of the three focus segments. The global Handy index has eased further this week, and TCE averages are now clearly below recent peaks from late Q4. Atlantic Continent and Baltic: Very much a charterer market. Limited fresh wheat and feed grains enquiry into North Africa and Western Med is meeting long lists of spot tonnage. Owners are either accepting thinner returns on short regional hops or considering ballast toward firmer basins rather than sitting still. Black Sea and East Med: A trickle of grains and minor bulks is moving, but there is no sign of a structural squeeze. Reported fixtures out of Varna and Marmara into the Continent and West Med underline that buyers are still able to secure ships at discounted levels. ECSA: The one relatively balanced pocket. There are steady Handy stems ex Brazil and upriver into the Continent, Med and North Africa, including agri parcels, with numbers still carrying a premium over Continent and US Gulf employment but that premium is narrowing as more tonnage drifts down. US Gulf: Quiet on agri and structurally long on ships. Owners with prompt Handies are shading ideas simply to avoid idle time, especially on shorter USG–EC Mexico and USG–Caribs routes. Pacific The Pacific lists are not extreme, but they are long enough that charterers can resist any attempt to lift levels. Coastal coal, minor bulks and occasional grain rounds out of Japan, Korea and China are there, yet the balance is still soft. Short period deals in the low teens per day, such as reported West Med to Far East redelivery, suggest charterers can still lock in Handy cover close to spot-equivalent economics. For agri clients, this remains a buyer friendly Handy market. The main decision is less about price and more about whether to use Handy at all on marginal stems, or to upsize into Supramax where that segment is also under pressure. Supramax and Ultramax started the year soft and have not really broken that pattern. The Baltic Supramax index is down materially on the week, and daily prints around mid January show flat to slightly negative moves with TCEs hovering in the low tens on the standard basket, below Panamax and only modestly ahead of Handy. Atlantic US Gulf : There are early signs of a floor. Fronthaul coal and grains from New Orleans and SW Pass into the Middle East and Far East are attracting mid teen to low twenty thousand per day type returns, depending on spec and routing, which is better than early January. But it is not tight. Each decent cargo still draws a long candidate list, and one or two positional fixtures do not yet make a trend. ECSA and South Atlantic : Fronthaul Supras on grains and minor bulks into the Med and Asia remain tradable, but the market is lethargic. Panamaxes are absorbing the more attractive longer haul stems, leaving Supras to compete over regional and second tier business. Continent, Med and Black Sea: Charterers clearly in control. Grains into North Africa and East Med, scrap and steels into Turkey and the Levant, plus some fertiliser and project cargo, keep the basin ticking, but anything short or unattractive is priced aggressively by charterers. Pacific and Indian Ocean Indonesian coal runs and Indian Ocean triangulation continue to be the main source of employment, but here too Panamax is taking a bigger share, particularly ex Indonesia into China and India. Supras are still busy on trades between East Coast India, the Gulf and South East Asia, including agri and fertiliser parcels, yet owners are mostly defending existing levels rather than driving them higher. On paper, Supramax FFAs have been active, with prompt months and Q2–Q3 strips trading slightly above current spot, but there has also been selling interest from physical players, which fits with a cautious view rather than a bullish one. Panamax and Kamsarmax stand out as the relatively constructive story this week. The Baltic Panamax index has edged higher compared with last week, and TCE averages are now more consistently in low teen thousands per day instead of flirting with high four figures and low teens. Atlantic Transatlantic: Short mineral TA voyages, particularly from the Continent, still trade at discounted levels. Grain TA employment, especially ex US Gulf into the Continent and Med, attracts a modest premium, reflecting both tonnage repositioning value and tighter laycan windows. ECSA: This is where the tone is clearly improving. Fixtures ex Brazil to the Continent and to Asia are now being discussed at slightly higher returns than early January, both in daily hire and ballast bonus terms. Allied’s weekly figures show Panamax earnings up by a mid single digit percentage on the week, while Supras and Handies slip, which fits with this narrative of larger ships capturing the early improvement. Owners with modern Kamsarmaxes are increasingly weighing whether to ballast into ECSA or hold for strengthened US Gulf or Continent fronthaul, but for now the better risk reward seems anchored in South Atlantic grains. Pacific The post year end owner sell off has largely cleared. Prompt lists in North Asia are slimmer than a few weeks ago, and steady NoPac grains and Australian rounds are giving owners a better base to argue for stable to firmer levels. Indonesian coal is still active, but older tonnage fixing short discounted runs is masking the underlying improvement for better ships. Period appetite remains selective but present, with recent one year business at mid teen levels from North China delivery underlining that some charterers prefer to take cover on Panamax now rather than gamble on cheaper ships later in Q1. Overall, Panamax now looks like the main beneficiary as the South American grain programme starts to show through, both in the Atlantic and eventually in the Pacific through ECSA–Asia runs. ECSA and South Atlantic Crop and export signals are building. Brazilian soybean harvesting is running slightly ahead of its recent average, and Argentine corn forecasts have been lifted to fresh record territory, with further upside possible if expected rains materialise. That points to a solid Q1 and Q2 export programme in volume terms. For now, however, the freight impact is mainly visible in Panamax sentiment and period talk rather than a broad squeeze across all sizes. US Gulf Grain flows remain patchy and are not yet enough to clear the overhang in Handies and Supras. Panamax grain runs are the relative winners, but even there, charterers are still generally dictating structure and timing. Continent, Med and Black Sea Wheat and corn stems into North Africa and the East Med continue, including a noticeable flow of Australian and Argentine wheat to China that frees some Black Sea and other origins to focus on Mediterranean demand. The key message for freight is that this is a positional market rather than a volume driven one. The Black Sea has not yet generated the kind of dislocation or congestion that would tighten freight for our focus sizes. Pacific and Far East China imported a record soybean volume in 2025, driven by heavy buying from South America, and continues to auction state stocks to free up space ahead of further arrivals. That is supportive for tonne miles on ECSA–China routes in the coming months, mostly on Panamax and Kamsarmax, with some spillover into Supras where parceling suits.

Agri- Commodities: 05-09/01/26: Monday Grain and oilseed markets opened the week on a firmer footing, led by CBOT corn and soybeans, while MATIF milling wheat lagged and closed slightly lower. Strength in oil prices and renewed talk of Chinese buying supported sentiment, though wheat prices diverged across the Atlantic as Paris futures worked to preserve export competitiveness. The main headline was reports that China bought up to 1 mmt of U.S. soybeans from both the Gulf and PNW for March–May shipment. If confirmed, total would rise to around 7.5 mmt, with additional volumes listed as “unknown,” while shipments so far remain limited. Tuesday Markets reversed course on Tuesday, with CBOT grains easing while Paris milling wheat moved higher. Broader financial markets sent mixed signals, as U.S. equity indexes pushed to new highs while oil prices gave back part of Monday’s gains. USDA confirmed part of the rumored Chinese soybean buying through reported private sales, though volumes fell short of earlier market talk. In wheat, Jordan purchased milling wheat for March/April shipment at lower prices than in its previous tender. EU soft wheat exports continued to rise, though official customs data became increasingly unreliable, with vessel lineups pointing to higher actual volumes. Wednesday Wheat prices rebounded midweek, led by Kansas wheat. The move coincided with further deterioration in U.S. winter wheat condition ratings and reflected positioning ahead of the upcoming USDA reports, which will include the first estimates for winter wheat seedings. Non-commercial positioning showed a sharp reduction in MATIF wheat shorts, even as prices struggled to hold gains. There was still no official confirmation of additional Chinese soybean purchases, though market reports indicated that further cargoes had been booked. Attention also remained on energy markets, which have started the year at relatively low levels despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, after the US seized two Venezuela-linked oil tankers as part of efforts to control and sell Venezuelan oil. Thursday Grain markets traded mixed on Thursday with limited price movement, suggesting active positioning rather than a lack of participation. Focus was increasingly on Monday’s USDA releases, including WASDE, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings. Export sales during the holiday week were generally weak across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Outside markets also drew attention, with traders watching U.S. jobs data for potential impacts on EUR/USD and, in turn, grain competitiveness. Political headlines added to uncertainty, including renewed discussion around expanded sanctions related to Russian energy exports. Friday Markets ended the week largely unchanged in a quieter session, with attention firmly centered on the upcoming USDA reports. Wheat trade activity was expected to normalize following the end of Russia’s early-January holiday period. Additional soybean sales to China and unknown destinations were reported, lifting cumulative volumes for the week. Updated positioning data showed funds maintaining a large net short in Chicago wheat, while reducing exposure in soybeans. Late in the week, U.S. labor data came in below expectations, and the dollar softened slightly following renewed concerns around Federal Reserve independence, easing pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

Weekly Freight Recap: 08/01/26 : The dry bulk market has eased into the new year with a clear split between sizes. Capes have rolled over, which is dragging sentiment down at the headline level, but the story inside the geared and Panamax space is more nuanced. Panamax feels closer to a gentle early-year rebuild. The worst of the late-2025 owner sell-off in the Pacific has washed through, and enquiry is quietly improving in both basins. By contrast, Supramax and Handysize have started the year on the back foot. Tonnage lists are long, especially in the Atlantic, and enquiry has not yet come back strongly enough to change the balance of power away from charterers. Across all segments, the common thread is that the holidays are over on paper, but the physical market is still behaving as if it is clearing end-year positioning rather than gearing up for a new cycle. Positioning, basin selection and laycan timing matter more right now than any big directional view. Handysize fundamentals look broadly unchanged on paper, but the tone has softened. Benchmarks have stepped down over the first publishing days of the year, with the Atlantic taking most of the strain. In the US Gulf and Caribbean, the lack of fresh cargo and a growing list of prompt ships is forcing owners to lower ideas to keep vessels moving. The Continent and Mediterranean show a similar pattern, with little visible grain enquiry, more owners considering ballast options, and greater willingness to trade off rate for certainty. The South Atlantic is the relative outperformer. East Coast South America still delivers workable levels on grains into the Continent and North Africa, and positional fixtures there are noticeably firmer than in the northern Atlantic. That said, the tone is hesitant rather than bullish, and further tightening depends on a clearer cargo pulse. In Asia, sentiment remains soft. There is some demand for North Pacific grains and coastal coal, but not enough to tighten lists meaningfully. Modern ships with suitable timing find employment at reasonable returns, while older or awkwardly positioned units continue to chase the market. Overall, Handysize is drifting rather than collapsing. The immediate risk is further erosion in weaker Atlantic pockets if fresh grain enquiry does not materialise, while South Atlantic grains remain the primary support. Supramax has carried its late-2025 weakness directly into the new year. The sector remains under pressure in both basins, with indices easing and negotiations firmly charterer-driven. In the Atlantic, limited new enquiry and a large pool of prompt tonnage dominate the picture. US Gulf activity has thinned further, pushing owners into a defensive posture focused on securing employment rather than upside. West Africa and ECSA continue to produce occasional firmer fronthaul fixtures, but these are positional rather than indicative of basin-wide tightening. The Pacific remains cautious. Indonesian coal runs are attracting more Panamax interest, reducing demand for Supramax tonnage. North Pacific rounds and Indian Ocean-linked routes continue to trade, but at levels consistent with a soft first quarter rather than a market floor already in place. On the paper side, Supramax FFAs have seen active trading, with strength in prompt contracts and selling pressure further along the curve. This pattern aligns with owners hedging expected Q1 weakness rather than positioning for a rapid rebound. Overall, Supramax remains in a correction phase. Freight is not in free fall, but demand has yet to reassert control. Panamax has quietly improved in tone after a subdued post-holiday start. Absolute levels remain modest, but momentum has shifted from negative to sideways-to-firmer. In the Atlantic, transatlantic activity remains uneven, while fronthaul is gradually improving. ECSA is the key driver, with charterers paying slightly higher ideas for end-January and early-February loaders as grain enquiry builds and modern tonnage repositions. The US Gulf remains less dynamic, with constructive discussions on longer-haul routes but limited day-to-day fixing. In the Pacific, last year’s aggressive owner selling has largely cleared. Tonnage lists have shortened, and a mix of North Pacific grains, Indonesian coal and regional industrial cargoes is restoring confidence. Modern Kamsarmaxes are achieving workable ranges on NoPac rounds and Indo-linked business, with charterers paying premiums for quality and positioning. Overall, Panamax appears closer to forming a floor than facing renewed downside. While a strong upward move still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, the risk of a sharp correction has diminished. North America / US Gulf The US Gulf remains one of the softer areas across geared sizes. Fronthaul enquiry is intermittent, and transatlantic demand has yet to gain momentum. Charterers remain patient, while owners prioritise coverage over resistance. Panamax sentiment is marginally more constructive than in Supras and Handies, though fixture flow remains limited. Continent–Mediterranean / Black Sea The Continent–Mediterranean region shows mixed signals. There is some early coverage interest, particularly on grain flows into North Africa and intra-Med trades, but this sits within a generally soft market where tonnage availability dictates pricing. Black Sea grains remain part of the background flow without materially altering regional balance. South Atlantic / ECSA and West Africa The South Atlantic remains the most functional Atlantic basin. Grain exports from ECSA continue to underpin Handysize and Panamax demand, while Supra fronthaul from West Africa and the wider South Atlantic still delivers respectable returns. However, increasing nearby coverage and incoming ballasters suggest a cautious rather than tightening backdrop. The Pacific reflects a typical early-January environment that has already absorbed its excess tonnage. Panamax sentiment is supported by North Pacific grains and coal flows into India and Southeast Asia. In contrast, Supramax and Handysize remain under pressure from long lists, with charterers able to wait and owners often conceding first on backhaul and regional trades. The Indian Ocean is active but lacks bullish tension. Trade through the Gulf, India and East Africa continues to provide employment for Supramax and Panamax vessels, and reported fixtures underline steady utilisation. However, the basin is not tight enough to lift adjacent regions and currently acts as a stabilising influence rather than a driver. There are no notable changes in bunker dynamics this week. Fuel costs remain a factor in voyage economics but are not a primary driver of freight direction in a market still shaped by demand and tonnage balance. No new policy shocks are evident. Ongoing themes such as Chinese steel export policy and Indonesian coal taxation remain potential modifiers but do not yet provide concrete explanations for current freight movements in grain-relevant segments. Secondhand market signals indicate continued interest in geared tonnage, though there is no evidence of a significant re-rating in asset values. Flexibility and optionality remain valued, particularly in the 50–80k dwt range, while buyers remain cautious on pricing in a near-term freight recovery. Into the second half of January, conditions are likely to remain thin and positioning-driven, with distinct paths by segment. Handysize and Supramax are expected to stay charterer-led unless regional lists visibly tighten. Early improvement would most likely appear through shorter tonnage lists in the US Gulf and Continent–Mediterranean, or firmer grain activity in the South Atlantic, rather than a surge in enquiry. Panamax and Kamsarmax show clearer signs of stabilisation, with scope for gradual improvement if ECSA grain volumes build and Pacific oversupply continues to ease. A sustained upswing still requires a clearer cargo catalyst, but downside risk appears lower than in recent weeks. For agricultural freight buyers, this supports a pragmatic approach: utilise current weakness in Supramax and Handysize to secure coverage where programmes are firm, and begin layering Panamax cover out of ECSA and selectively from the US Gulf for February and March. For owners and operators, basin selection, triangulation and selective period cover remain more relevant than chasing rallies that have yet to materialise.

Weekly Freight Recap: 18/12/25 : The dry bulk market slid further into a year-end “coverage-first” mindset. Overall fixing volume remained thin, and most negotiations stayed charterer-led as owners showed less resistance to secure employment ahead of the holidays. Forward visibility is patchy, so positioning and prompt tonnage availability continue to matter more than headline sentiment. Handysize trading was generally soft, with limited fresh enquiry and enough prompt availability to keep pressure on levels. The Atlantic saw some tradable pockets, but the tone was still defensive as owners largely prioritised getting ships fixed rather than holding out. In Asia, activity remained muted and list length and positioning was a key driver: where lists built, charterers were comfortable waiting. What stood out this week was how “holiday behaviour” is now shaping the market: even when demand appears, it tends to be quickly absorbed and doesn’t snowball into sustained tightening, because both sides are trying to manage end-of-year exposure rather than chase momentum. Supramax remained under pressure across basins, with subdued enquiry and ample tonnage keeping the market charterer-driven. The Atlantic was active at times but still softer in direction, with a noticeable willingness from owners to adjust ideas to conclude business. The Pacific stayed seasonally weak, and the general expectation in the market is for softness to persist into the holiday window unless a meaningful cargo wave appears. Period appetite also looked reduced compared with earlier weeks, reinforcing the “wait-and-see” feel and limiting the ability for spot sentiment to turn quickly. Panamax continued to trade on the back foot. The core issue remains the same: thin fixing activity gives charterers time, and owners, especially those trying to avoid idle days over the holiday period, are gradually conceding. The Atlantic has shown intermittent support, but not enough to shift control away from charterers, while the Pacific remains seasonally soft with comfortable prompt supply. That said, the market is starting to feel “closer to a base” rather than set up for a dramatic further correction, mainly because sentiment is already cautious and much of the near-term positioning has been adjusted. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Indian Ocean Fuel costs in Singapore showed a softer bias through the week, offering marginal voyage-cost relief, but not enough to change the freight narrative in a demand-light holiday market. Secondhand activity remains steady, with continued interest in geared tonnage, reflecting the market’s preference for operational flexibility when spot visibility is limited. Expect the market to remain thin and position-driven into late December, with charterers retaining leverage unless regional tonnage lists tighten sharply. In Handysize and Supramax, recovery signals are more likely to appear first as “list tightening” rather than as a broad-based demand surge. In Panamax, stabilisation is plausible if Pacific oversupply starts clearing, but a durable move higher probably needs a clearer cargo catalyst rather than year-end positioning alone.

Agri- Commodities: 08-12/12/25 : Monday CBOT markets finished lower ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE, which was widely expected to lack bullish surprises. MATIF wheat was the exception, posting small gains. Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB for January delivery edged up by $0.5 w/w to $227.5/t, according to IKAR. Geopolitical headlines remained in focus after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said US-brokered peace talks remain stalled over security guarantees and control of eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donbas. In the US, USDA reported private sales of 132k tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26. Delayed weekly export sales for the week ending November 6 totaled 462k tons of wheat, 980k tons of corn, and 514k tons of soybeans. Export inspections as of December 4 showed soybeans at 1,018k tons, corn at 1,453k tons, and wheat at 393k tons. The soybean inspection gap versus last year widened further to 10.7 mmt. Tuesday USDA’s WASDE was uneventful, with trading volumes unusually low for a report day. Corn finished about 1% higher, while wheat failed to follow. Soybeans eased on the absence of fresh Chinese buying of US supplies, with sentiment also pressured by Argentina’s move to lower export taxes. COCERAL released its first 2026 EU crop forecasts, projecting wheat at 137.6 mmt, barley at 52.5 mmt, and corn at 58.8 mmt. Argentina announced export tax reductions across major crops. Jordan purchased 60k tons of milling wheat at $263/t CnF for February shipment. EU soft wheat exports reached 10.16 mmt as of December 7, though lineups suggest higher actual volumes. Delayed fund data showed reduced net shorts in wheat and corn and an expanded soybean net long. Wednesday Wheat showed a delayed reaction to the bearish USDA report, with corn also easing. MATIF wheat held up better but faced potential pressure after EUR/USD strengthened post-close. Soybeans stabilized following fresh US flash sales. Jordan bought 120k tons of barley at $272.75/t, the highest price paid so far this season. Additional support for MATIF wheat came from Tunisia issuing tenders for soft wheat, durum, and barley. USDA reported private sales of 136k tons of soybeans to China and 331k tons to unknown destinations for 2025/26, alongside soybean meal sales to Poland. Fund data showed reduced net shorts in MATIF wheat and cuts to rapeseed net longs, while CFTC figures pointed to continued short covering in corn and further expansion of soybean long positions. Thursday MATIF wheat came under pressure from a stronger EUR/USD, while Chicago wheat found support from solid US export sales. Corn and soybeans traded slightly higher in a quiet session. Argentina’s Rosario Exchange raised its wheat production estimate to 27.7 mmt, with harvest progress reaching 60.2%. Brazil’s CONAB updated 2025/26 production estimates, lifting corn slightly to 138.88 mmt and trimming soybeans to 177.12 mmt. Delayed US export sales for the week ending November 13 were strong across all three crops. USDA also reported additional flash sales of soybeans and corn for 2025/26. Tunisia purchased soft wheat, durum, and barley, with barley again priced above wheat. Friday CBOT futures ended the week lower, led by sharp soybean losses and declines in corn. Chicago wheat eventually followed despite modest gains in MATIF wheat. Reports of attacks on Ukrainian ports were largely overlooked by the market. Russia struck ports near Odesa, damaging multiple Turkish-owned civilian vessels, following earlier threats tied to Ukraine’s maritime-drone activity. Argentina formally enacted its export tax cuts. Fresh flash sales included corn to unknown destinations and soybeans to China, but failed to support prices. Fund positioning showed corn flipping to a net long for the first time since May, continued expansion of soybean net longs, and the smallest Chicago wheat net short of the year. Euronext announced plans to extend evening trading hours from February 2, bringing its close closer to Chicago’s.

Weekly Freight Recap: 11/12/25 : The dry bulk market saw a softer overall tone, with Handysize holding largely flat, Supramax weakening across both basins, and Panamax continuing its decline despite some localized Atlantic support. Activity levels remained muted in many regions, with owners increasingly seeking cover ahead of the holiday period. The Atlantic showed mixed signals across segments, while the Pacific faced longer tonnage lists and weaker demand, keeping pressure on rates. The Handysize market remained quiet, with limited new inquiry and a slight softening across most regions. The BHSI slipped to 837, and the 7TC average eased to $15,059. In the Continent–Mediterranean, subdued demand kept rates largely unchanged but under mild downward pressure. The South Atlantic and US Gulf also saw reduced enquiry, creating a slightly weaker tone as open tonnage accumulated. In Asia, sentiment stayed broadly flat, though an extended tonnage list on Southeast Asia–North Asia routes added marginal pressure. No major shifts were reported, and rates continued to track close to last-done levels. Supramax sentiment remained negative, with both basins experiencing softer conditions. The 11TC average fell to $17,760 as owners looked to secure coverage ahead of the holiday slowdown. In the Atlantic, demand eased and rates lost ground, with limited fixtures materializing despite some isolated resistance in the US Gulf. The South Atlantic remained softer amid weaker sentiment. Asia continued under downward pressure, with limited cargo inquiry and a growing list of prompt vessels. The Indian Ocean saw some activity but stayed finely balanced, offering little support for owners. Across regions, rates stayed positional and mostly below earlier expectations. The Panamax market continued to ease, with the Atlantic outperforming the Pacific but still showing signs of losing momentum. The North Atlantic benefitted from tighter prompt supply and stronger coal demand from the US East Coast, alongside reports of Capesize stems being split into Panamax parcels. However, fronthaul expectations diverged as some owners aimed for higher levels. The South Atlantic stayed thin and largely positional, with December retaining a premium while January lacked visibility. In the Pacific, the decline persisted as weak demand, ample spot supply, and softer bids pressured rates across NoPac, Australia, and Indonesia routes. Period activity was limited, and the P5TC average slipped to $15,878. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Germany Expands Federal Survey and Pilot-Transfer Fleet Germany has commissioned four new federal vessels to enhance maritime survey functions and pilot-transfer operations. Two multipurpose survey ships will replace WEGA and DENEB, supporting seabed measurement, underwater-obstacle mapping, and defence-related data provision. Two SWATH pilot-transfer vessels will strengthen operations along federal waterways. The new ships incorporate green methanol capability, dynamic positioning, hydrographic systems, and autonomous survey tools, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2030. Freight article Ukrainian Sea Drones Disable Russia-Linked Tanker in Black Sea Ukraine deployed Sea Baby drones to strike the Suezmax tanker Dashan on 10 December in its exclusive economic zone. The vessel, sailing toward Novorossiysk with AIS switched off, sustained critical stern damage and was left disabled. The attack is the third drone strike on Russia-linked tankers in two weeks, following earlier hits on Kairos and Virat. War-risk premiums and insurer assessments continue to rise as drone activity expands across the region. Freight article

Agri- Commodities: 01-05/12/25 : Monday USDA announced no new flash sales, disappointing soybean markets. Weekly export sales remain delayed and have not yet reached the period covering the US–China trade deal, leaving the true pace of buying uncertain. CBOT corn and wheat eased, while March MATIF wheat posted small gains after finding support at intraday contract lows. ABARES raised Australia’s 2025/26 wheat, barley, and canola output, though the increases were broadly in line with expectations. Algeria’s OAIC issued a soft wheat tender for February shipment, and Russian wheat prices slipped again, with 12.5% FOB for January at $227/t. The delayed US weekly for the week ending October 23 showed 500k tons of wheat, 1,965k tons of corn, and 1,450k tons of soybeans. Export inspections for the week ending November 27 recorded 920k tons of soybeans, 1,421k tons of corn, and 385k tons of wheat, with corn and wheat running ahead of last year and soybeans still lagging. EU foreign policy chief warned the US against pushing Ukraine into a peace deal that favors Russia. Separately, US wheat exports to Nigeria are now more than triple last year’s pace, redirecting demand from traditional suppliers. Tuesday Wheat and corn reversed higher as Black Sea tensions escalated, adding a modest war-risk premium to prices. Soybeans weakened again on the absence of confirmed Chinese demand. A Russian-flagged tanker carrying sunflower oil was reportedly hit by a suspected Ukrainian drone near Turkey, the third incident of its kind in recent days. Argentina’s low-pro wheat was offered around $195/t for January, significantly below US corn. Jordan made no purchase in its wheat tender, while EU soft wheat exports reached 9.66 mmt as of November 30, with lineups indicating closer to 12.2 mmt. A delayed CFTC update showed stronger-than-expected fund buying in corn and soybeans for the week ending October 21. The corn net short fell to 161k contracts, while soybeans flipped to a 35.3k net long. Wheat shorts eased only marginally, remaining heavy at 108.8k contracts. Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.2% in November, with core inflation at 2.4%. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2% at its late-October meeting. Despite geopolitical events, Chicago wheat remains comparatively low and less volatile than in recent years. Wednesday The war-risk premium added on Tuesday unwound quickly, consistent with recent market behavior. Wheat held firmer on Algeria’s large tender results, while corn eased after failing to hold above its 200-day moving average. Soybeans slipped again on the continued absence of flash sales and cautious comments from US officials. Algeria reportedly bought 810–900k tons of wheat for February shipment at about $256/t C&F, marking the largest single-month volume and lowest price since July. Jordan again made no purchase in its barley tender. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the 12 mmt soybean purchase under the US–China trade deal will be completed by end-February 2026 rather than by end-December. Funds turned more bearish on MATIF wheat, expanding their net short to 234.5k contracts as March futures hit new lows. In contrast, non-commercials continued buying MATIF rapeseed, lifting their net long to 38.3k contracts. The euro approached a seven-week high as European activity improved and expectations for US rate cuts weighed on the dollar. Given the stronger EUR/USD, a green close for MATIF wheat was considered a resilient performance. Thursday Price action flipped from the prior day: CBOT strengthened while Euronext weakened. USDA announced new flash sales for corn instead of soybeans, with corn leading gains on the day. MATIF wheat and rapeseed softened in response to Statistics Canada’s larger production estimates. The farm survey put Canada’s wheat crop at a record 40 mmt and canola at 21.8 mmt, both materially above USDA’s previous figures. US weekly export sales for the week ending October 30 totaled 516k tons of wheat, 1,972k tons of corn, and 1,248k tons of soybeans, including previously reported soybean sales to China. Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced to 45.3% complete, with yields averaging 3.92 t/ha and 11.74 mmt threshed. Market attention remained focused on US–China trade flows, South American harvest progress, and the macroeconomic backdrop. Friday Markets ended the week lower, led by soybeans, which fell more than 1% despite a flash sale to China. USDA reported 462k tons sold to China for 2025/26, a volume widely rumored earlier in the week. The upcoming schedule is busy, with USDA’s December report due Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. USDA baseline projections suggest nearly 4 million acres could shift from corn to soybeans in 2026, with corn area potentially dropping from 98.7 million to 95.0 million and soybeans rising from 81.1 million to 85.0 million. Wheat area is projected to decline for a third consecutive year. FranceAgriMer reported French soft wheat ratings at 96% good/excellent. Russia set export duties on all grains at zero for December 10–16. A delayed CFTC report showed heavy fund buying across soybeans, corn, and wheat ahead of the US–China agreement. September core PCE inflation rose 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y, reinforcing market expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut.

Weekly Freight Recap: 04/12/25 : The dry bulk market saw a generally mixed performance, with Handysize remaining supported in the Atlantic, Supramax showing uneven movement across regions, and Panamax continuing its correction as rising vessel supply weighed on sentiment. Atlantic dynamics were split between firmer US Gulf/US East Coast activity in the smaller segments and softer conditions for Panamax. In the Pacific, muted enquiry and longer lists contributed to a softer tone, especially in NoPac, though isolated strength persisted in Australian coal. The Handysize market held a relatively balanced tone, with firm sentiment in the US Gulf and South Atlantic driven by increasing demand and tight tonnage availability. Fresh fixtures included a trip from SW Pass to Corinto placed on subjects at $23,000 and a Savannah-to-Continent wood pellet run fixed in the mid-$20,000s, though details remained unclear. The Continent–Mediterranean showed some fresh enquiry but largely steady rates. From Asia, activity remained subdued with limited reported fixtures. The 7TC average rose by $61 to close at $15,127. The Supramax segment delivered another mixed day with limited new information. The Atlantic showed a divided picture: some brokers noted signs of a floor forming in the US Gulf, while the Continent–Mediterranean stayed muted and the South Atlantic remained affected by ample available tonnage. In Asia, recent gains began to fade as enquiry slowed, particularly in the north where NoPac remained quiet. Isolated fixtures included a delivery Ho Chi Minh trip via Indonesia to China in the high $15,000s and a delivery Singapore trip via Australia to the Philippines reported around $20,000–$21,000. The 11TC average rose modestly by $41 to finish at $18,250. Panamax sentiment softened further as rising vessel supply outpaced limited new enquiry in the Atlantic, leaving direction unclear. Fronthaul demand also eased with December tonnage increasing and prompt cargoes largely cleared. Indonesian levels continued to slip as charterers capitalised on prompt positions with a wide choice of tonnage. Period activity remained sparse, and the P5TC fell by $205 to $17,032. While a strong Capesize market may create opportunities through split stems, confirmation remained limited. In the Pacific, sluggish NoPac enquiry and softer Indonesian rounds weighed on owners, though Australian coal trades saw pockets of strength due to tight nearby supply. Atlantic Basin • US Gulf and South Atlantic firm for Handysize; Supramax and Panamax more mixed • Limited fresh enquiry in Continent–Mediterranean across all segments • Panamax tonnage lists lengthening, adding pressure despite possible cargo splits from Capesize Pacific Basin • Supramax and Handysize muted with enquiry slowing, especially NoPac • Panamax remains soft, though Aussie coal supports selective premiums • Indian Ocean supported by iron ore flows and balanced tonnage • US Gulf and South Atlantic remain the firmest regions on tight tonnage • Continent–Mediterranean shows steady conditions with limited rate movement • Asian markets remain quiet with minimal new enquiry Denmark Introduces State-Backed War Insurance to Safeguard Shipping Operations Denmark has unanimously passed amendments to the War Risk Insurance of Ships Act, ensuring that Danish-flagged vessels can continue operating in the event of war should commercial insurance markets fail. The updated framework provides a state-backed guarantee of DKK 6 billion to secure liquidity for the War Insurance Institute upon activation. The system will cover damage to crew, passengers, cargo and ships, and will be financed through contributions by shipping companies once triggered. Danish Shipping emphasised the strategic importance of the sector, noting that the legislation ensures stability for supply chains serving Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Piracy Incident in Gulf of Guinea Leaves Nine Seafarers Kidnapped from Danish-Linked Tanker The gas tanker Cgas Saturn was attacked by pirates in the Gulf of Guinea, resulting in nine crew members being kidnapped. Four remaining crew members were able to keep the vessel safe, with one sustaining minor injuries now receiving onboard medical care. Christiania Gas, a subsidiary of Christiania Shipping, stated that its top priority is establishing contact with the missing seafarers and ensuring their safe release. The company is coordinating closely with relevant authorities and will not provide further details to protect those involved. • Panamax direction remains driven by vessel supply, with possible support from Capesize cargo splits • Atlantic segments may face continued pressure where enquiry remains thin • Asian sentiment depends on NoPac and Indonesian activity alongside evolving tonnage lists • Maritime risk considerations elevated following piracy incident and regulatory updates on war insurance

Agri- Commodities: 24-28/11/25 : Monday Wheat opened the week lower after Saudi Arabia’s tender came in sharply priced, while soybeans and corn also finished slightly weaker. Market reaction to the Trump–Xi call remained muted, particularly for soybeans, where repeated political signals have not delivered the expected demand. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 300k tons of wheat for March–April arrival at $257.96–$259.74/t CnF, roughly $5–$5.50 below the previous tender, with February slots skipped. Russian 12.5% protein wheat eased by $1 to $228/t FOB according to IKAR, and MARS reported that winter-cereal sowing in Europe is largely complete under mostly favorable conditions. US winter wheat conditions improved to 48% good/excellent, two points above the five-year average. USDA confirmed private sales of 123k tons of US soybeans to China, bringing known 25/26 sales to 1.94 mmt, with an additional 0.62 mmt sold to “unknown” since October. Weekly US export inspections showed 799k tons of soybeans, 1,632k tons of corn, and 475k tons of wheat. No soybeans were shipped to China, leaving total inspections well behind last year’s levels. Tuesday US grain futures were mostly higher, led by wheat, which outperformed MATIF on support from a weaker USD. Reuters reported that China purchased at least 10, and possibly up to 15, US soybean cargoes following the Xi–Trump call, with confirmations expected imminently. EU customs data put soft-wheat exports at 9.19 mmt as of November 21, though the update covered only five days due to technical issues, while suggested volumes near 11.6 mmt. US weekly export sales for the week ending October 9 totaled 614k tons of wheat, 1,327k tons of corn, and 786k tons of soybeans. Jordan made no purchase in its wheat tender, and IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast by 0.5 mmt to 88.5 mmt, with 2026 output projected at 86–91 mmt. ABC News reported that the US and Ukraine reached terms on a revised 19-point peace plan after talks in Geneva, though key issues still require leader-level negotiations. Markets also reacted to rising expectations of a December US rate cut, with odds increasing to around 85% after comments from the New York Fed’s John Williams. Wednesday US grain and oilseed futures closed higher across the board ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with corn leading after updated CFTC data showed funds more short than expected. Reports said China rejected 69k tons of Brazilian soybeans due to wheat-related pesticide contamination and suspended several exporters, including Cargill, LDC, CHS, and 3Tentos. The widely discussed large US soybean sale to China was not confirmed, with the next opportunity for USDA reporting falling on Friday due to the holiday schedule. On the tender side, Tunisia issued a tender for 125k tons of feed barley for December–February shipment, and Jordan again made no purchase in its 120k-ton feed barley tender. Turkey’s TMO directly bought about 300k tons of Russian 12.5% protein milling wheat for delivery by December 31, 2025. Non-commercials increased their net short in MATIF milling wheat by 7.2k contracts to 194.5k, while extending their net long in rapeseed to 31.8k contracts. Thursday Trading was extremely slow, with MATIF wheat confined to a narrow 1-euro range on light volume. Markets awaited Chicago’s reopening later in the day and monitored for confirmation of recent Chinese soybean purchases. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s wheat harvest at 33.9% complete, up 13.6 points week-on-week, and raised its production estimate by 1.5 mmt to a record 25.5 mmt. The European Commission increased its usable wheat and maize production estimates by 0.8 mmt each, to 134.2 mmt and 57.6 mmt respectively, while trimming barley output to 55.6 mmt. Tunisia purchased 75k tons of feed barley in three consignments priced between $268.42 and $269.58 CnF. Separately, President Putin said Trump’s proposals could form the basis of a future peace deal with Ukraine but noted they remain unfinished. Friday Corn strengthened on Friday as demand for US supplies remained firm, and soybeans also posted gains, supported by expectations of additional Chinese purchase confirmations. Wheat moved lower in both the US and Europe, with the weakness most pronounced on MATIF, where March wheat closed at new contract lows following another increase in Argentina’s crop estimate. The delayed US weekly export sales report for the week ending October 16 showed 341k tons of wheat, 3,394k tons of corn, and 1,108k tons of soybeans sold. USDA confirmed private sales of 274k tons of corn to unknown destinations and 312k tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26, which came in below expectations. Fund positions as of Friday were estimated at ~121k net short in corn, ~78k net short in Chicago wheat, and ~92k net long in soybeans. FranceAgriMer reported French soft-wheat conditions at 97% good/excellent, down one point on the week but still well above last year. Russia’s wheat export tax is set to fall sharply from ~223 rubles to ~9 rubles starting December 3. March MATIF wheat declined again in November after a positive October, with December performance split evenly between gains and losses over the past decade

Weekly Freight Recap: 27/11/25: The dry bulk market showed a mostly subdued performance, with Handysize and Supramax sentiment remaining soft across both basins and Panamax maintaining a firm, steady tone driven by continued grain activity. The Atlantic saw mixed conditions, with smaller segments facing limited enquiry while Panamax benefitted from solid U.S. Gulf and East Coast support. In the Pacific, Handy/Supra sectors stayed muted, whereas Panamax demand from Indonesia and Japan kept momentum intact despite some easing in Chinese interest. The Handysize sector continued to experience a quiet and cautious tone. The BHSI closed at 822, and the 7TC average edged up by $70 to $14,792. In the Continent and Mediterranean, an increase in available tonnage and limited fresh enquiry maintained a slightly negative sentiment. A fixture was heard with a vessel spot Antwerp placed on subjects for a Rouen–Abidjan trip at around the high-$17,000s, with no additional details confirmed. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf saw a modest improvement in the cargo–tonnage balance, creating the beginnings of an upward trend, including talk of a 35,000 dwt fixed on subjects from Recalada to West Africa at $22,700. Asian markets remained subdued, with demand lagging and an extended tonnage list keeping sentiment soft. Supramax conditions were positional, with mixed movements across regions. The 11TC average rose by $51 to $18,136. In the Atlantic, volatility persisted in the U.S. Gulf while EC South America showed slightly more activity; the Continent–Mediterranean remained lacklustre. Fixtures included vessels placed on subjects from Barcarena to the East Mediterranean at $24,000, from Santos to Jeddah at $17,500 plus ballast bonus, and an EC South America–India/Japan trip at $17,250 plus bonus. In Asia, sentiment continued its gradual improvement supported by increasing cargo visibility, alongside signs of a rebound in the Indian Ocean. Recent fixtures included gypsum loading via Salalah and iron ore into China in the mid-$14,000s to mid-$16,000s range. A broader cross-segment view indicated that both Supramax and Handysize markets remained largely flat, with softer conditions in the U.S. Gulf and East Mediterranean and restrained activity in Asia due to slower demand and regional holidays. The Panamax market maintained a firm and balanced tone, supported by strong fronthaul grain demand. Owners’ offers were increasingly met without significant discounting as the U.S. Gulf and U.S. East Coast continued to provide a stable foundation for Atlantic confidence, even as nearby trans-Atlantic spreads widened. South Atlantic indicators softened slightly, but North Atlantic sentiment held firm with limited prompt tonnage. In the Pacific, Indonesian and Japanese demand continued to tighten the list, allowing owners to maintain firm ideas. While Chinese buying eased, the region overall remained constructive. Period interest persisted, including a scrubber-fitted Panamax rumoured fixed for 10–12 months at around 113% BKI with scrubber benefit shared. Reported fixtures included a coal stem from Davant to Jorf Lasfar at $22.50 in the Atlantic, and in the Pacific, round voyages fixed in the high-$18,000s to high-$19,000s range depending on delivery and scrubber terms. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Impact of U.S. Shutdown on Import Planning A prolonged U.S. government shutdown has restricted access to federal data, making it harder for importers to plan purchasing and investment decisions—especially ahead of the Lunar New Year period. Importers typically place orders in December for factory production ahead of the Feb. 17 holiday. The Port of Los Angeles expects a short but active six-week window of cargo movement before factories close, although overall November and December volumes may soften compared to last year. In October, the port processed 848,431 TEUs, down 6% year over year but slightly above the five-year average, with imports at 429,283 TEUs and exports at 123,768 TEUs. Rotterdam–HGK Green Corridor Agreement The Port of Rotterdam and HGK Group signed a letter of intent to collaborate on developing climate-friendly supply chains along the Rhine. The partnership will focus on infrastructure supporting the transport of green ammonia, methanol, liquid hydrogen, and other renewable energy sources, as well as cross-border carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). The collaboration aims to strengthen hydrogen and carbon transport corridors linking Rotterdam with the industrial regions of North Rhine–Westphalia.

Agri- Commodities: 17-21/11/25 : Monday The rebound in soybeans and Chicago wheat was even more impressive than Friday’s plunge, driven this time by actual Chinese purchases rather than political promises. US wheat rallied alongside soybeans on talk of Chinese demand, though without confirmation that wheat was included, while MATIF wheat lagged despite a weaker EUR/USD. USDA corrected Friday’s missing flash sales by trimming US soybean sales to China by 100k tons, yet sentiment stayed upbeat on reports that China bought at least 14 US cargoes. NOPA reported a record October crush of 227.65 mbu, suggesting stronger domestic use may offset some export weakness. Weekly inspections showed soybeans at 1,176k tons, corn at 2,054k tons, and wheat at 247k tons; cumulative soybean inspections remain down 7.5 mmt y/y while corn is up 6.7 mmt. Russian 12.5% wheat FOB for late December fell $3 w/w to $229/t, while Poland reported sabotage on a key rail line used to send aid and weapons to Ukraine. Based on cumulative inspections so far this marketing year, wheat needs to maintain last year’s pace to meet USDA’s export forecast, soybeans need to accelerate, and corn could afford to slow. Tuesday Prices closed mixed in choppy trade, with USDA confirming US soybean sales to China but at the low end of expectations, keeping attention on daily flash sales as weekly reports remain delayed. USDA reported 792k tons of soybeans sold for 2025/26, while EU soft wheat exports reached 9.05 mmt as of November 16, roughly in line with last year and with lineup data suggesting exports near ~11 mmt. Russian wheat exports totaled about 3 mmt in the first 17 days of November, and Jordan bought 60k tons of milling wheat at $263.85/t CnF, up slightly from the prior week. US corn and soybeans were 91% and 95% harvested, leaving about 1,507 mbu (~38 mmt) of corn still in the field. Corn continues to mirror last year’s pattern, Chicago wheat returned to last year’s Nov–Dec range, and MATIF is near the level from which it bounced last year. Wednesday Grain prices turned lower as wheat came under pressure from unconfirmed rumors of Chinese buying and renewed peace-talk headlines, while soybeans faced the challenge of bullish demand news not fully matching expectations. USDA reported 330k tons of soybeans sold to China, bringing the two-day total to 1,122k tons (18–19 vessels), though reaching 12 mmt for the year would still require about 5–6 vessels per day through year-end. Reports also suggested the Trump administration may delay cutting support for imported biofuels, putting additional pressure on the soybean complex. Politico reported that the White House has drafted a 28-point peace plan with Russia and plans to press Zelenskyy to accept it. S&P Global’s farmer survey indicated a possible 3.8–4.0% shift from corn to soybean plantings and a ~2.3% drop in wheat area. Jordan made no purchases in its barley tender due to lack of offers, non-commercials increased their net short in MATIF wheat to 187.3k ctrs and expanded their rapeseed long, and CFTC’s delayed report showed rising net shorts in corn, soybeans, and Chicago wheat. Thursday Grains sold off for a second straight day on mixed news and a sharp reversal in US financial markets, with wheat supply projections still comfortable. USDA reported private sales of 462k tons of soybeans to China and 132k tons of white wheat, confirming earlier rumors. for the week ending October 2 showed strong wheat demand at 888k tons, alongside 2,260k tons of corn and 924k tons of soybeans during the period when US futures were testing contract lows. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA issued a tender for 300k tons of wheat for February–April arrivals, while Australia’s GIWA raised Western Australia’s wheat forecast to a potential record 13.05 mmt. Sovecon lifted Russia’s wheat production estimate to 88.6 mmt on strong Siberian yields, and Argentina’s wheat harvest reached 20.3% with the production estimate unchanged at 24 mmt. Friday Prices ended the week mixed after multiple wheat and corn contracts set new intraday lows for November, with MATIF milling wheat (USD) hitting a contract low that underscored heavy wheat fundamentals. The week ahead starts with Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender results, which may influence market direction. FranceAgriMer reported soft wheat planting at 95% with 98% rated good to excellent, well above last year’s 88%. Marco Rubio said Trump’s Nov. 27 deadline for Ukraine to support a peace plan is flexible, following updated negotiations in Geneva. The Russian ruble strengthened on rising odds of a peace deal, reducing export competitiveness but possibly lowering the export tax, which is set to rise to ~232 RUB from ~203 RUB but may disappear if currency and index conditions hold. A delayed CFTC report for the week ending October 7 showed funds selling corn, buying soybeans, and slightly reducing their wheat short, with current estimates putting corn near -123k ctrs, soybeans near +90k ctrs, and wheat near -77k ctrs. Over the last six months, March MATIF (USD) was the worst performer, followed by Kansas and Chicago wheat, while corn and soybeans diverged

Weekly Freight Recap: 20/11/25 : The dry bulk market showed a steady but uneven performance, with Handysize activity quiet, Supramax maintaining a firm underlying tone, and Panamax supported by stronger fundamentals in both basins. The Atlantic remained broadly stable, supported by positional tightness in some regions, while the Pacific held steady despite lighter fixing. Period and voyage activity continued across segments, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics. The Handysize segment experienced a quiet trading day, with sentiment broadly flat and fundamentals unchanged. The BHSI closed at 820, and the 7TC average eased slightly to $14,759. The Continent and Mediterranean remained steady, supported by fresh enquiry and limited prompt tonnage, while the South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf stayed quiet with limited activity and flat rates. In Asia, the market held a balanced but subdued tone, with steady rates amid slower trading. Reported activity included a Morocco–Far East trip and short-haul Asian movements involving grains and slag. Supramax fundamentals remained stable, with the BSI at 1,430 and the 11TC average at $18,080. The Atlantic experienced a mostly flat day, with slight softening in the U.S. Gulf as additional tonnage and ballasters weighed on sentiment, while the South Atlantic and Continent–Mediterranean remained positional. In Asia, supply and demand stayed balanced, and owners continued showing preference for NOPAC routes due to firmer returns. Fixtures included scrap, petcoke, and grain runs in the Atlantic, and coal, Indonesia–India, and Durban–China trips in the Pacific. The Panamax sector remained supported by firm conditions in the North Atlantic, driven by tight prompt tonnage and stronger fronthaul demand. Shorter-duration business traded at improved levels, reflecting elevated expectations. In the Pacific, Indonesian rounds remained active, while Australia and NOPAC trades held steady. The BPI timecharter average rose to $17,057. Fixtures included U.S. East Coast fronthaul trips, India-bound voyages, Indonesian rounds, and NOPAC continuation runs. Despite some softer tones in parts of the basin, improving spot indicators and South Atlantic tightness signalled a steady underlying trend. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin EU Naval Forces Respond to Tanker Hijacking off Somalia European naval forces rescued 24 crew members from a Maltese-flagged tanker seized by Somali pirates off East Africa. The crew sheltered in the vessel’s citadel while attackers briefly controlled the ship. Increased vessel diversion away from the Red Sea has contributed to renewed piracy risks, with several hijackings reported over the past year. Panama Rejects U.S. Claims on Free Canal Transit for Government Vessels The Panama Canal Authority denied statements from the U.S. State Department that American government vessels would transit the canal without paying fees. While Panama rejected reports of fee changes, it signalled willingness to continue dialogue. The development follows rising political tension, with U.S. officials criticising canal tolls and suggesting the possibility of reclaiming control if negotiations fail.

Agri- Commodities 10-14/11/25 : Monday Grain markets firmed at the start of the week as headlines about a possible end to the U.S. government shutdown lifted CBOT futures, while European wheat lagged and improved EU export competitiveness. Market participants noted that, without fresh supportive catalysts, the rally might prove short-lived. Average trade estimates placed U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 92% and 96% complete, with winter wheat 95% planted and 52% good/excellent, though official USDA data remained unavailable due to the shutdown. Egypt’s state buyer Mostakbal Misr was reported to have bought around 500k tons of wheat for late December–January delivery, including roughly 200k tons from Russia. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat closed last week at $232/t, slightly up on the week. Brazil’s 25/26 corn crop was forecast by Safras at 143.6 mmt, well above USDA’s September estimate. U.S. export inspections showed solid corn and soybean volumes but cumulative soybean loadings remained 6.4 mmt behind last year. Tuesday Price action was muted on Tuesday, with major contracts closing within ±1% as markets awaited Friday’s USDA report. Discussions continued around possible Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and wheat, though concrete details were still lacking. Trade estimates pointed to a cut in U.S. corn yield to around 184 bu/acre and a smaller adjustment in soybeans, while noting that final revisions typically come in January. In the tender market, Jordan reportedly purchased 60k tons of milling wheat for early February at $262.50/t C&F, matching prices from previous rounds. Algeria was said to have bought smaller wheat volumes near $263–271/t C&F depending on port. EU soft wheat exports reached 8.38 mmt as of November 9, slightly below last year, with the data estimated to lag line-ups by roughly 2.5 mmt. Russian 12.5% FOB wheat continued trading at a premium to December MATIF, approaching levels that previously coincided with short technical rebounds. Wednesday By midweek, grains closed higher despite sharply weaker energy markets. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA release, traders held long positions in corn and soybeans, while wheat continued to lag on ample global supply. Politically, President Trump signed a bipartisan funding bill ending the longest U.S. government shutdown, though only through the end of January. The Rosario Exchange lifted Argentina’s wheat crop estimate to a record 24.5 mmt, adding pressure to global wheat markets. France trimmed its maize forecast but raised soft wheat output. Tunisia issued tenders for 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum. Non-commercials reduced net shorts in MATIF wheat and cut long exposure in rapeseed, with both markets posting small weekly losses. Thursday Corn led Thursday’s move higher, breaking above its 200-day moving average and generating strong follow-through buying. Soybeans followed with solid gains, with January futures hitting a five-month high. Expectations ahead of Friday’s USDA report leaned firmly toward lower U.S. yields and tighter balances for corn and soybeans, while wheat remained more muted. Argentina’s BAGE raised its wheat estimate to 24 mmt, suggesting USDA may need to lift its own number. Brazil’s CONAB made small adjustments to 25/26 corn and soybean projections. USDA resumed export sales reporting after the shutdown, showing strong combined old- and new-crop sales. Tunisia reportedly bought 125k tons of soft wheat and 100k tons of durum. Meanwhile, the European Parliament postponed the start of the anti-deforestation law to late 2026. Friday Wheat futures briefly strengthened on Friday following reports of drone attacks on Russian Black Sea ports, though gains faded after USDA published a heavy for 25/26. The WASDE placed world wheat production at 829 mmt, with exporter stock-to-use at the highest level since 2018/19. Corn yields were cut less than expected, weighing on prices, while soybeans saw profit-taking despite largely neutral estimates. USDA reported 6.61 mmt of “missing” flash sales accumulated during the government shutdown, including 1.35 mmt of soybeans. President Trump said China had agreed to significantly increase U.S. soybean purchases before spring. FranceAgriMer reported soft wheat planting at 89% complete with strong quality ratings. Fund estimates suggested money managers added to corn shorts, reduced wheat shorts, and held soybean length largely steady.

Weekly Freight Recap: 13/11/25 : The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize activity remaining limited, Supramax maintaining firmer sentiment, and Panamax extending its gains on stronger fundamentals. The Atlantic generally held a positive tone across most segments, while the Pacific remained steady but slower, with Asian Handysize and Supramax markets facing softer enquiry and longer tonnage lists. Period interest persisted in both Supramax and Panamax sectors, supported by balanced fundamentals and improving demand signals. The Handysize market experienced another quiet day, with limited fresh enquiry and mostly unchanged conditions. The BHSI inched up by 2 points to 811, and the 7TC average increased by $35 to close at $14,591. The Continent–Mediterranean region remained subdued, mirroring the previous day as enquiry stayed thin. The U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic saw a slight improvement, with fresh demand helping lift sentiment and support firmer levels. In Asia, sentiment softened further amid slow trading, tightening cargo availability, and a growing tonnage list, particularly in Southeast Asia. In the Atlantic, the Lally Schulte was reportedly fixed for a cement trip from Tarragona to the U.S. East Coast at $13,000. In Asia, the Pan Bonita was heard placed on subjects for a slag run to Southeast Asia at $9,750, with limited additional details. The Supramax market remained firm, extending the positive sentiment seen earlier in the week. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf recorded steady activity, with owners gradually lifting their ideas as demand supported stronger levels. The Continent and Mediterranean appeared more balanced, though owners continued to adjust offers upward in line with sustained enquiry. In Asia, conditions held broadly flat, with tighter northern tonnage and restrained offering from owners keeping levels steady as charterers continued bidding around last-done rates. The 11TC index rose by $264 to close at $17,255. In the Atlantic, the Lake Pearl was placed on subjects for a scrap cargo from Ghent to the East Mediterranean at $20,500. In Asia, the Chayanee Naree was heard on subjects for a trip via Indonesia to West Coast India at $16,000. The Panamax market continued to firm, supported by strong fundamentals, particularly in the North Atlantic where trans-Atlantic demand increased. U.S. Gulf enquiry remained the dominant driver, while fronthaul activity was limited but balanced by a tightening tonnage list. ECSA values held steady, with early December demand gradually building. In Asia, healthy enquiry from Australia and other regional load origins underpinned firmer sentiment, while a leaner tonnage count helped support rates. Paper markets also strengthened, lending confidence to owners. On publication, the BPI timecharter average gained $196 to close at $16,981. A slower period market still included the JY Hamburg fixing 4–6 months at $16,750. In the Atlantic, rumours circulated of the Brilliant Knight fixing in the North, while the Katagalan Ace was placed on subjects at Gibraltar. In ECSA, the YM Respect was linked to a Singapore–Japan run at an unconfirmed upper-$18,000s + upper-$800,000s bb. In Asia, the Perseas was placed on subjects for a NoPac round, while the XH Hope and Tiger East were also heard fixed on subjects for Australian and regional rounds, though details were limited. Atlantic Basin • U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic showing firmer sentiment across Handysize and Supramax. • North Atlantic Panamax market supported by tightening tonnage and steady grain enquiry. • Continent–Mediterranean balanced for Supramax and subdued for Handysize. Pacific Basin • Handysize and Supramax seeing softer enquiry and extended tonnage lists. • Panamax supported by steady Australian and Indonesian demand. • Northern Supramax tonnage remained tight despite flat sentiment. • Limited enquiry in the Continent–Mediterranean keeping activity subdued. • U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic showing a slight pickup with firmer sentiment. • Asian conditions remained soft, with tightening cargo volumes and rising tonnage availability. Red Sea Attacks Paused but Shipping Caution Remains Yemen’s Houthi movement appears to have paused its Red Sea vessel attacks after an indirect confirmation linked to the current ceasefire, though no formal announcement has been made. The group has stated it may resume operations if conflict conditions worsen. Previous attacks disrupted normal Suez Canal traffic and forced many vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. While the pause reduces immediate risk, shipowners remain cautious as routing decisions continue to depend on evolving security conditions. U.S. Port Fees on Chinese-Built Ships Add Uncertainty for Owners Upcoming U.S. port fees targeting Chinese-built or Chinese-linked vessels have created uncertainty across the shipping industry, with owners reviewing financing structures and vessel classifications to assess potential exposure. Chinese leasing firms hold a significant share of global maritime financing, and unclear definitions around “Chinese control” have led some operators to consider refinancing. China’s retaliatory fees on U.S.-flagged ships add to the uncertainty, and the measures may influence future fleet deployment and port access decisions. • Panamax supported by firm North Atlantic and Australian enquiry. • Supramax sentiment steady with ongoing demand in U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic. • Handysize activity subdued in Europe with firmer tone in the Americas. • Market direction influenced by Red Sea security developments and regulatory shifts affecting vessel access and financing

Agri- Commodities 03-07/11/25 : Monday Soybeans extended their rally on expectations of accelerating Chinese demand, while rumors of U.S. wheat sales to China lifted Chicago futures. Corn stayed firm after StoneX raised its U.S. yield estimate to 186.0 bu/acre, though many still expect revisions lower in upcoming reports. Harvest progress reached 91% for soybeans and 83% for corn, with winter wheat planting nearly complete at 91%. Export inspections totaled 965k t of soybeans, 1.67 mmt of corn, and 350k t of wheat—broadly in line with expectations. Despite easing trade tensions, Chinese importers continued booking cheaper Brazilian soybeans, reportedly 20 cargoes for December through mid-2026. Kazakhstan’s agriculture ministry reported a 27.1 mmt total harvest, including 20.3 mmt of wheat, far above USDA’s 16 mmt estimate. Tuesday Wheat held its positive tone, supported by Chicago strength, while corn and soybeans eased slightly. S&P Global left U.S. yield estimates unchanged at 185.5 bu/acre for corn and 53.0 bu/acre for soybeans. EU soft-wheat exports reached 8.03 mmt as of Nov 2, narrowing the gap to last year after adjustments to French data. Jordan made no purchases in its wheat tender, while a weaker euro helped MATIF recover modestly. Broader financial markets softened, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warning of a 10–20% equity correction within a year—a reminder that shifting risk appetite continues to influence commodity flow and speculative interest. Wednesday Chicago wheat led gains on mounting speculation that China booked up to 500k t of U.S. wheat. Beijing confirmed plans to suspend some retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm imports from Nov 10, removing up to 15% in extra duties while retaining the 10% base levy. U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% tariff, keeping Brazilian supplies more competitive. Russia proposed a 20 mmt grain export quota for Feb–Jun 2026, double last year’s level, implying no immediate constraint on flows. Jordan purchased 60k t of feed barley from Bunge at $269.25 C&F for January shipment, while Iran’s corn and soymeal tender closed without major results. On the speculative side, non-commercial traders trimmed their net short in MATIF wheat by 56k contracts and expanded rapeseed longs, suggesting early signs of renewed fund engagement. Thursday Soybeans and Chicago wheat turned sharply lower as confidence in large Chinese purchases faded. Falling soymeal prices and a broader risk-off tone across financial markets added pressure. Argentina’s wheat harvest advanced to 11.6% complete, with yields above expectations at 2.43 t/ha and total output maintained at 22 mmt. In Europe, Germany’s farm cooperatives forecast 2025 grain output at 45.6 mmt (+9% y/y), including 23.3 mmt of wheat—the highest since 2017. Tunisia issued a 75k-t feed-barley tender for late-November to December shipment, while China’s soybean imports reached a record 9.48 mmt in October (+17% y/y), still largely of Brazilian origin. Friday Grains ended the week mixed, with wheat and corn drifting lower while soybeans stabilized ahead of the delayed USDA WASDE report. China reinstated export qualifications for three U.S. soybean suppliers effective Nov 10, signaling a further easing of trade restrictions. FranceAgriMer reported France’s corn harvest 90% complete and soft-wheat planting 79% done. Tunisia secured 75k t of barley at $257–268 C&F, while Algeria issued a new soft-wheat tender for December–February shipment. Speculative showed only mild changes—corn and wheat shorts steady, soybean net-long up ~7k contracts. The U.S. Senate approved the first step to end the government shutdown that began Oct 1, boosting expectations that regular USDA data releases will soon resume.

Weekly Freight Recap: 06/11/25 : The dry bulk market experienced a generally softer tone this week, with most segments facing mild corrections. The Handysize and Supramax sectors saw limited fresh activity, while the Panamax market showed brief midweek stability before continuing its downward trajectory. Weak demand across basins and growing vessel availability placed pressure on rates, though select regional improvements offered some support. The Handysize market recorded another subdued session, with the BHSI falling by 11 points to 820 and the 7TC average down $196 to $14,763. Activity in the Continent–Mediterranean region remained quiet amid limited new enquiries. In the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic, weak demand added to the downward pressure. Across Asia, sentiment stayed soft, with slow trading and expanding tonnage lists, particularly in Southeast Asia, contributing to the overall decline. The Supramax segment maintained a cautious tone, with the 11TC average closing $61 lower at $16,515. The Atlantic showed early signs of support from the U.S. Gulf, where stronger trans-Atlantic discussions hinted at a potential turnaround, though fixtures remained limited. The South Atlantic and Mediterranean basins stayed quiet with minimal fresh enquiry. In Asia, sentiment weakened further due to limited demand and abundant prompt tonnage. Fixture activity was scarce, and overall tone remained cautious despite some optimism in the Atlantic. The Panamax market softened further, with the timecharter average posting at $16,140, up slightly by $50 from earlier in the week but reflecting a generally weaker sentiment overall. In the Atlantic, the North saw declining rates as trans-Atlantic demand faded, while the South held relatively steady supported by East Coast South America and South Africa activity. Fronthaul business remained limited, and the overall tone was cautious. In the Pacific, rates stayed under pressure despite a brief uptick in midweek activity. Coal demand provided some seasonal support, but growing vessel lists and subdued sentiment prevailed. On the period front, the SSI Surprise reportedly fixed 11–13 months at $13,750. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Cybercriminals Exploit Remote Monitoring Tools to Infiltrate Logistics and Freight Networks Cybercriminal groups are increasingly targeting logistics and trucking companies by deploying remote monitoring and management (RMM) software to gain unauthorized access and steal cargo freight. According to Proofpoint, the campaign has been active since mid-2025, focusing on transportation firms ranging from small carriers to large integrated supply-chain providers. Attackers use compromised email accounts and fraudulent freight listings to deliver malicious links, installing legitimate-looking RMM tools such as ScreenConnect and SimpleHelp. Once inside company systems, they gather credentials, delete legitimate bookings, and use fake accounts to secure and divert shipments — most commonly food and beverage cargoes — for resale or export. Freight Rates Uptick Slows Down Global Ship Recycling GMS reported that recent strength in freight markets and a scarcity of available tonnage have slowed global ship recycling activity. Subcontinent yards in India and Pakistan experienced quieter conditions as fewer vessels headed for demolition, while volatile tariffs, oil prices, and currency shifts added to uncertainty. Recycling prices dropped by up to $30/LDT in early 2025 but found a floor around $450/LDT amid low supply. Pakistan has re-entered the market after a long absence, and Bangladeshi recyclers continue upgrading facilities ahead of the Hong Kong Convention taking effect in mid-2025. Alang remains a key hub, while Turkey faces ongoing economic challenges as its currency continues to weaken.

Agri- Commodities 27-31/10/25: Monday Grain markets opened the week firmer after upbeat headlines on a potential U.S.–China trade deal lifted risk appetite across commodities. The optimism came despite limited clarity on agricultural commitments and lingering pressure from weaker export data. Russian wheat prices were slightly lower, while EU maize yields were trimmed further. In Argentina, the peso strengthened after President Javier Milei’s party secured a midterm victory. U.S. harvest progress advanced, though export inspections remained subdued. Tuesday CBOT grains extended gains but showed signs of fatigue as traders awaited confirmation of any Chinese buying. After two strong weeks, started to lose momentum, with soybeans giving back part of their recent rally. MATIF wheat eased in quiet trade, and EU soft-wheat exports continued to trail last year’s pace. U.S. consumer confidence dipped to a six-month low, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts later in the year. Wednesday Markets were mixed ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting, as traders reacted to shifting headlines. Trump claimed progress on farm trade, though Beijing offered no confirmation, prompting a brief sell-off. Speculative positioning data showed lighter shorts in MATIF wheat and new longs in rapeseed. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps but signalled uncertainty about December policy moves. Thursday Soybeans led a volatile session following the Trump–Xi meeting, rallying strongly before trimming gains. Corn and wheat eased but stayed higher on the month. China agreed to buy 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans this year and at least 25 mmt annually for the next three years. The European Commission lifted its wheat and barley crop estimates, while Argentina reported frost damage in southern wheat areas. Turkey’s TMO purchased 250k tons of feed barley, and the ECB kept rates unchanged. Friday Grains ended the week on a firm note, supported by renewed talk of Chinese buying and short covering in wheat. The absence of daily U.S. export data kept trade largely headline-driven. Russian FOB wheat values were steady, while France’s harvest and planting moved ahead of average. Fund activity suggested moderate buying across major grains, with December MATIF wheat breaking a seven-month losing streak.

Weekly Freight Recap: 30/10/25 : Freight markets continued to ease across the board this week, with Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments all facing renewed pressure. Sentiment turned cautious as limited fresh demand and increasing tonnage lists in both basins weighed on rates, suggesting that the short-lived rally in mid-October may have topped out. The Handysize market continued its downward slide through the week, with sentiment weakening across both North and South Atlantic routes. The North Atlantic saw a noticeable accumulation of spot tonnage amid declining demand, particularly out of the US East Coast and Baltic. In the South Atlantic, lack of fresh stems and subdued grain volumes kept rates on the defensive, while owners struggled to find cover for prompt positions. Across the basin, both supply and sentiment leaned bearish, with little to indicate a near-term rebound. Pacific: The Pacific basin remained relatively flat but directionless. Stable demand from Southeast Asia failed to offset weaker activity elsewhere, particularly from the northern Pacific and Australia. Chinese demand remained steady but insufficient to lift overall sentiment. Owners reported limited fixture opportunities, with rates holding broadly steady at lower levels amid low volatility. With minimal period interest and cautious chartering activity, the Pacific Handysize market ended the week subdued and uncertain, mirroring the broader softening tone across the dry bulk complex. Atlantic: The Supramax segment remained under pressure in the Atlantic as sentiment continued to erode. The US Gulf again suffered from scarce fresh enquiry and a build-up of prompt tonnage, pushing rates lower. Even though some brokers suggested the trans-Atlantic run might be nearing a floor, fixtures were limited and confidence fragile. The South Atlantic was similarly lacklustre, with reduced grain demand and little impetus for recovery. Overall, the basin reflected a subdued tone with both owners and charterers reluctant to test new levels until a clearer direction emerges. Pacific: In the Pacific, market momentum also faded as the week progressed. Earlier optimism stemming from northern employment was short-lived, with activity in Indonesia and Southeast Asia slowing markedly. Enquiry from China softened, and a growing list of open tonnage in the region exerted further pressure on sentiment. The market appeared to lose direction, with owners conceding to lower levels to secure employment amid weak competition for limited cargoes. Across both hemispheres, the Supramax market closed the week on a negative note, reflecting a pervasive cautiousness and limited appetite for period coverage. Atlantic: The Panamax market saw further correction in the Atlantic as trans-Atlantic demand from the US Gulf and North Atlantic weakened considerably. Despite early talk of renewed cargo activity, the basin lost traction toward week’s end as tonnage availability grew and charterers adopted a wait-and-see stance. Fronthaul demand from the Americas remained subdued, while South American loading programs offered little support with minimal fresh inquiry. The lack of momentum, combined with limited period interest and muted sentiment from the paper market, contributed to growing caution among owners. Overall, the Atlantic Panamax sector showed clear signs of a market under pressure, with the recent firmness now dissipating. Pacific: In the Pacific, activity started reasonably but tailed off as the week progressed. Charterers displayed little urgency to cover tonnage amid an increasing list of available vessels and few fresh stems. Australian and NoPac cargoes provided limited relief, but overall enquiry levels were too thin to sustain rates. Owners began trimming offers to stay competitive, signaling a softer tone across the region. With little to no positive influence from the South American market or FFA sentiment, confidence weakened further, leaving the basin directionless. The Pacific Panamax market now appears finely balanced but vulnerable to additional downside if demand does not pick up soon.

Agri- Commodities 20-24/10/25: Monday Began on a firm note, particularly for soybeans, which rallied sharply on upbeat remarks from President Trump about a potential trade deal with China. The oilseed market gained double digits amid rising hopes of resumed Chinese purchases. Wheat and corn, by contrast, traded mixed, with bearish pressure from improved Russian and Australian wheat crop outlooks limiting upside. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat forecast to 88.0 mmt and Australia’s harvest was seen near 36 mmt—its third largest on record. Still, lower prices encouraged demand, with Algeria issuing a December wheat tender. Tuesday brought a modest correction as profit-taking emerged across grains. Broader commodity markets were dominated by a selloff in precious metals, diverting speculative interest from agriculture. Wheat, corn, and soybeans all softened amid limited fresh news, and talk of a potential peace plan between Europe and Ukraine added mild downward pressure on wheat. EU wheat exports remained behind last year’s pace at 5.87 mmt, while Brazil’s corn-ethanol expansion signaled longer-term tightening of exportable supply. Wednesday Saw renewed strength, with all three major grains rebounding despite a general decline in US equities tied to tensions with China. Algeria’s large wheat purchase—at least 570 k tons for December shipment—provided support to international prices, though French origins were again excluded. Japan’s plans to increase US soybean imports further buoyed the complex. Meanwhile, Trump’s new sanctions on Russian oil firms underscored the geopolitical risks surrounding commodity trade. Thursday Featured a notable rally in US wheat futures, led by Kansas City contracts, which jumped more than 2%. Rumors of fresh Chinese soybean buying and possible HRW wheat interest circulated ahead of next week’s Trump–Xi summit. The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production forecast by 8 mmt to 827 mmt, confirming ample global supply even as speculative buying lifted futures. Friday The week ended on a quieter note, with corn slipping more than 1% while wheat and soybeans held steady. Weekend reports of a preliminary US–China trade framework reignited optimism, pushing prices higher in early Monday trade. The agreement reportedly includes renewed Chinese soybean purchases and a delay in tariff escalations. Meanwhile, Turkey’s wheat crop was revised lower to 17.9 mmt, and cooler US inflation data raised expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year

Weekly Freight Recap: 23/10/25 : The dry bulk market showed a broadly steady performance this week, with the Panamax segment leading mild gains while Supramax and Handysize markets traded mixed amid uneven regional sentiment. The Atlantic continued to face limited fresh demand, whereas Asia maintained balanced fundamentals supported by steady tonnage-to-cargo ratios. Overall, activity levels remained moderate, with positional trends and upcoming grain flows likely to shape short-term market direction. It was a relatively more active day for the sector, though overall sentiment remained steady and market fundamentals were largely unchanged from the previous day. The BHSI closed at 884, while the 7TC average slipped by $25 to $15,912. In the Continent and Mediterranean, brokers reported a continued flat trend in rates amid limited fresh inquiry. The U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic also experienced subdued activity, with the lack of prompt demand pushing owners to discount. Meanwhile, the Asian market held firm, supported by a balanced tonnage-to-cargo ratio and consistent cargo flow. Period activity included short-term fixtures in the low $13,000s, though further details were limited. The Supramax market saw weaker sentiment overall, as the Atlantic faced a lack of volume and the U.S. Gulf accumulated prompt tonnage. The South Atlantic also reported limited fresh inquiry, weighing on rates. The 11TC average slipped by $220 to close at $17,653. In Asia, the tone was marginally firmer but lost momentum as the week progressed. Indonesian and North Pacific rounds provided a steady base, though owners faced increasing pressure as cargo volumes eased. Period activity was limited, with most operators adopting a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing market uncertainty. The Panamax market was split this week, with the Pacific driving positive momentum while the Atlantic remained mixed. The BPI timecharter average rose $420 to close at $17,138, supported by firmer demand early in the week. In the Atlantic, mineral and grain demand lent some support on fronthaul routes, but sentiment later softened, with the ECSA region described as quiet and uninspiring amid a wide bid-offer spread and minimal activity. The Pacific remained the main driver, with Australia and NoPac demand supporting stronger sentiment. In Asia, rates were further underpinned by Indonesian cargo requirements, tightening regional tonnage and keeping rates supported. Overall, market direction stayed positional, with charterers cautious amid fluctuating paper sentiment. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Shipping Companies Seek Revisions to IMO’s Net Zero Framework Following the postponement of the IMO’s global climate agreement until 2026, major shipping companies—including Star Bulk and Navigator Gas—have called for amendments to the Net Zero Framework. Industry leaders argue that the current draft lacks clear financial incentives and practical mechanisms for green investment. Star Bulk emphasized the need for economic rewards to justify investments in dual-fuel engines and carbon-capture technologies, while Intertanko urged the IMO to refine technical and certification guidelines for green fuels. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez confirmed that the next year will be used to consult with stakeholders on improving clarity around implementation, CO₂ revenue distribution, and fuel assessment rules. The postponement has also exposed divisions within the EU, as Greece and Cyprus abstained from voting on the framework—an unprecedented move at IMO meetings. Singapore Gains as Owners Shift Fleets from Hong Kong Singapore has emerged as a key beneficiary of the new U.S. port fees on Chinese-owned vessels, with both Pacific Basin and Seaspan Corporation announcing major relocations of ships and management operations from Hong Kong to Singapore. Pacific Basin plans to move around half of its 107-vessel fleet under Singaporean ownership and flag, while Seaspan is expected to reflag up to 100 container ships. These moves are designed to avoid Section 301 fees—starting at $50 per net ton in 2025, rising to $140 by 2028—on Chinese-owned or operated tonnage calling U.S. ports. The transfers have significantly boosted the Singapore Registry of Ships, which recorded a notable rise in August to 119.74 million gross tons, strengthening Singapore’s position as a regional shipping hub amid ongoing geopolitical and trade shifts.

Agri- Commodities 13-17/10/25 : Monday Grain markets struggled to recover after Friday’s broader selloff, contrasting with stronger financial markets. Although tensions between the U.S. and China appeared to ease, uncertainty over agricultural export agreements continued to weigh on U.S. grain and oilseed prices. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed ongoing discussions with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, while also indicating that a Trump–Xi meeting could take place later in October ahead of APEC. China’s soybean imports in September reached 12.87 mmt, the second-largest monthly volume on record. Russian 12.5% wheat FOB prices declined by $3 to $229/ton, while Algeria tendered for 50k tons of durum and Saudi Arabia purchased 500k tons of wheat for early 2026 delivery. Despite the absence of official data amid the U.S. government shutdown, market estimates put the U.S. corn and soybean harvests at 44% and 58% complete, respectively, and winter wheat planting at 66%. Tuesday Wheat prices rebounded from oversold levels, corn also firmed, while soybeans edged lower. Headlines around U.S.–China relations remained the main market driver, keeping volatility elevated. President Trump accused China of deliberately avoiding U.S. soybean purchases and threatened trade retaliation on products such as cooking oil. France’s farm ministry slightly lifted its maize forecast to 13.7 mmt while trimming soft wheat to 33.2 mmt. In Brazil, CONAB raised its corn outlook to 138.6 mmt and lowered soybeans to 177.6 mmt. EU soft wheat exports reached 5.51 mmt as of October 14, though vessel line-up data pointed closer to 8.7 mmt. U.S. export inspections showed mixed performance, with soybeans lagging last year’s levels. Jordan bought 60k tons of milling wheat at $262.50/ton CnF. Meanwhile, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2%, noting that Trump’s tariffs had so far produced only modest effects. Wednesday Wheat prices softened again, while soybeans were steady and corn extended its gains above the 50-day moving average. The absence of USDA data continued to limit direction. FranceAgriMer cut soft wheat ending stocks to 2.79 mmt, citing lower output and stronger intra-EU exports, bringing inventories closer to the 5-year average. Russia finalized an agreement to resume wheat exports to Indonesia. NOPA reported a September soybean crush of 197.9 mbu, above expectations, with oil stocks down month-on-month. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. could prolong its tariff pause if China withdraws its planned rare-earth export curbs. Thursday Corn led a firm U.S. session, supported by steady demand and speculation that yields could later be revised lower. MATIF wheat weakened on euro strength and pressure to maintain export competitiveness. Egypt’s Future of Egypt reportedly purchased two French wheat cargoes at $240/ton FOB, while Morocco booked several vessels from Argentina amid expectations of a strong harvest there. In Australia, GIWA raised its Western Australian wheat forecast to 12.63 mmt, near a record. Algeria bought about 400k tons of durum wheat, mainly from North America. Political developments in France supported the euro, while Russia’s ruble appreciation reduced its daily wheat export tax to zero. Euronext confirmed a technical issue in previous COT data for milling wheat and pledged corrections. Friday Grains finished the week higher after President Trump confirmed plans to meet Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, improving sentiment, especially in soybeans. The rally was supported by optimism that U.S. yields may fall short of USDA’s latest projections. FranceAgriMer reported corn harvest at 56% complete, ahead of average, and soft wheat planting at 27%. CFTC data showed were net buyers last week—25.5k corn, 17.5k soybeans, 4.5k CBOT wheat—bringing total positions to roughly 99k net short in corn, 11k net long in soybeans, and 98k net short in wheat. Euronext’s corrected COT report showed non-commercials reducing their MATIF wheat net short by 13k contracts to 239.1k. The CBOT wheat–corn spread narrowed to its lowest level in eight years for this stage of the season, signaling that wheat is working to attract additional demand.

Weekly Freight Recap: 16/10/25 : Dry bulk sentiment was mixed this week as physical markets struggled to keep pace with more optimistic paper levels. Atlantic markets were largely steady with selective gains, while Pacific sentiment held firmer amid steady regional demand, though overall fixing volumes remained moderate. Atlantic: Handysize conditions in the Atlantic were uneven, with sentiment shaped by regional disparities. The Continent and Mediterranean saw muted activity and marginal softening as limited fresh cargo weighed on rates. The South Atlantic also faced a quieter environment with thinning enquiry, while the U.S. Gulf bucked the trend with a slightly firmer tone, supported by steady grains and petcoke demand. Although fixing volumes were light, expectations of improved activity ahead helped temper downside pressure. Owners with well-positioned tonnage managed to resist major rate concessions, maintaining an overall steady outlook into the new week. Pacific: The Pacific Handysize market remained balanced, holding firm against broader volatility. Sentiment was broadly stable as regional trade flows—particularly coal and steels—continued to underpin short-sea demand. A relatively tight supply of larger units in North Asia lent mild support to owners’ sentiment, even as fixing activity remained moderate. Charterers maintained a selective approach, but the equilibrium between supply and demand helped sustain rate stability. Market participants expect a gradual strengthening in the coming weeks as seasonal cargo demand builds and tonnage availability narrows across key loading areas. Atlantic: The Atlantic Supramax market held steady overall, though activity remained patchy. The U.S. Gulf was seen as having reached a floor, with tentative signs of improvement on front-haul routes. The South Atlantic showed early signs of recovery sentiment, though limited fresh enquiry kept rates largely stable. A generally balanced tonnage-to-cargo ratio prevented any major shifts in pricing, and owners with prompt positions continued to show flexibility to secure employment. Although the tone remained soft in parts, brokers noted growing confidence that the worst may have passed, especially as grain and mineral demand is expected to pick up later in the month. Pacific: The Pacific maintained a more constructive tone throughout the week, underpinned by increased enquiry from Southeast Asia and North Pacific rounds. Activity levels were modest but steady, and sentiment improved slightly as charterers re-entered the market following recent holidays. Nonetheless, an ample pool of prompt tonnage limited upward momentum. The overall balance between demand and supply helped maintain market stability, with owners focusing on shorter, quick-return business to preserve earnings. While rates remained within a narrow band, a gradual tightening trend is expected as regional demand strengthens heading into late October. Atlantic: Panamax activity across the Atlantic began the week on a firm footing but soon encountered resistance as charterers adopted a more cautious stance. Despite a solid cargo flow from the Continent and East Coast South America, rates remained broadly flat amid a widening bid-offer gap. The transatlantic market saw decent enquiry but lacked the momentum to drive significant upward movement, constrained by an ample tonnage list and softer forward sentiment. While the South Atlantic retained underlying strength, particularly for later positions, a muted paper market curbed owners’ optimism. By midweek, sentiment leaned steady-to-soft as participants awaited clearer directional cues, though some resistance persisted from owners with well-positioned units. Pacific: In the Pacific, trading was dominated by short-haul activity focused on Indonesia, with a high volume of coal and mineral stems maintaining market balance. However, the buoyant FFA sentiment seen earlier in the week failed to carry through into physical fixtures. Charterers remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainty linked to trade policy developments, keeping rates broadly rangebound. Despite this, the basin showed signs of resilience, supported by strong regional demand from East Coast Australia and Southeast Asia. Owners remained reluctant to concede further, with expectations that tightening vessel supply in late October could provide a firmer footing heading into the next week.

Agri- Commodities 06-10/10/25 : Monday CBOT traded mixed on Monday, with corn slightly higher while wheat and soybeans ended in the red. US corn shipments remained strong, but soybeans showed signs of weakness just as the US harvest ramped up. European wheat futures opened higher but gave up gains once EUR/USD rebounded from its initial dip, leaving front months unchanged. The market watched for details on the farmer aid promised by the US government, which may also have addressed the issue of Chinese demand. Tuesday MATIF milling wheat futures ended the day flat, even as US wheat futures moved lower. A weaker EUR/USD partly explained the divergence, but overall wheat remained near contract lows on both sides of the Atlantic. Supplies were ample for now, with fresh volumes expected soon from Australia and Argentina. Corn and soybeans moved in opposite directions as the market weighed final US yield prospects and the potential impact of the US–China trade war on US soybean exports. Wednesday Markets stayed quiet on Wednesday, with moves limited to within half a percent in wheat and corn. The suspension of USDA reports kept trading subdued, though the longer the delay, the bigger the surprises were expected to be once updates eventually came. Thursday Wheat prices initially found support after reports that a Russian drone strike damaged port infrastructure in Odesa, injuring five people and cutting power to more than 30,000. However, as history shows, such impacts on wheat prices tend to be short-lived. MATIF wheat prices finally showed some strength, gaining more than 1% in nearby contracts. The drop in EUR/USD improved EU wheat competitiveness, while additional support came from Tunisia’s new tender, Russia’s lower wheat planting outlook, and a rising war-risk premium. data illustrated how the recent currency movements improved EU wheat’s relative position against Black Sea and US origins. In contrast, US futures closed lower across the board, with no signs of improvement in US–China relations. Friday Major US stock indexes and energy futures tumbled on Friday as tensions between the US and China escalated sharply. Grains also felt the pressure, since soybeans were directly affected by the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations. The negative sentiment pushed the Chicago December wheat contract below the $5 level, a price not seen for the nearby December contract in more than five years. Markets briefly echoed 2017, when sharp grain moves often followed Trump’s social media comments. This time, he lashed out at Xi over China’s tighter rare-earth export controls, threatened new economic penalties, and hinted he might skip their planned meeting. Hours later, he announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and new export controls on “any and all critical software” starting Nov. 1.

Weekly Freight Recap: 09/10/25 : The dry bulk market opened the week on a subdued and largely positional tone, with activity levels muted across all segments. The Handysize and Supramax markets remained broadly steady amid ongoing Chinese holidays, while the Panamax segment continued to firm on tighter tonnage and steady cargo flow. In the Atlantic, sentiment held balanced with limited fresh enquiry, while the Pacific was constrained by widespread holidays that kept both owners and charterers in wait-and-see mode. Broader sentiment stayed cautious as market participants monitored potential trade disruptions and macroeconomic developments. It was another subdued session for the Handysize market, with the BHSI closing at 868 and the 7TC average edging up by $31 to $15,631. In the Continent and Mediterranean, activity stayed muted and sentiment positional, with most rates holding around last-done levels. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf maintained a steady tone, though the absence of new demand may weigh on sentiment in the near term. Asian markets remained quiet, with the ongoing Golden Week holidays limiting both cargo and tonnage movement. No significant shifts in fundamentals are expected until trading activity resumes next week. The Negmar Cicek was reportedly fixed from Tuzla via Hereke to Guyana at around $12,500, while the Tai Honor was heard fixed from Jingtang to West Coast India in the high $16,000s, and the Darya Kavri from Zhoushan for an Australia round trip in the low $14,000s, though further details were not disclosed. Supramax rates fell further as weaker sentiment persisted. The 11TC average dropped by $175 to $17,832, with limited fresh enquiry and increasing tonnage availability. The U.S. Gulf remained quiet, while the South Atlantic lacked new momentum. The Continent saw minor resistance supported by scrap cargoes, though the Mediterranean retained a more positional tone. In Asia, widespread holidays kept trading thin, with expectations that activity may improve once operations resume. Reported fixtures included the ZH Chang Xing basis Lagos for a trip via Kpeme to East Coast India at about $25,000–$26,000, while the Aruna Berk was said to have failed on a similar run from Owendo at $21,250. Older fixtures resurfaced from the Indian Ocean, including the Sety fixed delivery Mumbai for a Richards Bay–Japan trip at $13,500, and the Geosand from Kandla to the Philippines in the low $10,000s. The Panamax market maintained its upward trajectory, with the BPI time charter average rising by $264 to $15,252. The Atlantic saw healthy levels of activity, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul routes performing well amid tight tonnage in the North, while the South Atlantic remained largely stable. The Pacific also strengthened as limited spot tonnage and firm cargo flow from Australia and NoPac prompted charterers to pay above last-done levels. Despite early-week softness due to holidays, the segment ended the week with firmer sentiment and growing owner confidence heading into mid-October. Fixtures included the Antonia S , which reportedly failed on a U.S. Gulf–Passero trip at $15,250, while the JY Lake fixed from ECSA to Skaw–Gibraltar at $26,000. In Asia, the Golden Lion was fixed via Australia to Japan in the low $18,000s, the Hampton Ocean on an Australia round at $16,250, and the Marathassa fixed Geraldton–China iron ore at just under $18,000. The Nord Saturn secured an Australia–India trip around $14,000–$14,500, and the Barwon was heard to have fixed a Taboneo–North Asia trip at $18,000. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Bulk rates slide after talk of Chinese ban on iron ore imports The Baltic Dry Index fell over 7% to 1,980 points following reports that China may ban imports of iron ore from Australia’s BHP Group. Bloomberg reported that China’s state-owned iron ore buyer instructed steel producers and traders to halt new purchases from BHP amid ongoing price negotiations. The move has pushed capesize rates to their lowest in nearly a month and dampened sentiment across dry bulk segments. The potential restriction, which follows unsuccessful meetings between BHP and Chinese authorities, raised concerns about a broader slowdown, prompting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to voice his apprehension. Eastern Pacific Shipping replaces ammonia with LNG for bulkers order Eastern Pacific Shipping (EPS) has replaced plans to build 14 ammonia dual-fuel bulkers with LNG-powered vessels, citing weak customer demand and infrastructure readiness concerns. The decision marks a tactical shift for the Singapore-based operator, which maintains a fleet of 329 vessels. While the newcastlemax programme has been transitioned to LNG, EPS emphasized that its ammonia commitment remains intact, with four ammonia dual-fuel Very Large Ammonia Carriers (VLACs) scheduled for delivery from 2027. The company noted that LNG and other dual-fuel technologies will continue to play a key transitional role as the industry aligns with evolving regulatory and market conditions.

Weekly Freight Recap: 2/10/25 : The dry bulk market opened the week on a subdued and largely positional tone, with activity levels muted across all segments. The Handysize and Supramax markets remained broadly steady amid ongoing Chinese holidays, while the Panamax segment continued to firm on tighter tonnage and steady cargo flow. In the Atlantic, sentiment held balanced with limited fresh enquiry, while the Pacific was constrained by widespread holidays that kept both owners and charterers in wait-and-see mode. Broader sentiment stayed cautious as market participants monitored potential trade disruptions and macroeconomic developments. It was another subdued session for the Handysize market, with the BHSI closing at 868 and the 7TC average edging up by $31 to $15,631. In the Continent and Mediterranean, activity stayed muted and sentiment positional, with most rates holding around last-done levels. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf maintained a steady tone, though the absence of new demand may weigh on sentiment in the near term. Asian markets remained quiet, with the ongoing Golden Week holidays limiting both cargo and tonnage movement. No significant shifts in fundamentals are expected until trading activity resumes next week. The Negmar Cicek was reportedly fixed from Tuzla via Hereke to Guyana at around $12,500, while the Tai Honor was heard fixed from Jingtang to West Coast India in the high $16,000s, and the Darya Kavri from Zhoushan for an Australia round trip in the low $14,000s, though further details were not disclosed. Supramax rates fell further as weaker sentiment persisted. The 11TC average dropped by $175 to $17,832, with limited fresh enquiry and increasing tonnage availability. The U.S. Gulf remained quiet, while the South Atlantic lacked new momentum. The Continent saw minor resistance supported by scrap cargoes, though the Mediterranean retained a more positional tone. In Asia, widespread holidays kept trading thin, with expectations that activity may improve once operations resume. Reported fixtures included the ZH Chang Xing basis Lagos for a trip via Kpeme to East Coast India at about $25,000–$26,000, while the Aruna Berk was said to have failed on a similar run from Owendo at $21,250. Older fixtures resurfaced from the Indian Ocean, including the Sety fixed delivery Mumbai for a Richards Bay–Japan trip at $13,500, and the Geosand from Kandla to the Philippines in the low $10,000s. The Panamax market maintained its upward trajectory, with the BPI time charter average rising by $264 to $15,252. The Atlantic saw healthy levels of activity, with both trans-Atlantic and fronthaul routes performing well amid tight tonnage in the North, while the South Atlantic remained largely stable. The Pacific also strengthened as limited spot tonnage and firm cargo flow from Australia and NoPac prompted charterers to pay above last-done levels. Despite early-week softness due to holidays, the segment ended the week with firmer sentiment and growing owner confidence heading into mid-October. Fixtures included the Antonia S , which reportedly failed on a U.S. Gulf–Passero trip at $15,250, while the JY Lake fixed from ECSA to Skaw–Gibraltar at $26,000. In Asia, the Golden Lion was fixed via Australia to Japan in the low $18,000s, the Hampton Ocean on an Australia round at $16,250, and the Marathassa fixed Geraldton–China iron ore at just under $18,000. The Nord Saturn secured an Australia–India trip around $14,000–$14,500, and the Barwon was heard to have fixed a Taboneo–North Asia trip at $18,000. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin The Baltic Dry Index fell over 7% to 1,980 points following reports that China may ban imports of iron ore from Australia’s BHP Group. Bloomberg reported that China’s state-owned iron ore buyer instructed steel producers and traders to halt new purchases from BHP amid ongoing price negotiations. The move has pushed capesize rates to their lowest in nearly a month and dampened sentiment across dry bulk segments. The potential restriction, which follows unsuccessful meetings between BHP and Chinese authorities, raised concerns about a broader slowdown, prompting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to voice his apprehension. Eastern Pacific Shipping (EPS) has replaced plans to build 14 ammonia dual-fuel bulkers with LNG-powered vessels, citing weak customer demand and infrastructure readiness concerns. The decision marks a tactical shift for the Singapore-based operator, which maintains a fleet of 329 vessels. While the newcastlemax programme has been transitioned to LNG, EPS emphasized that its ammonia commitment remains intact, with four ammonia dual-fuel Very Large Ammonia Carriers (VLACs) scheduled for delivery from 2027. The company noted that LNG and other dual-fuel technologies will continue to play a key transitional role as the industry aligns with evolving regulatory and market conditions.

Agri- Commodities 29-03/10/25 : Monday The week began with a relatively slow session, as prices moved in narrow ranges on low volumes ahead of USDA reports due this evening. Being the last day of the month and the quarter, some position-squaring could take place, and the increased liquidity from the reports may provide the opportunity. Tuesday Bearish USDA reports gave funds no reason to cover their short positions and instead encouraged additional selling, pushing corn and wheat prices lower. Nearby wheat contracts are again trading at new lows in both European and U.S. futures. Wednesday Grains stayed under pressure as markets continued digesting bearish USDA data, but quickly bounced after Donald Trump weighed in on social media. December MATIF milling wheat started off weak, sliding to new contract lows, but found support at the key 185 EUR level as that move helped make European wheat more competitive in export markets. Thursday Prices moved higher across the board. With U.S. weekly releases now halted indefinitely, fresh news was limited, but after recent pressure on prices, Trump’s comments were enough to spark a recovery. Whether some kind of trade agreement can be reached between the U.S. and China remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the absence of Chinese demand is becoming increasingly painful for U.S. farmers. Friday Grains ended mostly lower after a week that brought fresh lows in wheat, a rebound in soybeans, and new record highs in U.S. stock indices despite the ongoing partial government shutdown. The latter has left traders without access to key U.S. ag data. The week’s movements underscored how quickly trade sentiment can shift across regions, with competitiveness and export dynamics best tracked through , as markets now look to the results of Saudi Arabia’s wheat tender to set the tone for sentiment in the days ahead

Weekly Freight Recap: 2/10/25 : The dry bulk market displayed mixed conditions, with Handysize maintaining its upward momentum, Supramax undergoing further corrections, and Panamax continuing to weaken across both basins. Atlantic activity showed some resilience in smaller segments, while Asia was muted due to regional holidays. Broader sentiment in larger segments remained under pressure, influenced by excess tonnage and soft FFA signals. The Handysize market continued its upward trend, with the BHSI closing at 860 and the 7TC average rising $78 to $15,478. In the Continent and Mediterranean, fundamentals stayed firm, supported by fresh demand despite limited reported fixtures. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf held a positive tone, with stronger demand pushing rates higher. In Asia, trading slowed with the onset of China’s autumn holiday, but rates managed to hold steady. Fixtures included activity on fertiliser runs out of Antwerp and grains ex-Baltic into the Mediterranean, as well as East African positions moving towards the Med in the mid-teens. Supramax sentiment remained under pressure, with the 11TC average slipping by $87 to $18,537. Atlantic activity showed some resilience, particularly from the Continent where scrap demand lent support, though U.S. Gulf fronthaul momentum appeared to wane. The South Atlantic remained balanced with little change. In Asia, the long holiday period kept trading subdued, and the tonnage list weighed on rates across regional and Indian Ocean markets. Reported fixtures included rounds from the Philippines to Australia at $16,500, India-related trips in the mid-$16,000s, and fronthaul petcoke runs out of Umm Qasr at levels in the upper $18,000s. Period interest was noted but with wide bid-offer spreads, reflecting cautious sentiment. The Panamax market registered further losses, with the BPI timecharter average falling $464 to $15,521. In the Atlantic, thinning trans-Atlantic volumes and limited mineral demand kept pressure on rates, while fronthaul demand from the U.S. East Coast failed to offset the build-up of open ships. East Coast South America weakened further as charterers pushed levels down. In the Pacific, Golden Week left the market thin, with most Chinese demand already covered and fresh fixtures concluding below last done. Notable fixtures included minerals ex-Kamsar to Europe at $17,500, and EC South America trips into Asia in the mid-$16,000s. Pacific rounds also saw softer returns, with ships in North China fixed in the low-to-mid $15,000s range. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Dry cargo rates suffer after talk of Chinese ban on iron ore purchases Reports emerged that China Mineral Resources Group has asked major steelmakers and traders to halt purchases of BHP’s dollar-denominated iron ore cargoes. The Baltic Dry Index fell more than 7% to 1,980 points, its lowest in nearly a month, while capesize indices dropped sharply. The move comes amid price negotiations between BHP and Chinese buyers, following a series of unsuccessful meetings. The news triggered concern from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, particularly as BHP has already reported its weakest profit in five years due to softer Chinese demand. Wärtsilä says carriers’ enthusiasm for methanol engines is levelling out According to Wärtsilä Marine, orders for methanol-capable ship engines have flattened after several years of sharp growth. The main limitation is the availability of green methanol, with most current supply derived from natural gas. DNV data shows that while methanol-powered ships have increased to 117 in 2025, growth may stagnate at around 435 by 2033. Container carriers lead the orderbook, with Maersk holding more than three-quarters of the fleet. Meanwhile, ammonia-fuel technology is expected to develop more slowly, with the first vessels likely by 2026. Industry outlook remains dependent on regulatory certainty, fuel supply, and infrastructure expansion, with the IMO’s upcoming Net Zero Framework vote set to play a key role.

Agri- Commodities 22-26/09/25 : Monday Grain markets opened the week under pressure after Argentina suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat, and by-products. The move sparked expectations of aggressive short-term sales, sending Chicago wheat to fresh contract lows and weighing on soybeans and soy products. MATIF wheat held just above recent lows ahead of Algeria’s tender, though sentiment remained weak as U.S. futures fell again and the euro strengthened to 1.18. U.S. inspections showed lighter soybean and corn volumes, while wheat topped expectations. Crop progress confirmed steady harvest advances but slight condition declines, with winter wheat planting just behind forecasts. Tuesday Wheat futures rebounded modestly from oversold levels after fresh contract lows in both Chicago and Paris. Political developments added to volatility as Donald Trump declared Ukraine could reclaim all lost territory with NATO backing. In trade flows, China booked at least 10 soybean cargoes from Argentina for November delivery, immediately showing the competitive effect of the temporary tax holiday. Algeria secured up to 690k tons of wheat at higher prices than its July tender, while Jordan and Turkey were also active in tenders. U.S. flash sales continued, with corn again leading the way. Wednesday Midweek trading was mixed, with wheat briefly supported by reports of drone strikes at Russian ports before attention shifted back to fundamentals. IKAR raised Russian wheat and barley output forecasts, underscoring strong supply, while the U.S. harvest advanced steadily. Argentina reinstated export taxes after exporters maxed out the $7 billion duty-free quota in just a few days, ensuring a surge of shipments into the market. USDA confirmed soybean meal sales to Guatemala, while positioning data showed non-commercials trimming net shorts in MATIF wheat and rapeseed. Thursday Grains and oilseeds steadied as Argentina’s tax holiday ended, with the quota already exhausted. Focus shifted toward the upcoming USDA stocks report. In policy, the American Soybean Association criticized U.S. support for Argentina while China imported its soybeans, urging protection for U.S. farmers. Trump announced tariff revenues would be used for farmer relief. U.S. weekly export sales showed solid corn demand but weaker soybeans, with no signs of Chinese buying. Wheat demand was supported by improved import forecasts in Nigeria. The EU raised wheat and barley production forecasts but cut maize, highlighting diverging crop conditions. Friday The week closed with wheat and corn under pressure, while soybeans edged higher. Favorable U.S. harvest weather is set to accelerate progress and likely weigh on prices in the near term. France’s corn harvest advanced slightly ahead of average, while Argentina still held significant volumes of soymeal, oil, and corn available for export, worth nearly $5 billion. data confirmed funds increasing net shorts in corn and wheat while turning soybeans net short, underscoring bearish sentiment heading into USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports.

Weekly Freight Recap: 25/09/25: The dry bulk market showed a split tone. Handysize remained constructive on selective strength, Supramax was steady-to-softer with Atlantic support offset by Pacific pressure, and Panamax firmed on the day with more activity in both basins. Regional dynamics were shaped by tight spots in North Pacific Handysize supply, steadier U.S. Gulf/South Atlantic demand, and Pacific Panamax coverage ahead of China’s Golden Week alongside weather-related congestion. It was a more active session overall with positive sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals. The BHSI closed at 824 and the 7TC average gained to $14,834. Europe held firm despite limited visible fixing; the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic showed a livelier tone but rates were broadly steady. Asia stayed resilient on a North Pacific tonnage shortage. Illustrative fixtures included Houston–UKC petcoke around the mid-$20,000s/day and Santos-based short period reported around the mid-$17,000s. Elsewhere, selective Atlantic route strength was seen with Paranaguá/Santos to USG grains near the low-$20,000s/day, while quieter Pacific lists built in Southeast Asia and the North Pacific. Atlantic sentiment remained broadly positive—helped by steady demand in the U.S. Gulf and firmer tones further north—though some views in the South Atlantic turned cautious. In contrast, Asia moved lower again as limited fresh inquiry and prompt tonnage buildup kept charterers in control. The 11TC edged down, with Atlantic fixtures illustrating continued employment (e.g., West Africa/Med and North Africa–West Africa clinker/corn runs), while Indian Ocean rounds were reported at softer levels. The market diverged by basin. The Atlantic struggled for momentum with limited new inquiry and growing lists, but trans-Atlantic routes still posted gains as charterers competed for scarce prompt units. The Pacific was more active, supported by steady Indonesia/Australia demand, pre-Golden Week coverage, and typhoon-related congestion tightening supply; benchmark averages ticked up on publishing. Selected fixtures spanned ECSA aps attempts for Med delivery and North Atlantic trips via USG to Skaw-Gib, while Asia saw multiple Australia rounds concluded in the mid-teens to high-teens range. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Exclusive—Ukrainian Railways plans freight tariff increase to tackle debt Ukrainian Railways outlined a recovery plan under government review that includes higher freight tariffs amid lower cargo volumes and escalating war-related costs. The company cited reduced coal, ore, and grain flows since early 2022, deferred Eurobond payments, rising power and fuel costs, and the need for new revenue sources. Some industrial customers warned that increases could not be passed through. Shipping faces ‘stormy seas’ as trade slows and costs rise UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025 flagged fragile growth with a 0.5% seaborne trade rise expected in 2025, rerouting pressures from Red Sea/Hormuz tensions, elevated and volatile freight costs, port congestion, and lagging digitalisation. Emissions increased in 2024, with limited alternative-fuel readiness, and seafarer abandonment cases reached a record high. Policy priorities include stable trade rules, greener infrastructure, faster digitalisation, and support for vulnerable economies.

Agri- Commodities 15-19/09/25 : Monday Corn prices plunged to start the week, erasing Friday’s surge and realigning with USDA’s supply outlook. Wheat and soybeans briefly rallied on news of an upcoming Trump–Xi call but lost momentum as doubts over Chinese buying resurfaced. The euro strengthened toward 1.18 against the dollar, raising concerns about EU competitiveness. Export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat all came in above expectations, while USDA confirmed a flash corn sale of 149k tons. NOPA reported August crush at 189.8 mbu, above forecasts, though down from July. Corn and soybean conditions slipped, harvest progress lagged expectations for corn, and U.S. winter wheat planting was slower than average. Tuesday Grains gained across the board, led by U.S. wheat futures, which closed more than 1.5% higher on dollar weakness. Corn and soybeans also rose on yield concerns and optimism ahead of Trump–Xi talks, though expectations remained cautious. MATIF wheat saw limited gains as a stronger euro offset support. France lifted its soft wheat forecast to 33.3 mmt but cut maize to 13.6 mmt. EU wheat exports reached 3.78 mmt, though incomplete data suggest volumes near 6.4 mmt. Jordan passed on a wheat tender. Markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision, with a first rate cut since December widely anticipated and two more priced in by year-end. Wednesday European wheat advanced on improved French export prospects, while U.S. wheat slipped despite dollar weakness. Markets stayed focused on the Trump–Xi call, though Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases raised trade tensions and weighed on grains. FranceAgriMer lowered soft wheat ending stocks but still projected levels above last year. Statistics Canada lifted wheat and canola production, pressuring U.S. futures. Jordan bought 60k tons of feed barley, while speculative showed record net shorts in MATIF wheat and lighter shorts in rapeseed. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point and signaled further easing, briefly pushing EUR/USD above 1.19 before settling back. Thursday Wheat markets were largely flat in Europe, while CBOT posted losses for a second straight session. Traders cited mixed signals from dollar moves, uncertain U.S. yield outcomes, and continued absence of Chinese soybean demand. The International Grains Council raised global wheat production to 819 mmt but cut corn output to 1,297 mmt. Coceral lifted EU wheat and barley forecasts but lowered corn. Brazil’s CONAB projected soybean output at 177.7 mmt and corn at 138.3 mmt, both above USDA estimates. U.S. weekly export sales were mid-range for corn and soybeans but weak for wheat, with an additional 110k tons of corn sold to Mexico. Friday Soybeans fell to new weekly lows after the Trump–Xi call delivered no agricultural commitments, while wheat’s rebound faded. Algeria tendered for November wheat, and Russia raised its wheat export duty. USDA confirmed another flash corn sale, totaling 206.5k tons, following Thursday’s deal to Mexico. Fund data showed corn shorts reduced, soybean positions turning net long, and wheat shorts modestly trimmed. U.S. political gridlock over funding risked a government shutdown, threatening disruptions to key agricultural reports and weighing on the dollar.

Weekly Freight Recap: 18/09/25 : The dry bulk market showed a mixed performance, with Handysize remaining steady, Supramax gaining marginally, and Panamax undergoing further corrections. Regional dynamics varied, with the Atlantic maintaining firmer tones in certain segments while the Pacific continued to face pressure from excess tonnage. Broader developments in rail and logistics infrastructure highlight ongoing efforts to improve freight connectivity and efficiency. The Handysize market experienced another subdued session, with sentiment largely flat across basins. The BHSI edged up by one point to 805, while the 7TC average rose slightly by $22 to close at $14,488. The Continent and Mediterranean saw little movement, with rates holding steady. In the South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf, demand showed gradual improvement, providing modest upward support. The Asian market also remained stable on balanced fundamentals. On the fixtures side, activity was limited, with petcoke and period business reported in the Arabian Gulf, though rates remained at modest levels. The Supramax sector recorded slight gains, with the 11TC average up $17 to $18,861. Fundamentals remained largely unchanged, but sentiment in the Atlantic stayed firmer. The U.S. Gulf led with strong numbers, supported by a shortage of prompt tonnage, while the South Atlantic held balanced conditions and West Africa showed some upward pressure. The Continent and Mediterranean also maintained stability despite abundant tonnage. In Asia, sentiment was weaker, but select fixtures from Indonesia and North Pacific pointed to improved interest. Activity ahead of China’s Golden Week and increased coal and nickel ore movements in Southeast Asia provided some optimism. In the Indian Ocean, levels were subdued, though iron ore and coal cargoes lent some support along the East Coast of India. The Panamax market continued its correction, with the BPI timecharter index down by $404 to $17,308. In the Atlantic, the North Atlantic was muted, with charterers holding firm amid limited demand, while the South Atlantic also posted further softness despite light activity. Fixtures linked to major charterers were noted, though details remained thin. In the Pacific, the market saw minor adjustments, with NoPac activity providing some stability. However, excess tonnage in the South Pacific weighed on sentiment. Australian rounds held at low levels, though support from East Coast South America grain flows gave some owners longer-term positioning opportunities. Indonesian coal runs showed gradual firming, with owners attempting to push rates higher, though charterers resisted further increases. Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Railways Prepares DPRs For 26 Projects In Andhra Pradesh, Including Bullet Train Corridors The Indian Railways is preparing detailed project reports for 26 projects covering 1,960 km in Andhra Pradesh. These include new railway lines, bypasses, and additional capacity on busy freight routes. High-speed bullet train corridors between Hyderabad–Bengaluru and Hyderabad–Chennai will traverse the state. To relieve freight congestion, extra lines are planned on the Vijayawada–Chennai, Vijayawada–Hyderabad, and Vijayawada–Visakhapatnam corridors, with further expansions considered on mineral-heavy routes feeding Visakhapatnam port. Logistics and Freight Industry Leaders Address Major Challenges Facing the Sector A coalition of UK logistics leaders under the Alliance of Logistics Trade Associations (ALTA) met in London to align strategies on key sector challenges. Priorities included tackling workforce shortages through apprenticeship schemes, supporting driver recruitment, and advancing digitalisation and AI to ease border friction. Members also emphasized infrastructure priorities such as the Lower Thames Crossing and A14/Orwell Bridge, as well as the importance of freight in government strategy. Rising operational costs and decarbonisation efforts were highlighted, with calls for joint industry–government roadmaps to accelerate the transition to net zero.

Agri- Commodities 08-12/09/25 : Monday The week opened with wheat leading a modest rally, Kansas futures gaining more than 2% in what appeared to be an overdue correction in an oversold market. Chicago and MATIF contracts followed with smaller advances, while corn and soybeans also firmed ahead of the US crop progress update and Friday’s WASDE. Despite the bounce, trading volumes suggested short liquidation in wheat had not yet begun in earnest. Sovecon raised its 2025 Russian wheat forecast to 86.1 mmt, broadly matching IKAR, while US crop ratings slipped only marginally. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans steady but wheat sharply lower. Tuesday Tuesday saw prices retreat in a quiet, low-volume session as traders remained cautious ahead of the USDA report. Wheat markets stayed pinned near contract lows, under pressure from heavy fund shorts. Global demand signals were subdued, though tenders from Iran and Jordan highlighted continued buyer interest. EU wheat export data confirmed a slow start compared with last year, while Statistics Canada reported sharply lower wheat and canola stocks, though both came in above USDA expectations. Outside agriculture, revised US labor data showing significant job weakness added weight to expectations of rate cuts. Wednesday Midweek, pressure on wheat deepened as both IKAR and Sovecon lifted Russian production forecasts to around 87 mmt, with stronger yields in Siberia and the Urals reinforcing a bearish tone. The ruble’s continued decline accelerated the rise in Russia’s export tax, while fund shorts in MATIF wheat reached fresh records. Corn and soybeans edged lower in narrow ranges, with Argentina’s Rosario Exchange raising corn production estimates and projecting record output potential next season. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced as Poland downed Russian drones and Donald Trump called for EU tariffs against China and India. Thursday On Thursday, grains staged a modest rebound, but most of the move appeared to be final positioning before the WASDE. CONAB raised both corn and soybean forecasts in Brazil, likely putting pressure on USDA to follow. Weekly US export sales were modest but in line with seasonal expectations, while macro news was dominated by steady central bank policies in Europe and Russia. Friday Friday delivered a sharp reversal, with corn futures surging more than 2% on heavy volume despite USDA’s report coming in neutral to bearish. A surprise upward revision in planted area lifted production above expectations, though USDA boosted exports to prevent an excessive rise in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat followed higher, aided by fund covering and concerns over fungal disease in corn that may prompt future yield cuts. On the global side, USDA projected steep year-on-year increases in wheat and corn output, while China’s corn import profile was cut again. Russia raised its wheat export duty nearly threefold.

Weekly Freight Recap: 11/09/25: Dry bulk sentiment remained broadly positive this week, led by further gains in the Panamax sector as tight tonnage and resilient demand supported higher returns across both basins. Supramax rates also advanced, with the Atlantic maintaining firm momentum despite softer undertones in parts of Asia. The Handysize market recorded modest improvements, though performance varied by region, leaving overall sentiment steady with a cautiously constructive bias. Atlantic: The Atlantic Panamax market extended its upward run, supported by constrained tonnage lists and healthy mineral and grain demand from the US East Coast, Colombia, and Baltic regions. ECSA sentiment was steadier, with October requirements providing a floor to values, though some participants sensed a softer undertone on forward dates. Owners maintained a stronger negotiating position, resisting discounts and holding firm on ideas. Overall, sentiment remained bullish, with fundamentals supporting further strength if October cargo flows materialize as expected. Pacific: In the Pacific, the tone was similarly upbeat as fresh enquiry from North Pacific and Australian load areas combined with consistent Indonesian coal demand to bolster sentiment. Rates improved steadily through the week, with charterers competing to secure prompt cover and owners retaining the upper hand. Southern tonnage remained tight, adding to the upward pressure. Despite some bid resistance, the overall balance favored owners, and sentiment stayed constructive into the close. The BPI timecharter average advanced by $467 across the week, finishing at $17,778. Period activity also remained supportive, with steady appetite for short- to medium-term cover reflecting confidence in Q4 demand. Atlantic: The Supramax market displayed steady strength across most Atlantic regions. The US Gulf remained firm on consistent cargo flow, with owners achieving improved returns. In the South Atlantic, a tighter tonnage list and healthy enquiry supported firmer sentiment, leaving charterers with fewer options and encouraging higher bids. The Continent–Mediterranean was more balanced, with limited fresh enquiry restraining upward movement, though levels generally held ground. Pacific: By contrast, the Pacific Supramax market was less decisive. Northern areas showed some stability on periodic bursts of demand, but southern regions were softer, with limited enquiry weighing on sentiment. Owners attempted to resist concessions, yet oversupply in certain load areas capped earnings. The 11TC average posted a modest $59 gain, closing the week at $18,677. Atlantic: The Handysize market held a mixed tone. The Continent and Mediterranean saw only minor upward adjustments, with sentiment steady but lacking fresh impetus. The South Atlantic, however, maintained positive momentum, underpinned by consistent demand and manageable tonnage availability. The US Gulf slowed, with weaker cargo volumes leading to softer returns for prompt positions. Pacific: In Asia, activity remained thin but sentiment broadly steady. Owners held rates firm despite limited fixing opportunities, with market balance maintained across northern and southern load areas. While not dynamic, the region avoided downward pressure, leaving the segment supported on a cautious footing. The BHSI gained six points to reach 798, with the 7TC average up $112 at $14,364.

Agri- Commodities 01-04/09/25 : Monday With U.S. markets closed for the holiday, traded volumes in MATIF milling wheat fell below recent averages, but sentiment was clearly negative. Reports of falling Russian export prices added to the pressure, while a stronger euro weighed further on European contracts. U.S. export inspections and crop progress reports were postponed until Tuesday, leaving the market with limited fresh input. Tuesday U.S. wheat futures declined sharply as they caught up with European markets, which had already moved lower and set fresh contract lows a day earlier. Soybeans followed the same path, pressured by the lack of progress in U.S.–China trade discussions and continued absence of Chinese demand. Corn, however, managed to recover from early losses, buoyed by persistent concerns over U.S. yields and firmer demand compared with other grains. Wednesday Corn and soybean prices retreated again, despite weaker U.S. crop ratings that might normally have offered some support. Wheat was unable to find direction from corn and slipped for a second straight session on the C-B-O-T. MATIF wheat futures traded narrowly but posted another new contract low in December, briefly dipping under the 190 Eur threshold, underscoring the market’s continued bearish tone. Thursday Trading was choppy in corn and soybeans, with prices moving lower during the day before staging a late reversal into positive territory. Wheat futures across the board struggled once again, marking new contract lows in December MATIF, Chicago, and Kansas contracts. The question of how much downside remains has become more pressing, with prices already sitting at multi-year lows and fund positioning increasingly in focus. Friday Grains ended the week under pressure, mirroring broader weakness in financial markets. Corn gave back gains from earlier in the week, retreating from a six-week high as short covering eased ahead of official U.S. yield estimates. Wheat stayed weighed down by ample global supply and disappointing U.S. export sales, while soybeans slipped further on soft export demand and ongoing absence of Chinese buying. Looking ahead, markets are preparing for a busy week with the U.S. inflation report and ECB interest rate decision due Thursday, followed by the USDA WASDE release on Friday.

Weekly Freight Recap: 04/09/25: Weekly Dry Bulk Recap Dry bulk sentiment turned softer this week, led by notable declines in Panamax indices as oversupply weighed heavily on both Atlantic and Pacific markets. Supramax rates steadied after earlier strength but began to lose momentum in Asia, while Handysize trade remained broadly balanced with only marginal shifts in sentiment. Atlantic: The Atlantic Panamax market entered September under sustained pressure, with enquiry thin and charterers retaining a clear advantage. Limited activity from key grain routes, particularly out of South America, weighed on sentiment as owners increasingly accepted discounts to secure cover. Transatlantic volumes were subdued, and even front-haul opportunities offered little relief, leaving owners competing aggressively for scarce stems. The supply overhang was particularly acute as early ballasters and prompt units crowded the market, leading to a steady erosion in sentiment. Overall, conditions remained unbalanced, with charterers firmly in control. Pacific: In the Pacific, a similar pattern unfolded as tonnage availability outpaced demand. A lack of consistent enquiry from both North Pacific and Australian origins placed pressure on regional earnings, with owners unable to resist downward moves from charterers. Despite some ballasting to the Atlantic, oversupply persisted, keeping values under strain. Sentiment weakened further as charterers leveraged the abundance of tonnage to drive rates lower, with little sign of relief until export volumes increase. The week closed on a notably softer tone, with both basins showing parallel weakness and forward momentum absent. Atlantic: The Supramax segment demonstrated relative resilience through the past weeks, buoyed by steady enquiry from the US Gulf, South America, and Mediterranean ranges. However, as September began, momentum slowed with fresh activity more sporadic. In the US Gulf, sentiment remained balanced but with growing divergence between charterers’ and owners’ expectations. The South Atlantic also steadied, holding ground but lacking sufficient new business to push levels higher. Overall, the Atlantic market displayed a finely poised balance, with rates largely underpinned but requiring renewed cargo support to avoid softening. Pacific: By contrast, the Pacific Supramax market turned more negative as prompt tonnage availability built against limited fresh demand. Enquiry levels from Southeast Asia and North Pacific origins were muted, leading to widening bid–offer gaps. Owners sought to resist downward adjustments but charterers maintained the upper hand, resulting in a gradual erosion of sentiment. Earlier optimism in the basin, driven by a tighter northern list, faded quickly as oversupply became evident. The shift marked a clear divergence from prior weeks, with the Pacific dragging on overall segment performance despite steadier conditions in the Atlantic. Atlantic: The Handysize market presented a generally steady picture, with little movement across major Atlantic regions. In the Continent and Mediterranean, sentiment was flat and activity restrained, while in the US Gulf and South America, enquiry remained light and bid–offer spreads limited progress. Charterers held a slight advantage given the lack of urgency from the cargo side, though rates overall held firm. The balance of positions in these regions suggested limited volatility, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see stance until demand returns in greater volume. Pacific: In Asia, Handysize sentiment remained broadly stable, supported by a slight tightening of tonnage in certain pockets, though overall levels of activity were modest. North Pacific and Southeast Asia both saw limited fresh business, with owners and charterers negotiating within narrow ranges. The regional market retained a cautious tone, with isolated fixtures failing to generate a clear directional trend. Overall, the Pacific balance kept earnings steady, reflecting the broader subdued but stable pattern observed across the global Handysize segment.

Agri- Commodities 25-29/08/25 : Monday Soybeans fell, while C-B-O-T wheat and corn closed in the green, though both retreated from intraday highs as the dollar strengthened. A weaker euro supported M-A-T-I-F wheat, which rebounded but remains in back-and-forth trade. U.S. corn and soybean condition ratings came in stronger than expected, though findings from last week’s crop tour continue to cast doubt on the USDA’s corn yield projection. Tuesday Grains lacked clear direction, closing mixed within a 1% range. Reports that China’s top negotiator will visit the U.S. lifted soybeans early, but optimism faded as doubts remained about any breakthrough. A surprise increase in U.S. soybean condition ratings pointed to potential for a strong crop, limiting gains. Wheat prices were mixed, with Chicago slightly higher, M-A-T-I-F steady, and Kansas December futures dropping to new contract lows. Wednesday Prices fell across the board. Wheat stayed under the most pressure, with Kansas December wheat setting fresh contract lows and M-A-T-I-F wheat hovering just 1 euro above the same level. A generally solid wheat crop allowed buyers to stick to hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies. Corn’s rally from the U.S. crop tour also lost momentum, with prices posting a second consecutive daily decline. Thursday U.S. wheat and corn futures overcame early weakness to close higher on short covering, aided by a weaker dollar. The last trading day of the month brought position adjustments ahead of the U.S. long weekend and the first notice day for C-B-O-T September contracts. In Europe, M-A-T-I-F wheat continued its decline, with December prices moving toward the 190 level. Friday Corn surged about 2.5% in the most liquid contract, ending the month strongly as skepticism grew over the USDA’s optimistic yield outlook. Fund data confirmed active buying through last Tuesday, with momentum likely persisting into the weekend. Wheat followed corn higher but still ended the month lower overall. Seasonally, September tends to offer firmer ground for wheat prices.

Weekly Freight Recap: 28/08/25 : Overview The dry bulk market maintained firm momentum this week across all major segments, with Handysize, Supramax, and Panamax indices showing gains. Stronger sentiment in both Atlantic and Pacific basins was underpinned by tight tonnage lists in key regions and renewed demand for grains, coal, and industrial commodities. Period activity remained steady, adding further support to market confidence. Handysize The Handysize segment continued its upward trajectory, with the BHSI advancing to 735 and the 7TC average climbing $182 to $13,236. Conditions in the Continent and Mediterranean stayed firm despite slow activity, while South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf markets gained momentum as charterers faced tighter tonnage. In Asia, activity was quieter but sentiment remained positive. Fixtures highlighted steady demand, including trips ex-Mississippi River and EC Mexico, with rates holding in the mid-to-high $14,000s to $20,000s range. Supramax The Supramax market strengthened further, with the BSI reaching 1,437 and the 11TC average closing at $18,165, later rising to $18,291. The Atlantic remained active, supported by fresh demand in the Continent–Mediterranean and firming fundamentals in the South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf. Asia showed renewed enquiry, driving rates above last done, particularly for Indonesia–China and Arabian Gulf–India routes. Period activity was firm, with several 2–6 month fixtures concluded at rates between $13,000 and $19,000, underscoring owners’ bullish stance. Panamax The Panamax market carried forward its constructive tone, with the BPI timecharter average rising by $502 to close at $16,865. Gains were supported by strong coal and grain demand from both Atlantic and Pacific basins. North Atlantic trans-Atlantic trips commanded rates into the $20,000s, while EC South America remained well supported, though some charterers stepped back as the week progressed. In Asia, firmer bids emerged on the back of NoPac grain flows and Australian coal demand, keeping sentiment buoyant. Period fixtures also remained active, with rates between $14,500 and $16,000 concluded. Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Handysize-Specific Notes Trade & Infrastructure Developments Trump Administration Orders “Stop Work” on 80% Installed Offshore Wind Farm The U.S. Department of the Interior ordered a halt on Ørsted and BlackRock’s Revolution Wind project, already 80% complete, citing national security concerns. The project, with 45 of 65 turbines installed, was scheduled to begin supplying 704 MW of power by 2026. The decision highlights growing uncertainty for offshore wind under the Trump administration, with potential legal proceedings underway and further reviews announced on turbine manufacturing. Kenny Vieth on Today’s Market: “I Wish I Had Better News” At the 2025 MEMA Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, ACT Research President Kenny Vieth highlighted the impact of tariffs and inflation on U.S. fleets. Rising steel, aluminum, and copper costs have pushed tariffs to 18.6%, with freight volumes declining amid weak manufacturing and housing demand. Spot rates remain flat, profitability is at its weakest since 2008–2009, and recovery is not expected before mid-2026. Analysts stress that fleets should prepare buffers and adapt supply chains while long-term replacement demand continues to build. Outlook

Agri- Commodities 18-22/08/25 : Monday Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates. Tuesday Tuesday’s WASDE delivered exactly that, confirming record U.S. corn and soybean yields. The sharp acreage shift in favor of corn left the report particularly bearish for that market, sending corn and wheat futures to fresh contract lows. Soybeans, however, rebounded strongly as the smaller planted area offset yield increases. Additional pressure came from China’s imposition of a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola imports, a move that is expected to reshape oilseed trade flows. Meanwhile, Sovecon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 85.2 mmt, reinforcing ample global supply expectations. Wednesday By midweek, soybeans extended their rally with a third consecutive strong gain, fueled by the acreage shock and expectations that August yield estimates could be revised lower later in the season. Corn and wheat managed modest rebounds after heavy selling, though gains were limited. European markets grappled with contrasting conditions—France reported improved crop quality, while Lithuania declared a state of emergency after excessive rains. In South America, Argentina’s corn outlook was clouded by pest pressure in the north despite plans to expand plantings. Thursday Thursday saw soybeans abruptly reverse lower as the lack of tangible Chinese demand undermined bullish sentiment. Corn prices appeared to stabilize ahead of the closely watched Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Wheat diverged, with MATIF finding support from euro weakness and German and French quality data, while U.S. futures softened. Strong U.S. export sales helped limit losses, while Brazil’s CONAB lifted its corn forecast to 137 mmt, underscoring abundant supply. Friday Markets ended Friday on firmer footing, led by corn, which gained over 2% on short covering ahead of the Trump–Putin summit and the start of the Crop Tour. The Alaska summit, however, was widely seen as a geopolitical win for Russia, leaving uncertainty for Ukraine and broader trade relations. Soybeans drew support from NOPA’s stronger-than-expected crush data, while positioning data showed funds actively reducing shorts in soybeans but adding to wheat exposure. In the background, harvest progress in Ukraine and strong production prospects in Australia highlighted the resilience of global grain supplies.

Weekly Freight Recap: 21/08/25 (1): Overview The dry bulk freight market ended the week on a firmer note overall, with gains in the Atlantic supporting Panamax and Supramax indices, while Handysize sentiment strengthened across both hemispheres. The Pacific remained softer for Panamax, but Supramax and Handysize showed relative balance with selective firmness. Handysize Atlantic: The Handysize market showed a more positive development overall, with both North and South Atlantic regions recording stronger numbers. Fresh inquiry in the North supported firming sentiment, particularly for grain runs into northern Europe and fronthaul activity from South America. In the Continent–Mediterranean, balance in the tonnage-to-cargo ratio shifted slightly in favor of owners, giving a firmer tone to fixtures. South America saw steady demand, particularly for short-haul regional business as well as fronthaul voyages, with sentiment improving into the weekend. Market participants noted that overall activity levels were healthier than in recent weeks, which contributed to a more optimistic outlook. Pacific: In Asia, the market remained broadly balanced with little fresh news. Sentiment held steady as cargo supply and tonnage availability were largely aligned, resulting in limited volatility. There was no significant change in momentum, though some owners managed to secure firmer returns on selective business. Period activity also surfaced, suggesting that some charterers see value in securing longer-term cover at current levels, lending confidence to the market. While not as dynamic as the Atlantic, the Pacific retained a steady footing, with the broader tone supportive of stability. Supramax Atlantic: The Supramax market displayed a mixed picture in the Atlantic, with a clear divide between North and South. The US Gulf was relatively active, with positional demand driving firmer sentiment, particularly on transatlantic business. However, some brokers considered fronthaul levels to be near a peak, with limited further upside. The South Atlantic was steadier but less dynamic, with a shortage of fresh inquiry restricting further gains despite undercurrents of support from upcoming grain stems. In the Continent–Mediterranean, the market remained balanced yet lacked clear momentum, with activity varying considerably across sub-regions. The overall tone was one of relative stability but without decisive movement in either direction. Pacific: In Asia, the Supramax sector held a healthier undertone compared with Panamax. The Pacific basin maintained a firmer tone, supported by steady flows from Southeast Asia and Australia. Chartering interest in the Indian Ocean was less robust, creating some downward pressure, particularly for longer voyages into Asia. However, regional demand from Indonesia and Australia kept market sentiment broadly steady, with levels considered sustainable in the short term. Overall, the Pacific reflected a firmer sentiment compared to the previous week, even if Indian Ocean activity showed signs of easing. Panamax Atlantic: The Panamax market in the Atlantic was buoyed by a more constructive tone this week, with firm support from grain and mineral demand. The North Atlantic was led primarily by fronthaul activity, particularly for coal and grain movements into Asia, while shorter mineral runs also recorded stronger sentiment as fresh inquiry replenished the market. Transatlantic business remained less visible but stable, underpinned by Baltic coal lending some balance. From South America, demand for September arrivals continued to underpin the market despite a slightly slower pace compared to the previous week. Rates in this region trended higher across most arrival dates, with sentiment holding steady on the back of healthy forward coverage. Overall, the Atlantic showed better resilience, with steady inquiry supporting market balance even as tonnage availability built up. Pacific: In contrast, the Pacific returned a softer performance. The tonnage list continued to lengthen, and while activity levels out of Australia and Indonesia were steady, the weight of available vessels placed pressure on sentiment. A temporary push in the region midweek failed to gain lasting momentum, and fixtures eased slightly as charterers held the upper hand. Cargo flow remained present, but not sufficient to absorb the tonnage overhang, leaving the basin fragile and lacking clear direction. The market here remains vulnerable, with sentiment fragile despite healthy demand fundamentals from Southeast Asia.

Agri- Commodities 11-15/08/25 : Monday Grain markets experienced another volatile week as political developments, trade disputes, and bearish USDA data drove sentiment. Early in the week, soybeans surged on speculation that Chinese buying might resume following Donald Trump’s extension of tariff pauses, but corn and wheat failed to follow. Export inspections painted a mixed picture, with corn and soybeans performing well while wheat lagged. The USDA’s August WASDE loomed large over the market, with traders bracing for higher yield estimates. Tuesday Tuesday’s WASDE delivered exactly that, confirming record U.S. corn and soybean yields. The sharp acreage shift in favor of corn left the report particularly bearish for that market, sending corn and wheat futures to fresh contract lows. Soybeans, however, rebounded strongly as the smaller planted area offset yield increases. Additional pressure came from China’s imposition of a 75.8% anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola imports, a move that is expected to reshape oilseed trade flows. Meanwhile, Sovecon raised its Russian wheat forecast to 85.2 mmt, reinforcing ample global supply expectations. Wednesday By midweek, soybeans extended their rally with a third consecutive strong gain, fueled by the acreage shock and expectations that August yield estimates could be revised lower later in the season. Corn and wheat managed modest rebounds after heavy selling, though gains were limited. European markets grappled with contrasting conditions—France reported improved crop quality, while Lithuania declared a state of emergency after excessive rains. In South America, Argentina’s corn outlook was clouded by pest pressure in the north despite plans to expand plantings. Thursday Thursday saw soybeans abruptly reverse lower as the lack of tangible Chinese demand undermined bullish sentiment. Corn prices appeared to stabilize ahead of the closely watched Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Wheat diverged, with MATIF finding support from euro weakness and German and French quality data, while U.S. futures softened. Strong U.S. export sales helped limit losses, while Brazil’s CONAB lifted its corn forecast to 137 mmt, underscoring abundant supply. Friday Markets ended Friday on firmer footing, led by corn, which gained over 2% on short covering ahead of the Trump–Putin summit and the start of the Crop Tour. The Alaska summit, however, was widely seen as a geopolitical win for Russia, leaving uncertainty for Ukraine and broader trade relations. Soybeans drew support from NOPA’s stronger-than-expected crush data, while positioning data showed funds actively reducing shorts in soybeans but adding to wheat exposure. In the background, harvest progress in Ukraine and strong production prospects in Australia highlighted the resilience of global grain supplies.

Weekly Freight Recap: 14/08/25: Overview The dry bulk market presented a mixed performance this week, with the Supramax segment edging higher, Handysize holding steady with minor gains, and Panamax showing a regional split — weaker in the Atlantic, firmer in the Pacific. Seasonal factors, selective cargo flows, and varied regional imbalances defined the tone. While sentiment in certain basins remains constructive, broader momentum is uneven, leaving the market in a cautious but watchful stance. Handysize The Handysize sector stayed largely on its existing trajectory, with the 7TC average adding $53 to close at $12,417. In the Atlantic, the Continent–Mediterranean area firmed slightly as demand outpaced supply, even with the holiday season limiting some activity. The South Atlantic, however, maintained a lacklustre tone amid subdued fresh enquiry. In the U.S. Gulf, rates continued to firm, though fixtures remained closely guarded, keeping transparency low. Asia was stable overall, though northern areas saw a build-up of prompt tonnage, putting slight downward pressure on sentiment, while the south held steady. Supramax The Supramax market maintained a broadly positive tone, with the 11TC average up $86 to finish at $16,887. Gains in the Continent–Mediterranean were underpinned by modest scrap cargo flows, while the U.S. Gulf held steady despite some talk of the market being “toppy.” The South Atlantic lagged, with enquiry levels failing to match supply. In Asia, demand improved both north and south, with Indonesian coal and Australian mineral cargoes adding some momentum. Fixtures included the Sophiana (61,620 dwt, 2016) fixing at $19,250 for a coal trip to WC India, and the Avery Point (63,607 dwt, 2025) taking $14,750 for a trip via Cockatoo Island to Western Australia. Panamax The Panamax sector saw diverging fortunes. The Atlantic continued to soften under the weight of limited fresh enquiry, slow grain and coal volumes, and a growing tonnage list, particularly on transatlantic and ECSA routes. Fronthaul demand showed only tentative signs of life. Conversely, the Pacific strengthened, supported by steady Indonesian coal flows to China and renewed Australian activity. Tight tonnage lists in the south allowed for some premiums on prompt positions, with the Melia (76,225 dwt, 2005) reportedly securing between $16,500 and $17,000 for an Indonesian run to South China. Nonetheless, spot tonnage still discounted when missing ideal laycans. The BPI timecharter index slipped $17 to close at $14,342. Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Trade Disruption & Security Watch Red Sea Risk Continues No major escalation reported this week, but vessel operators remain wary of routing decisions given the ongoing security risks and elevated insurance premiums in the Bab-el-Mandeb region. Southeast Asia Piracy Watch Incidents in the Singapore and Malacca Straits remain elevated year-on-year, sustaining operational vigilance among owners and operators transiting the area. Outlook

Agri- Commodities 04-08/08/25: Monday Markets opened the week with mixed results. The front MATIF milling wheat contract posted strong gains, supported by historically large remaining open interest from funds. In contrast, corn futures fell to new lows, pressured by expectations that the USDA will align with private analysts in sharply increasing US corn yield estimates. Tuesday Wheat and corn faced renewed selling pressure, with several contracts hitting fresh lows. MATIF December wheat settled below the key psychological threshold of €200—a level not breached by December futures in over four years. Wednesday US wheat prices showed early signs of stabilizing as the recent decline improved competitiveness for US-origin supplies. CBOT corn and soybeans continued to slip, weighed down by non-threatening US weather forecasts and ongoing Chinese avoidance of US imports. The weakening US dollar further eroded EU export competitiveness. Thursday Grains staged a rebound from oversold levels, driven by short covering and bolstered by strong US export sales data. Open interest in September MATIF wheat fell sharply as funds actively closed or rolled positions, giving the front contract an additional lift. Friday Grains ended the week on the defensive, surrendering part of Thursday’s gains amid caution ahead of a pivotal week. Global attention remained fixed on the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. Fund positions stayed net short across the board, with limited concern over global supply prospects for the 2025/26 season. However, short covering remains a risk.

Weekly Freight Recap: 7/08/25 : Overview The dry bulk market presented a muted performance this week, with limited shifts across the main segments. Handysize remained largely flat amid quiet conditions in both the Atlantic and Asia. Supramax showed more positive sentiment, especially in the U.S. Gulf and South Africa, although broader momentum was still fragile. Panamax experienced some regional improvement, particularly in Asia and EC South America, though overall activity remained inconsistent. Handysize The Handysize market saw a slow start, with minimal reported activity and flat sentiment. The benchmark index slipped slightly, and rate levels softened across most regions. The Continent and Mediterranean continued to lack fresh demand, while the South Atlantic remained subdued, showing no new enquiries. The U.S. Gulf also stayed quiet, adding slight pressure to an already calm market. As the week progressed, the market remained broadly unchanged. Activity levels in Europe and South America held steady but thin. The U.S. Gulf showed a bit more movement, with a few fixtures concluded, including a Gulf-to-Europe grain run and a trip to South Brazil. However, details remained limited, and these did not suggest any broader momentum shift. In Asia, market sentiment stayed neutral, with limited updates and stable rate levels despite a possible increase in tonnage availability. Supramax The Supramax segment showed signs of renewed strength, led by firmer demand in the U.S. Gulf and encouraging signals from South Africa. The average index rose modestly, supported by stronger numbers being discussed on both transatlantic and fronthaul routes. Several U.S. Gulf-based grain fixtures helped lift sentiment, with reported rates in line with recent improvements. Although the Mediterranean remained quiet, improved levels in larger Panamax segments may have contributed to a slightly firmer tone. In the east, the market remained steady. While fixing was limited, owner sentiment improved as better numbers circulated, especially out of South Africa, and more period enquiries emerged. One fixture from Southern Africa to China reportedly included a sizeable ballast bonus, reflecting renewed interest in longer haul routes. Overall, fundamentals appeared more supportive, particularly for owners with prompt positions in active loading zones. Panamax The Panamax market offered a mixed picture this week. While the index posted a slight gain, activity was uneven across basins. Most of the action centered around EC South America, where forward demand supported sentiment. However, a large supply of available vessels continued to cap rate improvement. Northern Atlantic routes remained largely inactive, with limited fresh cargo emerging. In the Pacific, conditions became more dynamic mid-week. Growing demand from Australia and Indonesia, alongside firming FFA values, helped drive modest gains. Owners were more confident, and some held back offers, sensing a possible uptrend. Period interest also increased slightly, contributing to a more optimistic tone in the East. Despite the long tonnage list, a cautious shift toward positive sentiment began to take shape, especially for longer duration employment. Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Handysize-Specific Notes Port & Logistics Disruptions Evergreen Ship Loses Boxes, Closing Callao Port for Hours On August 1, Peru’s Port of Callao suspended operations for several hours after an Evergreen containership lost around 50 containers while anchored in heavy fog, amid warnings of tsunami activity linked to a Russian earthquake. No injuries or hazardous cargo were reported. Recovery began the same day, marking the second container loss incident in the region in a matter of days. Freight Market’s ‘Holding Pattern’ Continues in July July’s Logistics Managers’ Index showed modest growth in transportation capacity (52.6), with prices and utilization continuing to rise. Smaller and upstream firms reported the strongest inventory gains, keeping warehouse costs elevated. Despite this, analysts warned that unless capacity growth slows, the freight market is unlikely to see a stronger recovery in the near term. Outlook

Agri- Commodities 27-1/08/25 : Monday opened with pressure across CBOT markets as favorable U.S. weather and Argentina’s cut to export taxes weighed on soybeans and corn, pushing both further below key psychological thresholds of $10 and $4, respectively. A new EU–U.S. trade agreement failed to lift agricultural prices but contributed to a sharp decline in the EUR/USD, offering direct support to MATIF wheat. U.S. wheat futures remained mostly unchanged. Tuesday saw MATIF wheat reverse course, giving back most of Monday’s gains despite a weaker euro. U.S. futures declined across the board amid sustained expectations for strong domestic corn and soybean yields. Market participants remained cautious ahead of ongoing U.S.–China trade talks, which were expected to yield limited progress. The Federal Reserve was also in focus, with rate decisions and commentary anticipated to influence currency and commodity markets. Wednesday brought a mixed session as wheat markets diverged; CBOT edged up while MATIF slipped again, reflecting the ongoing drop in the EUR/USD and concerns over slow harvest progress in Europe. Soybeans fell for the eighth straight session, while corn steadied somewhat in quiet trade. Month-end positioning emerged as a potential driver of fund activity. Thursday marked a poor end to July for grains, with December contracts in both MATIF and CBOT wheat hitting new lows. Soybeans extended their decline amid frustration over lackluster progress in U.S.–China negotiations. However, nearby corn and Kansas wheat futures posted gains, buoyed by new U.S. export sales. Friday opened August on a bearish note, with financial markets reacting to updated U.S. import tariffs and weaker-than-expected jobs data. The broader selloff spilled into agricultural markets, driving further losses in wheat and corn. Soybeans were the only exception, closing unchanged.

Weekly Freight Recap: 31/07/25 : Overview The dry bulk market remained largely unchanged this week, with some segments showing increased activity but overall sentiment staying flat. Handysize saw support in Asia driven by limited tonnage and schedule disruptions. Supramax rates continued to decline across most regions amid weak enquiry. Panamax softened further, pressured by oversupply and subdued demand in both Atlantic and Pacific basins. Handysize The Handysize segment recorded a slightly more active session, though fundamentals were stable compared to previous days. In the Atlantic, the Continent and Mediterranean continued to trend flat due to a lack of fresh demand. The U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic remained under pressure, with oversupply of tonnage limiting activity and pushing rates lower. In Asia, the market held up more firmly. A shortage of vessels in the North Pacific combined with weather-related disruptions caused scheduling delays. This prompted some charterers to secure prompt tonnage at higher levels. Fixtures included the Viyada Naree open in Lanqiao being placed on subjects for a trip to the south, and the Port Alberni open Zhoushan fixing to Southeast Asia. A 41,000 dwt vessel open in CJK also fixed a trip to the Arabian Gulf for a minimum 65-day period, including scrubber benefits to owners. Sources noted limited fresh period interest in the basin, though sentiment stayed comparatively resilient. Supramax The Supramax market saw no notable improvement, with most routes continuing to decline. Atlantic markets remained positional, with reports suggesting the U.S. Gulf may be reaching a floor. The South Atlantic faced limited demand, forcing owners to accept lower levels. Fixing activity in these regions remained minimal despite a few tentative inquiries from operators. In Asia, the situation was mixed. Southeast Asia retained some demand, while northern areas saw less enquiry. Fixtures included the Honever linked to a trip to the Continent-Mediterranean, the Nami One fixed for a trip to Bangladesh with clinker, and the Darya Vidya fixed for a grains run from Australia to Japan. On the period side, the Bellina Colossus open Barranquilla was heard placed on subjects for a five-month trip with Swires. Overall, the market lacked momentum, with owners waiting for more consistent spot opportunities or forward guidance. Panamax Panamax rates continued to soften in both basins. In the Atlantic, there was limited fixing in the North Atlantic. The market saw growing pressure on owners as charterers hesitated, and EC South America demand remained muted. Fixtures included the Ultra Margay retro Rotterdam fixed via Newport News to Amsterdam with coal. Reports of new cargo emerged slowly, with a few deals being quietly negotiated in the background. In the Pacific, market momentum remained weak. Cargo flows from the North Pacific and East Australia were subdued. The Nefeli C open Bahudopi failed on a 2/3 leg trip. A Kamsarmax was fixed from Visakhapatnam for a trip from South Africa to India. The One Energy was fixed for a NoPac round with minerals. On the cargo side, Canpotex fixed a TBN for potash from Vancouver to India. Despite steady interest on select routes, the overall supply-demand imbalance limited any upward traction in rates. Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Handysize-Specific Notes Trade & Infrastructure Developments US Rail Merger Proposal Aims to Link East and West Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have announced a $72 billion plan to merge, aiming to create America’s first transcontinental freight railroad. The combined network would enable uninterrupted cargo movement from the U.S. East Coast to the West Coast. Regulatory approval is still required. Industry voices raised concerns over potential service disruptions and reduced competition, while the companies emphasized efficiency and expanded access. US–South Korea Trade Deal Includes Shipbuilding Cooperation South Korea secured a trade agreement with the United States just before a tariff deadline. The deal includes a $350 billion investment fund, with $150 billion allocated to shipbuilding collaboration. The agreement avoids the previously threatened 25% tariff and instead imposes a 15% rate on South Korean goods. LNG purchases and industrial cooperation are also included. The agreement specifically mentions shipyard construction, supply chain renewal, and workforce training in the U.S. Outlook Looking ahead, key focus areas include:

Agri- Commodities 25-27/07/25 : Monday opened with broad losses across CBOT and MATIF markets, spurred by fund selling and forecasts for widespread Midwest rains. Corn and soybeans weakened amid rapid U.S. and Russian harvest activity, while wheat was dragged down by rising export competition and easing weather concerns. Crop reports showed Russia’s Stavropol region nearing harvest completion, with a national forecast of 135 million tons for 2025. Meanwhile, Brazil’s AgRural raised its corn output forecast, and the EU’s MARS projected a 6% year-on-year increase in soft wheat yields, strengthening bearish fundamentals. Tuesday saw wheat rebound sharply on both sides of the Atlantic after Russia trimmed crop and export estimates, boosting September futures. Additional support came from active wheat tenders from Tunisia and South Korea. In contrast, corn and soybeans extended losses as U.S. growing conditions remained highly favorable. Crop ratings reflected this optimism, with corn conditions hitting a nine-year high. Meanwhile, EU customs data confirmed weak export volumes, and Brazil’s July corn exports slipped from the prior week, signaling broader global softness. Wednesday brought renewed selling pressure, with corn falling for a third consecutive session and soybeans slipping further following China's plans to cut hog production. Wheat retreated alongside the euro’s strength and lingering Russian competition. Despite earlier optimism, traders booked profits amid ongoing supply abundance. Futures data showed non-commercial participants increasing their net short on MATIF wheat, signaling a more defensive positioning. Thursday delivered a temporary lift in CBOT corn and wheat, helped by strong U.S. export sales and active trade from South Korean buyers. Soybeans also edged higher, aided by technical buying. However, MATIF grains extended losses, maintaining export-friendly levels despite limited upward momentum. USDA export data revealed over 2 million tons in weekly grain sales, with additional private sales of U.S. corn to South Korea reinforcing short-term demand support. Friday ended the week on a weak note, with all major grains easing. Favorable U.S. weather and trade uncertainty weighed on soybeans, while corn and wheat lost ground amid bearish sentiment and strong global supply. MATIF wheat closed the week down over 3%, undermined by a firm euro and Germany’s harvest concerns. The week concluded with updated USDA sales to Mexico and South Korea, though these were insufficient to reverse the downward momentum.

Weekly Freight Recap: 24/07/25 : Overview The dry bulk market remained mixed this week, with Handysize holding steady under regional variations, Supramax softening further in the Atlantic while maintaining relative stability in Asia, and Panamax showing broader signs of caution and positional softening. Limited fresh demand across key Atlantic load regions, combined with a lack of forward cargo visibility, weighed on sentiment, while Asia displayed firmer fundamentals in the smaller sizes but remained subdued for larger segments. Handysize The Handysize market saw another session of mixed activity, with sentiment largely shaped by positional dynamics. The Continent and Mediterranean remained balanced with minimal rate changes, while the U.S. Gulf showed a more active fixing environment yet without meaningful upward momentum. In Asia, the market held a firmer tone despite lower fixing volumes. Tighter vessel availability in Southeast Asia and the North Pacific encouraged charterers to raise their offers. For example, the Link Amici (34,398 dwt, 2015), open in Lanshan, was fixed for a trip from North China to Malaysia at $13,250 with GEL. Overall, regional dynamics supported a slightly positive sentiment. Supramax The Supramax segment continued to face downward pressure in the Atlantic, with little new demand from the U.S. Gulf or EC South America. Owners adjusted expectations lower to secure coverage, while limited fresh fixing information from the Mediterranean and Continent suggested muted momentum. In contrast, Asia held relatively steady, supported by steady demand and stable fundamentals. The Indian Ocean market maintained its levels despite a slight reduction in activity. Notable fixtures included the Panemorfi (61,430 dwt, 2013) for a fertiliser run to the U.S. Gulf in the low $20,000s, and the Captain Lucas (63,686 dwt, 2025) fixing at $15,000 to $15,500 for an Australian round trip. Coastal India also saw activity, with the Bulk Castor (66,624 dwt, 2015) fixed for $17,000. Panamax The Panamax market continued its cautious trajectory, with the BPI timecharter average correcting by $40 to close at $17,142. Sentiment across both basins remained fragile, with limited fresh inquiry and hesitant charterers keeping rates in check. Early support in the Atlantic from fronthaul demand in the North Atlantic was offset by subdued activity in EC South America, where rising ballast tonnage and limited fresh inquiry weighed on rates. The FFA market reflected this cautious mood, keeping charterers defensive. In the Pacific, Indonesian cargoes offered some support, but mixed signals and a few failed post-fixture deals softened overall sentiment. Notable fixtures included the Bulk Croatia on a U.S. Gulf to Skaw–Gibraltar trip, and the ASL Venus fixed for a U.S. East Coast to India voyage at around $29,000. Rates for NoPac rounds and EC Australia trips remained under pressure, with some vessels fixing in the mid $12,000 to $16,500 range. Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Indian Ocean & Middle East Gulf Port & Trade Policy Developments Ghana Port Transparency Rules Welcomed The Chamber of Freight Forwarders and Traders in Ghana praised the central bank’s new directive mandating port service providers to publicly display daily exchange rates used for billing. The policy, effective July 22, aims to enhance transparency, reduce inconsistent port charges, and lower operational costs for importers and exporters. Shipping lines, terminal operators, and freight forwarders must now publish official rates online and in physical offices before invoicing. India Modernises Maritime Documentation India’s Parliament cleared the Bills of Lading, 2025 bill, replacing the 169-year-old legislation with a modern, globally aligned framework. The reform introduces legal recognition for electronic Bills of Lading (eBLs), reduces paperwork, and streamlines port documentation processes. Industry stakeholders welcomed the move, citing its potential to boost logistics efficiency, cut transaction costs, and align India’s maritime trade practices with international standards. Outlook Looking ahead, key focus areas include:

Agri- Commodities 14-18/07/25: Monday opened with early optimism in wheat markets after Algeria issued a major tender. However, prices quickly reversed, and wheat futures closed lower, with September MATIF leading the retreat. The widening U/Z spread underscored weak nearby demand. Corn also started poorly, hitting fresh lows before bargain buying helped prices stabilize. But the crop progress report released after the close confirmed strong U.S. corn conditions, reinforcing expectations for a sizable harvest. Tuesday brought a notable turnaround in MATIF wheat, supported by Algeria’s sizeable wheat purchase and a weaker euro. Chicago wheat lagged, as dollar strength kept U.S. exports uncompetitive. Corn traded both sides of unchanged before posting minor gains, while soybeans came under renewed pressure following improved U.S. crop ratings that diminished weather-related support. Wednesday saw soybeans shift to the lead, bolstered by a USDA flash sale and confirmation of a U.S. trade deal with Indonesia, a key soybean buyer. This demand-side boost also helped lift corn, which logged a third consecutive day of gains. Wheat futures remained mixed, struggling for direction in the face of persistent global supply pressure and lackluster international buying. Thursday extended the soybean rally, with futures climbing to a one-week high on technical buying and strength in soyoil. Corn reversed lower, pressured by weak old-crop export sales and the ongoing expectation of a large U.S. harvest. Wheat futures dropped to new lows, with global supplies weighing heavily. MATIF wheat managed small gains, supported by continued euro weakness. Friday finally brought a broader rally across the grain complex. Hot, dry weather returned to the U.S. Midwest forecast, raising concerns about stress during critical crop development stages. Soybeans jumped nearly 3%, touching a two-week high on renewed concerns over yield potential. Corn posted solid gains on fears around pollination, while wheat rebounded slightly on short covering and ongoing quality concerns in parts of Europe due to excessive rainfall. As the new week begins, the market is positioned for increased volatility. With weather firmly back in focus and traders awaiting fresh export data and July supply updates, the next few sessions will be critical in determining whether Friday’s strength was a turning point—or just a temporary reprieve in a still-bearish environment.

Weekly Freight Recap: 17/07/25: Overview The dry bulk market showed a mixed but largely stable performance this week, with Supramax and Handysize segments maintaining upward momentum, while Panamax experienced mid-week softening after an initially firm start. Sentiment across the Atlantic and Pacific varied, with positional dynamics and forthcoming grain flows playing a key role in shaping rate direction. Handysize The Handysize market continued its gradual recovery, with the BHSI closing higher at 647, reflecting a $136 increase in the 7TC average, now at $11,945. In the Atlantic, demand in the Continent and Mediterranean improved modestly, leading to a more balanced environment. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf both showed early signs of recovery, driven by new cargo inquiries and a tightening tonnage list. Meanwhile, the Asian market remained upbeat, supported by healthy cargo volumes and limited tonnage availability, which sustained upward pressure on rates. Period activity included the ES Honesty (37,052 dwt, 2014) open Dammam fixing for a short period at $12,500, though further details were limited. Supramax Momentum in the Supramax segment remained positive, with the 11TC average rising by $353 to reach $16,620. In the Atlantic, the North Atlantic stayed firm on the back of tight tonnage availability, while EC South America also saw some improvement in demand, though actual fixing activity was limited. Owners in the Continent and Mediterranean maintained firmer ideas, supported by prompt demand in the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic. In Asia, the market held steady despite a widening bid-offer gap on some routes. Backhaul interest continued to draw tonnage northward, and the Indian Ocean saw steady inquiry with a tightening list, underpinning bullish sentiment. On the period front, the Clipper Belle (61,411 dwt, 2014) open Balboa reportedly failed for a one-year period in the mid-teens with Intergis, with no further details emerging. Panamax The Panamax market experienced a two-phase week, starting firm but softening by mid-week. The BPI timecharter average posted a $214 correction, ending at $17,700. Early in the week, the Atlantic Basin remained supported by tight tonnage and strong grain-driven demand, particularly in the North Atlantic and ECSA. However, sentiment turned softer mid-week as bid-offer spreads widened and fixture activity slowed, with charterers pulling back amid weaker FFA signals. In the Pacific, the market appeared flat initially, with some positional strength on favorable deliveries. However, as the week progressed, rates also softened despite steady underlying demand. Rising tonnage availability and negative paper sentiment pressured owners to narrow their ideas. Market conditions are currently positional, with forthcoming grain activity from South America likely to heavily influence both Atlantic and Pacific trends. Regional Pulse Atlantic Basin Pacific Basin Handysize-Specific Notes Trade & Payment Disruptions Russian Importers Hit by VTB Account Freezes, Disrupting China Trade Unexplained freezes on accounts at VTB and its Shanghai branch are disrupting one of the last direct payment channels between Russia and China. This forces importers to reroute payments through other Russian banks charging higher fees or use payment agents that add administrative hurdles and complicate participation in tenders and contracts. Bank staff have been unable to resolve the issue, leaving businesses without clear guidance or solutions. Looming US Trade Tariffs Could Disrupt Optical Industry The US plans tariff increases starting August 1 and 12, affecting many countries with rates between 20% and 40%, and over 55% for China. These tariffs challenge manufacturers, distributors, and retailers by impacting global sourcing, pricing, margins, and logistics. Uncertainty remains over enforcement and product-specific changes, while industry groups continue to monitor developments and provide guidance Outlook Looking ahead, key focus areas include:

Agri- Commodities 07-11/07/25: Monday: Grain markets fell on favorable U.S. weather and better crop ratings. Corn dropped to a one-week low; wheat declined as harvest reached 53%. Soybeans were steady, supported by strong export demand and positioning ahead of pollination. USDA data showed higher corn and soybean export inspections, including firm soybean export demand. New corn sales to Mexico and a wheat agreement with Indonesia also added to the day’s developments. Market watched updated crop ratings, fund moves, tariffs, and EU trade data. Tuesday: Grains continued lower on strong harvest progress and improved crop outlook. Corn neared 2025 lows with best crop ratings since 2018. Soybeans and wheat weakened amid non-threatening weather and negative fund sentiment. Slight recovery started in overnight trading. Wednesday: Markets were mixed. Corn bounced slightly from lows on short covering, soybeans dropped for the third day. CBOT wheat was nearly flat, while Euronext wheat firmed on euro weakness and light farmer selling. Funds cut rapeseed longs and added wheat shorts. Focus turned to U.S. export data and Friday’s WASDE report. Thursday: Wheat led gains on tight Russian exports and pre-WASDE positioning. MATIF wheat jumped over 2%; CBOT wheat followed. Corn was steady to higher on good U.S. sales and Brazil’s revised harvest. Soybeans rose from multi-month lows thanks to short covering and pre-report positioning. Friday: Grains slipped to end the week, erasing some or all of Thursday’s gains. The USDA WASDE report initially offered support for corn, but markets remained cautious as expectations for strong U.S. yields continue to build, with more clarity expected in upcoming reports. Soybeans and wheat also eased amid light profit-taking and broader market uncertainty. Additionally, renewed trade tensions weighed on sentiment, with President Trump threatening new tariffs over the weekend, adding another layer of pressure to an already cautious market environment.

Weekly Freight Recap: 10/07/25: Overview The dry bulk market posted a largely positive performance this week, with firmer sentiment in the larger sizes and a generally steady tone in the smaller segments. Gains were most prominent in the Panamax and Supramax markets, while the Handysize sector remained relatively flat. Global market dynamics continued to reflect seasonally-driven movements, persistent tightness in certain regions, and broad support from FFA activity. Handysize The Handysize market remained steady, with no notable directional shift. The BHSI closed at 640, reflecting only a marginal $17 increase in the 7TC average, now at $11,520. Across the Atlantic, limited fresh inquiry kept activity restrained. The Continent and Mediterranean both showed minimal movement, while the South Atlantic held firm in the absence of notable changes in cargo volume or tonnage availability. In the U.S. Gulf, pressure persisted due to lower levels of prompt demand, placing strain on available units. Meanwhile, the Asian market continued to operate on balanced fundamentals, with supply and demand well-aligned — resulting in mostly sideways rate action. Supramax Momentum remained positive in the Supramax segment, with the 11TC average rising by $326 to reach $14,548. Gains were reported across all major routes, albeit with limited visibility on actual fixture levels. Owners were increasingly confident, bolstered by firming FFA sentiment and steady demand from key loading areas. In the Atlantic, both transatlantic and front-haul routes saw upward rate adjustments, driven by a combination of reduced tonnage and improving cargo availability. While the U.S. Gulf drew mixed opinions — some sensing a potential rate ceiling — sentiment on the whole remained upbeat. In Asia, strong backhaul interest and consistent coal and mineral flows from Indonesia and Australia supported bullish undertones. Though visibility was limited, the tone across the basin leaned optimistic, with players holding back from premature rate concessions. Panamax The Panamax market surged this week, led by significant activity in the Atlantic. The BPI timecharter average posted a sharp $4,693 gain to close at $14,590 — reflecting tight tonnage lists and persistent demand from both ECSA and North Atlantic origins. Transatlantic and front-haul routes were particularly firm, with owners meeting improved bids with greater resistance. The strength in the Atlantic had a knock-on effect across Asia, helping to lift sentiment in the previously subdued Indonesian and Pacific rounds. Despite a slightly less aggressive tone than in the west, NoPac demand remained reliable, and the pull of firm period interest allowed owners to remain optimistic. Across the board, Panamax owners appeared more bullish, with FFA support further validating upward expectations for late Q2 and early Q3. Regional Pulse Pacific Basin - Strong gains on transatlantic and front-haul routes - Tight tonnage in North Atlantic and ECSA - Period interest and FFAs further supporting momentum Pacific Basin - Indonesian and Australian demand stable - NoPac volumes holding; owners reluctant to discount - Rate support driven more by Atlantic spillover than local dynamics Handysize-Specific Notes - South Atlantic and Continent steady - U.S. Gulf still facing demand softness - Asia balanced, but with little growth momentum Trade Disruption & Security Watch Red Sea Attacks Escalate The security situation in the Red Sea has deteriorated, with attacks on commercial vessels intensifying. A Greek-operated ship was struck by sea drones and small boats, leading to injuries and damage, including to onboard communications. This marks the first coordinated multi-vessel attack since late 2023. These disruptions continue to affect global routing decisions and raise insurance and delay risks for vessels transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait toward the Suez Canal. Pirate Activity Surges in Southeast Asia The Singapore and Malacca Straits have seen a significant increase in pirate incidents, with 57 of the 90 global attacks this year occurring in these waters, per the IMB. While most cases involve low-level theft, the sheer volume represents a 50% rise year-on-year. Given these straits handle around 30% of global trade, the uptick poses a material risk to safe navigation and crew welfare in one of the world’s most important chokepoints. Outlook Looking ahead, key focus areas include: - Panamax period interest as FFAs continue to support Q3 premiums - Atlantic transatlantic tightness likely to persist into late July - Asia-Pacific sentiment contingent on Indo loadings and return demand - Security developments in the Red Sea and SE Asia, with potential for broader impact if insurance premiums climb further

Agri- Commodities 30-04/07/25: Monday The week began with growing consensus that the USDA’s upcoming acreage revisions will have minimal impact on U.S. corn and soybean supply estimates. This outlook kept prices largely steady in those markets. Wheat continued to face pressure, with September and December MATIF milling wheat futures falling to new contract lows before recovering slightly, supported only by the lack of fresh bearish information from the USDA. Tuesday Corn prices declined following a surprisingly positive update on U.S. crop conditions, which reinforced expectations for strong yields and weighed on the market. Soybeans closed the session essentially unchanged amid a cautious atmosphere. Wheat futures in the U.S. moved higher, though European MATIF wheat tested new contract lows again. The rising euro posed increasing challenges for European exporters, further dampening wheat market sentiment in the region. Wednesday Ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday, grain and oilseed markets saw a notable rebound. Corn and wheat futures each climbed nearly 3%, while soybeans gained over 2%, driven by bargain buying and technical support. Euronext wheat also edged up on a weaker euro, despite ongoing bearish sentiment. Speculators increased short positions in MATIF wheat and cut back long holdings in rapeseed, reflecting cautious positioning in European markets. Thursday Trade was mixed on Thursday as market participants adjusted positions before the extended holiday weekend. Corn and soybeans made modest gains, supported by export demand and weather concerns. Wheat retreated after two days of gains, pressured by advancing harvest and risk reduction ahead of the break. Euronext wheat rose on short covering and a softer euro, though fundamental factors remained weak. Friday With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, European trade set the pace. Euronext wheat futures eased due to a firmer euro, ongoing harvest progress, and sluggish export demand. Upon reopening, CBOT wheat dropped more than 3%, reaching a one-week low amid intensified harvest pressure globally. Corn and soybeans fell about 1.3% each as improving weather lifted yield expectations. Attention now turns to updated U.S. crop ratings, the delayed CFTC report, and the USDA WASDE report scheduled for next Friday.

Weekly Freight Recap: 03/07/25 : Panamax The Panamax market held broadly steady this week, though signs of softening began to emerge toward the close, particularly in areas where prompt tonnage began to outpace fresh demand. Across the Atlantic, sentiment remained cautious as uncertainty over true market levels led to widening gaps between owners and charterers, particularly for forward cargoes off the Continent and East Coast South America. Fronthaul cargoes continued to underpin activity, but volumes need replenishing to sustain current rate stability. Further south, activity eased slightly, reflecting softer bids and more flexible owners. In Asia, the market opened the week mixed but gradually softened as charterers gained confidence and owners began to face resistance, especially on forward dates. Australian coal remained a supportive factor, but elsewhere in the Pacific, activity quietened. Overall, the market felt delicately balanced, with replenishment of cargo volumes seen as critical to maintaining momentum in the weeks ahead. Mid-week saw quiet conditions persist, with negative sentiment continuing in the east. Activity from the Atlantic remained limited, while rates reported from East Coast South America stayed largely flat. The BPI timecharter average posted a seventy-four dollar loss to publish at thirteen thousand four hundred twenty-four dollars. Period news included rumours of the Shandong Xin Ze, an eighty-two thousand one hundred twenty-five deadweight vessel built in 2025 for CJK 15/20 July, being placed on subjects by Reachy for period, although further details remained confidential. Supramax The Supramax market held firm despite a lack of significant fresh enquiry, with the Atlantic showing slightly more positivity, while Asia had a slower start and the Indian Ocean remained quiet. Sentiment in the Atlantic stayed broadly supportive, with brokers reporting stronger numbers being exchanged from both the U.S. Gulf and South America, which indicated renewed confidence. The Continent and Mediterranean remained finely balanced with limited fresh enquiry, partly due to many participants travelling for various shipping events. In Asia, the market showed modest improvement as some sources pointed to an uptick in fresh enquiry alongside a reduction in prompt tonnage. Stronger rates were reported on certain routes, particularly those from South Africa. One Ultramax was reportedly fixed for delivery in Southeast Asia, a trip via Indonesia with redelivery East Coast India, at a rate of fourteen thousand dollars, though further details were not disclosed. By the close of the day, the eleven-timecharter average had risen by one hundred sixty-eight dollars to finish at thirteen thousand thirty dollars. Handysize The Handysize market remained subdued, with limited reported activity. The BHSI held steady at six hundred thirty-two, while the seven-timecharter average slipped by seven dollars to close at eleven thousand three hundred sixty-eight dollars. Across the Continent and Mediterranean, activity stayed muted and sentiment largely positional, with rates continuing to track previous fixtures. The U.S. Gulf maintained a soft tone, pressured by prompt tonnage and limited enquiry. In the South Atlantic, fixtures were concluded at levels close to last done, and some sources suggested that the ongoing lack of fresh demand could result in a potential drop in rates over the coming days. From Asia, limited fresh information emerged. While there were indications that the tonnage count was ticking down slightly, the available cargo volume was not enough to meaningfully lift the market. As a result, rates continued to be recorded around last done levels. Among the few reported fixtures, the Lefkes, a thirty-three thousand three hundred ninety-eight deadweight vessel built in 2014, was placed on subjects for a trip delivery Rio Grande to redelivery Venezuela at nineteen thousand five hundred dollars by Orient, with further details remaining undisclosed.

Agri- Commodities 23-27/06/25 : Monday The week began with a geopolitical reset after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. While not formally confirmed by both sides, the perceived de-escalation quickly removed the risk premium that had temporarily lifted prices the previous week. This shift refocused market attention on bearish fundamentals, particularly ample global supply and weak demand indicators. U.S. crop ratings showed a mixed picture, with corn conditions declining by 2 percentage points and wheat ratings falling across the board. Meanwhile, the EU’s MARS raised its wheat yield forecast, bolstered by strong expectations in Southern and Eastern Europe. Russian FOB wheat prices firmed slightly, but U.S. export inspections and fund positioning revealed a broadly defensive tone. Tuesday Tuesday brought more of the same, as wheat faced heavy selling and CBOT corn tested contract lows. A large U.S. corn sale to Mexico provided a temporary lift, but expectations of record Brazilian corn production—estimated at over 140 mmt—quickly erased those gains. Despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, a strong EURUSD weighed on EU exports. Wednesday By midweek, the market had fully retreated to pre-conflict levels. September CBOT corn and MATIF wheat both posted new contract lows, as the market struggled to find supportive drivers. U.S. confirmation that the Mideast conflict was "over for now" further diminished safe-haven interest. Russian crop prospects continued to improve, and speculators resumed selling after a short-lived bout of short covering the previous week. Thursday Thursday’s session extended the slide, with bearish momentum intensifying on the back of numerous production upgrades. IKAR and the IGC raised their Russian and global wheat forecasts, respectively, while the European Commission lifted its soft wheat, barley, and maize estimates. Disappointing U.S. weekly export sales and a persistently strong EURUSD added further pressure, especially for EU-origin wheat. Friday Friday finally saw some stabilization, as traders squared positions ahead of Monday’s USDA stocks and acreage reports. Corn led the recovery on short covering, with soybeans and wheat following modestly. Statistics Canada’s lower-than-expected canola and wheat acreage figures lent some support, while FranceAgriMer data confirmed stable French crop conditions. Funds continued adjusting positions—reducing shorts in wheat and trimming longs in soybeans—highlighting the nervous anticipation surrounding upcoming U.S. data.

Weekly Freight Recap: 26/06/25: PANAMAX The Panamax market continued to show resilience this week, holding around the USD 12,800/day level on the 5TC index. Gains were seen across both basins, driven by steady demand and tightening tonnage in key loading areas. In the Atlantic, sentiment remained firm — particularly in the North — where front-haul activity added pressure to already thinning tonnage lists. The South also saw healthy premiums for later positions, though limited fixing data kept clarity subdued. The Pacific followed suit, with continued strength out of Australia and Indonesia helping to lift rates. NoPac rounds and Indonesian trips drew decent support, especially for well-positioned, modern units. While underlying cargo volumes haven’t expanded significantly, the balance between supply and demand remains supportive, and overall sentiment going into next week is cautiously optimistic. SUPRAMAX The Supramax market posted modest gains this week, led by a more active Pacific. Indonesia and NoPac demand helped maintain upward pressure, with owners showing more resistance in rate discussions. The Atlantic remained mixed — the US Gulf saw softer sentiment amid limited enquiry and growing prompt supply, while the South Atlantic was more stable, underpinned by fronthaul interest and a tighter list. Some improvement was also noted in the Continent-Med region, though still far from robust. Period activity surfaced again, particularly in Asia, suggesting improving confidence in the near-term market direction. The 11TC average ended the week at USD 12,567, reflecting a cautiously firmer tone. HANDYSIZE The Handysize market stayed broadly positive, with the South Atlantic and US Gulf continuing to offer the most support. Fresh demand and thinning tonnage helped drive some upward movement, while the Continent and Mediterranean remained subdued with flat activity levels. The Pacific market remained steady, with slight increases in cargo flow keeping rates firm and owners generally holding ground. Positional sentiment continues to play a key role, and while gains were not significant, the tone remains constructive. The 7TC index climbed to USD 11,401 by week’s end, supported by a healthier overall balance in the Atlantic.

Agri- Commodities 16-20/06/25: Monday Monday opened with wheat and corn giving back gains from the prior session, pressured by generally favorable U.S. crop outlooks. Corn conditions improved to 72% good-to-excellent (G/E), aligning with last year’s level, while soybean ratings declined to 66% G/E. Winter wheat condition unexpectedly slipped, and harvest progress remained significantly delayed. Export inspections showed continued strength for corn, while soybean oil surged on tighter-than-expected NOPA stocks. Geopolitics hovered in the background as Iran signaled a desire to avoid escalation with Israel, while Turkey offered to mediate talks. Tuesday On Tuesday, U.S. wheat futures found support amid the drop in winter wheat ratings and risk positioning ahead of the Juneteenth holiday. Traders were influenced by both fundamentals and mounting geopolitical uncertainty, as former President Trump voiced support for ending negotiations with Iran. Algeria’s wheat tender reaffirmed the Black Sea’s export competitiveness, securing around 550k tons at stable prices, mostly from Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU wheat exports edged higher, though line-up data suggests a more substantial pace than official numbers indicate. Wednesday Wednesday saw wheat futures rally over 4% in the U.S. and nearly 3% in Europe, fueled by fund short covering, adverse Russian crop headlines, and war-related concerns. A state of emergency in drought-hit Krasnodar amplified Russian supply concerns, while heavy speculative short positions in MATIF wheat underpinned the rally. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates steady, but the economic outlook was clouded by the administration’s trade policies and rising geopolitical tensions. Thursday Thursday’s holiday-thinned session saw quieter trade, though geopolitical risk remained front and center. Markets digested reports that President Trump was giving diplomacy two more weeks before deciding on military action against Iran. Iran, in turn, warned of potential retaliation and threatened the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Argentine wheat planting accelerated, while harvests for soy and corn continued, though rains have delayed corn progress. Friday Friday closed the week with broad declines across grain futures. Russia raised its wheat production outlook to 90 mmt for 2025, while France saw a slight deterioration in wheat conditions. U.S. export sales showed decent volumes, particularly for old crop soybeans. The key development over the weekend was the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite the gravity of the strikes, the immediate market reaction was surprisingly restrained, suggesting traders are awaiting Tehran’s next move.

Weekly Freight Recap: 19/06/25: PANAMAX Atlantic: The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of plateauing this week, with reduced spot activity prompting concerns of near-term softening. North Atlantic visibility remained limited, with owners and charterers continuing to disagree on rate expectations, leading to a widening bid-offer gap. Meanwhile, the South Atlantic retained some strength on prompt transatlantic demand, but later positions faced downward pressure amid fewer fresh inquiries. Although some fronthaul deals were concluded at solid levels, the overall tone was cautious, and sentiment appeared to be shifting slightly weaker. Pacific: In Asia, the market displayed a two-tier dynamic. Pockets of firmness persisted, driven by steady Japanese tender demand and East Australian export activity. However, these were counterbalanced by an oversupply of tonnage in other areas and a lack of momentum from Indonesia. Rates for shorter trips were preferred by some owners reluctant to commit to longer grain voyages amid uncertainty. Overall, while some trades continued to yield respectable returns, sentiment has turned more tentative, with the 5TC index correcting downward. SUPRAMAX Atlantic: Supramax activity in the Atlantic remained uneven, with the South Atlantic and US Gulf offering relative support. Some fixtures indicated steady demand and firmer sentiment, especially for transatlantic and inter-American routes. However, limited fresh enquiry in the Continent and Mediterranean continued to cap any broader upward movement. Despite mixed feedback, most participants viewed the region as more resilient than Asia, and owners retained some optimism heading into the next week. Pacific: The Pacific Supramax market continued to face headwinds, though sentiment varied by sub-region. Southeast Asia and the North Pacific remained quiet, with ample tonnage availability and slow cargo flow. However, a marginal uptick in Indian Ocean and Indonesian coal enquiries led to firmer resistance from some owners. Still, most market players described activity as flat, with rates holding steady at best. Fixing remained selective, with few period deals and most owners preferring spot opportunities. HANDYSIZE Atlantic: The Handy market posted another firm performance, particularly in the South Atlantic and US Gulf, where strong demand and tightening supply pushed rates upward. Charterers were increasingly forced to raise bids, while owners became more selective. Fixtures in the region reflected robust fundamentals, with transatlantic and fronthaul runs drawing healthy interest. In contrast, the Continent and Mediterranean remained subdued, with minimal fresh inquiry and flat sentiment. The Atlantic overall continues to offer stronger support compared to other basins. Pacific: Activity in Asia picked up slightly, with some signs of balance returning. The tonnage list remained manageable, and while rates were steady rather than rising, brokers noted an uptick in cargo volumes, especially for Southeast Asia delivery. Market participants maintained a mixed outlook, with no clear momentum shift yet, but some confidence emerging. Period interest was noted in both Atlantic and Pacific, though longer durations remained limited in volume.

Agri- Commodities: 9-13/6/25 : Monday Grain markets were pulled in opposing directions throughout Week 24, as favorable crop prospects, geopolitical shocks, and U.S. policy developments generated volatile trading. The week opened with a sharp sell-off in corn and wheat, as improved U.S. crop conditions and benign weather forecasts reinforced expectations of ample supplies. Corn and wheat both fell more than 2% on Monday, effectively wiping out prior gains. U.S. crop ratings surprised to the upside, with corn at 71% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. Concurrently, stronger forecasts for Russian and Romanian wheat harvests added further pressure, while China’s surging soybean imports – largely sourced from Brazil – highlighted its continued pivot away from U.S. origin. Tuesday Tuesday brought more bearish sentiment to wheat, as global weather outlooks remained favorable and buyers hesitated to commit. EU soft wheat exports rose modestly, and Bulgaria’s wheat crop was projected to match or exceed last year’s if good weather persists. A key geopolitical development emerged from London, where the U.S. and China agreed “in principle” to ease export controls, though the deal lacked agricultural purchase commitments. U.S. inflation data released later in the day suggested a potential shift in macroeconomic sentiment, but had limited immediate effect on grain trade. Wednesday On Wednesday, grains remained range-bound in anticipation of the USDA’s June WASDE report. The absence of any agricultural trade pledges in the new U.S.–China deal was disappointing for markets, especially for soybeans. The June CPI data, however, came in cooler than expected, strengthening the euro and capping the dollar – a development that could support U.S. grain competitiveness abroad. In South America, Argentina’s wheat outlook was slightly trimmed, but sentiment remained positive. Non-commercial positioning also hinted at shifting fund sentiment in European wheat and oilseeds. Thursday Thursday’s WASDE release proved largely uneventful, leading to further price erosion. However, escalating Middle East tensions after Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities drove oil prices sharply higher, lending support to grains and oilseeds via inflation and energy-cost channels. The EU’s crop body COCERAL issued an upward revision for soft wheat and barley output, although corn forecasts declined. In Brazil, Conab raised both corn and soybean production estimates. U.S. weekly export sales underperformed expectations, highlighting tepid international demand. Friday Markets closed the week on a bullish note. Wheat futures jumped over 3% on Friday amid geopolitical risk and short-covering. Soybeans rallied as soybean oil hit limit up following the Trump administration’s proposed record-high biofuel blending mandate for 2026, which favored domestic production and stirred optimism for soy demand. Funds adjusted their positions accordingly, increasing longs in soybeans and cutting shorts in wheat. Meanwhile, North African demand showed renewed life with Tunisia purchasing 100k tons of milling wheat and Algeria entering the market with a fresh tender.

Weekly Freight Recap: 12/06/25 : PANAMAX Atlantic: The Panamax Atlantic market strengthened further, particularly in the North where limited tonnage availability led owners to raise offers. Charterers showed some resistance, but firmer bids began to appear, hinting at further upside. Fronthaul demand remained a key driver, while the South Atlantic appeared more mixed with less momentum. Overall, the northern part of the basin provided the strongest support, keeping sentiment buoyant. Pacific: In Asia, confidence improved across the board. Consistent coal demand out of Indonesia and Australia helped clear prompt vessels, with rates trending upward. Despite some variation across trades, the overall tone was firm. Owners pushed for higher levels as enquiries grew, widening the bid-offer spread. Market participants remained cautiously optimistic heading into the new week. SUPRAMAX Atlantic: The Supramax Atlantic market stayed quiet, though select pockets such as the US Gulf showed signs of strengthening. South America also gained attention, yet fixing activity was still limited. Brokers noted an uptick in enquiries but reported few concluded deals. Sentiment held steady, with owners hoping tighter tonnage may soon support firmer rates. Pacific: Asia remained under pressure. Vessel oversupply and thin cargo availability kept rates from advancing, despite a few isolated fixtures. Indonesian coal trades continued to set the tone, but the wider market lacked momentum. Owners remained defensive, though signs of stability appeared by week’s end, particularly in Indian Ocean-related trades. HANDYSIZE Atlantic: The Handy market in the Atlantic was balanced overall. The Continent and Mediterranean saw little change, with rates largely in line with recent fixtures. The South Atlantic held steady, while the US Gulf remained more active and benefited from strong cargo flows. The region continued to provide relative support to the broader segment. Pacific: Asia saw muted activity, with market participants reporting a growing list of open ships. While demand remained weak, rate levels were mostly steady. Few fixtures emerged, and no major shifts in sentiment were observed, keeping the Pacific market in a holding pattern.

Agri- Commodities: 2-6/6/25 : Monday Grain markets opened June on a mixed footing, with wheat futures initially rallying on renewed geopolitical fears following escalations between Ukraine and Russia. However, the rally soon fizzled as U.S. crop progress data turned sentiment more bearish. Spring and winter wheat condition ratings exceeded expectations, with plantings and harvests advancing steadily. Meanwhile, USDA export inspections showed strong corn loadings, but soybeans and wheat lagged. Tuesday Tuesday brought a modest recovery for corn and soybeans, driven in part by expectations of renewed dialogue between U.S. and Chinese leaders. Wheat futures remained volatile as market participants reacted to developments in the Black Sea region. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry forecast a 10% drop in grain production for 2025, adding supply-side uncertainty. Globally, the OECD projected slowing economic growth through 2026, while inflation pressures persist. Meanwhile, a covert attack on the Kerch Bridge underscored the persistent risk premium in Black Sea logistics. Wednesday Midweek trading was defined by choppy action and short-covering in European wheat markets. MATIF wheat once again hovered above the key €200 level, supported by an increasingly dangerous net short held by funds and mounting war tensions. Notably, Putin reportedly warned Trump of retaliatory measures after Ukrainian drone strikes. On the policy front, traders awaited the ECB’s decision with expectations of a 25 bp rate cut, signaling a potential easing bias amid sluggish eurozone growth. Thursday Thursday saw broad-based gains, with soybeans lifted by positive sentiment following a phone call between Presidents Trump and Xi. The ECB’s dovish stance further supported the complex, although MATIF wheat underperformed. Weekly U.S. export sales landed within expectations, and USDA data confirmed solid early wheat commitments for the new marketing year. Algeria’s wheat import forecast was trimmed due to shipment delays, while the ECB signaled it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle, softening the euro’s bounce against the dollar. Friday On Friday, wheat led a week-ending rally, bolstered by pre-weekend short-covering and lingering geopolitical risk in the Black Sea. French wheat conditions slipped slightly, reflecting spring dryness, with implications for final yields. The U.S. dollar strengthened after a robust jobs report, tempering expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, grain traders turned their attention to next week’s key events: U.S.–China trade talks, CPI data, and dual USDA and CONAB updates. Speculative positioning revealed increased bearishness in corn and soybeans, while wheat shorts remained broadly unchanged.

Weekly Freight Recap: 05/06/25 : PANAMAX Atlantic: The Panamax Atlantic market showed signs of a strong rebound, especially in both the North and South where firmer bids and tightening tonnage contributed to rising sentiment. Fixtures suggested that some charterers may have overplayed their hand, triggering a jump in rates. Grain cargoes out of EC South America remained a key driver, with premiums being paid for prompt tonnage. Overall, sentiment improved significantly, and next done levels are expected higher. Pacific: In Asia, activity picked up slightly, though the market remained mixed. The wide bid-offer spread continued to cause hesitation, but sentiment improved somewhat thanks to increased exports from South America. Regional holidays slowed progress earlier in the week, but rate levels held steady overall, supported by minor improvements in coal cargo flows SUPRAMAX Atlantic: Supramax activity in the Atlantic was subdued overall, with the Continent-Mediterranean seeing minor improvement while the South Atlantic and US Gulf stayed under pressure. Some isolated fixtures were reported, such as cement trips into the US Gulf, but the overall market tone remained flat. Support pockets emerged from specific trades, though tonnage oversupply limited any meaningful upward push. Pacific: Asia remained weak, with little change in market dynamics. Holiday-related slowdown and a muted cargo book continued to weigh on sentiment. Few fixtures were reported, and rates stayed broadly unchanged, reflecting lack of fresh demand and persistent vessel oversupply. HANDYSIZE Atlantic: The Handysize Atlantic market was relatively balanced. While the Continent and Mediterranean held flat, a slight improvement was observed in the South Atlantic due to tightening tonnage. The US Gulf showed ongoing momentum, supported by fresh cargoes and fewer available vessels. Several fixtures showed rates holding or trending upwards, especially into the Mediterranean. Pacific: The Pacific Handy market remained stable. Conditions were steady, but growing vessel supply relative to demand kept rates flat. Some salt and mineral cargoes were reported, though no significant shift in fundamentals occurred. Fixtures showed limited rate movement despite ongoing interest from charterers.

Agri- Commodities: 26-30/5/25 : Monday Monday opened quietly in Europe as U.S. markets remained closed for Memorial Day. MATIF wheat traded lower in thin volumes, but losses were limited by concerns over dry conditions in France and rising temperatures in Russia. The May JRC MARS Bulletin painted a mixed EU crop outlook, nudging soft wheat yield estimates slightly higher but trimming rapeseed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical noise grew louder with President Trump mulling new sanctions against Russia, and Germany lifting range restrictions on Ukrainian strikes using Western weapons. Tuesday Tuesday brought a sharp selloff in wheat, sparked by anticipation of improved U.S. crop ratings and favorable European weather updates. However, post-close data upended that narrative: U.S. winter wheat ratings unexpectedly fell, and spring wheat condition ratings debuted far below expectations at just 45% G/E. Corn and soybeans followed wheat lower intraday but showed mixed closes, supported by subdued planting progress and crop condition metrics that came in below trader estimates. EU wheat exports continued to climb, though soft demand in international tenders suggested headwinds remain. Wednesday Midweek, wheat attempted a recovery on the back of disappointing U.S. crop data, but gains were quickly erased as updated forecasts promised more rainfall in drought-hit France. Corn and soybeans declined further, pressured by favorable planting pace and weather. Positioning data revealed a notable short-covering in MATIF wheat and continued buying in rapeseed. The European Commission revised up its wheat and barley production outlooks but trimmed maize estimates, reflecting uneven weather impacts across the bloc. Thursday On Thursday, wheat posted fresh contract lows on MATIF before mild bargain-buying helped it claw back modest gains. Markets digested a significant U.S. court ruling limiting President Trump’s tariff powers, which sent equity markets surging but failed to meaningfully support grain prices. India announced a record wheat harvest, likely eliminating its need for imports in the next marketing year. Corn continued to slump amid persistent fund pressure and weak technicals. Friday Friday closed the week on a cautious note. Corn and soybeans extended their losses, weighed down by benign weather and growing U.S.-China trade tensions. Minneapolis spring wheat found support on continued concerns over crop quality. French wheat ratings dipped slightly but remain strong historically. Export sales were solid for wheat but underwhelming for soybeans, while fund positioning showed limited movement, with net shorts persisting in corn and wheat. President Trump’s announcement of tariff hikes on steel and aluminum reignited market fears of a broader trade confrontation, capping a volatile month that ended with MATIF wheat likely posting its third straight monthly decline.

Mads Frank Markussen joins the IFPRI-AMIS panel on what's driving food commodity markets 2026: Our Head of Freight Research & FFA, Mads Frank Markussen, joined the IFPRI-AMIS panel "Weather, Money, and Shifting Bets: What's Driving Food Commodity Markets?", co-organized by IFPRI and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and moderated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The panel brought together economists, crop specialists, and market analysts to unpack the forces shaping today's markets, with Mads contributing the freight and shipping perspective. Over the course of the discussion, the panel covered questions including:

International Wheat Industry Conference 2024, Brazil: Will Latin American countries continue to increase import of Russian wheat? Our colleague Indrek Aigro shared valuable insights at the Abitrigo Conference on shifting import and export trends in Latin America. Key Topics Covered: Good afternoon. I have never seen such a large audience at 3:30 in the afternoon! It’s a big effort to be here, and I take it as a compliment. I'll do my best not to disappoint you. I’m from Copenhagen Merchants, where I head the brokerage division. Our team works across many regions around the world, including an office in São Paulo focused on the Latin American markets. With over 20 years in this business, I, like every trader, identify with a specific crop. For me, it’s wheat. So, being here in Brazil, a major wheat-importing nation, feels like the right place to be. Brazil is crucial not only for its wheat imports but also as a diversified agricultural hub. I’m here to discuss the other side of the picture: the Eastern Hemisphere. Brazil’s export capacity is growing, with promising opportunities to expand production, especially with new GMO varieties and improved yields. But simultaneously, imports are increasing across the whole region. Given this is a media conference, I'll focus on imports into Brazil and Latin America, rather than exports, although my company handles both. I believe everyone here shares a common goal: to combat food inflation. High food prices hurt everyone—the country, the business, and the consumer. While temporary profits might arise from inflation, it generally causes more disruption than benefit. One way to combat food inflation is by diversifying our sourcing, giving us access to a variety of origins based on cost-effectiveness, availability, and quality. Different wheat origins bring unique characteristics, and today’s global volatility demands flexibility in sourcing. We see this trend globally—in Africa, Asia, and here in Latin America. Now, let me show you the state of wheat imports across Latin America. This region has a huge purchasing power, importing about 20 million tons of wheat annually. Argentina contributes around 3.5 to 5 million tons each year, with the U.S., Canada, and now the Eastern Hemisphere, especially Russia, increasing their shares in the market. Over the last 20 years, Latin America’s wheat consumption has grown by almost 10 million tons, with production largely keeping pace. But increased local production in Brazil doesn’t necessarily mean fewer imports, as wheat grown in South Brazil often heads to markets in Africa and Asia. This means more trade overall—both imports and exports continue to rise together. Among Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico are the top wheat importers, followed by Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. In total, the region imported around 21 million tons of wheat this past season, a figure that’s steadily growing. This part of the world is becoming more and more relevant on the global stage. To understand agricultural trends, we have to look beyond year-on-year comparisons and examine decade-by-decade shifts. Over the past ten years, U.S. wheat exports to Latin America have declined, with Russia filling the gap. This shift seems to be a lasting trend, as the U.S. is producing less wheat each year and relying more on imports when necessary. Consequently, Brazil and Latin America must look increasingly to Eastern Hemisphere sources, adapting to different quality standards and regulatory requirements. Some of this work is ongoing, but more remains to be done. When examining Brazilian and Mexican wheat imports, in 2018-2019 Brazil imported nearly 6 million tons, while last season it was around 3 million tons due to a better crop. Although Brazilian mills in the north are adapting to alternative sources, the country's import dynamics are changing. Russia, which had no market share five years ago, now has a foothold. Meanwhile, recent BRICS meetings in Moscow emphasized ambitions to create a marketplace for BRICS agricultural commodities, possibly including a BRICS currency. The Russia-Brazil trade relationship seems to have strong support and momentum at this time. For Mexico, much of its wheat supply comes from the U.S., supported by a robust rail trade over the border. However, with the upcoming presidential elections in the U.S., some trade agreements may be at risk. If these agreements are disrupted, Russia could step in as a wheat supplier. Another developing source is the Baltic Sea, which includes regions in Germany, Poland, Latvia, and Estonia (where I’m from). The Russian Baltic region, including Kaliningrad, has a flow of about 3 million tons annually, though most of it currently goes to Mexico rather than Brazil. With proper regulatory protocols in place, Brazilian mills could potentially buy from these origins when the price is competitive. The job ahead is to establish a platform and regulatory protocols to allow Brazilian mills to buy wheat from diverse sources whenever it makes economic sense. So I think that is that is that effective for both Russian and, and, and the European Union flows and, and I that's why we see that I think we are going to I think we are going to be seeing, a lot more of it in the future. The wheat production and especially the, the wheat, exportable surplus. You see, it's been growing and, and I think that is still potential to grow in the Baltics. We, we see that, that, that wheat is definitely looking for new alternatives as a destination market. And, I think that the, the both Mexico and especially Brazil and maybe Colombia, Venezuela are gonna be the destinations where whether it is going to be quite relevant for as an area instead of having to ship it to Asia. And yeah, I mean, for the ones who are interested, the typical these are the standard, quality parameters that we are trading for, for the Baltic Sea origin. So yeah, I believe it's relatively similar to it's very high on gluten. It's very good stability on on baking and it's high on energy. So, on the Alva graph, you figure it, it always goes very high. So usually the mills like it. The double and, Germany, Poland, we see the same that where Poland is increasing a lot now and exports. And there are already specific discussions going on about the phyto protocol in Poland. To be, to make it shoot Brazilian imports. So, so this is something where we also see a lot of potential for the, for the future. The there is a specific thing in Poland. Poland is not really able to ship. Panamax is only a few Poland can ship these and supermax is only. So that means that, say 30 40,000 ton of vessels and that is the size of Brazil takes. So this makes Poland actually a very good match for Brazil. They have less alternatives to go. And the Polish German quality, which is very similar to the to the Baltic, Baltic Sea, to the Baltic qualities. And that is a slide I already showed you. Now this is the same slide, but you see where, these are the destinations of the Baltic Sea countries where they are shipping, too. It used to be Iran on top. Then it was Saudi Arabia. But now what you. I'm sorry. Press the wrong button. Yeah. So now what you see here, it's basically West Africa. There is a lot of West Africa where they go because and the and and the South America, Latin America could really fit well into, into this I believe if they, if we show the same slide again in five years, we are going to see Brazil in this list. What about the freight? Are they competitive? Is Russia competitive or is a Baltic Sea competitive to United States to, Canada on the freight? So we made, small comparison here. And you see that the, the freight actually, here we have Mexico and here we have Brazil. So, you can see that, the freight from Russia is actually higher than from alternative countries. And in the Mexican case, of course, obviously USA is by far the cheapest. But freight, as we all know, sea freight is only one element in the equation. The other element is a price of the week itself. So what happens if we combine the freight with a V price and we look at the CFR figures. This happens. So you see suddenly that that to Mexico, Russia is pretty much on par with the U.S actually these numbers, my prices are from last week. When I made the presentation yesterday, Russia U.S were exactly on the on the same par. But if you look at Brazil then this is a US wheat price. Yesterday we have then we have Baltic Sea which I mentioned. Then we have Russia here. So and then we have Romania, Romania. On the paper looks cheap, but it is not able to come to Brazil today. It's a very soft wheat. It has to go into specific destinations. I just wanted to add it as a comparison, but it's definitely something to talk about. But you see that price wise it is competitive. Well, I don't have Argentina here and I think Argentina new crop is definitely going to take the market share. So Argentinian Dynamics is that you know, the during their harvest they grab the market not only in Brazil but almost globally. And then they ship and sell everywhere. So we're going to see a big effect on energy. But however, if we're looking at the in Brazil alternatives to RG then this is a picture actually. And then I want to come back and zoom in on the Russian flows. So, Russia, what you hear in the news is or what you hear in the industry. You hear that? Okay. Sometimes, that it can be an issue on the phyto, and then the government is taking more control. So I just want to explain and elaborate a little bit on what are the trends, what are happening in Russia and how it affects, destinations and Brazilian, consumers. All the middle of the wheat. So, in Russia, use what you see today happening is that the government is taking a stronger and stronger control of the wheat exports, and the government is really saying two things. They are they are saying that the wheat they are, they are they are looking at wheat as any other natural resource of the country, like oil or gas. And they are saying, okay, because because it's a natural resource for the country, then the country has a say in how and where it should be traded, and that is certain logics in it. So they are like saying, okay, you can export as a private company, but we want to you first of all not to sell the wheat to cheap. We want you to sell it at a certain level. But for what it is worth, because they want to avoid a situation where Russians are competing with Russians and then, the wheat goes, generates a very big discount. And that is something which is, which everybody is trying to get used to today. The other thing, what, what they are saying is that they, they see it as a negative thing, that the global trading houses are buying the wheat on FOB Russia and then delivering it to various destinations. They see it as somebody who who is not Russian is, coming and eating away there some of the price. What they what they show they get themselves. It is a little bit simplistic view because we know how the commodity markets work, how it's it's a basically a big pot of soup. But but anyway, that is a view. And that means that Russian companies are today discouraged to sell FOB to international trading companies. And they are very much encouraged to go directly to destinations and go directly to mills and, and as often as usual in Russia, a lot of these things are not written. They are just kind of, known and implied. So, what it means is that we today we see that it's very hard to buy an FOB cargo in Russia for an international trader. The companies, they don't want to participate in it. They, they instead they are giving us as brokers a task saying, please go and discover us. Destination consumer buyers in Asia, in Africa, in South America and South America is a new and hot place. Looking at it from the Russian point of view, where they all see that the way they want to come. That also means from looking at it, from Brazil, it means that we believe that in the next near future, from now one, actually, we are going to see less international companies offering Russian wheat to Brazil, and we are going to see more of the Russian companies that are two Russian companies here in Rome today we have Austin and we have foods. So Austin and Rich fields are, Russian originators, Russian companies, and they are the ones who have already a clear ambition to come and sell in those markets. However, mark my words, same event next year that is going to be more than two. That's going to be eight. So, I think this is how the trend is going. The, and it is an irrevocable trend because what we always see is if originators learn that in Asian markets, if they learn the quality, their paperwork, their credit lines, their performance, if that all gets developed, their business does not go back to FOB, even if the restrictions disappear, the business stays there because they they have learned it. And and again, this is what I believe that. So I think that that what is going to happen in the next 12 months and that wheat imports, okay, we're going to have the ag show for the next couple of months. So that's fine. But the the rest of the market will wait. But once it prices back in, then we we're going to see a new names, new sellers coming, coming to those markets here and offering the wheat that takes introduction, getting to know each other and learning how to dance this, dance together. So. So I think that the, number one, I think that that is a very, strong potential in, in this business. I think that, the as I said, U.S. exports are slowly declining on the wheat. If you look at the long term trends, we see that the imports here are growing, and we see that the ability of the mills there to be more universal use, more of various origins, is increasing everywhere. And on today's volatility, it's necessary. So, we think that that gives a very big potential. And then we have the whole BRICs, countries, China, Brazil, India, and I think, that is, how this whole picture is going to evolve.

Augusto Abati talks about Brazilian crops wheat and corn markets 2024: Will wheat planting be tough for Brazilian farmers? Listen to how we discuss about the current situation in Brazilian markets, the challenges faced by local farmers, conflicting corn crop estimates, and what all this means for prices. - Hi, I'm Hendrik from CM Hamburg and I'm sitting here together with my colleague Augusto from CM São Paulo. We're here today to discuss the Brazilian crops and especially wheat and corn markets.Good morning, Augusto. How are you today? - Good morning. I am doing very well, and yourself? - Absolutely fine, thank you. Looking at the Brazilian crops, we are in the middle of the corn harvest, how's it looking currently? - Yeah, well, let's say that the first corn harvest is 80% done at this stage and the Safrinha of corn, the second harvest in Brazil is only about 2% done in the center south of Brazil So far, the conditions look good. We're not going to have a record crop like last year but everything is moving forward. We're not expecting any major changes from now on, the weather is very good in the state of Mato Grosso. We do have some problems in the state of Rio Grande do Sul but overall I believe that the numbers should stay as per the last ranges of the trade. - It does look a little different on the wheat market. So, with the flooding in the South it has a major impact on the seedings. How is it looking on the wheat? - Well, for the wheat, we're going to have a challenging year. At the State of Paraná, the conditions are fairly good. The plantings have started but the main issue in Brazil right now is the State of Rio Grande do Sul. They had the biggest weather disaster in history. Meaning that several of the areas are still flooded. We cannot even access some of those areas. We have problems with logistics, and, of course, this is affecting the plantings. Which are fairly delayed. Initially, we were working with a range over 9.5 million tonnes production and we are already talking about low 8 million tonnes. So we're going to have some massive differences from what was initially predicted in Brazil. - Speaking about the delayed plantings and the wet conditions, how do you think that will affect the quality this year if that already can be said? - I would say it's still a bit too early to say anything about the quality. - Again, we have barely started the plantings but if the conditions persist, we might have a year like the previous season. While we were expecting to export 11.5 with ANEC specs and ended up having only a feed wheat program. At this stage, I would say that the sellers in Brazil, they're also concerned about this. So they are selling 11.5 for ex harvest but also asking for an option to decrease it to feed wheat in case the conditions persist. - What does it mean for the prices? Where's the market currently? What are we talking about? - We're talking of a very high market at this stage and very far apart. I would say that the December wheat at this stage in Brazil is 280 versus 255. The sellers are in line with what we see in Argentina but as you very well know, at parity with Germany and much more expensive than what we see in Russia right now. Especially against Russia 12.5 even. - So, looking at a probably decreased production number how does it affect the import side? Is Russian wheat playing a major role in this? - Indeed they are. On the import side last year we had imports around 5.5. In the beginning of the year, we were expecting 100 million tons less, around 5.4 but right now we are already working with numbers above 6 million tons, especially given the conditions in Rio Grande de Sul. So if that does indeed materialise, it will be in favour of Russia. Argentinian wheat, at this stage 11.5 We're talking about 285$ versus 12.5 on the Black Sea around 250. So, even with the freight spread to Brazil, we would see a massive flow of Russian flowing into the country. The trade is already rumouring of at least 1 million tons traded and we believe this number will only increase from now on. - Thanks for the insights, Augusto. Coming back to the corn markets, we've briefly talked about it but the production numbers are quite diverse yet. What do you think is the reason for that? - They are indeed all over the place. On one side we have CONAB with very low estimates and on the other side we have the actual trade. Talking with other clients and partners in Brazil, we do put the production around 1.22 million tonnes. Not the low numbers of CONAB of 1.13 - 1.14 million tons. The USDA is still even higher 1.25. But considering the estimates of the trade at this stage, we would see at least 120 million tonnes being produced in Brazil. Not a record crop as last year but still fairly significant that will generate a very good export season for the country. - How does that affect the market? I mean, we are in the middle of the harvest. - Yes, the first crop now is at 80% harvested. Second crop, just about started. The market has been quiet let's say. One of the main components of last season for Brazil was China. China has been missing in action, we have not seen or heard any trades. If something was traded, it was very little in comparison to the last year. So, but even without China, we see Brazilian corn starting to calculate pretty much everywhere in the world. Via the Med, via the EU, via Southeast Asia. So we're slowly getting there that Brazilian corn is pricing in to destinations but not yet trading that much. As you might as well know, Brazil starts the heavy export as of July, August, so we're still a bit early but not many trades were done. So, we're lagging behind a normal year. - So market looks actually rather bearish and heavy, what do you think farmers have committed so far? - Very little. The farmer selling has been very much focused on the soybeans. Even though at this stage they have a very favourable USD BRL parity, to start selling, they still have a lot of soybeans to sell. So, the focus has not been the corn. We're expecting this to change any time. Could it be next week, in three weeks from now, the Brazilian corn market needs to move and we are yet to see a harvest pressure that will move those markets. - So, soon we could see a sharp drop in the harvest markets on corn, might that bring China back to the table? - It could. We are talking about the next harvest in July. At this stage we are bearish when it comes to basis. It will all depend in the end of China at this point. China was the biggest importer of Brazilian corn last season. So, without China, then of course we would have a completely different situation. - Many thanks for your insights, Augusto! - Always a pleasure!

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market 2024 - Part II: How could Russia's consolidation impact prices? In this interview, we discuss the growing influence of the Russian government in grain trading. We also discuss the global grain market and various factors such as demand, weather patterns, and the emergence of AI in trading strategies. We explore these questions further in an interview (part 2 of 2) with Dan Basse.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market 2024 - Part I: Farmers across the world are facing an uphill battle – What is the difference between American and European farmers communities? Dive into the heart of the matter – as European farmers take to the streets in protest, American farmers face a different kind of struggle, with growing concerns about their mental health based on an/with an up tap/increase in farmers suicides across the US. Wondering what lies ahead? Is the bear market finally behind us/over? Gain insights from our exclusive interview with Dan Basse.

Nikolay Gorbochov talks about the potential impact of EU restrictions 2023 - Part II: What is the potential impact the EU restrictions imposed on Ukrainian grain imports? We discuss whether these measures are temporary and highlight any reasons for EU farmers to express concerns. How critical it is to maintain a smooth flow of Ukrainian grain and what could be the potential impacts if grain exports were to halt. Additionally, alternative options to ensure the continuous movement of Ukrainian grain are discussed.

Nikolay Gorbochov talks about the extension of the grain corridor 2023 - Part I: Will the grain corridor be extended? And what are the implications if it isn't? We address this topic in an interview (Video 1 of 2) with Nikolay Gorbachov, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA)

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part III: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this third part (3 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part II: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this second part (2 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Dan Basse talks about the main challenges in the grain market - Part I: What are the crucial factors that agri-commodity traders need to monitor to stay competitive? Additionally, where do experts predict grain prices are headed in the near future? We address these topics in this first part (1 of 3) of an interview with Dan Basse, AgResource.

Mads Frank Markussen explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions: Recently, our colleague Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Freight Research & FFA, joined Felipe, Neil, and Michael on a special bonus episode of Sparta Market Outlook to dive into all things freight. Mads and the Sparta team explored the impact of Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and market inefficiencies on oil and freight trading, as well as how tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could reshape trade flows—discussed potential US-Europe tariff conflicts and why Russian sanctions have had a limited effect on dry bulk markets. The conversation covered key differences between tanker and dry bulk markets and the growing influence of emissions regulations on voyage costs across the industry. A must-listen for anyone in freight and commodities—check it out! Listen to the full podcast here:

Marc Myllerup Discuss Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat Markets: Our colleague joined a conversation with and Andreas Steno Larsen at to discuss soybeans, corn, and wheat markets. His insights highlighted challenges such as reduced wheat yields in France and Russia, and India's increased wheat imports. Marc emphasized the crucial role of weather and geopolitical factors in commodity markets, offering practical insights. He also shared how using CM Navigator, an innovative research tool, enhances market prediction capabilities, providing valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. Watch Full episode: Spotify (Start 14.20 min):

Use the Power of Historical Data: In the complex world of commodity trading, the saying "history repeats itself" serves not merely as a philosophical thinking but as a foundational principle that supports investment and trading strategies. This is particularly relevant in the context of market cycles, which are known for their tendency to exhibit patterns and behaviours that recur over time. By closely examining past market trends and cycles, traders and investors can accumulate insights into potential future movements, allowing them to make more informed decisions. This article dives into the value of historical data analysis for forecasting market trends. Historical data proves to be an indispensable tool for those who want to stay ahead of the dynamic movements of commodity- and freight markets. The strategic use of historical data in commodity trading is crucial for portfolio diversification, risk management, and the timing of market entries and exits. It enables traders and investors to utilize past market responses to various stimuli—such as economic cycles, policy changes, and supply disruptions— allowing them to effectively understand the correlation to market variables such as commodity futures, cash prices, and freight markets and thus it provides a solid foundation to analyse these market dynamics. The impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices is a key example of historical data's relevance. As an example, oil markets are significantly affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where production disruptions have historically led to sharp increases in global oil prices. By analysing episodes like the oil shocks of the 1970s or more recent conflicts in oil-producing regions, analysts can build models to better anticipate the effects of similar future incidents on commodity markets (Carter, Rausser & Smith, 2011). Furthermore, the analysis of historical freight rates serves as a critical component of the dry bulk commodity trading equation, providing insights into broader economic and logistical trends. These insights reflect the multifaceted influence of numerous factors on the markets and underscore the importance of historical data in uncovering supply-demand correlations, price elasticity, political impacts, and market sentiment over time (Barkoulas, Hu & Santos, 2008). Predictive modelling in commodity trading exceeds mere speculation, anchoring itself in the systematic interpretation of correlations of historical data. The integration of historical data allows statistical models, machine learning algorithms, and other analytical tools to uncover trends that might otherwise not be immediately apparent. Historical variables might include lagged prices, historical volatility indices, and even sentiment analysis derived from news archives. The latter approach enables the formulation of forecasts hypothesises that predict market behaviour with a higher degree of accuracy than traditional methods, as proved by Pai, Hong, and Lin (2018) in the realm of stock price forecasting. Traditional statistical modelling techniques, such as Linear Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, have long been central in forecasting commodity prices. Linear Regression offers a straightforward approach by establishing linear relationships between variables, while ARIMA models capture the temporal dependencies and seasonality inherent in time series data. These methods have demonstrated efficacy in predicting price movements across a wide array of commodities, providing valuable insights for traders, investors, and policymakers alike. However, the advent of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures has ushered in a new era of predictive modelling, offering unparalleled capabilities in capturing intricate patterns and nonlinear relationships within data. Architectures such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs), have emerged as powerful tools for forecasting grain yield and prices. (Liakos et al., 2018) However, recognizing that no model can guarantee perfect predictions, traders often employ a combination of methods to enhance forecast reliability. Fundamental analysis, which examines supply and demand factors, economic indicators, and other tangible data, complements these econometric models. By integrating various methodologies, traders can form a more holistic view of the market, preparing for a range of potential outcomes and mitigating the inherent risks of relying on a single forecasting approach. The strategic analysis of historical cash prices and freight rates is indispensable in the quest to forecast future movements in commodity markets. This comprehensive approach not only facilitates a deeper understanding of market dynamics but also equips traders and investors with the insights needed to navigate market volatility successfully and seize emerging opportunities. As commodity markets continue to evolve, the thoughtful use of historical data will remain a cornerstone of adjusting trading strategies, highlighting its value in an ever-dynamic economic and geopolitical landscape. The meticulous analysis of historical data is not just a technical exercise but a strategic imperative that leverages patterns of the past, providing a foundation upon which future decisions of commodity trading strategies are made. Barkoulas, J., Hu, A. & Santos, M.R., 2008. The Link between Commodity Prices and Commodity-Linked-Equity Values during a Geopolitical Event. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 12, p.1. Pai, P.-F., Hong, L.-C. & Lin, K.-P., 2018. Using Internet Search Trends and Historical Trading Data for Predicting Stock Markets by the Least Squares Support Vector Regression Model. Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience, 2018, p.6305246. Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., Hammoudeh, S. & Wohar, M., 2019. What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats? Energy economics, Vol.84, pp.1-14 Carter, C., Rausser, G. & Smith, A., 2011. Commodity Booms and Busts. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 3, pp.87-118. Liakos, K.G.; Busato, P.; Moshou, D.; Pearson, S.; Bochtis, 2018 D. Machine Learning in Agriculture A Review. Sensors 2018, 18, 2674.

Increased transparency in dry bulk freight markets : Traditionally, the shipping markets are characterised by a high degree of opacity and exclusivity, predominantly governed by a limited number of shipowners situated in e.g. Greece, Monaco, or Denmark, distant from the demand centres for freight services. Considering the inelastic nature of vessel supply from an economic perspective, it is advantageous for vessel owners to prefer pricing strategies based on an individual transaction basis. This approach enables shipowners to fully gauge the extent of market demand. Consequently, this method of price discovery has historically been in the favour of the freight sellers. Advancements in technology have facilitated a paradigm shift in the methodology of freight pricing. Increased transparency within the dry bulk freight markets is transforming the dynamics of the physical commodity markets. Innovations such as new freight calculators and comprehensive freight- and CFR matrices, designed specifically for the use of freight buyers, are changing the operational strategies of commodity traders. These tools have been instrumental in reducing the time required for price discovery and thus influencing the pace of the decision-making processes. This blog post explores the implications of this augmented transparency, concentrating on its impact on decision-making, risk management, market efficiency, liquidity, and the technological innovations driving these changes. In the world of commodity trading such as grains, fertilizers, cement, steel etc, the cost of freight constitutes a significant component of the CFR price and is often the deciding element of the total cost which determines the most competitive origin for a given destination. Examples of this include the transportation of corn from Brazil to China, where freight costs are approximately 20% of FOB cost (200 USD/PMT FOB and 40 USD/PMT) freight, or cement clinker from Turkey to West Africa where freight is around 50% of FOB cost (50 USD/PMT FOB and 25 USD/PMT). Historically, acquiring accurate freight rates has been a complex and cumbersome process, characterized by multiple stages, discretionary pricing, and considerable delays. This has typically represented a notable information scarcity for most commodity traders without extensive in-house freight departments. However, the introduction of online platforms providing access via websites or API to real-time data on dry bulk freight rates has started to even out the competitive landscape. These platforms provide commodity traders with comprehensive insights into the constantly moving freight markets, covering all major deep-sea routes on a global scale. A dry bulk freight matrix or calculator empowers traders with the capability to instantly evaluate shipping costs, thereby facilitating the comparison of Cost and Freight (CFR) prices to determine competitiveness at the destination. Consequently, this leads to noticeably faster and more accurate cost calculations. The capacity to programmatically examine hundreds of freight combinations changes the role of the trader, reducing the amount of time devoted to price discovery and increasing the focus on market analysis and the making of strategic decisions. The freight markets are characterized by volatility, a consequence of the inelastic nature of supply. Instances, where an oversupply of ships is observed for one week, can rapidly shift to a shortage, shortly after. An illustrative example of this volatility can be observed in the East Coast South America (ECSA) to the Mediterranean trade routes for handysize grain trades. Taking November 2023 as an example, there was a 100% increase in vessel hire rates from the beginning to the end of the month. In general, freight market volatility has increased in recent years thereby creating substantial trading opportunities. For instance, comparing the standard deviation of freight rates for Handysize vessels in 2019 and 2023, considering these years to approximate 'normal' conditions outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, reveals this increase in volatility; the Handysize Baltic Index recorded a standard deviation of 1873 in 2019 compared to 2261 in 2023, indicating a 20% increase in volatility. During the COVID years, the yearly standard deviation surged to 7355, marking a 392% increase in volatility. There is a tendency that larger vessel types show greater volatility, implying that larger standard deviations are to be expected for these vessel sizes. The incorporation of advanced analytics into an organization's proprietary data models enables commodity traders to refine their strategic approaches and enhance the accuracy of predictions, particularly for short-term forecasts applied in trading within the commodity futures market, where efficiency is critical. McKinsey & Company's report, "The Future of Commodity Trading," posits that the application of granular data in the realm of commodities trading has the potential to amplify revenues and profitability by leveraging short-term market inefficiencies. These technological innovations enable traders to make informed decisions quickly, enhancing their ability to manage risks associated with price volatility and shipping costs. Such technological advancements and increased price transparency can lead to greater liquidity. This is attributed to the lowering of barriers to market entry and the fostering of a more competitive trading landscape, as improvements in price discovery mechanisms and overall market efficiency are achieved. As the commodity trading landscape continues to evolve, the significance of technology in enhancing transparency and operational efficiency is becoming more pronounced. The availability of real-time freight information through advanced online platforms exemplifies the transformative impact of technological innovations on the industry. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the integration of machine learning and data analytics will intensify capitalizing on the growing volume of data accessible in shipping and commodity markets in the future. The trend towards increased transparency within dry bulk freight markets, driven by technological innovations, is transforming the physical commodity trading industries. Instant access to critical freight rates has not only enhanced market efficiency but also improved risk management and facilitated more informed decision-making among commodity traders. As technology continues to play a central role in the evolution of the industry, the potential for innovation remains extensive, promising a future where market participants can operate with exceptional insight and efficiency. McKinsey & Company. (n.d.). The future of commodity trading McKinsey & Company. (n.d.). Data mining for miners: Using analytics for short-term price movement forecasting

Agricultural Supply and Demand Forecasting: In the global agricultural commodity markets, the ongoing ability to follow and forecast crop progress with accuracy is not just an advantage; it's a necessity to be able to compete. The interplay of multiple factors makes the ‘supply and demand dynamics’ a complex exercise . This article touches upon how to leverage diverse and continuously updated data sourcesin supply and demand forecasting, with a focus on agricultural commodities, namely Wheat, Corn, Barley, and Soybeans. The first step in mastering agricultural commodity forecasting is acknowledging the market's complexity. This complexity arises from a blend of environmental factors, economic policies, geopolitical events, and technological advancements that collectively influence supply and demand dynamics. Weather patterns directly impact agricultural productivity, while economic and geopolitical shifts can alter market access and affect global supply chains. Technological innovations continuously reshape production capabilities and efficiencies, introducing new variables into forecasting models. Moreover, market sentiment, driven by traders' perceptions, adds a layer of unpredictability. Understanding this complex web of factors is crucial for developing accurate forecasting assumptions. Volatility is not an exception but the norm, driven by an array of factors from unexpected weather events across the globe to sudden geopolitical conflicts. Navigating the volatility, applying a diverse selection of data sources is key for a comprehensive understanding of supply and demand dynamics. The geopolitical landscape significantly impacts agricultural commodity prices, as evidenced by the recent Ukrainian / Russian war. This event spotlighted the fragility of global wheat supplies, given Ukraine's and Russia's role as major wheat exporters. The subsequent market disruption underscored the need for incorporating geopolitical analysis into market forecasting strategies. A responsive approach, leveraging real-time data on geopolitical events, enables market participants to anticipate and mitigate risks associated with such disruptions. To demonstrate how unforeseen events can trigger volatility, the fluctuating wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 2022 are highlighting the market's susceptibility to geopolitical shocks. The chart below illustrates two notable surges in price during the first half of 2022, each a reaction to significant global events. The initial surge of 50% corresponds to the outbreak of the Russian / Ukrainian war, with prices climbing sharply as one of the globe's largest grain-producing regions plunged into armed conflict. This sudden escalation reflected the market's anxiety over potential supply disruptions, triggering a spike as traders and other market participants rushed to close their short wheat positions amidst the uncertainty. The standard monthly deviation of CBOT wheat prices jumped more than 900% in March 2022. A few months later India implemented a wheat export ban which led to another spike in prices. This move by a major global wheat supplier was a response to domestic concerns but had international repercussions, restricting global supply further and driving prices up as buyers competed for the remaining accessible wheat. CBOT Wheat futures (daily continuous chart):